Colorado Front Range Research Articles

Debris flow behavior during the September 2013 rainstorm event in the Colorado Front Range, USA

Debris flows are highly unpredictable and mechanically chaotic phenomena that can spread or branch away from an expected path or pre-existing channel, a phenomenon termed avulsion. While avulsion is expected to occur over long time periods on mature debris fans, it can also occur on short time scales and outside of active portions of fans. This was the case during the 9–13 September 2013 rainstorm event that triggered over 1000 debris flows in the Colorado Front Range. This research examines the geomorphic and topographic characteristics of debris flows during this event to identify the controlling variables of avulsion during singular events. Avulsion was observed in 1/3 of the debris flows, which were classified into 5 distinct behaviors and thus hazard implications, including directional change, distributary, split, free spreading, and braided. Debris flows that avulsed were twice as long and 6 times more likely to have path obstructions than non-avulsed paths. Additionally, locations along a debris-flow path with low lateral confinement and decreasing slope angles were more prone to avulsion. The high frequency of avulsed debris flows during the 2013 rainstorm event emphasizes the importance of considering avulsion potential during debris-flow mitigation design. The common characteristics of avulsed flows highlighted here could be incorporated into future hazard modeling efforts.

Modeling hydrologic processes associated with soil saturation and debris flow initiation during the September 2013 storm, Colorado Front Range

Seven days of extreme rainfall during September 2013 produced more than 1100 debris flows in the Colorado Front Range, about 78% of which occurred on south-facing slopes (SFS). Previously published soil moisture (volumetric water content) observations suggest that SFS were wetter than north-facing slopes (NFS) during the event, which contrasts with soil moisture patterns observed during normal conditions. Various causes have been hypothesized for the preferential saturation of SFS, but those hypotheses remain largely untested. Here, we analyze the soil moisture patterns using additional soil moisture observations, determine the hydrologic processes controlling the preferential saturation of SFS, and evaluate the importance of soil moisture in predicting the debris flow initiation sites. Soil moisture patterns are simulated using the Equilibrium Moisture from Topography, Vegetation, and Soil (EMT + VS) model. Five hypotheses are tested that may have influenced the soil moisture reversal including higher rainfall rates, lower interception rates, lower saturated water content, thinner soils, and reduced deep drainage on SFS. The EMT + VS model is coupled with an infinite slope stability model to produce factor of safety maps. The hypotheses are tested by comparing the modeled soil moisture to soil moisture observations and the debris flow initiation sites. The results suggest that differences in interception and deep drainage between SFS and NFS were primarily responsible for producing wetter SFS, but the soil moisture pattern likely played a smaller role than vegetation and slope in determining where debris flows initiated. The final model predicts instability at approximately 72% of the observed debris flow initiation sites.

Probability of occurrence and phenology of pine wilt disease transmission by insect vectors in the Rocky Mountains

Abstract1. Pine wilt disease, caused by pinewood nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus; abbreviated ‘PWN’), is a damaging and globally distributed insect‐vectored forest pathogen. Native forest tree mortality associated with PWN is newly reported from the Front Range of Colorado, but there is no regional information on PWN frequency or biology of local insect vectors, limiting management options.2. A sampling array was established to survey PWN in native pines (Pinus ponderosa) and longhorn beetles (Monochamus clamator and M. scutellatus) over 2 years and across natural and urban forest landscapes. We developed flight phenology models and evaluated effects of landscape factors on vector abundance and probability of infection.3. Flight phenology was similar for vectors; Monochamus flight initiated in mid‐July and continued into October for both species. We report the first M. clamator–PWN association in the United States. PWN was distributed in the region at rates lower than reported from its putative native range: 3.6 and 4.2% of sampled pines and beetles, respectively, tested positive for PWN. Many host trees were outwardly asymptomatic; infection frequency in tree populations varied considerably and four epicentres of vector infectivity were identified.4. Epicentres varied in timing of anomalous infective vector frequency – some epicentres had high abundances of infected beetles early in the growing season whereas others had high abundances of infected beetles late in the growing season, though PWN‐positive beetles were captured at all sites. Monochamus populations were found primarily in natural forest stands but migrated to urban areas late in the growing season. The only landscape factor positively correlated with abundances of both Monochamus species was distance to previous wildfire.5. PWN epicentres in the southern Rocky Mountains exhibit specific temporal windows of vector activity that differ from proximal sites. Urban forests, where the disease was initially observed in the region, do not support vector populations. Our results suggest that natural forest landscapes in the region are important reservoirs of PWN, and vector populations are especially abundant near burned stands. Collectively, our findings are important for timing disease management activities appropriately and help to distinguish priority areas for mitigation efforts.

