Colombian Stock Market Research Articles

Estrategia de inversión optimizando la relación rentabilidad-riesgo: evidencia en el mercado accionario colombiano

This paper assesses and compares the observed returns in the market portfolio with those obtained by an optimization strategy model that maximizes the Sharpe ratio, based on daily returns from the Colombian stock market data. Twelve recommended biannual portfolios are obtained for the period 2007-2012, which are then compared against real stock from the Colombian stock index. The results show the superiority of the strategy of the designed algorithm over the returns obtained in the market portfolio. This shows the inefficiency of the market portfolio and the potential of applying this strategy in other contexts and the possibility of adopting the model in real investment decisions.

Metodología para la toma de decisiones de inversión en portafolio de acciones utilizando la técnica multicriterio AHP

This paper presents a methodology for decision making in the Colombia stock market by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) multicriteria technique. The problem of the research is related to the process for making investment decisions in a stock market by considering risk and profitability criteria. The research methodology includes the integration of traditional techniques for making investment decisions in equity portfolio with the AHP technique. The AHP multicriteria technique allows evaluating a finite number of choices with qualitative and quantitative criteria in a hierarchical way. The methodology has been tested on the solution of the problem of choice an equity portfolio by considering stocks of high and Medium Marketability which quoted in the Colombian stock market from December 2007 to April 2010. The computational results show the importance and efficiency of the successful integration of the traditional criteria of equity portfolio investment with the methodology AHP, for finding an appropriate balance between profitability and risk in the process of stock investment on the Colombian stock market.

Mean-variance investment strategy applied in emerging financial markets: Evidence from the Colombian stock market

In any investment, an analysis of the expected return and the assumed risk constitutes a fundamental step. Investing in financial assets is no exception. Since the portfolio selection theory was proposed by Markowitz in 1952, this methodology has become the benchmark in portfolio management. However, it is not always possible to apply it, especially when investing in emerging financial markets, which are characterised by a scant variety of available stocks and very low liquidity. In this paper, using the Colombian case, we will examine the challenges found by investors who want to create a portfolio using only stocks listed on a scarcely developed stock market.

Ex-Post Equity Risk Premiums and Business Cycles in Colombia: An Empirical Investigation Using Kalman and Hodrick-Prescott Filters

This article investigates the relationship between ex-post Equity Risk Premium (ERP) on the Colombian stock market and the economic cycles observed in the country using methodologies based on the Hodrick-Prescott and Kalman filters. Accordingly, a short-term econometric model is put forward for each filter, incorporating monthly data from 2008 to 2014. This reveals better adjustments in the case of the Kalman filter. Furthermore, the models show that the relationship between variables that reflect economic activity and ERP are counter-cyclical but not simultaneous, with a lag of up to two periods.

Riesgo sistémico en el mercado de acciones colombiano: alternativas de diversificación bajo eventos extremos

The coefficients of tail dependence, based on copulas, are proposed as a measure for portfolio risk management. Some aspects of the macro and microstructures of the Colombian stock market are described. Such features encourage the use of measures such as the one proposed herein. The application of the proposed methodology to the fourteen most liquid shares in the study period (2007-2012) derived in some diversification recommendations under extreme events. The main conclusion, based on the starting hypothesis, is related to the evidence of high vulnerability in the Colombian stock market to an event of systemic risk.

Estimación bayesiana del valor en riesgo: una aplicación para el mercado de valores colombiano

The purpose of this research is to implement the Bayesian quantile regression methodology in the estimation of the Value at Risk, VaR, in the colombian stock market. For this objective, some regulatory requirements on market risk are compared using the APARCH model, and traditional quantile regressions. These requirements are defined by the Colombia's Financial Superintendence where they address methodologies, performance measures and risk factors relevant to the calculation of the VaR. We found out that the later technique has a greater capacity to adapt to the patterns exhibited by a portfolio of Colombian stock given several performance measures.

Testing the efficiency market hypothesis for the Colombian stock market

One of the basic assumptions of asset pricing models (CAPM and APT) is the efficiency of markets. This paper seeks to prove this requirement in its weak form, both for the General Index of the Stock Exchange of Colombia and for the Colombian market's most representative assets. To this end, different statistical methods are implemented to show that stock patterns do not follow a normal distribution pattern. Additionally, when testing the Colombian efficiency market through a series of runs, BDS, LB and Bartlett test, there is no evidence of randomness in the main financial assets except Ecopetrol. Moreover, in the specific case of IGBC there is an improvement in market efficiency from 2008 to 2010, period that coincides with the onset of the global economic crisis.

Prueba de sesgo sobre rendimientos financieros en el mercado colombiano

The characterization of financial returns depends heavily on probabilistic behavior, which can be ill-fitted, thus leading to inappropriate economic decisions concerning asset pricing, portfolio allocation and/or the measurement of market risk. In this paper, we propose a test to determine the adjustment of the returns of the General Index of the Colombian Stock Exchange (IGBC) to the following distributions: Normal, Skew Normal, and Skew T. In addition, we measure the level of bias and compare our test’s performance with an alternative test used only for detecting asymmetry. We find that the proposed test allows for characterizing returns in the Colombian stock market with one of the probability distributions, unlike the other test, which only provides a warning about the existence of bias and does not ascertain the distribution representing its behavior.

