Combined Effects Of Climate Change Research Articles

Competing water uses between agriculture and energy: Quantifying future climate change impacts for the Portuguese power sector

Climate change may increase water needs for irrigation in southern Europe competing with other water uses, such as hydropower, which may likely be impacted by lower precipitation. Climate change will also potentially affect the variability and availability of other renewable energy resources (solar and wind) and electricity consumption patterns. This work quantifies the effect of competition for water use between irrigation and hydropower in the future 2050 Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector and under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change projections. It uses the power system eTIMES_PT model to assess the combined effects of climate change on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sectorconsidering changes in irrigation, hydropower, wind and solar PV availability. eTIMES_PT is a linear optimisation model that satisfies electricity demand at minimal total power system cost. Results show that, by 2050, climate change can lead to an increase in annual irrigation water needs up to 12% in Tagus and 19% in Douro watersheds (from 2005 values), with substantially higher values for spring (up to 84%). Combining these increased water needs with the expected reduction in river runoff can lead to a decline in summer and spring hydropower capacity factors from half to three times below current values. By 2050, concurrent water uses under climate change can reduce hydropower generation by 26–56% less than historically observed, mainly in summer and spring. Higher solar PV, complemented with batteries’ electricity storage, can offset the lower hydropower availability, but this will lead to higher electricity prices. Adequate transboundary water management agreements and reducing water losses in irrigation systems will play a key role in mitigating climate impacts in both agriculture and power sector.

Climate Resilience and Adaptation in West African Oyster Fisheries: An Expert-Based Assessment of the Vulnerability of the Oyster Crassostrea tulipa to Climate Change

Globally, over 85% of oyster reefs have been lost, and the combined effects of climate change, ocean acidification, and environmental degradation, including pollution and mangrove overharvesting, could further reduce global oyster fisheries in the coming decades. To understand the level of impact of climate change on the oyster fishery in West Africa, an expert-based vulnerability assessment to climate change was conducted for the West African mangrove oyster (Crassostrea tulipa, Lamarck 1819). Using a combination of the exposure of the oyster to climatic stressors (estuarine temperature, salinity, river flow, surface run-off, sea level rise, and estuarine circulation) together with an assessment of sensitivity to these stressors, we estimate the overall vulnerability of C. tulipa to climate change. A very high overall climate vulnerability score of 12 on a scale of 16 was calculated for C. tulipa. While the overall climate exposure score in the West African coastal region remained high, the high sensitivity of C. tulipa to hydrographic conditions of its habitat, in particular salinity, coupled with its sessile and habitat-specific nature, pushed the overall vulnerability to very high. Early life history settlement requirements, adult mobility, and sensitivity to salinity were the three most important biological and sensitivity attributes that determined the vulnerability score. By leaving each of these three sensitivity attributes out of the analysis, the overall vulnerability score was reduced to 9 (i.e., from very high to high). A negative directional effect of climate change, coupled with a low potential for change in distribution, threatens the C. tulipa fishery in a long-term adverse climate scenario. We recommend management efforts that incorporate climate resilience and adaptation practices to prioritize recruitment success, as well as the development of breeding lines with climate-resilient traits.

Spatio-temporal analysis of shoreline changes and erosion risk assessment along Jerba island (Tunisia) based on remote-sensing data and geospatial tools

Jerba, the largest island in North Africa, is among the most exposed islands to the combined effects of climate change and human activities in the Mediterranean. The eastern coast of Jerba island has long been subject to intense tourist development due to its attractive natural potential. The main issue addressed in this study concerns the evolutionary trends of Jerba shoreline and the assessment of coastal erosion risk. This work focuses on the historical study of the shoreline positions based on satellite data processing. The use of geographic information system (GIS) and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) geostatistical calculation tool allowed for the identification of erosion and accretion rates and the description of evolutionary trends across 32 years covering three periods (1989–1999, 1999–2009, and 2009–2021). The results show an overall erosion trend (89% of the coastline). The statistics revealed that the study area, with the exception of the sandy spit, has experienced an intense and alarming level of erosion between 1989 and 1999, with an end point rate (EPR) equal to −4.12 m/year. This net rate continued to be negative in the period between 1999 and 2009, with an EPR of −0.5 m/year. Between 2009 and 2021, the net rate of shoreline change is marked by slight accretion, at an average of +1.4 m/year. The overall long-term trend shows the shoreline is eroding, with an average linear regression rate of −1.38 m/year for the whole period. This trend is due to a combination of the cumulative effects of sea-level rise and anthropogenic actions. Therefore, sustainable management strategies need to be implemented urgently by coastal managers to restore the sectors that are susceptible to further erosion.