Wildfire and Forest Thinning Shift Floral Resources and Nesting Substrates to Impact Native Bee Biodiversity in Ponderosa Pine Forests of the Colorado Front Range

Wildfire and Forest Thinning Shift Floral Resources and Nesting Substrates to Impact Native Bee Biodiversity in Ponderosa Pine Forests of the Colorado Front Range

Evaluating oil and gas contributions to ambient nonmethane hydrocarbon mixing ratios and ozone-related metrics in the Colorado Front Range

Recently, oil and natural gas (O&NG) production activities in the Denver-Julesburg Basin have expanded rapidly. Associated nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emissions contribute to photochemical formation of ground-level ozone and include benzene as well as other hazardous air pollutants. Using positive matrix factorization (PMF) and chemical mass balance (CMB) methods, we estimate how much O&NG activities and other sources contribute to morning NMHC mixing ratios measured from 2013 to mid-2016 at a site in Platteville, CO, in the Denver-Julesburg Basin, and at a contrasting site in downtown Denver. A novel adjoint sensitivity analysis method is then used to estimate corresponding contributions to ozone and ozone-linked mortality in the Denver region. Average 6–9 am NMHC mixing ratios in Platteville were seven times higher than those in Denver in 2013 but four times higher in 2016. CMB estimates that O&NG activities contributed to the Platteville (Denver) site an average of 96% (56%) of NMHC on a carbon basis while PMF indicated 92% (33%). Average vehicle-related contributions of NMHC are estimated as 41% by CMB and 53% by PMF in Denver. Estimates of the fractional contribution to potential ozone and ozone-linked mortality from O&NG activities are smaller while those from vehicles are larger than the NMHC contributions. CMB (PMF) indicate that greater than 78% (40%) of annual average benzene in Denver is attributable to vehicle emissions while greater than 75% (67%) of benzene in Platteville is attributable to O&NG activities.

Lessons on Older LGBTQ Individuals' Sexuality and Spirituality for Hospice and Palliative Care.

Hospice and palliative care are in the beginning stages of providing inclusive care to older lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer (LGBTQ) patients. This inclusivity is exceedingly more pressing given the growing population of out and aging LGBTQ individuals. Hospice and palliative literature recognizes that spirituality and religion can be fraught topics for LGBTQ patients. A few resources are available to help providers give more inclusive care. Few in hospice and palliative care, however, explicitly outline the direct connection for LGBTQ elders between their sexuality and their spiritual lives. 16 LGBTQ individuals born before 1964 were interviewed in the Colorado Front Range. Keeping with the tradition of critical theory, participants were asked "is there a connection for you between your sexuality and your spirituality? if so, what?" The interviews were analyzed using a qualitative conceptual content analysis method. All 16 participants responded that there was a connection for them. The participants expanded on this connection using five themes in their answers: the sexual act itself is spiritual; their authentic LGBTQ journey as spiritual; love/attraction is spiritual; spirituality and sexuality are inseparable; and finally, noting the ineffability of the sexuality-spirituality connection.

The geography of follicle pubescence in the Physocarpus opulifolius (Rosaceae) complex1,2

