Columbia River Basin Research Articles

Asymmetry of Western U.S. River Basin Sensitivity to Seasonally Varying Climate Warming

AbstractFuture climate warming over the Western U.S. (WUS) is projected to be greater in summer than winter. Previous model‐based studies of large river basins in the WUS showed much different annual streamflow responses to warming in warm versus cool seasons. However, it remains unclear how the annual streamflow relative responses to seasonal warming (asymmetry) and drivers of the response asymmetry vary across the entire WUS at the catchment‐scale, and how the simulated results compare with observations. Here, we investigate the asymmetry of annual streamflow responses to warm versus cool season warming at the HUC‐8 level across the entire WUS using model simulations and observations. We also examine the asymmetries' relationship with land surface and hydroclimate characteristics, and the primary contributor to the response asymmetry for each HUC‐8 basin. The HUC‐8 level results reveal more complexity than do earlier analyses of much larger river basins. Over 25% of WUS area has annual streamflow increases in response to warming in at least one season (mostly cool season). Annual streamflow is most sensitive to warm season warming in cool, inland basins, especially the northern Columbia River basin and most of the Upper Colorado River Basin, and most sensitive to cool season warming in warm, coastal basins. This bi‐directional pattern is enhanced by vegetation coverage but weakened by long‐term snowpack decline. In coldest basins with short snow‐free seasons, net radiation changes dominate the streamflow response asymmetry. For basins with cold‐to‐intermediate temperatures, vapor pressure deficit changes dominate. For warmest basins, surface resistance changes dominate.

Detection of Multidecadal Changes in Vegetation Dynamics and Association with Intra-Annual Climate Variability in the Columbia River Basin

Remotely-sensed Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a useful metric for assessing changes in vegetation cover and greeness over time and space. Satellite-derived LAI measurements can be used to assess these intra- and inter-annual vegetation dynamics and how they correlate with changing regional and local climate conditions. The detection of such changes at local and regional levels is challenged by the underlying continuity and extensive missing values of high-resolution spatio-temporal vegetation data. Here, the feasibility of functional data analysis methods was evaluated to improve the exploration of such data. In this paper, an investigation of multidecadal variation in LAI is conducted in the Columbia River Watershed, as detected by NOAA Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite imaging. The inter- and intra-annual correlation of LAI with temperature and precipitation were then investigated using data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global atmospheric re-analysis (ERA-Interim) in the period 1996–2017. A functional cluster analysis model was implemented to identify regions in the Columbia River Watershed that exhibit similar long-term greening trends. Across this region, a multidecadal trend toward earlier and higher annual LAI peaks was detected, and strong correlations were found between earlier and higher LAI peaks and warmer temperatures in late winter and early spring. Although strongly correlated to LAI, maximum temperature and precipitation do not demonstrate a similar strong multidecadal trend over the studied time period. The modeling approach is proficient for analyzing tens or hundreds of thousands of sampled sites without parallel processing or high-performance computing (HPC).

Local-thermal-gradient and large-scale-circulation impacts on turbine-height wind speed forecasting over the Columbia River Basin

Abstract. We investigate the sensitivity of turbine-height wind speed forecast to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge (CRG) and Columbia River Basin (CRB) for two typical weather phenomena, i.e., local-thermal-gradient-induced marine air intrusion and a cold frontal passage. Four types of turbine-height wind forecast anomalies and their associated IC uncertainties related to local thermal gradients and large-scale circulations are identified using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. The four SOM types are categorized into two patterns, each accounting for half of the ensemble members. The first pattern corresponds to IC uncertainties that alter the wind forecast through a modulating weather system, which produces the strongest wind anomalies in the CRG and CRB. In the second pattern, the moderate uncertainties in local thermal gradient and large-scale circulation jointly contribute to wind forecast anomaly. We analyze the cross section of wind and temperature anomalies through the gorge to explore the evolution of vertical features of each SOM type. The turbine-height wind anomalies induced by large-scale IC uncertainties are more concentrated near the front. In contrast, turbine-height wind anomalies induced by the local IC thermal uncertainties are found above the surface thermal anomalies. Moreover, the wind forecast accuracy in the CRG and CRB is limited by IC uncertainties in a few specific regions, e.g., the 2 m temperature within the basin and large-scale circulation over the northeast Pacific around 140∘ W.