Seagrass Factor in Climate Change Mitigation in the Philippines

Despite their importance, seagrasses are facing a global decline due primarily to increased nutrient loading and sedimentation resulting from deforestation and agriculture, and, more recently, from seawater warming in shallow coastal waters. With the advent of new technology and a concerted understanding of seagrass ecosystems as vulnerable social-ecological systems, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of studies focusing on the effects of climate change on seagrasses. Here, I provide an account of the status, role, and future of Philippine seagrasses in an era of climate-driven environmental change. I have gathered information from published studies and actual accounts to identify potential commonalities in the effects of climate change and the responses of seagrasses across the molecular, community, and ecosystem levels. Occupying 13.3% or 4,826 km of the total length of the Philippine coastline, seagrass species composition and diversity remain relatively stable. The seagrass beds of the Philippines and Southeast Asia are declining at an estimated rate of 2.62% or 391 km2 yr–1. Coupled with the apparent neglect in accounts of global carbon, this decline indicates a potential to lose an effective source of blue carbon useful in mitigating the impacts of climate change. In this study, I evaluate the combined effects of climate change with other environmental stressors on the ecosystem services of seagrasses and emphasize the need to apply the lessons learned from three decades of local studies to provide a more inclusive science-based knowledge of seagrass- climate interaction and a deeper understanding of the ecosystem’s resilience. I conclude by presenting the most significant knowledge and management gaps and future directions for seagrass research in the Philippines.

Exploring the Influence of the Interaction of Climate Change, Manmade Threats and COVID-19 on the Livelihoods of Wetland Communities in Sub-Saharan Africa

Wetlands are very important because of the wide range of ecosystem services they provide. Despite their ecological, social and environmental importance, these ecosystems are threatened and fragmented under the combined effects of climate change (CC) and man-made activities (MMA). Such a state of things could be exacerbated by the advent of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with its many implications. In order to help decision-makers take good decisions, the combined effect of CC, MMA and COVID-19 on the livelihoods of communities around wetland ecosystems have been reviewed based on available scientific knowledge. First, we analyzed the different concepts and theories underlying the wetlands-related studies and then summarized the merits and demerits of the different methodologies underlying wetland studies. The empirical evidences that exist in previous literatures have been highlighted. Similarly, common livelihood strategies for wetland communities in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have been highlighted. The diversity of wetlands’ functions and services makes them a source of livelihood, food security and poverty alleviation for riverside communities. However, these communities lack the knowledge and awareness to understand the impact of their activities and CC on their livelihoods. The review also helped to identify that, out of the three factors investigated, the livelihoods of rural wetland dwellers in SSA are mostly influenced by CC and MMA. However, climate change and COVID-19 remain life-altering transboundary threats that extend in space and time, with large uncertainties on wetlands communities livelihoods.

Detection and attribution of long-term and fine-scale changes in spring phenology over urban areas: A case study in New York State