Taxonomic circumscription is a critical prerequisite for ecological, taxonomic, and systematics research but can be complicated by undetected patterns in morphological variation. Cryptic variation has long confounded the taxonomy of Physocarpus (Cambess.) Raf., with conflicting circumscriptions especially prevalent in the Physocarpus opulifolius (L.) Maxim. complex, which comprises P. opulifolius sensu stricto and Physocarpus intermedius (Rydb.) C.K.Schneid. Here, we assess variation for carpel and follicle pubescence, a key diagnostic character for the P. opulifolius s.l. complex. Data were collected from 748 herbarium accessions obtained from across the range of this complex in North America. We then assessed the statistical and geographic distribution of this variation. As suggested by Rydberg and others, follicle pubescence is bimodally distributed and exhibits a strong geographic signal. An eastern, glabrous (or nearly so) form occurs in temperate forests from the St. Lawrence River valley of Quebec west to the Upper Great Lakes region and south to the southern Appalachians (i.e., P. opulifolius s.s.), while a more western, densely pubescent form occurs from the Interior Highlands north to the Driftless Area, with disjunct populations in the Southeastern Plains of Alabama, Sand Hills of Nebraska, Black Hills of South Dakota, Front Range of Colorado, and Sierra Madre Oriental of northeastern Mexico (i.e., P. intermedius). We conclude that taxonomic recognition is warranted based on variation in follicle pubescence, which also has implications for downstream research (e.g., floristics, phylogenetics, and ecological niche modeling).

Summer runoff generation in foothill catchments of the Colorado Front Range

Climatic shifts, disturbances, and land-use change can alter hydrologic flowpaths, water quality, and water supply to downstream communities. Prior research investigating streamflow generation processes in mountainous areas has largely focused on high-elevation alpine and subalpine catchments; less is known about these processes in lower-elevation foothills and montane catchments. In these lower-elevation ecoregions, precipitation shifts seasonally from snow to rain, which can result in differing seasonal flowpaths. We analyzed stream water for electrical conductivity, SiO2, Ca, Mg, Na, Cl, SO4, K, and dissolved organic carbon on both a weekly and storm event basis from April to August 2018 in three small (<10 km2) foothill catchments, and one larger (63.2 km2) catchment extending from the foothills to the subalpine ecoregions, in the Colorado Front Range. Using two end-member hydrograph separations and concentration-runoff relationships, we inferred the dominant catchment-scale flowpaths of precipitation to the streams. We selected catchments with varying land use to investigate the relationship between these characteristics and hydrologic flowpaths. We observed that concentrations of lithogenic constituents generally increased and dissolved organic carbon decreased as seasonal runoff decreased in the three foothill catchments, reflecting a transition from shallow subsurface flowpaths to deeper subsurface flowpaths. Elevated SO4 and Cl concentrations during low-flow periods in two of our catchments suggest that historical or current anthropogenic activities, such as mining, application of road salt, and/or near-stream septic systems, affect local stream and groundwater chemistry. In a foothill catchment with anthropogenic and geologic impervious surfaces, streamflow during storm responses was sourced from faster, surficial flowpaths compared to a less disturbed neighboring catchment, highlighting the influence of anthropogenic land-use on runoff generation. This study provides insight into the fundamental hydrology of foothill catchments and how they may function in the future with human development, precipitation shifts and disturbances.

Increasing plant water stress and decreasing summer streamflow in response to a warmer and wetter climate in seasonally snow‐covered forests

AbstractWarming temperatures and precipitation changes are expected to alter water availability and increase drought stress in western North America, yet uncertainties remain in how concurrent changes in the amount and seasonality of precipitation interact with warming to affect hydrologic partitioning. We combined over a century of streamflow (Q) and climate observations with two decades of tree growth data and remotely sensed vegetation activity to quantify how temperature and precipitation interact to control hydrologic partitioning in the Front Range of Colorado, Boulder Creek Watershed. Temperature and precipitation significantly increased over the last five decades, with precipitation increasing primarily in winter (11.2 mm decade−1) and temperature increasing primarily during the growing season (0.12°C decade−1). In response to wetter winters and warmer summers, streamflow decreased −9.8 mm decade−1, with largest declines occurring during summer and autumn baseflow (−8.4 mm decade−1). Spring warming was associated with increases in episodic, short spring melt events, earlier and slower snowmelt and an increase in fraction of precipitation available to plants (catchment wetting or W). Warming during the growing season resulted in an increase in the fraction of W lost as evapotranspiration (ET), earlier and lower peaks in remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and lower tree ring width index (RWI). These analyses highlight that vegetation is becoming increasingly water limited even as increases in precipitation and slower melt increase plant water availability. Further, catchment‐derived metrics like the Horton Index (ET/W) provide insight in to how simultaneous changes in temperature, precipitation and melt impact vegetation across complex watersheds.

