Combined Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Climate change shrinks environmental suitability for a viviparous Neotropical skink

AbstractAnthropogenic global warming and deforestation are significant drivers of the global biodiversity crisis. Ectothermic and viviparous animals are especially vulnerable since high environmental temperatures can impair embryonic development, but we lack knowledge about these effects upon Neotropical organisms. Here, we estimate how much of the current area with suitable habitats overlaps with protected areas and model the combined effects of climate change and deforestation on the geographic distribution of the viviparous Neotropical lizard Notomabuya frenata (Scincidae). This species ranges in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Bolivia. We use environmental and physiological variables (locomotor performance and hours of activity) to predict suitable present and future areas, considering different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation. The most critical predictors of habitat suitability were isothermality (i.e., the ratio between mean diurnal temperature range and annual temperature range), precipitation during winter, and hours of activity under lower thermal extremes. Still, our models predict a contraction of suitable habitats in all future scenarios and the displacement of these areas towards eastern South America. In addition, protected areas are not enough to ensure suitable habitats for this species. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of tropical and viviparous ectotherms and suggest that even widely distributed species, such as N. frenata, may have their conservation compromised shortly due to the low representativeness of their suitable habitats in protected areas combined with the synergistic effects of climate change and deforestation. We stress the need for decision‐makers to consider the impact of range shifts in creating protected areas and managing endangered species.

Current and future potential soil organic carbon stocks of vegetated coastal ecosystems and their controls in the Bohai Rim Region, China

Vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCEs) have much higher organic carbon sequestration rates and storage capacities than most other earth surface ecosystems, and thus play a vital role in blue carbon sequestration for climate change mitigation. However, soil organic carbon (SOC) stock assessment in VCEs at a large regional-scale remain problematic, and the controlling mechanisms for SOC remain poorly understood. Here, we estimated current and future SOC stocks of VCEs in the Bohai Rim Region, China at a spatial resolution of 10 m, using a data-driven method based on multi-source data; and investigated the key environmental and anthropogenic controls. The total SOC stocks and SOC density of VCEs in the Bohai Rim Region were estimated to be approximately 62.7 Tg carbon and about 68.8 Mg ha−1, respectively (in the upper 1 m of soil). We found that climate and soil salinity are the most critical environmental controls of SOC stocks within VCEs in the region. Increasing temperature and soil salinity would increase SOC decomposition and decrease plant productivity, resulting in a decrease in SOC stocks. Conversely, increasing precipitation would increase SOC stocks by reducing soil salinity. We projected that the potential losses of SOC stocks due to the combined effects of climate changes, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic disturbances would be ∼ 12.2 % between 2041 and 2060 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), extending to 19.3 % between 2081 and 2100. The decreases in SOC stocks would occur mainly in the higher latitude and colder regions. The study demonstrated the potential significant reduction in SOC stocks in coastal ecosystems and provided an important framework for better understanding the blue carbon ecosystems.

Rainfall Modifies the Disturbance Effects on Regulating Ecosystem Services in Tropical Forests of Bangladesh

Tropical forests are critical for ecosystem functioning and are the major provider of global ecosystem services. The combined effects of climate change and anthropogenic disturbances in the tropics, however, have caused a mass decline in major ecosystem services in recent decades. Nevertheless, most previous studies focused entirely on these disturbances’ effects on forest ecosystem services without taking into consideration the combined effects of climate change and disturbances on key ecosystem services’ indicators. This is more pronounced in Bangladesh, which is one of the countries most adversely affected by global climate change. We investigated anthropogenic disturbances’ effects on regulating ecosystem services under different rainfall regimes in Khadimnagar National Park (KNP) and Satchari National Park (SNP), two major forested, protected areas in Northeast Bangladesh. We considered twelve indicators for five aboveground ecosystem services (i.e., primary production, carbon storage, biodiversity, wildlife habitat, and timber production) and four indicators for four belowground ecosystem services (i.e., organic carbon storage, soil aggregate stability, soil physical support, and soil water regulation) in our study. The effects of disturbances on the indicators of four aboveground ecosystem services (i.e., primary production, tree carbon storage, biodiversity conservation, and timber production) and one belowground ecosystem service (soil physical support) differed in terms of rainfall regimes. Disturbances negatively influenced indicators of primary production (p = 0.03, r = −0.28), tree carbon storage (p = 0.02, r = −0.29), and timber production (p = 0.002, r = −0.39), and positively impacted soil organic carbon storage (p = 0.04, r = 0.27) only under a medium-rainfall regime. Interestingly, a significant positive impact of disturbances on soil physical support (p = 0.001, r = 0.39) was observed under heavy rainfall in our study. In addition, disturbances were significantly associated with biodiversity conservation (p < 0.05) and wildlife habitat quality (p < 0.05) under both rainfall classes. Our findings provide critical insights into the synergistic role of anthropogenic perturbations in regulating ecosystem services with rainfall pattern as a key climatic parameter, which can be useful in restoring large tracts of degraded tropical forests in the United Nations (UN) Decade on Ecosystem Restoration.

