Cold Anomalies Research Articles

Non-Gaussian Cold-Side Temperature Distribution Tails and Associated Synoptic Meteorology

Abstract Non-Gaussian cold side temperature distribution tails occur in spatially coherent patterns in winter and summer across the globe. Under such conditions, future changes in extreme cold temperature exceedances may be manifested in more complex ways than if the underlying distribution were Gaussian. For example, under a uniform warm shift, locations with shorter- or longer-than-Gaussian cold side tails would experience a more or less rapid decrease in the number of extreme cold threshold exceedances, respectively, compared to if the tail were Gaussian. In many places in the mid- to high latitudes, shorter-than-Gaussian cold tails occur where there is a climatological limit on the magnitude of cold air to be transported by synoptic flow. For example, some high-latitude regions are already among the coldest in the hemisphere, thus limiting the availability of extremely cold air, in an anomalous sense, that can be transported to the region. In other short tail regions, anomalously cold air originates from or travels over large water bodies, which limits the magnitude of the cold anomaly. Long tails are often present when the cold source region is downstream of the climatological flow, requiring a highly anomalous circulation pattern to transport the cold air. The synoptic evolution of extreme cold days at several short- and long-tailed weather stations are presented to help diagnose the mechanisms behind extreme cold temperatures under conditions of non-Gaussianity. This provides a mechanistic view of how extreme cold occurs at each location, as well as an explanation for the notable deviations from Gaussianity.

El Niño–Related Summer Precipitation Anomalies in Southeast Asia Modulated by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

AbstractHow the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) affects El Niño–related signals in Southeast Asia is investigated in this study on a subseasonal scale. Based on observational and reanalysis data, as well as numerical model simulations, El Niño–related precipitation anomalies are analyzed for AMO positive and negative phases, which reveals a time-dependent modulation of the AMO. 1) In May–June, the AMO influences the precipitation in southern China (SC) and the Indochina peninsula (ICP) by modulating the El Niño–related air–sea interaction over the western North Pacific (WNP). During negative AMO phases, cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the WNP favor the maintaining of the WNP anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC). The associated southerly (westerly) anomalies on the northwest (southwest) flank of the WNPAC enhance (reduce) the climatological moisture transport to SC (the ICP) and result in wetter (drier) than normal conditions. In contrast, during positive AMO phases, weak SSTAs over the WNP lead to limited influence of El Niño on precipitation in Southeast Asia. 2) In July–August, the teleconnection impact from the North Atlantic is more manifest than that in May–June. During positive AMO phases, the warmer than normal North Atlantic favors anomalous wave trains, which propagate along the “great circle route” and result in positive pressure anomalies over SC, consequently suppressing precipitation in SC and the ICP. During negative AMO phases, the anomalous wave trains tend to propagate eastward from Europe to Northeast Asia along the summer Asian jet, exerting limited influence on Southeast Asia.

The Role of Extratropical Air–Sea Interaction in the Autumn Subseasonal Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract Considerable progress has been made in understanding the internal eddy–mean flow feedback in the subseasonal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during winter. Using daily atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data, this study highlights the role of extratropical air–sea interaction in the NAO variability during autumn when the daily sea surface temperature (SST) variability is more active and eddy–mean flow interactions are still relevant. Our analysis shows that a horseshoe-like SST tripolar pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean, marked by a cold anomaly in the Gulf Stream and two warm anomalies to the south of the Gulf Stream and off the western coast of northern Europe, can induce a quasi-barotropic NAO-like atmospheric response through eddy-mediated processes. An initial southwest–northeast tripolar geopotential anomaly in the North Atlantic forces this horseshoe-like SST anomaly tripole. Then the SST anomalies, through surface heat flux exchange, alter the spatial patterns of the lower-tropospheric temperature and thus baroclinicity anomalies, which are manifested as the midlatitude baroclinicity shifted poleward and reduced baroclinicity poleward of 70°N. In response to such changes of the lower-level baroclinicity, anomalous synoptic eddy generation, eddy kinetic energy, and eddy momentum forcing in the midlatitudes all shift poleward. Meanwhile, the 10–30-day low-frequency anticyclonic wave activities in the high latitudes decrease significantly. We illustrate that both the latitudinal displacement of midlatitude synoptic eddy activities and intensity variation of high-latitude low-frequency wave activities contribute to inducing the NAO-like anomalies.

