Inflation Coefficient Research Articles

Influence of Super Absorbent Polymer on the Sulfate Resistance of Cement Mortar

Structures are easily corroded in the Salt Lake areas of China, especially in sulfate solution. This study was intended to settle the problem of sulfate corrosion failure of concrete structures, the influences of different contents of super absorbent polymer (abbreviated as SAP) on the working performance, mechanical properties, corrosion resistance and expansion performance of cement mortar were studied. The mechanism of SAP in mortar was analyzed and studied by SEM. The results showed that although SAP could slightly decrease the fluidity and strength of cement mortar, but it could remarkably improve the coefficient of resistance erosion of specimens and the inflation coefficient of cement paste. When the content of SAP was 0.3%, the sulfate corrosion resistance and expansion performance of specimens showed the best (the coefficient of resistance erosion and inflation coefficient of mortar specimens were 0.95 and 0.97, respectively). Besides, SAP could release much water in the hydration process, form irregular holes, and increase the porosity of mortar specimens. There would more hydration products generated and filled in the pores during the hydration process, thereby improving the sulfate resistance of mortar specimens. Therefore, this research provides theoretical guidance and basis for the study of sulfate corrosion damage of concrete structures in the future.

The network loan risk prediction model based on Convolutional neural network and Stacking fusion model

In order to establish a more suitable risk prediction system for the network loan platform and reduce the loan risk of the network platform, this paper proposes a loan risk prediction model Stacking+CNN, which is based on the convolutional neural network (CNN) and the integration model of Stacking. Using CNN to extract the local spatial features hidden in the results of Stacking algorithm, improve the generalization ability of the model, give full play to the generalization ability of Stacking algorithm and the feature extraction ability of CNN algorithm. Firstly, this paper uses wrapper method and variance inflation coefficient (VIF) to extract the features from the original data. Then, the processed data is brought into the first layer of Stacking algorithm base learner for training. The predicted results are taken into CNN as a new data set for feature extraction. Finally, the extracted data are brought into the SVM for risk prediction. Empirical results show that the prediction model proposed in this paper is better than the single model and other integrated models in predicting accuracy and recall rate.

Money Supply and Inflation Effects on Economic Growth in Nigeria

Covering a time span from 1990 to 2018, this study aims to check the effects of money supply and inflation on Nigerian economic growth by collecting data from Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. This research design uses dependent variable (RGDP) and the independent variables (INF, INTR MS and CPI ). The estimated regression model shows a negative and significant relationship between coefficient of inflation and Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) at a significant level of 0.0011. Money Supply and RGDP is found to be negatively associated. R square value found to be 78%. This ensures goodness fit of this model. At 5% significant level, the level regression passed the overall significant test (F-test), indicating that none of the estimated coefficient is equal to zero and that a linear association exists between the dependent variable (RGDP) and other independent variables (MS, INF, INT and CPI). The DW statistics of 1.96 indicate the absence of auto-correlation.

The Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth in Nigeria

The study investigated the effects of inflation on economic growth in Nigeria within the period 1990 to 2016. Secondary data for relevant variables were obtained from the CBN publications. The study adopted the use of unit root test, cointegration and VECM in estimating the data. The study found that inflation does not have significant effect on economic growth between 1990 and 2016 based on the significant level which was greater than 0.05. The result also shows that inflation is not significant in explaining the changes in economic growth between 1990 and 2016. The examination of their causal relationship also proved to be non-existence as their probability values are higher than the benchmark of 0.05. Meanwhile, a long run and short analysis was also conducted. The findings shows that the previous year’s deviation from long run equilibrium is corrected at an adjustment sped of 6.7 %. On the other hand, the short run coefficient of inflation is 0.070590. This suggest that holding other variables constant, in the short run, a percent change in inflation will on the average lead to 0.07 percent increase in economic growth (EGR) in Nigeria. Meanwhile, changes in the dependent variable (EGR)were explained by 35% changes in the independent variable (INF). It is thus recommended that government should push for dynamic monetary policy that can mitigate against inflation, when it becomes inimical on the long run. Since there is a long run relationship between inflation and economic growth, the government should not be much concerned on the impact of inflation but rather push for inclusive growth policies that can result in all round growth.