Limited co-benefits of protected areas in southwest China under current climate change and human modification

An ambitious new Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework "Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework" has been developed. However, the combined effects of climate change and human modification can undermine the potential benefits of the global post-2020 conservation efforts. The co-benefits of stabilizing the climate, conserving biodiversity, and maintaining intact wilderness areas may help to persuade the general public of the need to quickly expand existing protected areas (PAs). To maximize the co-benefits after 2020, the careful optimization of existing (PAs) network and scientific identification of conservation targets are both essential. Here, we mapped hotspots of biodiversity, climate vulnerability, and wilderness in Southwest China (SWC). By analyzing the representativeness and gaps of the existing PAs network in SWC, we devised post-2020 conservation targets and highlighted their implications for decision-makers. Our results showed that the incongruence between hotspots of different species exists, indicating that habitats suitable for one taxon may not fully harbor other taxa. According to our assessment, the five jurisdictions of SWC have warmed on average by 0.4°C–1.1 °C over the past 60 years alone. In particular, biodiversity hotspots in SWC are undergoing stark climatic changes. We uncovered prominent conservation gaps in SWC's network of PAs, especially in terms of climate vulnerability and biodiversity. Due to their insufficient number and unreasonable spatial distribution, the PAs network in SWC may be not capable of meeting its biodiversity, climate vulnerability, and wilderness conservation objectives. To rectify this, we proposed a 3-step mission: milestone 2025, milestone 2030, and goal 2050, which aims to protect 23%, 28%, and 60% of the terrestrial area in SWC, respectively. Taken together, our study derived conservation priority areas with relatively clear spatial boundaries and importance levels, thus providing detailed, timely information for decision-makers to expand the PAs network and implement conservation measures varying in strictness in post-2020 conservation practice.

The mineralization of urban soils facing the risk of climate change: Case of the flooding phenomenon in the city of Annaba

Urbanization exerts changes on the environment and on the ecosystems and it leads to a modification of the nature of the soil or even a soil impermeability via the infrastructures carried out. This impermeability acts as an aggravating factor for the effects of climate change and causes local environmental stresses. These are particularly urban heat island and urban flooding. The city of Annaba (located in the northeast of Algeria) is among these dense coastal cities, which have experienced rapid and abrupt urban development resulting in the expansion of impermeable infrastructure at the expense of the removal of natural and vegetal cover. The problem of soil sealing in Annaba therefore put it face to face with the direct risk of climate change.Urban flooding is a phenomenon directly linked to soil sealing. The combined effects of climate change, in terms of changes in rainfall patterns and intensities, make some sewerage networks unable to evacuate increasingly large quantities of runoff water from impermeable surfaces causing important material and human damages. In fact, this city has experienced strong periods of heat in recent years, reaching 47°C in summer 2021 [1]. Winter was not so different, intense rainfall causes repeated flooding every year, amplifying the sensitivity and exposure of city dwellers and properties to multiple risks. The present consideration, aims to identify and measure sealed surfaces and to determine the areas vulnerable to the impacts of soil sealing.