• Generate 30 m SOS map in NYS using Landsat observations from 1990 to 2015. • Most areas in NYS show an advanced SOS with 0.2 ∼ 0.6 day/year. • Urbanization has higher partial correlation with SOS spatially than temperature. Spring phenology plays an essential role in climate change, terrestrial ecosystem, and public health. Field-based monitoring and understanding of changes in spring phenology for long periods and in large regions are challenging due to the limited in-site observations. Space-based remotely sensed observations offer great potentials for monitoring decadal spring phenology changes from regional to global scales. However, the coarse-scale remotely sensed observations are insufficient to capture fine-scale spring phenology dynamics, especially in urban areas, and this makes it challenging for understanding the combined effects of climate change and urbanization on spring phenology. We derived the start of phenology season (SOS) in New York State using 30 m Landsat observations from 1990 to 2015 to understand the impact of the environment and urbanization on SOS. The results show that SOS for different years reveals heterogeneous spatial distribution. Most regions of New York State have been experiencing significant spring phenology changes in form of earlier onset of vegetation greening, ranging from 0.2 to 0.6 day/year during 1990 to 2015, and this trend varies slightly with latitudes and urbanization levels. Further, spatial correlation analysis shows that the increase in temperature and urbanization could both promote the advancement of SOS. However, the effect of urbanization (partial correlation coefficient (R) ranges from −0.289 to −0.542) on SOS is greater than the effect of temperature (R ranges from 0.006 to −0.192). The study generates a high spatio-temporal resolution spring phenology dataset for ecological, environmental and public health studies, especially in urban areas, and reveals the importance of better accounting for the urbanization effects when quantifying the SOS dynamics in phenology models.

Publisher’s Note

Railways have a significant role to play in sustainable transportation. Rail travel is currently the only mode of rapid, large-scale, long-distance transport for both freight and passengers that offers zero carbon dioxide emissions at the point of use. However, our railway infrastructure needs to be more robust and resilient to the combined effects of climate change, traffic growth and increases in vehicle loads and speed. Rail buckling is of increasing concern as environmental temperatures rise and traffic loads, speed and intensity of use increase. A key indicator and control of the propensity for track buckling is the stress-free temperature of the rails. However, determining the actual stress-free temperature of a given section of track is challenging. Knowledge of the factors affecting stress-free temperature will help in the identification of vulnerable sections of track and the development of an appropriate maintenance regime. This paper reviews and discusses the factors affecting stress-free temperature in ballasted railway track with continuous welded rails (CWR).

Habitat distribution change of commercial species in the Adriatic Sea during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to reduced anthropogenic pressure on ecosystems in several world areas, but resulting ecosystem responses in these areas have not been investigated. This paper presents an approach to make quick assessments of potential habitat changes in 2020 of eight marine species of commercial importance in the Adriatic Sea. Measurements from floating probes are interpolated through an advection-equation based model. The resulting distributions are then combined with species observations through an ecological niche model to estimate habitat distributions in the past years (2015–2018) at 0.1° spatial resolution. Habitat patterns over 2019 and 2020 are then extracted and explained in terms of specific environmental parameter changes. These changes are finally assessed for their potential dependency on climate change patterns and anthropogenic pressure change due to the pandemic. Our results demonstrate that the combined effect of climate change and the pandemic could have heterogeneous effects on habitat distributions: three species (Squilla mantis, Engraulis encrasicolus, and Solea solea) did not show significant niche distribution change; habitat suitability positively changed for Sepia officinalis, but negatively for Parapenaeus longirostris, due to increased temperature and decreasing dissolved oxygen (in the Adriatic) generally correlated with climate change; the combination of these trends with an average decrease in chlorophyll, probably due to the pandemic, extended the habitat distributions of Merluccius merluccius and Mullus barbatus but reduced Sardina pilchardus distribution. Although our results are based on approximated data and reliable at a macroscopic level, we present a very early insight of modifications that will possibly be observed years after the end of the pandemic when complete data will be available. Our approach is entirely based on Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) data and is general enough to be used for other species and areas.

Steps Toward Modelling the Past and Future North Sea Ecosystem With a Focus on Light Climate

With ongoing manmade climate change, it is important to understand its impact on regional ecosystems. Furthermore, it is known that the North Sea light climate is subject to ongoing change. The combined effects of climate change and coastal darkening are investigated in this work. We used a three-dimensional ecosystem model, forced with data from a climate model, to project three plausible biogeochemical states for the years 2050–2054, following three representative concentration and shared socioeconomic pathways (RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2 and RCP8.5-SSP5). We also performed a historic experiment for the years 1950–1954 and 2000–2004 for comparison. Our results suggest significant reductions of phytoplankton biomass as a consequence of sinking nutrient levels for all future scenarios. Additionally, a modelling study was carried out, in which we raised background SPM levels by 40% to reflect potential changes in the future. This revealed that for RCP2.6-SSP1, the ecosystem is more sensitive to changes in the light climate than for the other scenarios, due to higher nutrient availability.

