Background:The majority of colonic diverticular bleeding ceases spontaneously. However, approximately 20% of patients with diverticular bleeding require endoscopic, angiographic, or surgical intervention to stop the bleeding.We aim to identify the admission clinical features that predict the need for intervention to stop bleeding. Methods:Using our previously described diverticular bleeding database, we identified clinical features felt to be associated with the risk of persistent or recurrent diverticular bleeding, and hence the need for therapeutic intervention. These included gender, age, hypotension, admission hematocrit, lowest hematocrit, prothrombin time, creatinine, ASA, NSAIDs or Coumadin usage, comorbidities (incl CHF,HTN, COPD), and history of previous lower gastrointestinal bleeding. The outcome was defined as the need to intervene to stop colonic diverticular bleeding. Statistical analyses were performed using SAS. Individual predictors were analyzed using Chi-Square and t-Test analysis. Multiple Discriminant Analysis was performed to perdict the outcome based on five factors: gender, chronic renal failure, congestive heart failure, ASA usage and lowest recorded hematocrit. Finally, an exploratory Stepwise Discriminant Analysis was then performed using all possible individual predictive factors. Results: The only individual predictor which was significantly (p<0.05) related to outcome was gender. Intervention was required more often in women than in men. The hypothesized model was not significant. The Stepwise analysis identified five possible perdictors: in order of entry, gender, chronic renal failure, congestive heart failure, ASA usage and lowest recorded hematocrit were associated with requiring an intervention to stop bleeding. Other factors did not appear to be predictive of the risk of persistent or recurrent bleeding. Conclusions: Identification of factors predicting recurrent or persistent bleeding would be useful clinically, and help to triage patients on admission. Other than gender, there are no single strong predictors of the risk of persistent or recurrent diverticular bleeding, based on hospital admission data. Interestingly, anticoagulation status and history of previous lower gastrointestinal bleed did not appear to be predictive of persistent or recurrent diverticular bleeding. We intend to apply the Stepwise model to a future 60 patients with diverticular bleeding to validate or invalidate their predictive qualities. Background:The majority of colonic diverticular bleeding ceases spontaneously. However, approximately 20% of patients with diverticular bleeding require endoscopic, angiographic, or surgical intervention to stop the bleeding.We aim to identify the admission clinical features that predict the need for intervention to stop bleeding. Methods:Using our previously described diverticular bleeding database, we identified clinical features felt to be associated with the risk of persistent or recurrent diverticular bleeding, and hence the need for therapeutic intervention. These included gender, age, hypotension, admission hematocrit, lowest hematocrit, prothrombin time, creatinine, ASA, NSAIDs or Coumadin usage, comorbidities (incl CHF,HTN, COPD), and history of previous lower gastrointestinal bleeding. The outcome was defined as the need to intervene to stop colonic diverticular bleeding. Statistical analyses were performed using SAS. Individual predictors were analyzed using Chi-Square and t-Test analysis. Multiple Discriminant Analysis was performed to perdict the outcome based on five factors: gender, chronic renal failure, congestive heart failure, ASA usage and lowest recorded hematocrit. Finally, an exploratory Stepwise Discriminant Analysis was then performed using all possible individual predictive factors. Results: The only individual predictor which was significantly (p<0.05) related to outcome was gender. Intervention was required more often in women than in men. The hypothesized model was not significant. The Stepwise analysis identified five possible perdictors: in order of entry, gender, chronic renal failure, congestive heart failure, ASA usage and lowest recorded hematocrit were associated with requiring an intervention to stop bleeding. Other factors did not appear to be predictive of the risk of persistent or recurrent bleeding. Conclusions: Identification of factors predicting recurrent or persistent bleeding would be useful clinically, and help to triage patients on admission. Other than gender, there are no single strong predictors of the risk of persistent or recurrent diverticular bleeding, based on hospital admission data. Interestingly, anticoagulation status and history of previous lower gastrointestinal bleed did not appear to be predictive of persistent or recurrent diverticular bleeding. We intend to apply the Stepwise model to a future 60 patients with diverticular bleeding to validate or invalidate their predictive qualities.
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