Cometary Origin Research Articles

Search for sulfur-bearing species as remnant of cometary impact on Neptune

We present the results of CS, OCS, H2CS, H2S, SO, C3S and SO2 observations in Neptune׳s stratosphere performed in 2010 and 2013 with the Atacama Sub-millimeter Telescope Experiment 10-m telescope in submillimeter wavebands. Several authors have suggested that CO in Neptune׳s stratosphere has an external origin and may be due to a previous large cometary impact. To investigate the effects of such impacts, we have conducted new observations to search for various sulfur-bearing species, which are possible remnant gases from the impacts. The CS molecule was likely to be found because CS was observed in Jupiter׳s stratosphere at least five years after the cometary impact event that occurred in 1994. No sulfur-bearing species was clearly detected in Neptune׳s upper stratosphere, and their upper limit abundances relative to oxygen were lower than that of both Jupiter׳s atmosphere observed after the SL9 event and small solar system bodies. From the cometary origin viewpoint, the depletion of sulfur-bearing species found here may be due to their removal from the gas phase by processes such as condensation.

Density distribution of solar wind protons and “loaded” ions in the shock layer ahead of a cometary ionosphere

We propose a simple method that allows the density fields of solar wind protons and heavy ions of cometary origin (“loaded” ions) in the solar wind-cometary ionosphere interaction region to be separated from the general density field calculated within the framework of a single-fluid model. The method is based on the assumption that the velocities of both components are identical. We analyze the density fields in the solar wind obtained in this way before and after the passage of the bow shock ahead of the cometary ionosphere and make a comparison with the distributions measured with various instruments onboard the Giotto spacecraft when it flew past Comet Halley and calculated on the basis of more complex multi-fluid models.

COSAC prepares for sampling and in situ analysis of cometary matter from comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko

The comet rendezvous mission Rosetta will be the first mission to encounter and land on a comet nucleus. After a 10-year journey Rosetta is set for rendezvous with Comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko. The mission goal is: to study the origin of comets; the relationship between cometary and interstellar material and its implications for the origin of the solar system. The Rosetta spacecraft with an overall mass of about 3000kg was launched in March 2004 and brought into cometary orbit towards comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko with 4 gravity assist maneuvers. On its way Rosetta passed and observed two asteroids, (2867) Šteins in 2008 and (21) Lutetia in 2010, respectively. In June 2011 Rosetta entered into hibernation and woke up – as planned – on January 20, 2014. In November 2014 Rosetta’s Philae lander and 10 science instruments will be deployed onto the surface of comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko. This will be followed by the first ever in situ investigation of a comet nucleus. Onboard Philae is the COmetary SAmpling and Composition experiment (COSAC), one of two evolved gas analysers that will investigate organic compounds within the material of the nucleus. Data from the COSAC instrument are expected to provide important insights into the early history of our solar system and contribute to our knowledge of small bodies that may have seeded the early Earth through impacts. In this paper we review recent developments in cometary science, including data on target comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko. We report on laboratory measurements and the calibration of the COSAC instrument as well as the preparation for operations on the nucleus of comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko.

Warsaw Catalogue of cometary orbits: 119 near-parabolic comets

Context. The dynamical evolution of near-parabolic comets strongly depends on the starting values of the orbital elements derived from the positional observations. In addition, when drawing conclusions about the origin of these objects, it is crucial to control the uncertainties of orbital elements at each stage of the dynamical evolution. Aims. I apply a completely homogeneous approach to determine the cometary orbits and their uncertainties. The resulting catalogue is suitable for the investigation of the origin and future of near-parabolic comets. Methods. First, osculating orbits were determined on the basis of positional data. Second, the dynamical calculations were performed backwards and forwards up to 250 au from the Sun to derive original and future barycentric orbits for each comet. In the present investigation of dynamical evolution, the numerical calculations for a given object start from the swarm of virtual comets constructed using the previously determined osculating (nominal) orbit. In this way, the uncertainties of orbital elements were derived at the end of numerical calculations. Results. Homogeneous sets of orbital elements for osculating, original and future orbits are given. The catalogue of 119 cometary orbits constitutes about 70 per cent of all the first class so-called Oort spike comets discovered during the period of 1801-2010 and about 90 per cent of those discovered in 1951-2010, for which observations were completed at the end of 2013. Non-gravitational (NG) orbits are derived for 45 comets, including asymmetric NG~solution for six of them. Additionally, the new method for cometary orbit-quality assessment is applied for all these objects.