Combined effects of multi-land use decisions and climate change on water-related ecosystem services in Northeast China

Land use intensification and climate change have resulted in substantial changes in the provision of ecosystem services, particularly in China that experienced sharp increases in population growth and demands for goods and energy. To protect the environment and restore the degraded ecosystems, the Chinese government has implemented multiple national ecological restoration projects. Yet, the combined effects of climate change and land use and land cover change (LULCC) over large spatial scales that brace multiple land use decisions and great environmental heterogeneity remain unclear. We assessed the combined effects of LULCC and climate change on water-related ecosystem services (water provision and soil conservation services) from 1990s to 2020s in Northeast China using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model. We found that water yield decreased by 9.78% and soil retention increased by 30.51% over the past 30 years. LULCC and climate change exerted negative effects on water yield whereas they both enhanced soil retention; LULCC interacted with climate change to have relatively small inhibitory effects on water yield and large facilitation effects on soil retention. Changes in water yield were mainly attributed to climate change, while soil retention was largely influenced by LULCC and its interaction with climate change. Our research highlights the importance of land use decisions and its interactive effects with climate change on ecosystem services in a heavily disturbed temperate region, and provides important information to inform future land management and policy making for sustaining diverse ecosystem services and ensuring human wellbeing.

Small Human Population Drastic Impact, as Inferred From Multi-Proxies of a Temporary Carpathian Lake

Over the last thousands of years, human impact led to significant changes in the landscape, with impacts on the environment and the functioning of the ecosystems. We assumed that even small human settlements developed around water bodies might have a substantial impact that surpasses the natural cycles of climate change in an area, especially linked to forest cutting. We have chosen a temporary lake in the Romanian Carpathians as temporary lakes are overlooked in paleoclimatic studies, although they have potential as hotspots for paleoenvironmental research studies. Zăton Lake has exposed riverbank sediments dated with radioactive lead and optical stimulated luminescence techniques, analyzed for sediments and paleomagnetism, and sampled for fossil Oribatida mites. The results show that for the last 2,200 years, natural cycles of warm and cold periods changed the oribatid communities around the lake, with warmer cycles of rich fauna alternating with poor fauna during colder periods. However, in the last few centuries, the increased human occupation in the area replaced the ecologically diverse fauna with eurytopic taxa, more similar to the colder periods of the environmental evolution around the lake. Even if the human occupation around the lake was negligible, probably a few hundred to ∼2,500 people as in the present, the impact on the area is drastic, with ecologically nonspecific species becoming dominant. In conclusion, even small and temporary water bodies can contain unique and valuable information on past histories of climate change and human impacts. At regional scales, the combined effects of climate change and long-term human impacts in local areas can have deleterious effects on invertebrate species and communities.

The trend of natural ventilation potential in 74 Chinese cities from 2014 to 2019: Impact of air pollution and climate change

Air pollution and unsuitable climatic conditions both limit the application of natural ventilation (NV). The combined effects of climate change and air pollution on NV's potential are unknown, particularly in China, where the atmospheric environment has improved greatly since 2014, but temperatures have increased with global warming. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of coupled changes in environmental governance and climate change on the potential for NV in China from 2014 to 2019 and identify critical factors limiting NV use. Four NV scenarios were investigated pertaining to temperature, humidity, wind speed, and six atmospheric pollutants. NV potential decreased when only climatic parameters was considered, but increased when pollutant limitations were considered from 2014 to 2019. The cold region lost the most NV hours (54.9%) while the mild region lost the fewest hours (20.3%). Natural ventilation worked best during summer and worst in winter. Shenzhen, Kunming, Fuzhou, and Haikou showed the highest NV potential in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The average proportion of the NV hours lost in the 74 cities was 46.7% due to air pollution in 2019, while the proportion was 71.1% in 2014. The main factors that limited NV hours were PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 pollution. While the air pollution limits on the NV hours were reduced substantially in 2019 when compared with those in 2014, the air pollution levels in China remain high, and further improvements in the air quality are still required, particularly in the cold region.