Interdecadal Variation of the Relationship between East Asian Water Vapor Transport and Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures during January and Associated Mechanisms

AbstractThis study examined the interdecadal variations in the relationship between the East Asian water vapor transport (WVT) and the central and eastern tropical Pacific (CETP) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in January during 1951–2018, focusing on the meridional WVT over East Asia, which is critical for the East Asian winter precipitation. The results indicate that before the 1980s, an increased southerly WVT over East Asia was generally associated with warm SST anomalies in the CETP during January, whereas, after the mid-1980s, an increased southerly WVT over East Asia was mostly associated with cold SST anomalies in the central tropical Pacific during January. The underlying mechanisms are discussed based on a comparison on the climate anomalies associated with the East Asian meridional WVT between the periods of 1951–79 and 1986–2018. During 1951–79, the meridional WVT over East Asia was mainly modulated by the Pacific–East Asian (PEA) teleconnection, which would induce an anomalous southerly WVT over East Asia corresponding to warm SST anomalies in the CETP. Whereas, during 1986–2018, the connection between the PEA teleconnection and the East Asian meridional WVT was weakened. The connection among the CETP SSTs, the anomalous zonal circulation over the North Pacific, and the East Asian meridional WVT was enhanced. Additionally, the connection among the CETP SSTs, the circumglobal teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere, and the East Asian meridional WVT was enhanced. The above two enhanced connections opposed the effect of the PEA teleconnection and would induce an anomalous southerly WVT over East Asia corresponding to cold SST anomalies in the central tropical Pacific.

In Search of Winter Blocking in the Western North Pacific Ocean

AbstractWe investigate winter blocking activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) through an intercomparison of four detection methods, which are categorized into two types (anomaly and reversal). Most of the blocking events in the anomaly‐based methods are initiated from the eastern North Pacific. Reversal‐based methods capture the blocking occurrence associated with Rossby wave breaking, especially cyclonic breaking. As the two types capture different aspects of WNP blocking, the resultant regional impact is also largely different. At the onset, anomaly‐based methods show a strong cold anomaly downstream of the blocking in conjunction with a Pacific/North America‐like pattern. Reversal‐based methods indicate a weak cold anomaly in company with a western Pacific‐like pattern, which appears downstream and upstream of the blocking in the local reversal and large‐scale reversal methods, respectively. At the end of WNP blocking, all methods show strong cold anomalies both upstream and downstream of the blocking.

Reduction in Northern Midlatitude 2-m Temperature Variability due to Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract In this study, we investigate links between Arctic sea ice loss and the variability of 2-m temperatures over a 6-month period (November–April) over two domains centered over northern Eurasia and northern North America. Based on data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), there has been an increase (a decrease) in recent seasonal temperature variability over Eurasia (North America), which can be attributed to cooling (warming) during the winter months. Decreases in the intraseasonal variability of temperature anomalies, however, are noted in both regions for the November–April period. This study investigates the role of different forcings on the changes seen in the reanalysis product using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project simulations forced with repeating sea surface temperature, sea ice, and carbon dioxide concentration relative to climatologies from two different base periods, 1981–90 and 2005–14. The seasonal temperature and intraseasonal anomaly variabilities are examined, and we find that only the simulations with reduction in sea ice (2005–14 base-period sea ice concentration) produce significant decreases in intraseasonal temperature anomaly variability over these regions, agreeing with the CFSR analysis. Runs that reduce sea ice also result in a significant decrease in the frequency and magnitude of extreme warm and cold temperature anomalies. It is proposed that the weakened latitudinal temperature gradient, resulting from decreased sea ice, leads to reduced meridional temperature advection variability, which in turn contributes to the reduction in the variability of temperature anomalies.