Quantifying the Fed’s Objective

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) objective, namely, its dovish stance, is often blamed for the so-called Great Inflation. A popular proxy for the former is constructed using the inflation coefficients in estimated Taylor rules. However, for a welfare-optimizing central bank, the estimated Taylor coefficients are not sufficient for inferring its underlying preference. We quantify Fed’s objective—the targeting rule—relying on a conditional estimator (Gali and Gambetti 2018) that is free of the classical simultaneity problem. We discover that Fed’s targeting rule remained stable during the pre- and post-Volcker periods—the opposite of what is implied through a Taylor rule estimation.

The stability of money demand in India in the post reform period: an empirical analysis

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the stability of demand for money in India using ARDL cointegration framework. The study of stability of money demand plays an important role in deciding the appropriate instruments of monetary policy. The present study examines the demand for money by using annual data over the period 1991-2015. The ARDL model bound test procedure has confirmed that a stable, long relationship exists between M1 and its determinants such as income, interest rates, exchange rates and inflation. Through results we conclude that income elasticity coefficient is positive and significant while the coefficient of inflation and interest rate is negative. Based on the Bahmoni-Oskooee and Pourhedrian (1990) argument, exchange rates negatively affect the demand for money. This study also examines the cointegration in the presence of structural break by using Gregory-Hansen single structural break approach. The study does not find any cointegration in presence of single structural break. Our result also reveals that M1 is stable between the sample period when we incorporated the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests.

The stability of money demand in India in the post reform period: an empirical analysis

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the stability of demand for money in India using ARDL cointegration framework. The study of stability of money demand plays an important role in deciding the appropriate instruments of monetary policy. The present study examines the demand for money by using annual data over the period 1991-2015. The ARDL model bound test procedure has confirmed that a stable, long relationship exists between M1 and its determinants such as income, interest rates, exchange rates and inflation. Through results we conclude that income elasticity coefficient is positive and significant while the coefficient of inflation and interest rate is negative. Based on the Bahmoni-Oskooee and Pourhedrian (1990) argument, exchange rates negatively affect the demand for money. This study also examines the cointegration in the presence of structural break by using Gregory-Hansen single structural break approach. The study does not find any cointegration in presence of single structural break. Our result also reveals that M1 is stable between the sample period when we incorporated the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests.

The determinants of South Korean outward FDI in Russia: a partial least square (PLS) analysis

The significance of economic cooperation between South Korea and Russia is growing due to the new foreign policies of the two countries: the New Northern policy of South Korea, and the Pivot to East of Russia. Thereby, in this study, we investigated the determinants of South Korean outward FDI in Russia based on the time-series data for the period 1993-2017 to draw policy implications. To overcome the issues of multicollinearity and the small number of observations in an ordinary least square (OLS) function, we employed a partial least square (PLS). The result of PLS analysis indicated that GDP (+) and inflation (-) are statistically significant out of the 7 explanatory variables in our model. But, as the coefficient of inflation was too small, it is also hard to be defined as a significant factor. While, the difference of GDP per capita, freedom index, the nominal exchange rate, natural resource, and trade openness are determined as statistically insignificant. From the result, we found that South Korean outward FDI in Russia is predominantly purposed with market-seeking.