Ocean Futures for the World’s Largest Yellowfin Tuna Population Under the Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification

The impacts of climate change are expected to have profound effects on the fisheries of the Pacific Ocean, including its tuna fisheries, the largest globally. This study examined the combined effects of climate change on the yellowfin tuna population using the ecosystem model SEAPODYM. Yellowfin tuna fisheries in the Pacific contribute significantly to the economies and food security of Pacific Island Countries and Territories and Oceania. We use an ensemble of earth climate models to project yellowfin populations under a high greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC RCP8.5) scenario, which includes, the combined effects of a warming ocean, increasing acidification and changing ocean chemistry. Our results suggest that the acidification impact will be smaller in comparison to the ocean warming impact, even in the most extreme ensemble member scenario explored, but will have additional influences on yellowfin tuna population dynamics. An eastward shift in the distribution of yellowfin tuna was observed in the projections in the model ensemble in the absence of explicitly accounting for changes in acidification. The extent of this shift did not substantially differ when the three-acidification induced larval mortality scenarios were included in the ensemble; however, acidification was projected to weaken the magnitude of the increase in abundance in the eastern Pacific. Together with intensive fishing, these potential changes are likely to challenge the global fishing industry as well as the economies and food systems of many small Pacific Island Countries and Territories. The modelling framework applied in this study provides a tool for evaluating such effects and informing policy development.

Predicting the Effects of Land Use Land Cover and Climate Change on Munneru River Basin Using CA-Markov and Soil and Water Assessment Tool

It is important to understand how changing climate and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) will impact future spatio-temporal water availability across the Munneru river basin as it aids in effective water management and adaptation strategies. The Munneru river basin is one of the important sub-basins of the Krishna River in India. In this paper, the combined impact of LULC and Climate Change (CC) on Munneru water resources using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is presented. The SWAT model is calibrated and validated for the period 1983–2017 in SWAT-CUP using the SUFI2 algorithm. The correlation coefficient between observed and simulated streamflow is calculated to be 0.92. The top five ranked Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are ensembled at each grid using the Reliable Ensemble Averaging (REA) approach. Predicted LULC maps for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080 using the CA-Markov model revealed increases in built-up and kharif crop areas and decreases in barren lands. The average monthly streamflows are simulated for the baseline period (1983–2005) and for three future periods, namely the near future (2021–2039), mid future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2099) under Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. Streamflows increase in three future periods when only CC and the combined effect of CC and LULC are considered under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. When compared to the CC impact in the RCP 4.5 scenario, the percentage increase in average monthly mean streamflow (July–November) with the combined impact of CC and LULC is 33.9% (near future), 35.8% (mid future), and 45.3% (far future). Similarly, RCP 8.5 increases streamflow by 33.8% (near future), 36.5% (mid future), and 38.8% (far future) when compared to the combined impact of CC and LULC with only CC. When the combined impact of CC and LULC is considered, water balance components such as surface runoff and evapotranspiration increase while aquifer recharge decreases in both scenarios over the three future periods. The findings of this study can be used to plan and develop integrated water management strategies for the basin with projected LULC under climate change scenarios. This methodology can be applied to other basins in similar physiographic regions.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on distribution and community composition of macrophytes in lentic systems.