Quantifying the Impacts of Cold Airmass on Aerosol Concentrations Over North China Using Isentropic Analysis

AbstractWinter air quality can vary markedly due to cold air activities. However, the impacts of the polar cold airmass on aerosol variations has not been clarified in a quantitative manner. Using an isentropic analysis method, we investigated changes in the cold airmass and sulfate aerosol distributions over North China during the winter of 2014/2015. The cold airmass and sulfate concentrations exhibited pronounced out‐of‐phase variations, with comparable amplitudes at subseasonal (30–60 days) and synoptic (4–6 days) scales. Subseasonal sulfate variations were closely associated with distribution of the polar cold airmass, as it shifted between zonal and meridional patterns, regulating cold airmass fluxes over North China. Typically, subseasonal surges in the cold airmass consisted of several synoptic disturbances, including one cold air outbreak event and 3–6 renewal/decay oscillations. These synoptic inflows of clean cold airmass repeatedly pushed the warm polluted airmass away from North China. Thus, spatiotemporal variations in sulfate better reflect cold airmass distributions and fluxes than northerly wind regimes. Using diagnostic equations derived herein, we estimated the contribution of various physical processes to aerosol variations during cold air anomalies. We found that the local changes in sulfate concentrations were mainly attributed to advection of warm airmasses, as well as advection and vertical displacement by horizontal convergence of the polar cold airmass. The latter two processes contributed most to sulfate decreases, leading to a relatively strong aerosol reductions during cold air outbreaks, while first two processes led to weaker aerosol reductions during cold air oscillations.

Winter Midlatitude Cold Anomalies Linked to North Atlantic Sea Ice and SST Anomalies: The Pivotal Role of the Potential Vorticity Gradient

Abstract This study establishes a linkage between the North Atlantic sea ice concentration (SIC) or sea surface temperature (SST) and cold anomalies over northern Europe and North America through the Greenland blocking (GB) change. It is revealed that the magnitude of the meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient in the North Atlantic mid- to high latitudes plays a key role in whether strong cold anomalies occur over the North America (NA) or northern Europe (NE) or both, while it is related to the SIC change observed over Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, and the Labrador Sea (BDL collectively) and the North Atlantic SST anomaly. When the midlatitude Atlantic SST is strongly warm or when the BDL SIC anomaly is largely positive, there is a corresponding large PV gradient over the North Atlantic. In this case, no intense cold anomalies are seen over NA due to less westward movement and the short lifetime of GB. Instead, a relatively strong cold anomaly appears over western and southern Europe. Its prior large-scale atmospheric circulation is the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Moreover, strong cold anomalies can simultaneously occur over NA and NE only when the PV gradient is small under the influence of large SIC decline or intense mid- to high-latitude SST cooling across the Gulf Stream Extension. Its prior large-scale atmospheric circulation is a negative NAO phase. Daily composites show that strong cold anomalies over NA occur along the northwest–southeast direction in the presence of large SIC decline, whereas strong cold anomalies occur in NA midlatitudes even in the absence of large BDL SIC decline when mid- to high-latitude SST cooling is strong.

POTENTIAL GEOLOGIC ISSUES OF VON KÁRMÁN CRATER REVEALED BY MULTISOURCE REMOTE SENSING DATA

Abstract. Von Kármán crater is the landing area for CE-4 mission, which provides a chance to further study the evolution of South-Pole Aitken basin. In this paper, the topography, composition, temperature and deep structures of Von Kármán crater are systematically studied with LRO LOLA data, Clementine UV-VIS data, CE-2 CELMS data, and GRAIL data. Several potential geologic issues are postulated as follows: (1) There exists a difference for the southern and northern parts of the crater floor in topography. The surface topography is influenced by Leibnitz and Finsen events. (2) There exists an FTA-rich material in depth layer of the crater floor, and the later bombardments exposed the original material in the crater floor. And the material in depth is homogeneous. (3) The composition apparently changes with depth, and there exist a warm anomaly in the northern part of the crater floor and a cold anomaly in the southern part. (4) A large amount of magma has been uplifted after Von Kármán M impact event, and the crust has been melted several times and condensed into dense basalt layer. Generally, this is a good place to measure the material from the original SPA basin and the material from the depth layer of the Moon for the CE-4 landing site.