NWP and Radar Extrapolation: Comparisons and Explanation of Errors

AbstractThis paper examines nowcasts of precipitation from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRRv2) model from the summer of 2017 along the Colorado Front Range. It was found that model nowcasts (2 h or less) of precipitation amount were less skillful than extrapolation of the KFTG WSR-88-D data at a spatial scale of 120 km. It was also found that local-scale (mesoscale) influences on rainfall intensity and amount have a much greater impact on rainfall intensity than large-scale (synoptic) influences. Thus, large-scale trends are not useful for modifying extrapolation nowcasts on the local scale. Errors in the HRRR nowcasts are attributed to an inability of the model and data assimilation to resolve convergence along outflow boundaries and other terrain-influenced mesogamma-scale flows that contribute to storm formation and evolution. While the HRRRv2 1-h nowcasts were strongly correlated with observed precipitation events, the nowcast precipitation amounts were in error by more than a factor of 2 about 50% of the time, with half of the cases being overestimates and half being underestimates. A large fraction of the HRRRv2 overestimates were associated with stratiform rain events. It is speculated that this was a result of misinterpretation of the radar bright band as more intense precipitation aloft by the data assimilation scheme. A large fraction of the HRRRv2 underestimates occurred when the data assimilation and model were unable to fully resolve the low-level convergence along small-scale, narrow boundaries that led to new storm initiation and/or storm growth.

Assessing Preble’s Meadow Jumping Mouse (Zapus hudsonius preblei) Habitat and Connectivity for Conservation and Restoration

The federally-threatened Preble’s meadow jumping mouse (Zapus hudsonius preblei) occurs in riparian zones located along the foothills and plains in the Front Range of Colorado and Wyoming. Anthropogenic and natural disturbances have extensively modified Front Range riparian ecosystems affecting the location, quality, and connectivity of Z. h. preblei populations and habitat. Previous studies suggest that specific microhabitat conditions influence Z. h. preblei occurrence but no landscape-scale assessments have been conducted. To support conservation and management, we assessed Z. h. preblei habitat in Boulder County, Colorado by mapping riparian land cover composition, creating species distribution models (SDM), and evaluating connectivity between suitable habitat and known Z. h. preblei populations. The SDM identified 5381 ha of suitable Z. h. preblei habitat, compared with 252 ha of known Z. h. preblei occupied habitat. We found limited connections between Z. h. preblei populations in different watersheds, as urban development and large expanses of agricultural land disrupt connectivity. Our modeling approach yielded outcomes that are broadly relevant to understanding the distribution and management of geographically restricted species impacted by habitat loss and has provided insight into Z. h. preblei habitat and connectivity that cannot be gathered from field work alone.

Intra‐day variability of temperature and its near‐surface gradient with elevation over mountainous terrain: Comparing MODIS land surface temperature data with coarse and fine scale near‐surface measurements

AbstractWhere land surface air temperature data are not available, satellite land surface temperature are used. However, the coarse spatial resolution of satellite‐derived products may yield errors at the local scale. This work shows the differences between the MODIS Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity (MOD11A1) product and ground measurements at two different scales. We used data from 21 SNOTEL stations across the northern Front Range of Colorado to represent the coarse scale and 17 iButton temperature sensors across the Colorado State University Mountain Campus to represent the fine scale. We found significant differences in the temperature and its changes with elevation for the two spatial scales. At the fine scale, cold air drainage can induce an inversion of the temperature gradient with elevation. A higher correlation was found during the nighttime at the fine scale, while, at the coarse scale, higher correlations were observed during the daytime. On windy nights, temperatures do not cool as much as on calmer nights, and the coarse scale near‐surface temperature gradient with elevation persists, though the fine scale inversions do not develop. The near‐surface temperature gradients with elevation based on the MODIS pixels are similar to the ground‐based data at the coarse scale but not at the fine scale. Thus, one must be cautious in selecting the near‐surface temperature gradients with elevation for mountainous terrain when different scales are considered, and a proper validation of satellite products is necessary prior to their use to avoid the propagation of uncertainties.