ABSTRACTMacrophytes are an important part of freshwater ecosystems and they have direct and indirect roles in keeping the water clear and providing structure and habitats for other aquatic organisms. Currently, climate change is posing a major threat to macrophyte communities by altering the many drivers that determine macrophyte abundance and composition. We synthesise current literature to examine the direct effects of climate change (i.e. changes in CO2, temperature, and precipitation patterns) on aquatic macrophytes in lakes as well as indirect effects via invasive species and nutrient dynamics. The combined effects of climate change are likely to lead to an increased abundance and distribution of emergent and floating species, and a decreased abundance and distribution of submerged macrophytes. In small shallow lakes, these processes are likely to be faster than in deep temperate lakes; with lower light levels, water level fluctuations and increases in temperature, the systems will become dominated by algae. In general, specialized macrophyte species in high‐latitude and high‐altitude areas will decrease in number while more competitive invasive species are likely to outcompete native species. Given that the majority of endemic species reside in tropical lakes, climate change, together with other anthropogenic pressures, might cause the extinction of a large number of endemic species. Lakes at higher altitudes in tropical areas could therefore potentially be a hotspot for future conservation efforts for protecting endemic macrophyte species. In response to a combination of climate‐change induced threats, the macrophyte community might collapse, which will change the status of lakes and may initiate a negative feedback loop that will affect entire lake ecosystems.

Synergistic effects of climate and landscape change on the conservation of Amazonian lizards.

The leading causes of the worldwide decline in biodiversity are global warming, allied with natural habitat loss and fragmentation. Here, we propose an analysis of the synergistic effects of these two factors in 63 species of Amazonian lizards. We predicted that the high-climatic suitability areas of species would be significantly impacted by different deforestation scenarios and the resultant landscape structure and considered that forest-dwelling species would be especially susceptible to deforestation scenarios. We also pointed out species threatened by both drivers and suggested critical areas for their future conservation. According to our results, most species will face future reductions in suitable areas for their occurrence according to five different patterns, two of which represent significant risks for 15 species. Some of these species already deal with severe habitat loss and fragmentation of their current distribution ranges, whereas others will suffer a considerable area reduction related to future range shifts. We emphasize the importance of protected areas (PAs), especially indigenous lands, and the need to plan combined strategies involving PAs’ maintenance and possible implementation of ecological corridors. Finally, we highlight eight species of thermoconformer lizards that constitute present and future conservation concerns related to the combined effects of climate change and habitat loss and that should be carefully evaluated in extinction risk assessments.

Quantitative vegetation reconstruction in the Central North China Plain of the last 3000 years based on the REVEALS model

The North China Plain is a region where the natural vegetation was increasingly influenced by human activities from ∼3000 cal yr B.P. (Zhang et al., 2017; Peng, 2019). We used pollen, charcoal and sediments from the Dacaozhuang Holocene profile in Ningjinpo, central North China Plain, in combination estimates of relative pollen productivity, to quantitatively reconstruct vegetation changes over the last 3000 years using the REVEALS model. Our aims were to study the combined effects of climate change and human activities on the zonal vegetation. The principal findings are as follows. 1) During 3000–2600 cal yr B.P., the study area was strongly influenced by the Yellow River, leading to a complex pollen source area, which is inappropriate for REVEALS models. Since 2600 cal yr B.P., the sediments were mainly supplied by rivers originating in the Taihang Mountains, and the reconstructed tree coverage was generally less than 20%, while that of herbaceous plants such as Artemisia, Poaceae and Asteraceae was more than 50%. This indicates that the study area was predominantly grassland with trees sparsely distributed in the mountains. 2) Crop plants (Poaceae≥35 μm, and Fagopyrum), and the occurrence of synanthropic plants like Brassicaceae and Urtica/Humulus, together with a high sedimentary content of coarse charcoal particles (>100 μm), indicate substantial disturbance of the natural vegetation by human activities from 2600 cal yr B.P. 3) During the Medieval Warm Period (1300–600 cal yr B.P.), the concentration of charcoal and the proportion of synanthropic plants were relatively high, indicating strong human activity. Nevertheless, the proportion of trees, dominated by Pinus and Quercus, was substantially higher (increasing to more than 19%) compared with the previous interval, indicating an increase in forest vegetation and thus a strong climatic influence on the vegetation. 4) During the periods of the Ming and Qing Dynasties (after 500 cal yr B.P.), the concentration of charcoal and crop plants reached a maximum and the tree coverage decreased substantially (to 4.8%), indicating the highest level of human influence on the vegetation. The shift to a cool and dry climate may also have contributed to the reduction of trees within the landscape.