Assessing the physical nature of near-Earth asteroids through their dynamical histories

We analyze a sample of 139 near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), defined as those that reach perihelion distances q<1.3au, and that also fulfill the conditions of approaching or crossing Jupiter’s orbit (aphelion distances Q>4.8au), having Tisserand parameters 2<T<3 and orbital periods P<20yr. In order to compare the dynamics, we also analyze a sample of 42 Jupiter family comets (JFCs) in near-Earth orbits, i.e. with q<1.3au. We integrated the orbits of these two samples for 104yr in the past and in the future. We find that the great majority of the NEAs move on stable orbits during the considered period, and that a large proportion of them are in one of the main mean motion resonances with Jupiter, in particular the 2:1. We find a strong coupling between the perihelion distance and the inclination in the motion of most NEAs, due to Kozai mechanism, that generates many sungrazers. On the other hand, most JFCs are found to move on very unstable orbits, showing large variations in their perihelion distances in the last few 102–103yr, which suggests a rather recent capture in their current near-Earth orbits. Even though most NEAs of our sample move in typical ‘asteroidal’ orbits, we detect a small group of NEAs whose orbits are highly unstable, resembling those of the JFCs. These are: 1997 SE5, 2000 DN1, 2001 XQ, 2002 GJ8, 2002 RN38, 2003 CC11, 2003 WY25, 2009 CR2, and 2011 OL51. These objects might be inactive comets, and indeed 2003 WY25 has been associated with comet Blanpain, and it is now designed as Comet 289P/Blanpain. Under the assumption that these objects are inactive comets, we can set an upper limit of ∼0.17 to the fraction of NEAs with Q>4.8au of cometary origin, but it could be even lower if the NEAs in unstable orbits listed before turn out to be bona fide asteroids from the main belt. This study strengthens the idea that NEAs and comets essentially are two distinct populations, and that periods of dormancy in comets must be rare. Most likely, active comets in near-Earth orbits go through a continuous erosion process in successive perihelion passages until disintegration into meteoritic dust and fragments of different sizes. In this scenario, 289P/Blanpain might be a near-devolatized fragment from a by now disintegrated parent comet.

Onset of carbon isotope excursion at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum took millennia, not 13 years

The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) may represent the best paleo-analog for rapid and massive carbon release to the ocean and atmosphere. Thus, constraining the carbon release rate at its onset is critical. Wright and Schaller (1) use records from apparently rhythmically layered shelf sediments to argue that the layering is annual and that the onset of the carbon isotope excursion (CIE, fingerprint for carbon release) in the surface ocean was complete in 13 y. Using basic carbon cycle and climate considerations, we show this is not feasible. In fact, Wright and Schaller’s isotope records indicate that the CIE onset took at least several millennia. This finding rules out a cometary origin of the carbon release.

Analysis of two superbolides with a cometary origin observed over the Iberian Peninsula

Among the most astonishing astronomical phenomena are the extremely bright bolides produced by the entry of large meteoroids into the Earth’s atmosphere. These events are rare and unexpected because current telescopic surveys are still missing meter-sized meteoroids, particularly those of dark nature and presumably cometary origin. In this work we present the analysis of two very bright fireballs of such origin recently observed over Spain. The first of these was recorded on September 25, 2010, while the second one took place on August 23, 2012. With an absolute magnitude of −18 and −17, respectively, these sporadic events fall within the superbolide category. Their atmospheric trajectory is calculated, together with the heliocentric orbit of the parent meteoroids. Other physical properties of these particles are estimated, such as their preatmospheric mass and tensile strength. The emission spectrum recorded for one of these events is also discussed. Our analysis indicates that none of these superbolides was a meteorite-dropping event. From their orbital parameters, a cometary nature for the parent meteoroids is inferred.