Influences of Tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans on the Interannual Variations of Precipitation in the Early and Late Rainy Seasons in South China

Abstract Because of the seasonal northward migration of the East Asian summer monsoon, the mean-state atmospheric circulation in South China (SC) is remarkably different between the early (May–June) and late (July–August) rainy seasons. This study presents distinct teleconnections between the SC precipitation in the two periods and the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical oceans. In the early rainy season when the major monsoon rain belt is located in SC, the increased local precipitation is related to the tropical Indian Ocean Basin warming. The basin warming induces an anomalous anticyclone in the South China Sea–western North Pacific (SCS-WNP). The related southwesterly anomalies transport more moisture to SC and lead to more moisture convergence and precipitation there. In the late rainy season when the major monsoon rain belt migrates northward to the Yangtze River valley, the precipitation increase in SC can be caused by the dipole SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific with the cold anomalies near the Maritime Continent and warm ones near the date line. The dipole SST anomalies generate an anomalous cyclone in the WNP with its center more northward than that of the anomalous anticyclone in the early rainy season. The related northeasterly anomalies along its northwestern flank reduce the climatological northward transport of moisture flux out of SC, and increase the moisture convergence and precipitation there. The distinct teleconnections between the SC precipitation and the tropical SSTs in the early and late rainy seasons can be well reproduced in the sensitivity experiments by an atmospheric general circulation model.

Impacts of MJO Convection over the Maritime Continent on Eastern China Cold Temperatures

Abstract The present study shows that winter cold events over eastern China can be induced by Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)-associated anomalous convection over the Maritime Continent. We conduct composite analysis separately for identified intraseasonal cold events over eastern China that occur following anomalous convection over the Maritime Continent and the tropical Indian Ocean. For cold events related to anomalous convection over the Maritime Continent, the southward intrusion of cold air into eastern China takes an eastward path in association with an eastward location of an anomalous Siberian high compared to cold events related to anomalous convection over the tropical Indian Ocean. The Maritime Continent convection-related cold events tend to occur with a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), whereas the relationship between the tropical Indian Ocean convection-related cold events and the AO is weak. Anomalous convective heating over the Maritime Continent triggers a poleward Rossby wave train, which, together with an AO-related southward wave train from northern Eurasia, contributes to the deepening of the East Asian trough. The poleward wave energy dispersion is similarly triggered by anomalous convective heating over the tropical Indian Ocean. In both types of cold events, anomalous tropical heating induces a meridional vertical circulation, with large-scale airmass convergence in the upper midtroposphere and descending of air on the northern branch of the vertical cell over Siberia. The upper-level mass convergence and the radiative cooling over Siberia work together for the enhancement and southeastward expansion of the Siberian high and the southward intrusion of cold anomalies to eastern China.

Detecting daytime and nighttime land surface temperature anomalies using thermal infrared remote sensing in Dandong geothermal prospect