Monitoring Climate Change and Air Quality Project Initiative: A Case Study of the Collaboration between ECSTAR and TeroSpace in Thailand

In Thailand, the alteration of weather patterns has resulted in an increase in instances of irregular rainfall, contributing to the occurrence of droughts. The decline of water levels in dams, due to the combined effects of climate change and prolonged droughts, has had a significant impact on agricultural productivity. Drought has a profound effect on the terrestrial biosphere and the atmospheric water cycle and can also contribute to air pollution. Researchers have found a strong correlation between air pollution and drought severity. In response to this pressing issue, the Excellence Center of Space Technology and Research (ECSTAR) at King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Ladkrabang has joined forces with TeroSpace company to launch an initiative aimed at promoting sustainable growth in Chiang Rai, a province in Thailand known for its rich biodiversity. ECSTAR and TeroSpace’s partnership on the sustainable growth initiative in Thailand’s Chiang Rai province focuses on expanding their collaboration to include international organizations such as the Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), which will provide access to satellite imagery and climate and weather information to improve decision-making in various areas of development. CNES is a French organization in charge of space-related activities in France. The collaboration between France and Thailand for this project, in the context of the France-Thailand Year of Innovation 2023, will be crucial for the successful initiation and execution of this research project. The project aims to explore the relationship between air pollution and climate change through the deployment of air quality monitoring devices in designated locations, connected to a global data-sharing network. The results of this research will be valuable to policymakers as they consider the interplay between air pollution and climate change and make efforts to address these challenges.

2000-2018年内蒙古沙区“生态-经济-社会”复合系统脆弱性演变及关键影响因素

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 2000-2018年内蒙古沙区“生态-经济-社会”复合系统脆弱性演变及关键影响因素 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202203100586 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金面上项目(41971253) Vulnerability evolution of the ecological-economic-social complex system and the key influencing factors in the sandy region of Inner Mongolia from 2000 to 2018 Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: National Natural Science Foundation of China(41971253) 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:在气候变化和人类活动共同影响下,沙区"生态-经济-社会"复合系统快速变化,为沙漠化治理及区域可持续发展带来了严峻的挑战。因此,揭示沙区"生态-经济-社会"复合系统脆弱性演变规律,辨识影响脆弱性演化的关键因素及区域差异对沙区可持续管理具有重要意义。以内蒙古自治区为研究区,利用"暴露-敏感-适应"评估模型构建沙区"生态-经济-社会"复合系统脆弱性评价指标体系,将空间主成分分析与时空地理加权回归模型相结合,探讨2000-2018年内蒙古"生态-经济-社会"复合系统脆弱性时空演变及关键因素作用机制。结果表明:(1)脆弱性及暴露度、敏感性和适应性三个维度在空间上均有较强的异质性特征,脆弱性具有整体分散、局部聚集的分布格局;暴露度的空间分布为中部高,两边低;敏感性的空间分布为西部高,东部低;适应性的高低值分布与脆弱性相反。(2)脆弱性的变化在总体上呈现大部分区域降低,局部区域升高的趋势,显著升高区域主要聚集在内蒙古南部地区。(3)影响脆弱性分布的因素在每年均有所不同,但总体上植被覆盖度、沙漠化程度、气象指数等生态指标是影响脆弱性显著变化区域的主要因素。 Abstract:Under the combined effects of climate change and human activities, the rapidly change of the ecological-economic-social complex system in sandy areas poses serious challenges to desertification control and regional sustainable development. Therefore, it is of great significance to reveal the vulnerability evolution law of the ecological-economic-social complex system in sandy region, identify the key factors affecting the vulnerability evolution for the sustainable management of sandy region. In this paper, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was taken as the research area, and the VSD (Vulnerability Scoping Diagram) model was used to construct the vulnerability assessment index system for the ecological-economic-social complex system. The spatial principal component analysis and spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model were combined to explore the spatio-temporal evolution of the vulnerability of the ecological-economic-social complex system and the influencing mechanisms of the key factors from 2000 to 2018. The results show that: (1) vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity and adaptability have strongly heterogeneous characteristics in space, and vulnerability has a distribution pattern of overall dispersion and local aggregation; the spatial distribution of exposure is high in the middle and low on both sides; the spatial distribution of sensitivity is high in the west and low in the east; the distribution of high and low values of adaptability is the opposite of vulnerability. (2) Vulnerability changes generally show a trend of decreasing in most regions and an increasing trend in some areas. The areas with vulnerability significantly increase mainly concentrated in the southern Inner Mongolia. (3) The factors that affect the distribution of vulnerability are different each year, but in general, ecological indicators such as vegetation cover, desertification degree and meteorological indices are the main factors that affect significant change in vulnerability. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Seed Science and Technology. Volume 50 Issue 3 (2022)