THE DISCOVERY OF COMETARY ACTIVITY IN NEAR-EARTH ASTEROID (3552) DON QUIXOTE

The near-Earth object (NEO) population, which mainly consists of fragments from collisions between asteroids in the main asteroid belt, is thought to include contributions from short-period comets as well. One of the most promising NEO candidates for a cometary origin is near-Earth asteroid (3552) Don Quixote, which has never been reported to show activity. Here we present the discovery of cometary activity in Don Quixote based on thermal-infrared observations made with the Spitzer Space Telescope in its 3.6 and 4.5 {\mu}m bands. Our observations clearly show the presence of a coma and a tail in the 4.5 {\mu}m but not in the 3.6 {\mu}m band, which is consistent with molecular band emission from CO2. Thermal modeling of the combined photometric data on Don Quixote reveals a diameter of 18.4 (-0.4/+0.3) km and an albedo of 0.03 (-0.01/+0.02), which confirms Don Quixote to be the third-largest known NEO. We derive an upper limit on the dust production rate of 1.9 kg s^-1 and derive a CO2 gas production rate of (1.1+-0.1)10^26 molecules s^-1. Spitzer IRS spectroscopic observations indicate the presence of fine-grained silicates, perhaps pyroxene rich, on the surface of Don Quixote. Our discovery suggests that CO2 can be present in near-Earth space over a long time. The presence of CO2 might also explain that Don Quixote's cometary nature remained hidden for nearly three decades.

Planetary perturbations for Oort cloud comets: II. Implications for the origin of observable comets

We present Monte Carlo simulations of the dynamical history of the Oort cloud, where in addition to the main external perturbers (Galactic tides and stellar encounters) we include, as done in a companion paper (Fouchard, M., Rickman, H., Froeschlé, Ch., Valsecchi, G.B. [2013b]. Icarus, in press), the planetary perturbations experienced each time the comets penetrate to within 50AU of the Sun. Each simulation involves an initial sample of four million comets and extends over a maximum of 5Gyr. For better understanding of the outcomes, we supplement the full dynamical model by others, where one or more of the effects are left out. We concentrate on the production of observable comets, reaching for the first time a perihelion within 5AU of the Sun. We distinguish between four categories, depending on whether the comet jumps across, or creeps through, the Jupiter–Saturn barrier (perihelion distances between 5 and 15AU), and whether the orbit leading to the observable perihelion is preceded by a major planetary perturbation or not. For reasons explained in the paper, we call the strongly perturbed comets “Kaib–Quinn comets”.We thus derive a synthetic picture of the Oort spike, from which we draw two main conclusions regarding the full dynamical model. One is that 2/3 of the observable comets are injected with the aid of a planetary perturbation at the previous perihelion passage, and about half of the observable comets are of the Kaib–Quinn type. The other is that the creepers dominate over the jumpers. Due to this fact, the spike peaks at only 31000AU, and the majority of new comets have semi-major axes less than this value. The creepers show a clear preference for retrograde orbits as a consequence of the need to avoid untimely, planetary ejection before becoming observable. Thus, the new comets should have a 60/40 preference for retrograde against prograde orbits in apparent conflict with observations. However, both these and other results depend on our model assumptions regarding the initial structure of the Oort cloud, which is isotropic in shape and has a relatively steep energy distribution. We also find that they depend on the details of the past history of external perturbations including GMC encounters, and we provide special discussions of those issues.

PRE-ACCRETIONAL SORTING OF GRAINS IN THE OUTER SOLAR NEBULA

Despite their micrometer-scale dimensions and nanogram masses, chondritic porous interplanetary dust particles (CP IDPs) are an important class of extraterrestrial material since their properties are consistent with a cometary origin and they show no evidence of significant post-accretional parent body alteration. Consequently, they can provide information about grain accretion in the comet-forming region of the outer solar nebula. We have previously reported our comparative study of the sizes and size distributions of crystalline silicate and sulfide grains in CP IDPs, in which we found these components exhibit a size-density relationship consistent with having been sorted together prior to accretion. Here we extend our data set and include GEMS (glass with embedded metal and sulfide), the most abundant amorphous silicate phase observed in CP IDPs. We find that while the silicate and sulfide sorting trend previously observed is maintained, the GEMS size data do not exhibit any clear relationship to these crystalline components. Therefore, GEMS do not appear to have been sorted with the silicate and sulfide crystals. The disparate sorting trends observed in GEMS and the crystalline grains in CP IDPs present an interesting challenge for modeling early transport and accretion processes. They may indicate that several sorting mechanisms operated on these CP IDP components, or alternatively, they may simply be a reflection of different source environments.