Evaluating winter annual grass control and native species establishment following applications of indaziflam on rangeland

AbstractIndaziflam, a PRE herbicide option for weed management on rangeland and natural areas, provides long-term control of invasive winter annual grasses (IWAGs). Because indaziflam only provides PRE control of IWAGs, POST herbicides such as glyphosate can be mixed with indaziflam to control germinated IWAG seedlings. Field trials were conducted at three sites on the Colorado Front Range to evaluate glyphosate dose required to provide adequate POST IWAG control and compare long-term downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.), Japanese brome (Bromus arvensis L.), and feral rye (Secale cereale L.) control with indaziflam and imazapic. Two of the three sites were void of desirable species, so species establishment through drill seeding was assessed, while the remnant native plant response was assessed at the third site. Herbicide applications were made March 2014 through April 2015, and two sites were drill seeded with native species 9 mo after herbicide application. Yearly visual control evaluations, biomass of all plant species, and drilled species stand counts were collected. Glyphosate at 474 g ae ha−1 reduced B. tectorum biomass to zero, while glyphosate at 631 g ae ha−1 was needed to reduce biomass to near zero at the S. cereale site. At all three sites, only indaziflam treatments had significant reductions in IWAG biomass compared with the nontreated check at 3 yr after treatment (YAT). By 3 YAT in the drill-seeded sites, cool-season grass frequency ranged from 37% to 69% within indaziflam treatments (73 and 102 g ai ha−1), while imazapic treatments ranged from 0% to 26% cool-season grass frequency. In the site with a remnant native plant community, indaziflam treatments resulted in a 3- to 4-fold increase in native grass biomass. These results indicate that the multiyear IWAG control provided by indaziflam can aid in desirable species reestablishment through drill seeding or response of the remnant plant community.

Ecological niches of tree species drive variability in conifer regeneration abundance following fuels treatments

One goal of fuels treatments is to limit potential fire behavior by reducing overstory tree density, but this may precipitate regeneration, which contributes to increasing potential fire behavior over time. To understand factors that influence tree regeneration in treated stands, we compared abundance of advance and post treatment regeneration in 5–14-year-old thinning and mastication treatments covering approximately 2600 ha within two National Forests in Colorado, U.S.A. The study sites were dominated by two species with complimentary regeneration niches. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex P. Lawson & C. Lawson) is less shade tolerant, but more fire and drought resistant than Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco). We considered three critical features of the post treatment environment: species composition, forest structure (especially density), and site characteristics. Regeneration densities at the plot level varied considerably: 37% of the plots had no regeneration, while 15% had more than double the average density. High-density areas tended to occur in moist sites, mostly on north aspects that were dominated by Douglas-fir in the overstory. These areas are where wildfire mitigation benefits will likely deteriorate most rapidly. The vast majority (69%) of all regeneration was Douglas-fir. 31% of all regeneration occurred post treatment. In this group, ponderosa pine abundance was positively related to time since treatment but Douglas-fir was not, suggesting a stronger positive effect of treatment for ponderosa pine, although Douglas-fir was still more abundant. This is likely because treatments reduced the seed source for Douglas-fir more than for ponderosa pine while reducing total overstory density to create conditions that met the regeneration requirements of this shade intolerant species. Advanced regeneration was common throughout the study area, consisting of nearly 80% Douglas-fir and only 13% ponderosa pine. Although the abundance of advance regeneration decreased over time since treatment, likely due to mortality given that we encountered few sapling-sized trees, surviving trees reduce treatment longevity and have the potential for subsequent growth release and contribution to fuel hazard development. Conifer regeneration did not vary between mastication and thinning treatments. The impact of regeneration on treatment longevity was highly variable at smaller-than-stand scales. On the Colorado Front Range, moist sites with low overstory density and mature Douglas-fir to provide a seed source are where treatment effectiveness is likely to degrade most rapidly. These areas with abundant regeneration may be best left untreated, or managers should anticipate the need to re-treat them more frequently.

Site Selections and Topographic Design for Enduring Through Mountain Floods in Light of Feng-shui

This research explores safety for residing and enduring mountain floods. The research method includes following components: 1) studying geomorphic concepts of mountain floods and debris flows; 2) field investigations of the 2013 flood high impact zones and the optimal areas in foothills of Colorado Front Range to identify landform patterns in light of feng-shui, Chinese geomancy; and 3) studying successful precedents withstanding mountainous floods. From large-scale site selections to details of topographic design, this cross-culture study provides criteria and strategy on improving the site selection process for enduring mountain floods and sustaining mountain communities in Colorado and beyond.