Factors Affecting Loan Repayment Performance of Smallholder Farmers in Ethiopia

Farm credit has been described as one of the pre-requisites for farmers to increase the agricultural production. However, the majority of Ethiopian population comprises small farmers, who cannot implement a technology without credit. Even though, there are attempts to solve these rural financial difficulties by government being collateral and extending microfinance institution, associated to different factors, a number of farmers are becoming defaulters and the lending institution faces a problem. This study focused on the analysis of factors affecting loan repayment performance of farmers in Simada District, South Gondor Zone and Amhara Regional State. In this study primary data collected from 150 randomly selected borrowers using structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics such as mean, standard deviation, maximum, minimum and percentages were used to describe socio-economic and institutional characteristics of the respondents. The t-test and Chi-square test statistics were employed to compare defaulter and non-defaulter groups with respect to some explanatory variables. Finally, a Tobit regression model was employed to identify factors affecting loan repayment and intensity of loan recovery among smallholder farmer. Variance inflation factor and coefficient of contingency were calculated to detect multicollinearity and association among the continuous and discrete variables, respectively. A total of 14 explanatory variables were included in the empirical model and out of these, 8 were found to be statistically significant. Education level, Land holding size, total livestock holding, non farm income, expenditure on social festivals, number of years of experience in agricultural extension services, saving habit and source of credits were highly important in influencing loan repayment performance as evidenced by the model statistic. Therefore, the study suggests that improving the livestock sector, educating households, giving attention in promoting non-farm activities and saving habit, minimize traditional ceremonies are some of the important priority areas for the success of future intervention strategies aimed at the promotion technological transformation, increasing production and to minimize loan defaults..

Determinan Jumlah Uang Beredar, Tingkat Bunga, dan Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

This study aims to determine the determinants of the money supply, the interest rate, and inflation on Indonesia's economic growth in the 2009-2018 period. This research uses descriptive method and is strengthened by the OLS (ordinary least square) method with secondary data. The data used is sourced from the Central Statistics Agency and Bank Indonesia. The results of this study indicate that the money supply and the interest rate have a negative effect but inflation has a positive effect on Indonesia's economic growth. The JUB variable is not significant with a probability value of 0.1326. The JUB regression coefficient value has a negative relationship to the economic growth variable with a coefficient of 0.9288. The interest rate variable entered in the above equation turns out to be negative and significant with a probability value of 0.0571. The value of the coefficient of the exchange rate is (0.4843). The independent variable inflation gives a negative and not significant result with a probability value of 0.1134. Inflation coefficient value is 0.1724. In the equation model that uses economic growth as the dependent variable above, the magnitude of the coefficient of determination (R Squared) is 0.573429. This shows that the ability of the independent variable in explaining the diversity of the independent variables is 57.34% while the remaining 42.66% is influenced by other variables not included in the model.

Electrochemical Synthesis of Multilayer Graphene Oxide by Anodic Oxidation of Disperse Graphite

The electrochemical method for synthesizing multilayer graphene oxide by the anodic oxidation of disperse graphite in sulfuric acid is proposed. The possibility of sequential dispersion of graphite in the course of its electrochemical oxidation, hydrolysis, and thermolysis is demonstrated. It is shown that the resulting nanostructured materials tend to form agglomerates in aqueous dispersions. When treated with supersonic, the size of oxidized graphite particles decreases noticeably and they form multilayer graphene oxide. Thermolysis (250°С) leads to a considerable expansion of oxidized graphite particles (the inflation coefficient 1490 cm3 g–1) and reduction of oxygen-containing functional groups. The structure of thus obtained material includes polygraphene sheets with the thickness of 0.01–0.1 µm and contains pores of 1–10 µm.

The Impact of the Decisions of the COBIT 5 Committee on the Effectiveness of the Internal Control Systems in the Jordanian Industrial Joint Stock Companies