Imaging of a Circumsolar Dust Ring Near the Orbit of Venus

The gravitational interaction of dust in the zodiacal cloud with individual planets is expected to give rise to ringlike features: Such a circumsolar ring has been observed associated with Earth, but such resonance rings have not been confirmed to exist for other planets. Here, we report on sensitive photometric observations, based on imaging from the STEREO mission, that confirm the existence of a dust ring at the orbit of Venus. The maximum overdensity of dust in this ring, compared to the zodiacal cloud, is ~10%. The radial density profile of this ring differs from the model used to describe Earth's ring in that it has two distinct steplike components, with one step being interior and the other exterior to the orbit of Venus.

The Chelyabinsk superbolide: a fragment of asteroid 2011 EO40?

Abstract Bright fireballs or bolides are caused by meteoroids entering the Earth's atmosphere at high speed. Some have a cometary origin, a few may have originated within the Venus–Earth–Mars region as a result of massive impacts in the remote past but a relevant fraction is likely the result of the break-up of asteroids. Disrupted asteroids produce clusters of fragments or asteroid families and meteoroid streams. Linking a bolide to a certain asteroid family may help to understand its origin and pre-impact dynamical evolution. On 2013 February 15, a superbolide was observed in the skies near Chelyabinsk, Russia. Such a meteor could be the result of the decay of an asteroid and here we explore this possibility applying a multistep approach. First, we use available data and Monte Carlo optimization (validated using 2008 TC3 as template) to obtain a robust solution for the pre-impact orbit of the Chelyabinsk impactor (a = 1.62 au, e = 0.53, i = 3 $_{.}^{\circ}$82, Ω = 326 $_{.}^{\circ}$41 and ω = 109 $_{.}^{\circ}$44). Then, we use this most probable orbit and numerical analysis to single out candidates for membership in, what we call, the Chelyabinsk asteroid family. Finally, we perform N-body simulations to either confirm or reject any dynamical connection between candidates and impactor. We find reliable statistical evidence on the existence of the Chelyabinsk cluster. It appears to include multiple small asteroids and two relatively large members: 2007 BD7 and 2011 EO40. The most probable parent body for the Chelyabinsk superbolide is 2011 EO40. The orbits of these objects are quite perturbed as they experience close encounters not only with the Earth–Moon system but also with Venus, Mars and Ceres. Under such conditions, the cluster cannot be older than about 20–40 kyr.

An explanation of bright areas inside Shackleton Crater at the Lunar South Pole other than water‐ice deposits

AbstractWhether water molecules of cometary and/or solar wind origin migrated to and accumulated in cold permanently shadowed areas at the lunar poles has long been debated from the perspective of scientific interest and expectations for future utilization. Recently, high reflectance condition was observed inside the lunar South Pole Shackleton Crater for the 1064.4 nm of the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, and the high reflectance was explained to perhaps be due to a surface frost layer in excess of 20% water‐ice. Here we investigate the crater with the Selenological Engineering Explorer Multi‐band imager that has nine bands in the visible to near‐infrared range, including a 1050 nm band (62 m/pixel resolution). Part of the illuminated inner wall of Shackleton Crater exhibits high reflectance at 1050 nm but also exhibits the diagnostic 1250 nm spectral absorption, a signature that is consistent with naturally bright purest anorthosite.

The bright end of the exo-Zodi luminosity function: disc evolution and implications for exo-Earth detectability

We present the first characterisation of the 12um warm dust ("exo-Zodi") luminosity function around Sun-like stars, focussing on the dustiest systems that can be identified by WISE. We detect six new warm dust candidates, five of which have unknown ages. We show that the dustiest old (>Gyr) systems like BD+20 307 are 1 in 10,000 occurrences. Bright warm dust is more common around young (<120Myr) systems, with a ~1% occurrence rate. We show that a two component in situ model where all stars have initially massive warm disks and in which warm debris is also generated at some random time along the stars' main-sequence lifetime, perhaps due to a collision, can explain the observations. However, if all stars only have initially massive warm disks these would not be visible at Gyr ages, and random collisions on the main-sequence are too infrequent to explain the high disk occurrence rate for young stars. That is, neither component can explain the observations on their own. Despite these conclusions, we cannot rule out an alternative model in which comets are scattered from outer regions because the distribution of systems with the appropriate dynamics is unknown. Our in situ model predicts the fraction of stars with exo-Zodi bright enough to cause problems for future exo-Earth imaging attempts is at least ~10%, and is higher for populations of stars younger than a few Gyr. This prediction of ~10% applies to old stars because bright systems like BD+20 307 imply a population of fainter systems that were once bright but are now decaying through fainter levels. Our prediction should be strongly tested by the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer, providing valuable input for more detailed evolution models. A detection fraction lower than our prediction could indicate that the hot dust in systems like BD+20 307 has a cometary origin due to the quirks of the planetary dynamics.