Rendimiento ex-dividendo como indicador de eficiencia en un mercado emergente: caso colombiano 1999–2007

We study the ex-dividend return in the Colombian stock market between 1999 and 2007, period that includes the merger of the former three Colombian stock exchanges in the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia in July 2001. Contrary to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, we found positive and statistically significant ex-dividend returns in the sampled period, only in part explained by transaction cost and tax effects. Moreover, even subtracting transaction costs and tax effects, a dividend capture strategy would have gotten positive and economically sizable returns between 2006 and 2007 in the most liquid stocks. The decrease of those ex-dividend returns is also reported along the studied period, providing evidence of increasing informational efficiency after the merger of the three stock exchanges. Methodologically, this study highlights the importance of accounting for frictions in both academic efficiency studies and in testing speculative strategies by practitioners.

Valor de los Ahorros en Impuestos por Deuda en Colombia: Un Estudio Empírico (Value of Debt Tax Shields in Colombia: An Empirical Study)

The English version of this paper can be found at http://ssrn.com/abstract=1919305This paper estimates the value of tax savings, using the method of discounted cash flows for 23 major industrial firms in the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia (Colombian Stock Market) between 2001 and 2010, showing that this value represents on average between 5.74% and 56.73% out of total firm value depending on discount rate for tax savings. Using Data Panel regressions, it also finds that the average leverage of firms is low relative to other countries. Given this fact, we explored the behavior of the total value of the firm, VT and found no evidence that debt creates value.

Momentum in the Colombian Stock Market

ABSTRACT This article analyzes performance of momentum portfolios under different settings and in terms of raw and risk-adjusted returns after the local stock exchanges in Colombia merged in 2001. We found little evidence of significant momentum returns in the post-merger period. Zero risk-adjusted returns remained after estimating two pricing models. Similar results held in a pre-financial crisis period, considering a higher data frequency or a different number of portfolios. We attribute our findings to increased access to issuers and investors and greater information dissemination in the post-merger period, which overall have made profiting from studying historical price patterns more difficult.

Cost of Capital for Non-Traded Firms

In this teaching note I make a short review of the major statistics regarding the non traded firms in the U.S. and in Colombia as an example of an emerging market. I show some alternatives to estimate the cost of equity capital when there is not enough trading information. Some of them use the Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM), some of them use accounting information or simply, subjective estimation of risk. The note is organized as follows: In Section One I present some relevant statistics regarding the non traded firms in the U. S. and in Colombia. In Section Two I mention the importance of the emerging markets mostly composed of non-trading firms and the relevance of popular approaches to the estimation of cost of equity capital. In Section Three I distinguish between total and systematic risk and present methods to estimate the cost of equity capital with systematic risk and total risk. When using Accounting Risk Models (ARM) I use data from a well known firm in the Colombian stock market. In Section Four I present some concluding remarks.

Is Historical VAR a Reliable Tool for Relative Risk Measurement in the Colombian Stock Market?: An Empirical Analysis Using the Coefficient of Variation

Value-at-Risk (VaR) has become one of the most used techniques in financial risk management. The purpose of this paper is to address how well the technique holds in a thinly traded environment, such as the one in the Colombian stock market. Our purpose is to measure the efficiency of Value-at-Risk in terms of the coefficient of variation, which has been long used by practitioners, and treated frequently in the literature, as a measure of relative risk which is relatively easy to implement. Indeed, by using a simple regression analysis our purpose is to show how well does VaR (specifically historical VaR) as an dependent variable holds in terms of the coefficient of variation as our independent variable.

Costo de capital para empresas no transadas en bolsa (Spanish version of Cost of Capital for Non-Traded Firms)

In this teaching note I make a short review of the major statistics regarding the non traded firms in the U.S. and in Colombia as an example of an emerging market. I show some alternatives to estimate the cost of equity capital when there is not enough trading information. Some of them use the Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM), some of them use accounting information or simply, subjective estimation of risk. The note is organized as follows: In Section One I present some relevant statistics regarding the non traded firms in the U.S. and in Colombia. In Section Two I mention the importance of the emerging markets mostly composed of non trading firms and the relevance of popular approaches to the estimation of cost of equity capital. In Section Three I distinguish between total and systematic risk and present methods to estimate the cost of equity capital with systematic risk and total risk. When using Accounting Risk Models (ARM) I use data from a well known firm in the Colombian stock market. In Section Four I present some concluding remarks.

Analysis and Perspectives of Colombian Stock Market on 1998 - 2000 Period

The objective of this article is to determine some of the causes of low development that our capitals market of variable income has had, using as instruments of analysis the theory of portfolio exposed by Harry Markowitz and later complemented by other authors.