The objective of this study was to identify the impact of IT governance under the COBIT5 framework on the effectiveness of internal control systems in Jordanian industrial companies. In order to achieve the objectives of this study, the descriptive and analytical methodology was used. The study society is composed of the accounting and financial departments, the number of (65) questionnaires were distributed to each company from the study sample of (43) companies, the researchers retrieved (97) questionnaires. After reviewing the retrieved questionnaires it was found that there are (4) questionnaires that are not valid for the statistical analysis. And thus the suitable number of questionnaires for analysis is (93). In order to analyze the study data and test hypotheses, the SPSS program was used in the various statistical analyzes, descriptive statistics and the internal consistency coefficient (Kronbach Alpha). The multiple linear correlation test was also used using the Pearson correlation coefficient and the variance inflation coefficient, Analysis of simple and multiple linear regression. The study reached several results, the most important of which was the existence of a strong and statistically significant relationship between the implementation of COBIT5’s decisions (planning and organization, acquisition and implementation, service provision and support, evaluation and observation). The study concluded with several recommendations, the most important of which was the increase in the degree of companies’ use of the pioneering brainstorming method in the qualification of employees within the companies and evaluating their performance according to the COBIT framework.5 In addition to the need for companies To develop future plans to activate the concept of control and auditing in the environment of the computer and the gradual transition to modern control methods, including automatic control under the COBIT5 framework.

Comparative Efficacy of Life-Cycle and Absolute Income Hypothesis in Pakistan

In Pakistan more than 90% of national saving comprises of household saving but this household saving hovering around 12% to 14%, of the GDP. This study is one of the early attempts in Pakistan to examine the household lifecycle saving behavior using the methodology of Modigliani and Shi (2004). Unlike previous studies in Pakistan this study uses GDP growth rather than GDP level to test lifecycle hypothesis. Similarly in demographic variables the dependency ratio is taken as percentage of employed labor force rather than the total labor force. Present study based on time-series data from 1973 to 2015, taken from the State Bank of Pakistan Annual Reports, 50 Years of Pakistan Economy, and various issues of the Economic Survey of Pakistan. In order to estimate the saving determinates the Bounds testing approach is applied to ensure the Co-integration and the long-run coefficients are estimated through OLS. The estimated results of long-rum regression show that the dependency ratio (less than 14 years population) has significant negative effect on average saving and the growth differential variable has also insignificant negative effect showing that any transitory shock on income has no significant effect on average saving. Similarly, the long-term growth has insignificant effect on saving which does not support the hypothesis of virtuous circle that goes from faster growth to increased saving to even higher growth. The coefficient of inflation is significant with expected negative sign. Finally, the Keynesian variable estimated by per capita income is significant with expected positive sign, which indicates that a rise in per-capita income will increase the saving. The overall results do not support the lifecycle hypothesis in case of Pakistan but reinforce the existence of absolute-income hypothesis. These results emphasized some important policy implication for monetary policy as inflation was found to have negative impact on household savings, ensuring price stability and low inflation will be conducive to augment household savings and thus sustain higher economic growth. The results also emphasize that in order to increase the saving both inflation and any transitory shock that effect negatively on saving needs to be controlled.

Modeling the influence of inflation on the level of non-performing loans in Cyprus commercial banks

The object of this research is the commercial banks of Cyprus. The paper examines the impact of macroeconomic changes, in particular inflation, on the level of non-performing loans in commercial banks. The macroeconomic indicators studied include inflation rates. The research methodology is based on theoretical and methodological analysis of the scientific literature, statistical and econometric methods, as well as observation, comparative method, description, measurement, analysis and modeling. To develop a statistical model that represents the relationship between inflation rates and non-performing loans in Cyprus, the author uses simple linear correlation and data analysis methods such as the correlation coefficient and the determination coefficient.The research results show that the resulting econometric model is acceptable, since the determination coefficient is equal to 0.504, and inflation indicators are decisive for the level of non-performing loans. This is due to the fact that the correlation coefficient between these variables is –0.710, and according to the Chaddock scale the coupling magnitude is high. In addition, the correlation coefficient of inflation and non-performing loans in Cyprus is statistically significant, since the value of the correlation coefficient is beyond the limits of critical values of |0.468|. Also from the research results it is found that in the case of Cyprus, inflation rates are negatively associated with non-performing loans, since the resulting correlation coefficient is a negative number. The resulting model is not used to compile a short-term forecast, due to the insufficient value of the determination coefficient (50.4 %). In general, it is proposed that policy makers devote considerable attention to the determinants of non-performing loans, as the deteriorating conditions of non-performing loans will affect not only banking institutions, but also the general state of the financial system of Cyprus. The practical significance of the research cited in the work lies in the fact that the research results can be used as reference material for business, government and education.