Traditional ground survey methods have limited the development and use of renewable energy from geothermal resources. In this paper, the geothermal potential area of Dandong, China is studied using the thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing data from daytime Landsat 8 and nighttime Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). Through pre-processing such as georeferencing, radiometric calibration, and atmospheric correction, the Landsat8 TIRS and ASTER data were used to invert the land surface temperature of the study area during the daytime and nighttime using the single-channel algorithm and temperature and emissivity separation algorithm. Furthermore, the land surface temperatures during daytime and nighttime of three natural land features—water, vegetation, and bare soil—were classified and analyzed. According to the results, vegetation and bare soil show relatively thermal anomalies during the day and relatively cold anomalies during the night. Conversely, water shows relatively cold anomalies during the day and relatively thermal anomalies during the night. Calculating the daytime and nighttime mean of land surface temperature (DNMLST) can eliminate the relatively cold/thermal anomalies exhibited by natural land features during the daytime and nighttime while highlighting the geothermal anomaly zone. Nine geothermal anomaly zones were identified using the threshold method. The auxiliary analysis of geological data excluded non-geothermal effects. Studies have shown that the distribution of the identified geothermal prospects is consistent with the development and distribution of faults. The fractures cut the land surface, causing groundwater to form structural fissure hot water through fracture structures and fissures after magma heating. The use of two higher-resolution TIR remote sensing data products to obtain the DNMLST for the detection of geothermal anomalies has proven cost-effective technical method.

Combined Effects of the MJO and the Arctic Oscillation on the Intraseasonal Eastern China Winter Temperature Variations

AbstractThe present study reveals that the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO)-related temperature anomalies over East Asia have notable differences among positive, neutral, and negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) phases. In MJO phases 2–3, cold anomalies over eastern China occur mainly during positive AO. In MJO phase 7, warm anomalies over eastern China are observed mostly during neutral AO, and in MJO phase 8 warm anomalies appear in positive and neutral AO. Regional mean temperature anomalies over northeastern East Asia tend to be negative during negative AO but positive during positive AO in six of eight MJO phases. In MJO phases 2–3, the AO-related mid- to high-latitude wave train over Eurasia and the MJO convection-triggered poleward wave train work together in contributing to negative height anomalies over eastern China and leading to cold anomalies there. The mid- to high-latitude wave train is stronger when the AO is negative than positive, which is associated with stronger zonal winds. In MJO phases 7–8, the positive AO-related mid- to high-latitude wave train over Eurasia and the MJO-induced poleward wave train cooperate in inducing positive height anomalies and leading to warm anomalies over eastern China. The mid- to high-latitude wave train is the main contributor to negative height anomalies over eastern China when the AO is negative during MJO phases 7–8. Meanwhile, the intensity of the South Asian wave source associated with the MJO convection is subjected to the modulation of southeastward dispersion of wave energy from western Europe during negative AO.

The Arctic Climate Warming and Extremely Cold Winters in North Eurasia during 1979–2017

Daily surface air temperature from ERA-Interim reanalysis is used to study the cold and warm anomalies observed in December–February 1979–2017 over three regions of North Eurasia. The air temperature anomalies were selected that exceeded the standard deviation in the absolute magnitude and persisted 7 days and longer. The anomalies were analyzed in terms of the frequency of occurrence, strength, persistence, extension and the integral index of severity. The reproducibility of the statistical characteristics of the anomalies was also considered using ensemble simulations with the MGO atmospheric general circulation model and prescribed boundary conditions from observation for the period 1979–2017. The observed and simulated trends of the anomaly characteristics over the whole period and their link to the surface air temperature anomalies in the Barents and Kara seas were also discussed. It was shown that the most significant cold anomalies have been observed in Western Siberia since the beginning of the 21st century, when positive winter temperature anomalies were recorded over the Barents and Kara seas.

A Comparison of North American Surface Temperature and Temperature Extreme Anomalies in Association with Various Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns

The atmospheric teleconnection pattern reflects large-scale variations in the atmospheric wave and jet stream, and has pronounced impacts on climate mean and extremes over various regions. This study compares those patterns that have significant circulation anomalies over the North Pacific–North American–North Atlantic sector, which directly influence surface temperature and temperature extremes over North America. We analyze the pattern associated anomalies of surface temperature and warm and cold extremes over North America, during the northern winter and summer seasons. In particular, we assess the robustness of the regional temperature and temperature extreme anomaly patterns by evaluating the field significance of these anomalies over North America, and quantify the percentages of North American temperature and temperature extreme variances explained by these patterns. The surface temperature anomalies in association with the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), Tropical–Northern Hemisphere pattern (TNH), North Pacific pattern (NP), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Western Pacific pattern (WP), circumglobal teleconnection (CGT), and Asian–Bering–North American (ABNA) patterns are similar to those reported in previous studies based on various datasets, indicating the robustness of the results. During winter, the temperature anomaly patterns considered are field significant at the 5% level over North America, except the WP-related one. These pattern associated anomalies explained about 5–15% of the total interannual temperature variance over North America, with relatively high percentages for the ABNA and PNA patterns, and low for the WP pattern. The pattern associated warm and cold extreme anomalies resemble the corresponding surface mean temperature anomaly patterns, with differences mainly in magnitude of the anomalies. Most of the anomalous extreme patterns are field significant at the 5% level, except the WP-related patterns. These extreme anomalies explain about 5–20% of the total interannual variance over North America. During summer, the pattern-related circulation and surface temperature anomalies are weaker than those in winter. Nevertheless, all of the pattern associated temperature anomalies are of field significance at the 5% level over North America, except the PNA-related one, and explain about 5–10% of the interannual variance. In addition, the temperature extreme anomalies, in association with the circulation patterns, are comparable in summer and winter. Over North America, the NP-, WP-, ABNA-, and CGT-associated anomalies of warm extremes are field significant at the 5% level and explain about 5–15% of the interannual variance. Most of the pattern associated cold extreme anomalies are field significant at the 5% level, except the PNA and NAO related anomalies, and also explain about 5–15% of the interannual variance over North America.

Influence of the Kuroshio Interannual Variability on the Summertime Precipitation over the East China Sea and Adjacent Area

AbstractMuch attention has been paid to the climatic impacts of changes in the Kuroshio Extension, instead of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea (ECS). This study, however, reveals the prominent influences of the lateral shift of the Kuroshio at interannual time scale in late spring [April–June (AMJ)] on the sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation in summer around the ECS, based on high-resolution satellite observations and ERA-Interim. A persistent offshore displacement of the Kuroshio during AMJ can result in cold SST anomalies in the northern ECS and the Japan/East Sea until late summer, which correspondingly causes anomalous cooling of the lower troposphere. Consequently, the anomalous cold SST in the northern ECS acts as a key driver to robustly enhance the precipitation from the Yangtze River delta to Kyushu in early summer (May–August) and over the central ECS in late summer (July–September). In view of the moisture budget analysis, two different physical processes modulated by the lateral shift of the Kuroshio are identified to account for the distinct responses of precipitation in early and late summer, respectively. First, the anomalous cold SST in the northern ECS induced by the Kuroshio offshore shift is likely conducive to the earlier arrival of the mei-yu–baiu front at 30°–32°N and its subsequent slower northward movement, which may prolong the local rainy season, leading to the increased rain belt in early summer. Second, the persistent cold SST anomalies in late summer strengthen the near-surface baroclinicity and the associated strong atmospheric fronts embedded in the extratropical cyclones over the central ECS, which in turn enhances the local rainfall.

Tree-ring isotopes adjacent to Lake Superior reveal cold winter anomalies for the Great Lakes region of North America

Tree-ring carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) and oxygen isotopes (δ18O) collected from white pine (Pinus strobus) trees adjacent to Lake Superior show potential to produce the first winter-specific paleoclimate reconstruction with inter-annual resolution for this region. Isotopic signatures from 1976 to 2015 were strongly linked to antecedent winter minimum temperatures (Tmin), Lake Superior peak ice cover, and regional to continental-scale atmospheric winter pressure variability including the North American Dipole. The immense thermal inertia of Lake Superior underlies the unique connection between winter conditions and tree-ring Δ13C and δ18O signals from the following growing season in trees located near the lake. By combining these signals, we demonstrate feasibility to reconstruct variability in Tmin, ice cover, and continental-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (r ≥ 0.65, P < 0.001).