The bright end of the exo-Zodi luminosity function: Disk evolution and implications for exo-Earth detectability

AbstractThis contribution summarises the first characterisation of the 12 μm warm dust (“exo-Zodi”) luminosity function around Sun-like stars, focussing on the dustiest systems that can be identified by the WISE mission (Kennedy &amp; Wyatt 2013). We use the sample of main-sequence stars observed by Hipparcos within 150pc as an unbiased sample, and report the detection of six new warm dust candidates. The ages of five of these new sources are unknown, meaning that they may be sites of terrestrial planet formation or rare analogues of other old warm dust systems. We show that the dustiest old (&gt; Gyr) systems such as BD+20 307 are 1 in 10,000 occurrences. Bright warm dust is much more common around young (&lt;120 Myr) systems, with a ~1% occurrence rate. We show that a two component in situ model where all stars have initially massive warm disks and in which warm debris is also generated at some random time along the stars' main-sequence lifetime, perhaps due to a collision, can explain the observations. However, if all stars only have initially massive warm disks these would not be visible at Gyr ages, and random collisions on the main-sequence are too infrequent to explain the high disk occurrence rate for young stars. That is, neither component can explain the observations on their own. Despite these conclusions, we cannot rule out an alternative dynamical model in which comets are scattered in from outer regions because the distribution of systems with the appropriate dynamics is unknown. Our in situ model predicts that the fraction of stars with exo-Zodi bright enough to cause problems for future exo-Earth imaging attempts is at least roughly 10%, and is higher for populations of stars younger than a few Gyr. This prediction of roughly 10% also applies to old stars because bright systems like BD+20 307 imply a population of fainter systems that were once bright, but are now decaying through fainter levels. Our prediction should be strongly tested by the Large Binocular Telescope Interferometer, which will provide valuable constraints and input for more detailed evolution models. A detection fraction lower than our prediction could indicate that the hot dust in systems like BD+20 307 has a cometary origin due to the quirks of the planetary dynamics. Population models of comet delivery need to be developed to help distinguish between different possible origins of warm dust.

A COMPOUND MODEL FOR THE ORIGIN OF EARTH'S WATER

One of the most important subjects of debate in the formation of the solar system is the origin of Earth's water. Comets have long been considered as the most likely source of the delivery of water to Earth. However, elemental and isotopic arguments suggest a very small contribution from these objects. Other sources have also been proposed, among which, local adsorption of water vapor onto dust grains in the primordial nebula and delivery through planetesimals and planetary embryos have become more prominent. However, no sole source of water provides a satisfactory explanation for Earth's water as a whole. In view of that, using numerical simulations, we have developed a compound model incorporating both the principal endogenous and exogenous theories, and investigating their implications for terrestrial planet formation and water-delivery. Comets are also considered in the final analysis, as it is likely that at least some of Earth's water has cometary origin. We analyze our results comparing two different water distribution models, and complement our study using D/H ratio, finding possible relative contributions from each source, focusing on planets formed in the habitable zone. We find that the compound model play an important role by showing more advantage in the amount and time of water-delivery in Earth-like planets.

The Oort Cloud and long‐period comets

AbstractThis review starts with a brief historical overview of the subject, after which some recent papers attempting to improve the understanding of comet injection from the Oort Cloud and the origin of new comets are discussed. Special attention is paid to the importance of nongravitational effects in comet orbit determination, the synergy between stellar encounters and the galactic tides for the injection dynamics, and the role of planetary perturbations. The field is thus shown to be advancing rapidly, and brief comments on possible implications for studying the origin of the cloud are made.