Advances in hexagon mesh-based flow direction modeling

Watershed delineation and flow direction representation are the foundations of streamflow routing in spatially distributed hydrologic modeling. A recent study showed that hexagon-based watershed discretization has several advantages compared to the traditional Cartesian (latitude–longitude) discretization, such as uniform connectivity and compatibility with other Earth system model components based on unstructured mesh systems (e.g., oceanic models). Despite these advantages, hexagon-based discretization has not been widely adopted by the current generation of hydrologic models. One major reason is that there is no existing model that can delineate hexagon-based watersheds while maintaining accurate representations of flow direction across various spatial resolutions. In this study, we explored approaches such as spatial resampling and hybrid breaching-filling stream burning techniques to improve watershed delineation and flow direction representation using a newly developed hexagonal mesh watershed delineation model (HexWatershed). We applied these improvements to the Columbia River basin and performed 16 simulations with different configurations. The results show that (1) spatial resampling modulates flow direction around headwaters and provides an opportunity to extract subgrid information; and (2) stream burning corrects the flow directions in mountainous areas with complex terrain features.

Dam Construction and Genealogy of Cultural Representation in Columbia River Basin

Dam Construction and Genealogy of Cultural Representation in Columbia River Basin

Cultural and educational releases of salmon in areas blocked by major hydroelectric projects on the Columbia River

Abstract Salmon are revered by Pacific Northwest Tribes as a central figure in their cultural and spiritual identity and have been a critical food resource for millennia. Historic commercial overfishing and hydropower development on the Columbia River have devastated salmon runs and altered tribal communities. Before European settlement of North America, most Pacific Northwest Tribal economies were based on obtaining salmon for food and bartering for other commodities. Despite extensive efforts to promote salmon recovery in downstream areas, most salmon populations continue to struggle throughout the Columbia River Basin. Over 1,800 km of historical salmon habitat remain inaccessible upstream of Chief Joseph and Grand Coulee dams due to lack of fish passage at these facilities. The Indian Tribes of the upper Columbia Basin are working collectively on salmon reintroduction efforts through both a long-term scientific phased approach and near-term cultural and educational releases. This paper will briefly outline the Phased approach and provide detail on the initial results of some recent cultural and educational releases of salmon in the blocked area. The cultural and educational releases had a goal of reconnecting the people with the salmon and the salmon with historic habitats. These salmon release events were diverse and included school children releasing juvenile fish they raised in the classroom, releasing adult salmon to swim free and reproduce, and tribal members harvesting salmon from their ancestral waters. Ceremonies were held to celebrate the significance of salmon to the tribal cultures and the salmon's return home. In addition to the ceremonies, some fish were tagged to evaluate survival and behavior and to begin to document the effectiveness of trap and haul efforts. The effort resulted in anadromous salmon reintroduction to their traditional waters for the first time in 60 to 110 years. These efforts have generated tremendous interest from the press and given the people of the region a glimpse at what is possible, building momentum for the larger Phased reintroduction effort.

Mechanism of northern pike invasion in the Columbia River Basin

Mechanism of northern pike invasion in the Columbia River Basin

Stochastic Dominance of Renewables to Replace Hydropower Under Policy Uncertainty