REAKSI PASAR ATAS VARIABEL MAKRO DAN PROFITABILITAS: KAJIAN PERUSAHAAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA TERKATEGORI DEVENSIFE DAN CYCLICAL INDUSTRY

This study examines the influence of macro variables and profitability to the market reaction to the companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange categorized as a defensive industry and cyclical industry. Independent variables in this study are macro variables which consists of inflation (I) and the interest rate (SB) and profitability ratios which consists of return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), gross profit margin (GPM), net profit margin (NPM), as well as the dependent variable is stock returns (RS). Data obtained from ICMD (Indonesian Capital Market Directory), Indonesian Stock Exchange, JSX Monthly, and www.bi.go.id. Objects used in this study were food-beverage industry as a defensive industry and the automotive industry as a cyclical industry in 2007 through 2009. The results showed that the F value is 4.032 with probability value of 0.001, thus statistically significant at 1%. It can be concluded that the macro variables, profitability, and the type of industry (defensive industry and cyclical industry) together have a significant effect on stock returns of manufacturing firms listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Partial coefficient of inflation, interest rates, ROE, GPM, NPM, and the type of industry are 2.695, -4.085, -0.711, -0.616, 0.391, and 0.301 with p-value of 0.002, 0.006, 0.000, 0.033, 0.014, and 0.044 thus statistically significant at the 1% and 5%, thus concluded that the inflation, interest rates, ROE, GPM, NPM, and the types of industries have a significant effect on stock returns of manufacturing firms. Only the ROA variables that do not support the hypothesis.

Monetary Policy Choice in Developing Countries: A Multinomial Probit Model

The Asian crisis of the 1990s brought into question the adequacy of soft pegs for developing countries. The alternatives suggested by the literature are fixed exchange rates and inflation targeting. This study uses data for 142 developing countries whose monetary policies are classified into three mutually exclusive categories: fixed exchange rates (or hard pegs), inflation targeters, and the reference group (soft pegs). Since the dependent variable is unordered and categorical, a multinomial probit model of monetary policy choice is estimated, in which each country chooses from the three monetary policies the one that provides the highest utility. The multinomial probit model is a choice probability model that allows the three choices to be evaluated simultaneously: based on independent variables that represent country characteristics such as openness to trade, vulnerability to external shocks, fiscal dominance and central bank characteristics, the model reports two sets of results - the log of the ratio of the probability for a country to choose inflation targeting relative to soft pegs, and the log of the ratio of the probability for a country to choose fixed exchange rates relative to the reference choice. The study finds that relative to soft pegs, inflation targeters are less open to trade, are more developed, have more diversified exports and have more independent central banks (as reported by the presence of both lower turnover rates for Central Bank governors and tighter restrictions on government borrowing to finance the budget deficit). Countries with fixed exchange rates are more developed and their central banks have less actual independence than those in the reference group. After accounting for the above country characteristics, the results suggest that fiscal dominance (proxied by variables such as government consumption expenditure, central government debt, share of government purchases and cash surplus/deficit, all expressed as percentage of real GDP) does not play a role in the choice of monetary policy. Average inflation rates were also added to the previous estimations, and the inflation coefficients did not attain statistical significance in any of the specifications suggesting that inflation levels do not influence the choice of monetary policy.

Does monetary policy affect the long-run expectations of non-stationary real interest rates?