Community Structure and Functional Role of Limber Pine (Pinus flexilis) in Treeline Communities in Rocky Mountain National Park

Research Highlights: Limber pine (Pinus flexilis) is abundant in some alpine treeline ecotone (ATE) communities east of the Continental Divide in Rocky Mountain National Park (RMNP) and the Colorado Front Range. Limber pine may be able to colonize the ATE under changing climate aided by directed seed dispersal by Clark’s nutcrackers (Nucifraga columbiana). Cronartium ribicola, white pine blister rust, is a growing threat to limber pine and may affect its functional role within the ATE. Background and Objectives: The ATE is sensitive, worldwide, to increasing temperature. However, the predicted advance of treeline under a changing climate may be modified by tree species composition and interactions. We aimed to (1) examine the conifer species composition and relative abundances in treeline communities with limber pine; (2) assess which functional roles limber pine assumes in these communities—tree island initiator, tree island component, and/or solitary tree; and (3) determine whether limber pine’s occurrence as a tree island initiator can be predicted by its relative abundance as a solitary tree. Materials and Methods: We selected four study sites in RMNP above subalpine forest limber pine stands. We sampled the nearest tree island to each of forty random points in each study site as well as solitary tree plots. Results: Across study sites, limber pine comprised, on average, 76% of solitary trees and was significantly more abundant as a solitary tree than Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) or subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa). Limber pine was a frequent component of multi-tree islands in three study sites, the major component in one study site, and dominated single-tree islands at two study sites. At three of four study sites, no species had significantly greater odds of being a tree island initiator. Limber pine was found less often as a tree island initiator than predicted from its relative abundance as a solitary tree, given the likely role of solitary trees in tree island formation.

Characterizing Thunderstorm Gust Fronts near Complex Terrain

ABSTRACTFire safety, aviation, wind energy, and structural-engineering operations are impacted by thunderstorm outflow boundaries or gust fronts (GFs) particularly when they occur in mountainous terrain. For example, during the 2013 Arizona Yarnell Hill Fire, 19 firefighters were killed as a result of sudden changes in fire behavior triggered by a passing GF. Knowledge of GF behavior in complex terrain also determines departure and landing operations at nearby airports, and GFs can induce exceptional structural loads on wind turbines. While most examinations of GF characteristics focus on well-organized convection in areas such as the Great Plains, here the investigation is broadened to explore GF characteristics that evolve near the complex terrain of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Using in situ observations from meteorological towers, as well as data from wind-profiling lidars and a microwave radiometer, 24 GF events are assessed to quantify changes in wind, temperature, humidity, and turbulence in the lowest 300 m AGL as these GFs passed over the instruments. The changes in magnitude for all variables are on average weaker in the Colorado Front Range than those typically observed from organized, severe storms in flatter regions. Most events from this study experience an increase in wind speed from 1 to 8 m s−1, relative humidity from 1% to 8%, and weak vertical motion from 0.3 to 3.6 m s−1 during GF passage while temperature drops by 0.2°–3°C and turbulent kinetic energy peaks at &gt;4 m2 s−2. Vertical profiles reveal that these changes vary little with height in the lowest 300 m.

Projecting End-of-Century Human Exposure from Tornadoes and Severe Hailstorms in Eastern Colorado: Meteorological and Population Perspectives

AbstractSevere convective storms along the Front Range and eastern plains of Colorado frequently produce tornadoes and hail, leading to substantial damage and crop losses annually. Determination of future human exposure from these events must consider both changes in meteorological conditions and population dynamics. Projections of EF0 + tornadoes (on the enhanced Fujita scale) and severe [1.0+ in. (25.4+ mm)] hail reports out to the year 2100 are computed using convective parameter proxies generated from dynamically downscaled GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (GFDL CM3), output by the WRF Model for control and future climate scenarios. The proxies suggest that tornado and hail days in the region may increase by up to one tornado day and three hail days per year by 2100, with the greatest increases across northeastern Colorado. Using a spatially explicit Monte Carlo model, projected future frequency and spatial changes in tornadoes and hail are superimposed with population projections from the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to provide a range of possible scenarios for end-of-century human exposure to tornadoes and hailstorms. Changes in hazard frequency and spatial distribution may amplify human exposure up to 117% for tornadoes and 178% for hail in the region by 2100, although specific results are sensitive to uncertain combinations of future overlaps between hazard spatial distribution and population. Findings presented herein not only will provide the public, insurers, policy makers, land-use planners, and researchers with estimates of potential future tornado and hail impacts in the Front Range region, they also will allow the weather enterprise to better understand, prepare for, and communicate tornado and hail risk to eastern Colorado communities.