Regional energy managers and decision-makers face a world where climate change is introducing uncertainty over future power generation, as well as financial impacts from potential carbon taxation. A unique opportunity to explore is the rising interest in hydropower substitution with renewable resources, either to promote ecosystem services such as increasing the survivability of migratory fish or mitigating future loss of generation due to severe drought conditions. To address these concerns, a case study of the Columbia River Basin was conducted to evaluate the substitution of four Lower Snake River dams. A multistage methodology was chosen to evaluate grid adequacy, climate change performance, and the implications of tax uncertainty on the substitution portfolios. A specialized energy model was used to provide the adequacy and input for a Monte Carlo simulation to test the impact of an uncertain tax. The outcome is a carbon tax strategy region that suggests preferences under different taxes for risk-averse decision makers, alongside adequacy and climate metrics. We conclude that policymakers should consider a carbon tax between <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\$ $ </tex-math></inline-formula> 86 and <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\$ $ </tex-math></inline-formula> 132 to incentivize a portfolio that marginally reduces emissions compared to the pre-dam removal baseline or a tax greater than <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\$ $ </tex-math></inline-formula> 135 to incentivize another portfolio that significantly reduces emissions. This study makes three important contributions: (1) it provides a methodology for evaluating electricity generating portfolios in the presence of a carbon tax, (2) it evaluates adequacy metrics for technology substitutions with intermittent alternatives and climate change impacts, and (3) it offers specific guidance for energy policy making.

Influence of environmental conditions at spawning sites and migration routes on adaptive variation and population connectivity in Chinook salmon.

Many species that undergo long breeding migrations, such as anadromous fishes, face highly heterogeneous environments along their migration corridors and at their spawning sites. These environmental challenges encountered at different life stages may act as strong selective pressures and drive local adaptation. However, the relative influence of environmental conditions along the migration corridor compared with the conditions at spawning sites on driving selection is still unknown. In this study, we performed genome–environment associations (GEA) to understand the relationship between landscape and environmental conditions driving selection in seven populations of the anadromous Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)—a species of important economic, social, cultural, and ecological value—in the Columbia River basin. We extracted environmental variables for the shared migration corridors and at distinct spawning sites for each population, and used a Pool‐seq approach to perform whole genome resequencing. Bayesian and univariate GEA tests with migration‐specific and spawning site‐specific environmental variables indicated many more candidate SNPs associated with environmental conditions at the migration corridor compared with spawning sites. Specifically, temperature, precipitation, terrain roughness, and elevation variables of the migration corridor were the most significant drivers of environmental selection. Additional analyses of neutral loci revealed two distinct clusters representing populations from different geographic regions of the drainage that also exhibit differences in adult migration timing (summer vs. fall). Tests for genomic regions under selection revealed a strong peak on chromosome 28, corresponding to the GREB1L/ROCK1 region that has been identified previously in salmonids as a region associated with adult migration timing. Our results show that environmental variation experienced throughout migration corridors imposed a greater selective pressure on Chinook salmon than environmental conditions at spawning sites.

Considering the Revolution

Considering the Revolution

Examining the Food-Energy-Water-Environment Nexus in Transboundary River Basins through a Human Dimension Lens: Columbia River Basin

AbstractPrevious food-energy-water-environment (FEWE) nexus studies have primarily focused on technical aspects, such as data analysis and model development. However, to inform policy and the resul...

Soil nitrification response to dairy digestate and inorganic ammonium sources depends on soil pH and nitrifier abundances

AbstractTo reduce CH4 emissions, some dairy operations use manure as feedstock for anaerobic digesters, after which the nonvolatilized portion forms a digestate effluent with high NH4+ content that is used as fertilizer. When applied to soil, N fertilizers are subject to nitrification, where NH3–oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) oxidize NH3 to NO2–, NO2––oxidizing bacteria (NOB) oxidize NO2– to NO3−, and N oxides are produced from biotic and abiotic reactions. This study used soil microcosms to evaluate the properties of nitrification in response to the addition of N as digestate vs. NH4Cl in soils from the different climatic regions of the western Oregon coastal plain (CP) and eastern Oregon Columbia River basin (CRB). In each soil, properties of NH3 oxidation or N oxide accumulation did not differ when N was provided via digestate or NH4Cl over the normal temperature range; however, nitrification rates, communities, and products differed between soils. The average nitrification rate in CP soil was almost twofold higher than in CRB soil (P ≤ .001), despite no significant differences in AOB activity or AOB amoA copy numbers. With N addition, AOA activity also increased in CP soil, where AOA amoA copy numbers were fivefold higher than CRB soil (P &lt; .002). Accumulation of NO2– only in CRB soil was likely due to NOB inhibition by high NH3 concentrations (∼560 μM) present at the high pH of CRB soil (8.5). Overall, nitrification was dictated by differences in edaphic properties, temperature, and nitrifier communities more than N source.