ABSTRACTIn this article, we analyse whether the monetary policy affects the long-run expectation of the non-stationary real interest rate. The analysis is conducted through Beveridge–Nelson trend decomposition within a cointegrated vector autoregressive model based on the New Keynesian framework. We suggest an augmented test of the conventional co-integration test on the non-stationarity of the real interest rate, which checks whether the co-integration coefficient of inflation is one and the output gap affects the co-integration equilibrium of the nominal interest rate. We further suggest decomposing the long-run expectation of the non-stationary real interest rate into three trends: the interest rate shock (including the monetary shock), inflation shock and output gap shock. According to empirical analyses using monthly US data after the Korean War, the long-run expectation of the non-stationary real interest rate contains an interest rate shock trend and the impulse of the federal fund target rate induces a significant response of the interest rate shock trend. However, the interest rate shock trend has a very small portion of the long-run expectation of the non-stationary real interest rate, which may explain why the monetary policy was not particularly effective in the economic recovery after the global financial crisis.

Did the Bundesbank react to the US dollar exchange rate?

This study explores monetary policy conduct by the German Central Bank just after switching to floating exchange rates and before adopting the European single currency. With the world economy going through the ‘great inflation’ first, and the ‘great moderation’ then, the focus is on the DM/US dollar exchange rate, as a proxy of external constraints. A Taylor-type interest rate rule with a sufficiently high inflation coefficient emerges as an equilibrium relation in a Vector Error Correction model, and operates as a reaction function. The exchange rate enters significantly and the dynamics generated are consistent with the derived rule and the macroeconomic theory. Hence, I argue that the Bundesbank kept an eye on the exchange rate and remained devoted to the long-standing policy of price stability.

Vibration Analysis of a Tire in Ground Contact under Varied Conditions

Abstract The effect of three different factors, which are inflation pressure, vertical load and coefficient of friction on the natural frequencies of a tire (175/70 R13) has been studied. A three dimensional tire model is constructed, using four different material properties and parts in the tire. Mechanical properties of the composite parts are evaluated. After investigating the free vibration, contact analysis is carried out. A concrete block and the tire are modelled together, using three different coefficients of friction. Experiments are run under certain conditions to check the accuracy of the numerical model. The natural frequencies are measured to describe free vibration and vibration of the tire contacted by ground, using a damping monitoring method. It is seen, that experimental and numerical results are in good agreement. On the other hand, investigating the impact of three different factors together is quite difficult on the natural frequencies. When some of these factors are assumed to be constant and the variables are taken one by one, it is easier to assess the effects.

REAKSI PASAR ATAS VARIABEL MAKRO DAN PROFITABILITAS: KAJIAN PERUSAHAAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA TERKATEGORI DEVENSIFE DAN CYCLICAL INDUSTRY

This study examines the influence of macro variables and profitability to the market reaction to the companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange categorized as a defensive industry and cyclical industry. Independent variables in this study are macro variables which consists of inflation (I) and the interest rate (SB) and profitability ratios which consists of return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), gross profit margin (GPM), net profit margin (NPM), as well as the dependent variable is stock returns (RS). Data obtained from ICMD (Indonesian Capital Market Directory), Indonesian Stock Exchange, JSX Monthly, and www.bi.go.id. Objects used in this study were food-beverage industry as a defensive industry and the automotive industry as a cyclical industry in 2007 through 2009. The results showed that the F value is 4.032 with probability value of 0.001, thus statistically significant at 1%. It can be concluded that the macro variables, profitability, and the type of industry (defensive industry and cyclical industry) together have a significant effect on stock returns of manufacturing firms listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Partial coefficient of inflation, interest rates, ROE, GPM, NPM, and the type of industry are 2.695, -4.085, -0.711, -0.616, 0.391, and 0.301 with p-value of 0.002, 0.006, 0.000, 0.033, 0.014, and 0.044 thus statistically significant at the 1% and 5%, thus concluded that the inflation, interest rates, ROE, GPM, NPM, and the types of industries have a significant effect on stock returns of manufacturing firms. Only the ROA variables that do not support the hypothesis.