Earlier crop flowering caused by global warming alleviated by irrigation

Enabling crop flowering within an optimal calendar window minimises long-term risk of abiotic stress exposure, improving prospects for attaining potential yield. Here, we define the optimal flowering period (OFP) as the calendar time in which long-term risk of frost, water and heat stress are collectively minimised. Using the internationally-renowned farming systems model Agricultural Systems Production Systems sIMulator, we characterised combined effects of climate change and extreme climatic events on the OFPs of barley, durum wheat, canola, chickpeas, fababean and maize from 1910 to 2021. We generate response surfaces for irrigated and dryland conditions using a range of representative sowing times for early and late maturity genotypes. Global warming truncated crop lifecycles, shifting forward flowering of winter crops by 2–43 d in dryland environments, and by −6–19 d in environments with irrigation. Alleviation of water stress by irrigation delayed OFPs by 3–25 d or 11–30 d for early and late maturity winter crops, respectively, raising average yields of irrigated crops by 44%. Even so, irrigation was unable to completely negate the long-term yield penalty caused by the climate crisis; peak yields respectively declined by 24% and 13% for rainfed and irrigated crops over the 111 years simulation duration. We conclude with two important insights: (a) use of irrigation broadens OFPs, providing greater sowing time flexibility and likelihood of realising potential yields compared with dryland conditions and (b), the most preferable maturity durations for irrigated winter and summer crops to maximise potential yields are early-sown long-season (late) and later-sown short-season (early) maturity types, respectively.

Influences of summer warming and nutrient availability on Salix glauca L. growth in Greenland along an ice to sea gradient

The combined effects of climate change and nutrient availability on Arctic vegetation growth are poorly understood. Archaeological sites in the Arctic could represent unique nutrient hotspots for studying the long-term effect of nutrient enrichment. In this study, we analysed a time-series of ring widths of Salix glauca L. collected at nine archaeological sites and in their natural surroundings along a climate gradient in the Nuuk fjord region, Southwest Greenland, stretching from the edge of the Greenlandic Ice Sheet in the east to the open sea in the west. We assessed the temperature-growth relationship for the last four decades distinguishing between soils with past anthropogenic nutrient enrichment (PANE) and without (controls). Along the East–West gradient, the inner fjord sites showed a stronger temperature signal compared to the outermost ones. Individuals growing in PANE soils had wider ring widths than individuals growing in the control soils and a stronger climate-growth relation, especially in the inner fjord sites. Thereby, the individuals growing on the archaeological sites seem to have benefited more from the climate warming in recent decades. Our results suggest that higher nutrient availability due to past human activities plays a role in Arctic vegetation growth and should be considered when assessing both the future impact of plants on archaeological sites and the general greening in landscapes with contrasting nutrient availability.

Urban stormwater management for sustainable and resilient measures and practices: a review.

Stormwater drainage in urban areas has become a challenge due to the rapid and random growth of urban areas, removal of vegetation, reduction in the effectiveness of drainage infrastructure, and climate change. Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS), Low Impact Development (LID), Best Management Practices (BMP), Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) and the Sponge City Programme (SCP) are various aspects for urban stormwater management in a few parts of the world. Urban hydrology plays a vital role in the urban stormwater management system. However, optimal results can only be possible when the combined effect of climate change, land use patterns, reuse, treatment, ecology, and societal aspects are considered. There is a need to provide sustainable and resilient urban drainage systems to manage stormwater more efficiently. The present review has thoroughly discussed various features related to urban stormwater management, highlighted key drivers, identified knowledge gaps in each of the measures and/or practices, recommended future research needs of urban stormwater management to become sustainable and resilient. Integrated modelling approaches considering various key drivers including reuse and real time governance enables stormwater management to be sustainable and resilient in urban environments.