Doppler-Lidar Evaluation of HRRR-Model Skill at Simulating Summertime Wind Regimes in the Columbia River Basin during WFIP2

AbstractComplex-terrain locations often have repeatable near-surface wind patterns, such as synoptic gap flows and local thermally forced flows. An example is the Columbia River Valley in east-central Oregon-Washington, a significant wind-energy-generation region and the site of the Second Wind-Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). Data from three Doppler lidars deployed during WFIP2 define and characterize summertime wind regimes and their large-scale contexts, and provide insight into NWP model errors by examining differences in the ability of a model [NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR-version1)] to forecast wind-speed profiles for different regimes. Seven regimes were identified based on daily time series of the lidar-measured rotor-layer winds, which then suggested two broad categories. First, in three regimes the primary dynamic forcing was the large-scale pressure gradient. Second, in two regimes the dominant forcing was the diurnal heating-cooling cycle (regional sea-breeze-type dynamics), including the marine intrusion previously described, which generates strong nocturnal winds over the region. The other two included a hybrid regime and a non-conforming regime. For the large-scale pressure-gradient regimes, HRRR had wind-speed biases of ~1 m s−1 and RMSEs of 2-3 m s−1. Errors were much larger for the thermally forced regimes, owing to the premature demise of the strong nocturnal flow in HRRR. Thus, the more dominant the role of surface heating in generating the flow, the larger the errors. Major errors could result from surface heating of the atmosphere, boundary-layer responses to that heating, and associated terrain interactions. Measurement/modeling research programs should be aimed at determining which modeled processes produce the largest errors, so those processes can be improved and errors reduced.

Passive Integrated Transponder Tag Monitoring Reveals Complex Migration and Life History Patterns in Mountain Whitefish in Upper Columbia River Tributaries

AbstractMountain Whitefish Prosopium williamsoni is a native salmonid distributed throughout the Columbia River basin, but little is known about the life history traits of tributary‐specific populations. We captured and tagged 129 Mountain Whitefish with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags between 2010 and 2015 at a weir on the Twisp River, Washington, to assess migration patterns. Detection records suggested that two populations of Mountain Whitefish overlap in the Twisp River during spring: resident fish that spawn in the Twisp River (42% of fish) and migrant fish that spawn in the Okanogan River (58% of fish). The median entry day into the Twisp River was similar for resident (April 17) and migrant (April 16) populations, but median exit day was significantly earlier for migrant (July 2) than for resident fish (November 6). Migrant fish exited the Methow basin and traveled at 14.1 river kilometers per day, passing the lower Okanogan River PIT antenna with a median date of September 17. After spawning and overwintering in the Okanogan River with a median exit date of March 16, these fish returned to the Methow basin traveling at 22.1 river kilometers per day. These results improve our understanding of Mountain Whitefish life history and habitat use in tributaries upstream of Wells Dam, Washington.

Migration and survival of Okanagan River Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus nerka, 2012\u20132019

BackgroundOkanagan River Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus nerka (Okanagan Sockeye) are one of two remaining self-sustaining Sockeye Salmon populations in the Columbia River Basin. We used detection histories of smolts implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags between 2012 and 2019 to estimate survival and behavioral metrics during reintroduction efforts and changing environmental conditions over the monitoring period.ResultsSmolts migrating to McNary Dam, whose route includes 130 km of the Okanagan River and 388 km of the Columbia River, generally had high survival (mean of 87.0% per 100 km) and fast migration speeds (up to 50 km/day) relative to other salmonids in the region. Smolt-to-adult returns (SARs) ranged from 0.4 to 6.1% and were greater for fish originating from Skaha Lake compared to cohorts tagged in Osoyoos Lake. Most adults returned after 2 years in the ocean (69%), followed by jacks (27%), and adults that spent 3 years at sea (4%), though Skaha Lake adults had a significantly younger age structure than cohorts from Osoyoos Lake. Survival of adults from Bonneville Dam (rkm 235) upstream to Wells Dam (rkm 830) was generally high (80–92%), and migration speed decreased in upstream reaches. Survival from Wells Dam to the Okanagan River was only estimable in 2018, where 64% of adults survived to the spawning grounds. The upstream migration of adult Okanagan Sockeye was significantly compromised during the drought of 2015 when less than 5% of Okanagan Sockeye that returned to the Columbia River reached spawning grounds.ConclusionsOur results indicate that Okanagan Sockeye have exceptional survival and migratory ability relative to other salmonids, though poor ocean conditions combined with warming water temperatures in freshwater habitats in recent years have the potential to devastate the population. The success of reintroduction efforts to increase spatial structure and diversity of Okanagan Sockeye is, therefore, critical to maintaining the population in years to come.