A Dynamical Perspective on Atmospheric Temperature Variability and Its Response to Climate Change

AbstractThe atmospheric temperature distribution is typically described by its mean and variance, while higher-order moments, such as skewness, have received less attention. Skewness is a measure of the asymmetry between the positive and negative tails of the distribution, which has implications for extremes. It was recently shown that near-surface temperature in the Southern Hemisphere is positively skewed on the poleward side of the storm tracks and negatively skewed on the equatorward side. Here we take a dynamical approach to further study what controls the spatial structure of the near-surface temperature distribution in this region. We employ a tracking algorithm to study the formation, intensity, and movement of warm and cold temperature anomalies. We show that warm anomalies are generated on the equatorward side of the storm tracks and propagate poleward, while cold anomalies are generated on the poleward side and propagate equatorward. We further show that while the perturbation growth is mainly achieved through linear meridional advection, it is the nonlinear meridional advection that is responsible for the meridional movement of the temperature anomalies and therefore to the differential skewness. The projected poleward shift and increase of the temperature variance maximum in the Southern Hemisphere under global warming is shown to be composed of a poleward shift and increase in the maximum intensity of both warm and cold anomalies, and a decrease in their meridional displacements. An analytic expression is derived for the nonlinear meridional temperature tendency, which captures the spatial structure of the skewness and its projected changes.

Seasonal predictability of European summer climate re-assessed

We improve seasonal hindcast skill of European summer climate in an ensemble based coupled seasonal prediction system by selecting individual ensemble members based on their respective consistent chain of processes that describe a physical mechanism. This mechanism is associated with the second mode of seasonal climate variability in the North-Atlantic-European sector and is contrary to the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. We initially analyse the mechanism in the ERA-Interim reanalysis and then test the influence of the mechanism on European hindcast skill in an initialised coupled seasonal climate model. We show that the mechanism originates in the tropical North Atlantic in spring, where either warm or cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) are connected with the European climate by an upper-level wave-train. This wave-train is accompanied by a zonal pressure gradient, that in turn influences the climate over central Europe in the following summer. We analyse the seasonal summer hindcast skill in a mixed resolution hindcast ensemble simulation generated by MPI-ESM, with 30 members starting every year in May. While the mean over the full ensemble shows no seasonal hindcast skill in summer, we achieve significant hindcast skill through forming a new mean over subselected ensemble members. For this selection, we test every ensemble member for the proposed consistent chain of connections between the wave-train, the zonal pressure gradient and their impact on European summer temperatures, and find that the processes that describe the mechanism are not represented in every ensemble member. Due to its influence on European summer climate, we use the condition of the persistent spring SSTs to anticipate the phase of the mechanism in each considered year. We thus use statistical relations to select ensemble members generated by a dynamical prediction system. With this approach, we significantly enhance the seasonal hindcast skill and the reliability of the hindcasts in the North-Atlantic-European sector, especially in the areas where the mechanism is showing a prominent signal. Since we only use knowledge that would be available in a real forecast set-up, this approach can potentially be applied in operational ensemble prediction systems.

Quantifying the Role of Oceanic Feedbacks on ENSO Asymmetry

AbstractThe role of oceanic feedbacks in determining the asymmetry of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) magnitude, spatial structure, and duration is quantified on the basis of a novel temperature variance budget. Results confirm previous studies that in the eastern Pacific, El Niño warm temperature anomalies are larger in magnitude than La Niña cold temperature anomalies mainly due to stronger positive oceanic feedbacks for El Niño. We find that La Niña cold anomalies are typically stronger than El Niño warm anomalies in the central Pacific with a faster growth rate for cold anomalies, due to a stronger positive thermocline feedback and weaker nonlinear damping. The thermocline feedback related to recharge oscillator dynamics plays a dominate role and leads to asymmetry in the duration of El Niño and La Niña events. In particular, the thermocline feedback becomes significantly negative during the late decaying phase of El Niño and speeds up its demise.