The surface conductor is the first structural pipe in the development of deep-water oil and gas resources, bearing the top load and suspending various casing layers. Vibrational loads can cause soil structural damage and increase pore pressure, reducing the bearing capacity of the surface conductor and threatening the safety and stability of the subsea wellhead. Based on the vertical force analysis of the surface conductor and considering the impact of vibrational loads on soil strength, a model for the vertical bearing capacity of the surface conductor was established. Utilizing the dynamic Winkler model for pile foundation horizontal dynamic response, the surface conductor was simplified as a bending beam subjected to harmonic vibration, and a control equation for lateral deformation of the surface conductor was established. The effects of vibration load amplitude and frequency on the vertical bearing capacity of surface conductors were analyzed through simulation experiments, resulting in an equivalent bearing capacity coefficient for surface conductors ranging from 0.88 to 0.97. Combining the engineering data from a deep-water block in the South China Sea, the reliability of the theoretical calculation model was validated. The analysis indicates that the maximum bending moment of the surface conductor is approximately 6m below the mudline; low-frequency(0.05Hz–0.2Hz) vibrational loads can reduce the ultimate bearing capacity of the surface conductor by 3%–11%, with the effect gradually diminishing over time. This research provides a theoretical basis for the design of surface conductor in deep-water oil and gas wells.