The combined effects of climate change and a growing world population mean that food security is increasingly an issue of concern. The recent 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP27, held in November 2022 saw the launch of the Sharm-El-Sheikh Adaptation Agenda (2022) which recognises that food and agriculture systems will need to become more climate resilient, sustainable, and provide improved yields. Seeds will have a key role to play in achieving these goals, and the papers in this issue provide examples of how seed science can help respond to the changing climate as well as mitigate against the effects of climate change. From providing innovative solutions to improve seed performance, to conducting research on species that have not previously been well studied, research into seed science and technology will help us to achieve the more resilient agricultural systems envisaged in the Adaptation Agenda.

Marked shifts of harmful algal blooms in the Bohai Sea linked with combined impacts of environmental changes

The Bohai Sea, a semi-enclosed inland sea in China and an important mariculture region, has experienced extensive harmful algal blooms (HABs) and their negative impacts for several decades. To investigate the changes of HABs and their potential drivers over time and space, a dataset of 230 HAB events (1952–2017), along with corresponding environmental data (1990–2017) was compiled. The frequency of HAB events in the Bohai Sea has increased over time but plateaued in the last decade, and our analysis showed that history of HABs in the Bohai Sea could be categorized into three periods based on their frequency, scale, and HAB-forming species. The seasonal window of HAB events has started earlier and lasted longer, and the main hotspot has moved from Bohai Bay to coastal waters of Qinhuangdao over time. There were marked shifts in the representative HAB-forming microalgae, from dinoflagellates in the first period (before 2000) to haptophytes in the second period (2000–2009), and pelagophytes in the third period (2009 onwards). These community changes are accompanied by a trend toward diversification of HAB-forming microalgae, decrease in cell-size, and increase in negative impacts. Statistical analyses indicate that long-term changes in HABs in the Bohai Sea are linked with the combined effects of climate change, eutrophication and mariculture development. The results of the present study require to refine future monitoring programs, develop adaptive management strategies and predictive models for HABs in the Bohai Sea.

A pragmatic approach to the combined effect of climate change and water abstraction on Lake Ziway water balance, Ethiopia

AbstractClimate change and ongoing human activity have been threatening Ethiopia's Lake Ziway's water balance. However, few studies have been conducted to investigate the combined effects of climate change and water withdrawal on the lake's water balance using climate change and water withdrawal for irrigation. We used high-resolution multiple climate models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios to assess the impact of climatic variables for two future periods: 2021–2050 and 2051–2080. Rainfall and temperature data biases were corrected using power transformation and variance scaling methods, respectively. The Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model was employed to simulate surface inflow into Lake Ziway from the Meki and Katar sub-catchments. The FAO CROPWAT model was used to estimate the irrigation water demand of major crops grown in the study area. The results indicate that future temperatures and wet season runoff levels are expected to rise. Under the worst climate change scenario, climate change and water withdrawal from the lake for agriculture may cause the lake level to drop by 25 cm per year, resulting in a 10 km2 surface area and 101 Mm3 volume reductions. Therefore, implementing preventive measures, proper planning and careful monitoring of lake water use is advised.

Recruitment, mortality and growth in semi-arid conifer-eucalypt forest: Small trees insure against fire and drought.