Reconstructing historical outbreaks of mountain pine beetle in lodgepole pine forests in the Colorado Front Range

Regional-scale mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks in the first decade of the 2000s affected millions of hectares of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in western North American forests. In Colorado, 1.4 million ha exhibited high mortality. These events prompted questions about whether historical outbreaks reached the scale of this most recent event. We aimed to reconstruct past mortality events in lodgepole pine forests in the northern Colorado Front Range and to determine whether these were of similar extent to the 2000s outbreak. We identified logs of mountain pine beetle-killed trees based on visually identifiable signs of beetle infestation including lower bole breakage, egg galleries, exit holes, and the presence of blue stain. We collected cross-sections, developed tree ring chronologies and determined death dates through tree ring analysis. We detected five mortality events since the 1860s, including widely distributed mortality in the 1910s that was geographically as extensive as the 2000s outbreak in our study area. Trees killed were on average 232 years of age and 36 cm in diameter. In our study area, it takes about 200 years for a lodgepole pine to reach the size suitable for mountain pine beetle attack. We conclude that mountain pine beetle infestation signs remain useful for identifying mountain pine beetle-caused tree mortality for over a century and that well-distributed mountain pine beetle-caused mortality has occurred in the past in the northern Colorado Front Range. Future reconstructions of bark beetle-caused mortality may benefit from integrating the use of beetle symptomatology with growth releases. The inclusion of stand demography and fire history will present a holistic picture of how disturbance interactions create the mosaic of forest landscapes. Awareness of the disturbance histories in forests and the legacies of past events advances understanding of their ecology and will inform researchers and managers in developing management strategies to foster sustainable delivery of ecosystem services and maintain resiliency as climate change manifests.

Dry conifer forest restoration benefits Colorado Front Range avian communities.

Fire suppression has increased stand density and risk of severe, stand-replacing wildfire in lower elevation dry conifer forests of western North America, threatening ecological function. The U.S. Forest Service's Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program (CFLRP) aims to mitigate impacts to ecological function, while mandating effectiveness monitoring to verify restoration success. Expected benefits include improved conditions for biodiversity, but relatively few empirical studies evaluate restoration effects on biodiversity. We applied the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions program to survey birds in relation to CFLRP treatments along the Colorado Front Range in 2015-2017. We employed hierarchical models to analyze species occupancy and richness at 1972 points nested within 141 1-km2 grid cells. Our objectives were to investigate (1) species occupancy relationships with treatments at local (point) and landscape (grid) spatial scales, (2) potential mechanisms for treatment relationships considering species and treatment relationships with forest structure and composition (i.e., habitat relationships), and (3) treatment and habitat relationships with species richness. The data supported positive and negative point-level treatment relationships, suggesting uneven species distributions between treated and untreated points. At the grid scale, however, we only found positive species relationships with percent area treated, and accordingly, grid-level species richness increased with treatment extent. Potential mechanisms for treatment relationships included treatments generating foraging opportunities for aerial insectivores by opening the canopy, improving conditions for ground-associated species by increasing herbaceous growth, and limiting opportunities for shrub-nesting species by reducing shrub cover. Landscape-scale patterns suggest CFLRP treatments can benefit avian communities by generating habitat for open-forest species without necessarily eliminating habitat for closed-forest species. Our results provide evidence for a commonly expected but rarely verified pattern of increased species richness with forest heterogeneity. We suggest restoration treatments will most benefit forest bird diversity by reducing canopy cover, encouraging herbaceous ground cover, limiting ladder fuel species, and encouraging shrub diversity in canopy openings, while maintaining some dense forest stands on the landscape.