On the actual existence of the periodic and long-period comet families of Uranus

Aphelion distances of the known periodic comets in the range 12–26 AU are analyzed. The aphelia of 12 of the 38 known comets are found to be concentrated at 19.23–20.91 AU, i.e., near the heliocentric distance of Uranus, which seems unlikely to be a coincidence. It is shown by testing that there is also a significant redundancy of distant nodes of the periodic comets’ orbits in the region of motion of Uranus. This is confirmed by the analysis of the MOIDs in the comet-Uranus system. The values of the Tisserand constant for some of the comets exhibit less dispersion relative to Uranus than to Saturn, Jupiter, and the Earth. We selected 20 long-period comets with distant nodes near the region of motion of Uranus. It is shown that, given a uniform spatial distribution, there must be 12 such nodes. Considering the distant nodes and the MOIDs, the planet is likely to have a dynamical connection with the selected group of comets. The distant nodes and perihelia of both periodic and long-period comets are found to be redundant in the directions 76° and 256°, which is qualitatively consistent with the hypothesis of eruptive origin of comets.

Cosmogenic production rates and recoil loss effects in micrometeorites and interplanetary dust particles

AbstractWe present a purely physical model to determine cosmogenic production rates for noble gases and radionuclides in micrometeorites (MMs) and interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) by solar cosmic‐rays (SCR) and galactic cosmic‐rays (GCR) fully considering recoil loss effects. Our model is based on various nuclear model codes to calculate recoil cross sections, recoil ranges, and finally the percentages of the cosmogenic nuclides that are lost as a function of grain size, chemical composition of the grain, and the spectral distribution of the projectiles. The main advantage of our new model compared with earlier approaches is that we consider the entire SCR particle spectrum up to 240 MeV and not only single energy points. Recoil losses for GCR‐produced nuclides are assumed to be equal to recoil losses for SCR‐produced nuclides. Combining the model predictions with Poynting‐Robertson orbital lifetimes, we calculate cosmic‐ray exposure ages for recently studied MMs, cosmic spherules, and IDPs. The ages for MMs and the cosmic‐spherule are in the range &lt;2.2–233 Ma, which corresponds, according to the Poynting‐Robertson drag, to orbital distances in the range 4.0–34 AU. For two IDPs, we determine exposure ages of longer than 900 Ma, which corresponds to orbital distances larger than 150 AU. The orbital distance in the range 4–6 AU for one MM and the cosmic spherule indicate an origin either in the asteroid belt or release from comets coming either from the Kuiper Belt or the Oort Cloud. Three of the studied MMs have orbital distances in the range 23–34 AU, clearly indicating a cometary origin, either from short‐period comets from the Kuiper Belt or from the Oort Cloud. The two IDPs have orbital distances of more than 150 AU, indicating an origin from Oort Cloud comets.

A Model for the Common Origin of Jupiter Family and Halley Type Comets

A numerical simulation of the Oort cloud is used to explain the observed orbital distributions and numbers of Jupiter-family (JF) and Halley-type (HT) short-period (SP) comets. Comets are given initial orbits with perihelion distances between 5 and 36 au, and evolve under planetary, stellar and Galactic perturbations for 4.5 Gyr. This process leads to the formation of an Oort cloud (which we define as the region of semimajor axes a > 1,000 au), and to a flux of cometary bodies from the Oort cloud returning to the planetary region at the present epoch. The results are consistent with the dynamical characteristics of SP comets and other observed cometary populations: the near-parabolic flux, Centaurs, and high-eccentricity trans-Neptunian objects. To achieve this consistency with observations, the model requires that the number of comets versus initial perihelion distance is concentrated towards the outer planetary region. Moreover, the mean physical lifetime of observable comets in the inner planetary region (q < 2.5 au) at the present epoch should be an increasing function of the comets’ initial perihelion distances. Virtually all observed HT comets and nearly half of observed JF comets come from the Oort cloud, and initially (4.5 Gyr ago) from orbits concentrated near the outer planetary region. Comets that have been in the Oort cloud also return to the Centaur (5 < q < 28 au, a < 1,000 au) and near-Neptune high-eccentricity regions. Such objects with perihelia near Neptune are hard to discover, but Centaurs with characteristics predicted by the model (e.g. large semimajor axes, above 60 au, or high inclinations, above 40°) are increasingly being found by observers. The model provides a unified picture for the origin of JF and HT comets. It predicts that the mean physical lifetime of all comets in the region q < 1.5 au is less than ∼200 revolutions.