Well-managed semi-arid forests help offset global change by storing significant amounts of carbon above- and belowground and maintaining hydrological cycles. Larger trees have been the focus of many studies due to their carbon storage and habitat quality, yet recruitment and small trees are important components of ecosystem resilience and recovery. Here, we study the impacts of disturbances (including harvesting) on recruitment, mortality and growth for a mixed conifer-broadleaf semi-arid forest type using long-term data. Pilliga Forest in New South Wales, inland eastern Australia. Callitris-Eucalyptus forests. We used data from permanent sample plots (PSPs) spanning 55 years, calculated stand structure, gains and losses and determined reasons for tree death (harvesting, fire, wind, drought and other effects). We extracted climate and fire data for the PSP locations using spatial analysis. Stocking of studied forests remained stable (modest increase in basal area and stem density), despite harvesting and wildfires over 6 decades. Compared to stands in the 1940s and prior to European settlement, current forests are composed of more trees per unit area, and these trees have smaller diameters. Recruitment and sustained presence of small trees have buffered impacts of recurring drought, fire and harvesting. Fires are a common feature of the studied ecosystems and fire impacts have increased in the past 20 years, especially in unmanaged stands, where fires have reduced tree carbon by >50%. Recruitment and growth of small trees are critical to offset carbon losses due to fire, drought and harvesting. All size classes have important ecological values in semi-arid forests and must be included in long-term monitoring programmes. Long-term data offer unique insights into combined effects of climate change, management and disturbances, especially for fire-prone ecosystems, where small trees are often susceptible to fire.

Stakeholder-based decision support model for selection of alternative water sources - A path towards sustainable industrial future in Vietnam

The combined effect of climate change, rapid industrialisation and traditional water use has created freshwater stress situations in industrial delta regions. Alternative Water Sources (AWSs) offer opportunities to mitigate the freshwater stress issue and, thus, contribute to a sustainable industrial future. This study developed a Decision Support Model (DSM) to assist the decision-makers in selecting the most feasible AWS. In the study location, Tan Thuan Export and Processing Zone (TTZ) of Ho Chi Minh City, rainwater, industrial effluent and brackish water were selected as AWS options and evaluated for technical, environmental, economic, social and institutional criteria. The stakeholder organisations representing government organisations, industrial-zone management organisations and enterprises were selected as decision-makers based on their willingness to explore AWSs. Four DSM scenarios were derived from the varying decision-making power of the selected stakeholder organisations. The results obtained from applying DSM in TTZ showed rainwater as the most feasible AWS for all the scenarios, while the rank of other AWSs fluctuated for different scenarios. To implement the result of DSM in practice, the government should not only focus on formulating clear technological guidelines on AWS quality but also on providing subsidies and creating an environment of social acceptance of AWSs. The DSM allows the decision-makers to determine the most capable AWS in mitigating freshwater stress issues and the changes required to shift towards these AWSs.

Impact of climate change on future availability of water for irrigation and hydropower generation in the Omo-Gibe Basin of Ethiopia

Study regionOmo-Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia Study focusThe objective of this study was to predict the impact of climate change on the future availability of water for irrigation and hydropower production. Climate change projections for the near future (2017–2044), medium (2045–2072), and long-term (2073–2100) using a multi-model set average of fifteen regional climate models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Water availability, allocation, and demand for irrigation and hydropower generation were predicted using the coupled Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological models. New hydrological insights for the regionThe projected annual average temperature increase range is 2.10–3.6 °C under RCP 4.5 emission scenarios while 2.7–4.8 °C under RCP 8.5. Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios, projected annual average precipitation declines ranged from 10.7–13.6 % and 11.1–13.8 %, respectively. Projected annual average declines in streamflow ranged from 7.0 % to 10.9 % under PCR 4.5 emissions scenarios, while 10.9–2.8 % under PCR 8.5. As a consequence, water shortages for irrigation may decrease by 15.5–25.4 % and hydroelectricity by 10.5–20.2 % during study periods. Due to the combined effect of climate change and rising water demand, the increase in water scarcity ranges from 7.9–30.6 %. The projected results showed that future water availability for irrigation and hydropower generation will decline in the future. Climate change adaptation options are needed to ensure future water availability for hydropower generation and irrigation.