Genomic region associated with run timing has similar haplotypes and phenotypic effects across three lineages of Chinook salmon.

Conserving life‐history variation is a stated goal of many management programs, but the most effective means by which to accomplish this are often far from clear. Early‐ and late‐migrating forms of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) face unequal pressure from natural and anthropogenic forces that may alter the impacts of genetic variation underlying heritable migration timing. Genomic regions of chromosome 28 are known to be strongly associated with migration variation in adult Chinook salmon, but it remains unclear whether there is consistent association among diverse lineages and populations in large basins such as the Columbia River. With high‐throughput genotyping (GT‐seq) and phenotyping methods, we examined the association of genetic variation in 28 markers (spanning GREB1L to ROCK1 of chromosome 28) with individual adult migration timing characteristics gleaned from passive integrated transponder recordings of over 5000 Chinook salmon from the three major phylogeographic lineages that inhabit the Columbia River Basin. Despite the strong genetic differences among them in putatively neutral genomic regions, each of the three lineages exhibited very similar genetic variants in the chromosome 28 region that were significantly associated with adult migration timing phenotypes. This is particularly notable for the interior stream‐type lineage, which exhibits an earlier and more constrained freshwater entry than the other lineages. In both interior stream‐type and interior ocean‐type lineages of Chinook salmon, heterozygotes of the most strongly associated linkage groups had largely intermediate migration timing relative to homozygotes, and results indicate codominance or possibly marginal partial dominance of the allele associated with early migration. Our results lend support to utilization of chromosome 28 variation in tracking and predicting run timing in these lineages of Chinook salmon in the Columbia River.

Comparison of Observations and Predictions of Daytime Planetary-Boundary-Layer Heights and Surface Meteorological Variables in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is an 18-month field campaign in the Pacific Northwest U.S.A., whose goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical-weather-prediction forecasts in complex terrain. The WFIP2 campaign involved the deployment of a large suite of in situ and remote sensing instrumentation, including eight 915-MHz wind-profiling radars, and surface meteorological stations. The evolution and annual variability of the daytime convective planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) height is investigated using the wind-profiling radars. Three models with different horizontal grid spacing are evaluated: the Rapid Refresh, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, and its nested version. The results are used to assess errors in the prediction of PBL height within the experimental and control versions of the models, with the experimental versions including changes and additions to the model parametrizations developed during the field campaign, and the control version using the parametrizations present in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational version of the models at the start of the project. Results show that the high-resolution models outperform the low-resolution versions, the experimental versions perform better compared with the control versions, model PBL height estimations are more accurate on cloud-free days, and model estimates of the PBL height growth rate are more accurate than model estimates of the rate of decay. Finally, using surface sensors, we assess surface meteorological variables, finding improved surface irradiance and, to a lesser extent, improved 2-m temperature in the experimental version of the model.