Review of factors affecting stress-free temperature in the continuous welded rail track

Railways have a significant role to play in sustainable transportation. Rail travel is currently the only mode of rapid, large-scale, long-distance transport for both freight and passengers that offers zero carbon dioxide emissions at the point of use. However, our railway infrastructure needs to be more robust and resilient to the combined effects of climate change, traffic growth and increases in vehicle loads and speed. Rail buckling is of increasing concern as environmental temperatures rise and traffic loads, speed and intensity of use increase. A key indicator and control of the propensity for track buckling is the stress-free temperature of the rails. However, determining the actual stress-free temperature of a given section of track is challenging. Knowledge of the factors affecting stress-free temperature will help in the identification of vulnerable sections of track and the development of an appropriate maintenance regime. This paper reviews and discusses the factors affecting stress-free temperature in ballasted railway track with continuous welded rails (CWR).

Spatiotemporal Variation and Influence Factors of Vegetation Cover in the Yellow River Basin (1982–2021) Based on GIMMS NDVI and MOD13A1

Depicting the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation cover in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and delineating the influences of climate change and human activities on the dynamics have been of significant importance for understanding the surface earth systems in general and also for formulating ecological protection plans of the YRB in particular. This study uses the GIMMS NDVI dataset from 1982 to 2015 and the MOD13A1 NDVI dataset from 2000 to 2021 to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of vegetation cover in the YRB for the period from 1982 to 2021 with an attempt to reveal the influencing factors. The spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of vegetation cover are analyzed by maximum value composite, Theil-Sen median trend analysis, and Mann–Kendall test. Combined with the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation in the same period, influencing factors of vegetation cover in the YRB are discussed by using binary linear regression analysis and residual analysis. Results show that: (1) the multi-year average NDVI values increase from the northwest to the southeast and that the annual mean values of the vegetation covers fluctuate relatively greatly along an increasing trend with a growth rate of 0.019/(10a). Understandably, the monthly mean NDVI values show a single-peak distribution pattern, with August being the peak time (0.4936). (2) 77.35% of the studied areas are characterized by exhibiting an increasing trend of vegetation cover during the study period (i.e., 1982–2021). (3) Vegetation cover of the YRB is affected by the combined effects of climate change and human activities, with human activities being more significant in the observed amelioration of vegetation cover.

Climate change may neutralize the sediment starvation in mega deltas caused by hydropower dams

Sediment trapping by hydropower dams is one major cause of sediment starvation in global river deltas, but how climate change would influence the damming-induced sediment starvation remains unexplored. The Mekong River is the most important international river in Asia with rich biodiversity and massive hydropower potential. Here, we model the combined effect of climate change and damming on the Mekong River's sediment budget. Our study shows that six mega-dams in China currently reduce the sediment load into the Mekong Delta by 12.1%, while major downstream dams quadruple (49.7%) this reduction. The projected warmer and wetter climate may fully neutralize the impact of China's dams (>60% likelihood) and partially offset the impact of downstream dams. The neutralization effect comes with a notable shift in the sediment regime. In a rapid-change scenario, the basin-wide soil erosion, reservoir sedimentation and river sediment settling have changes of +9%, +36%, -135%, respectively, which degrades regional sustainability, particularly in the lower basin. Novel solutions from the perspective of the water-food-energy-climate nexus are urgently needed to maintain healthy sediment budgets in global mega-rivers including the Mekong River.

Drivers of climate variability and increasing water salinity impacts on the farmer’s income risk with future outlook mitigation

PurposeThe main aim of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change and water salinity on farmer’s income risk with future outlook mitigation. Salinity and climate change are a threat to agricultural productivity worldwide. However, the combined effects of climate change and salinity impacts on farmers' income are not well understood, particularly in developing countries.Design/methodology/approachThe response-yield function and general maximum entropy methods were used to predict the impact of temperature, precipitation and salinity on crop yield. The target minimization of total absolute deviations (MOTAD)-positive mathematical programming model was used to simulate the impact of climate change and salinity on socioeconomic and environmental indicators. In the end, a multicriteria decision-making model was used, aiming at the selection of suitable climate scenarios.FindingsThe results revealed that precipitation shows a significantly decreasing trend, while temperature and groundwater salinity (EC) illustrate a significantly increasing trend. Climate change and EC negatively impact the farmer's income and water shadow prices. Maximum reduction in income and water shadow prices was observed for A2 scenario (−12.4% and 19.4%) during 2050. The environmental index was the most important, with priority of 43.4% compared to socioeconomic indicators. Subindex amount of water used was also significant in study area, with 28.1% priority. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution ranking system found that B1 was the best climatic scenario for adopting climate change adaptation in the research region.Originality/valueIn this study, farmers' income threats were assessed with the aspects of different climate scenario (A1, A1B and B1) over the horizons of 2030, 2040 and 2050 and three different indicators (economic, social and environmental) in Northwestern region of Pakistan. Only in arid and semiarid regions has climate change raised temperature and reduced rainfall, which are preliminary symptoms of growing salinity.