An experimental evaluation of the efficacy of imaging flow cytometry (FlowCam) for detecting invasive Dreissened and Corbiculid bivalve veligers

Hassett W, Zimmerman J, Rollwagen-Bollens G, Bollens SM, Counihan TD. 2021. An experimental evaluation of the efficacy of imaging flow cytometry (FlowCam) for detecting invasive Dreissened and Corbiculid bivalve veligers. Lake Reserv Manage. 37:406–417. Zebra (Dreissena polymorpha) and quagga (D. bugensis) mussels, first introduced from central Asia into the Great Lakes of North America in the late 1980s, have crossed the continental divide and more recently spread across western North America. At the same time, several new technologies have been developed for the early detection of dreissenids, including the FlowCam, a digital imaging-in-flow instrument, intended to detect dreissenid planktonic larvae (veligers). However, the efficacy of this technology has rarely been tested. We experimentally evaluated the FlowCam’s ability to capture identifiable images of quagga mussel veligers under 2 different types of conditions: (i) deionized water, and (ii) Columbia River Basin water (CRBW), including natural sediment and native plankton. We further evaluated the FlowCam’s ability to distinguish between dreissenid veligers and corbiculid veligers (Asian clam, Corbicula fluminea). We interpret our results to indicate that the FlowCam can consistently detect dreissenid veligers across a range of veliger densities. Moreover, the presence of other plankton and detritus only slightly affected dreissenid detection by the FlowCam. However, the orientation of individual bivalve veligers as they were imaged by the FlowCam precluded specific identification of a substantial proportion (24.8%) of veligers as either dreissenid or corbiculid. We suggest that the FlowCam is an important detection tool best utilized as part of a multifaceted approach, including traditional microscopy and possibly environmental DNA.

Observational case study of a persistent cold pool and gap flow in the Columbia River Basin

AbstractPersistent cold pools form as layers of cold stagnant air within topographical depressions mainly during wintertime when the near-surface air cools and/or the air aloft warms and daytime surface heating is insufficient to mix out the stable layer. An area often affected by persistent cold pools is the Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest, when a high-pressure system east of the Cascade Range promotes radiative cooling and easterly flow. The only major outflow for the easterly flow is through the narrow Columbia River Gorge which cuts through the north-south oriented Cascade Range and often experiences very strong gap flows. Observations collected during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) are used to study a persistent cold pool in the Columbia River Basin between 10-19 Jan 2017 which was associated with a strong gap flow. We used data from various remote sensing and in situ instruments and a optimal estimation physical retrieval to obtain thermodynamic profiles to address the temporal and spatial characteristics of the cold pool and gap flow and to investigate the physical processes involved during formation, maintenance and decay. While large-scale temperature advection occurred during all phases, we found that the cold pool vertical structure was modulated by the existence of low-level clouds and that turbulent shear-induced mixing and downslope wind storms likely played a role during its decay.

Exploring the operational impacts of climate change and glacier loss in the upper Columbia River Basin, Canada

AbstractThe mountainous watersheds of western Canada are generally thought to be in a state of transition from snow‐dominated to hybrid regimes. In stream networks that are regulated, the effects of this transition on streamflow can have compelling operational consequences. Seasonal magnitude changes may impact spill‐risk management, while changes in the composition of summer runoff may increase its variability and reduce the forecasting capabilities of state variables like peak snow water equivalent. Though glacier loss can have a considerable impact on summer runoff, few studies explicitly model the ongoing glacier recession in conjunction with other primary hydrological processes. In this study, we incorporate glacier dynamics from a previous run of the Regional Glaciation Model into the University of British Columbia Watershed Model via the Raven modelling framework. We use this modelling system to explore potential changes under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 to the hydrology of the Mica Basin, a regulated watershed containing the headwaters of the Columbia River. Our results project statistically significant increases in spring flow in future eras, which may force lower reservoir drafting in late winter, creating potential for energy shortfalls in early spring. We project the coefficient of variation of summer runoff generally goes unchanged in future eras as does the summer runoff forecasting capability of April 1st SWE. Hence, despite modelled glacier loss and reduced snowmelt contribution, our study does not reject the null hypothesis that the predictability of the Mica Basin's summer runoff is unchanged in future eras. We explore these results in detail because they superficially appear to contrast the conventional conceptualization that reduced snowmelt negatively affects the predictive powers of snowpack and glacier loss increases the variability of runoff. We argue that our results' apparent discordance from convention displays the complexities inherent in isolating the effects of changes to a single water balance component when other components are also non‐stationary and highlights the benefits of using modelling to more explicitly explore such implications.