Expansion of typical lakes in Xinjiang under the combined effects of climate change and human activities

Lakes are important guarantees of regional economic development and ecological security. Previous studies focused on trends of surface area and water level of lakes in Xinjiang, but paid less attention to nonlinear change and driving mechanisms of lake areas at annual and monthly scales. To address this issue, this study used a remote-sensing Big Data cloud platform and mathematical statistical methods to investigate the change in typical lakes and its attribution in Xinjiang during 1986–2020. The results showed that: 1) there was a significant linear trend in Xinjiang lakes: except for Jili Lake, the plains lakes showed an insignificant (p > 0.1) expansion trend, while the mountain lakes showed an significant expansion trend (p < 0.01). 2) There was a significant nonlinear trend in Xinjiang lakes: most of the plains lakes showed periodicity at 14 and 21 years, however most of the mountain lakes showed periodicity at 17 and 21 years. Most of the mutation trends of plains lakes were not significant, yet the mutation trends of mountain lakes showed significant expansion. 3) Human activities were the dominant factor leading to changes in the plains lakes: among the anthropogenic factors, farmland area, GDP, and population had significant effects on lake area (p < 0.1), and lake expansion was closely related to population and farmland area. Among climatic elements, precipitation mainly affected the changes in plains lakes. 4) Climate change was the dominant factor leading to changes in mountain lakes. The effects of temperature change on mountain lakes were all significantly positive (p < 0.05). In the future, it will be necessary to build lake protection schemes that adapt to climate change and human disturbances. This study can provide an important scientific basis for the rational development and utilization of lakes in Xinjiang.

Cascading effects of climate change on recreational marine flats fishes and fisheries.

Tropical and subtropical coastal flats are shallow regions of the marine environment at the intersection of land and sea. These regions provide myriad ecological goods and services, including recreational fisheries focused on flats-inhabiting fishes such as bonefish, tarpon, and permit. The cascading effects of climate change have the potential to negatively impact coastal flats around the globe and to reduce their ecological and economic value. In this paper, we consider how the combined effects of climate change, including extremes in temperature and precipitation regimes, sea level rise, and changes in nutrient dynamics, are causing rapid and potentially permanent changes to the structure and function of tropical and subtropical flats ecosystems. We then apply the available science on recreationally targeted fishes to reveal how these changes can cascade through layers of biological organization—from individuals, to populations, to communities—and ultimately impact the coastal systems that depend on them. We identify critical gaps in knowledge related to the extent and severity of these effects, and how such gaps influence the effectiveness of conservation, management, policy, and grassroots stewardship efforts.

Metabolic rates of the Asian shore crab Hemigrapsus sanguineus in air as a function of body size, location, and injury.

Rapid warming in the Gulf of Maine may influence the success or invasiveness of the Asian shore crab, Hemigrapsus sanguineus. To better predict the effects of climate change on this invasive species, it is necessary to measure its energy dynamics under a range of conditions. However, previous research has only focused on the metabolism of this intertidal species in water. We sampled adult crabs from three different sites and measured their metabolic rates in the air. We show that metabolic rate increases with body mass and the number of missing limbs, but decreases with the number of regenerating limbs, possibly reflecting the timing of energy allocation to limb regeneration. Importantly, metabolic rates measured here in the air are ~4× higher than metabolic rates previously measured for this species in water. Our results provide baseline measurements of aerial metabolic rates across body sizes, which may be affected by climate change. With a better understanding of respiration in H. sanguineus, we can make more informed predictions about the combined effects of climate change and invasive species on the northeast coasts of North America.