Coast Of Australia Research Articles

Developing a novel hybrid Auto Encoder Decoder Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit model enhanced with empirical wavelet transform and Boruta-Catboost to forecast significant wave height

Major emphasis presently being made is on using and optimizing more sustainable and renewable energy resources to tackle the upcoming energy demand challenges and probable scarcity induced by several socioeconomic variables. In this research a new hybrid model: combination of empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and Auto Encoder Decoder Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (AED-BiGRU) was used in forecasting daily significant wave height (Hs) in Emu Park and Townsville on the east coast of Australia. A newly developed CatBoost-Boruta algorithm was used to select important Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) obtained from EWT decompositions. Three different machine learning models, including Random Forest (RF), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), and Gene Expression Programming (GEP), were compaed with developed model. The input variables include lagged data of maximum wave height (Hmax), zero up-crossing wave period (Tz), peak energy wave period (T), direction (Dir_T), and sea surface temperature (SST). The comparison between single models showed that the AED-BiGRU model had a better performance than others. Decomposing the time series of the input data using empirical wavelet transform and entering them into the models significantly improved their performances compared to single models for both locations. Among the combined EWT-based models, the EWT-AED-BiGRU model performed better than other models (R = 0.9802, RMSE = 0.0815, MAPE = 8.6600 for Emu Park and R = 0.9735, RMSE = 0.0695, MAPE = 10.6596 for Townsville). The new developed model was used to forecast multi-step ahead significant wave height. Results showed that the EWT-AED-BiGRU model can forecast the significant wave height until 10 days with high accuracy.

Within-population variation in body size plasticity in response to combined nutritional and thermal stress is partially independent from variation in development time.

Ongoing climate change has forced animals to face changing thermal and nutritional environments. Animals can adjust to such combinations of stressors via plasticity. Body size is a key trait influencing organismal fitness, and plasticity in this trait in response to nutritional and thermal conditions varies among genetically diverse, locally adapted populations. The standing genetic variation within a population can also influence the extent of body size plasticity. We generated near-isogenic lines from a newly collected population of Drosophila melanogaster at the mid-point of east coast Australia and assayed body size for all lines in combinations of thermal and nutritional stress. We found that isogenic lines showed distinct underlying patterns of body size plasticity in response to temperature and nutrition that were often different from the overall population response. We then tested whether plasticity in development time could explain, and therefore regulate, variation in body size to these combinations of environmental conditions. We selected five genotypes that showed the greatest variation in response to combined thermal and nutritional stress and assessed the correlation between response of developmental time and body size. While we found significant genetic variation in development time plasticity, it was a poor predictor of body size among genotypes. Our results therefore suggest that multiple developmental pathways could generate genetic variation in body size plasticity. Our study emphasizes the need to better understand genetic variation in plasticity within a population, which will help determine the potential for populations to adapt to ongoing environmental change.

Multigene phylogeny of the Indo–West Pacific genus Enosteoides (Crustacea, Decapoda, Porcellanidae) with description of a new species from Australia

The porcellanid genus Enosteoides Johnson, 1970, currently containing six species, was raised in the 1970s to contain aberrant Indo–West Pacific forms of the diverse and cosmopolitan genus Porcellana Lamarck, 1801. Here, we describe the most aberrant form as Enosteoides spinosussp. nov., from the northeast and northwest coasts of Australia and present results on phylogenetic reconstructions of the genus, based on an 1,870 bp alignment of concatenated DNA sequences of three mitochondrial and one nuclear gene. The new species is peculiarly spiny and has a higher morphological affinity to the type species of the genus, E. ornatus (Stimpson, 1858), than to the other congeneric species. Our molecular results indicate that Enosteoides is not monophyletic. The new species and E. ornatus are encompassed in a clade, which does not share immediate common ancestry with the clade containing the other species of Enosteoides. This clade is more closely related to species of Porcellana and Pisidia. Relatively large interspecific genetic distances between and within the two clades, as compared to distances estimated in American pairs of species on each side of the Panama Isthmus, suggest ancient divergence, probably followed by extinction events or low speciation rate. Relatively large intraspecific distances between Australian populations of the new species of Enosteoides from geographically distant locations suggest some level of phylogeographic structure.

Particular Planetary Aesthetics

Particular Planetary Aesthetics is the title and theme of this Swamphen special issue. It has its origins in Ngā Tūtaki – Encounter/s: Agency, Embodiment, Exchange, Ecologies, the 2019 conference of the Art Association of Australia and New Zealand (AAANZ) held in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, Aotearoa. For this special cross-Tasman event, and from opposite coasts of Australia, we convened panels for participants under two invitational titles: “Affective Encounters, Shadow Traces, and Resonant Naturecultures in the Anthropocene: Particular-planetary aesthetics in the feminist ecosocial turn” and “Encounters with and within the Anthropocene: Speculating on Particular-Planetary Aesthetics.” Our project averred that the work of art in the Anthropocene was under interrogation by contemporary artists, writers, theorists and historians. Connected with this shifting ground, we argued that new energies and collaborations were emerging across the postconventional arts and ecological humanities, creating alternative critical frameworks to engage with: that the human is more-than-human and the social is an eco-social domain in a preternatural age of extinction and climate destruction. We set out to feel the pulse of what contemporary artists and researchers from Aotearoa and Australia were doing, making, speculating on, or writing about in the push and pull—the effects, affects and implications—of the Anthropocene-in-the-making. Our project’s defining call was to explore encounters in a new frame of particular planetary aesthetics: moving from the particular, bodily or affective encounter to trace, reveal or refigure planetary connections, relations and concerns. In this guest editorial note, we write in the wake of the ravages of climate crisis fires in Australia, as well as the borderless COVID-19 pandemic. We flesh out the project in its beginnings above, and introduce eleven papers and three visual portfolios of art research in practice that respond to our provocations before and after the Auckland conference. Collectively these scholarly and aesthetic works consider, trace, and respond to affective encounters of the particular and the planetary in the capricious spaces of the Anthropocene-in-the-making.

Lifestyle migration in place: Notes from the field

In this paper we seek to examine the quest for a better way of life through migration, known as lifestyle migration, by positioning place as the a priori condition through which this experience happens. Following the work of Malpas, we argue that lifestyle migration literature has often positioned place in the background, failing to notice how an individual’s style of life is enacted through place and because of it. In order to understand the lifestyle in these migrations, place must be taken seriously as a grounding theoretical and empirical topic for investigation. Using a topographical approach, we propose using the metaphorical concept of ‘survey marks’ which are designed to understand the different components of place which make up the whole. We set out three of these in our interrogation of empirical research of lifestyle migrants in Tasmania and on the Sunshine Coast in Australia to illustrate the importance of place in this research.

Fragility assessment for new and deteriorated portal framed industrial buildings subjected to tropical cyclone winds

Low-rise portal framed industrial buildings are widely used as warehouses, workshops and storage facilities. Damage surveys following severe tropical cyclones have shown that both structural and non-structural damage can occur to these buildings. While non-structural damage to the building envelope of portal framed industrial buildings are considered by several existing fragility models, almost none exist that include structural failures in the wind fragility assessment. This study develops a fragility assessment method for portal framed industrial buildings that accounts for wind-induced damage to both structural (steel portal frame and end wall frame) and non-structural (metal cladding system and fenestration) building components. Fragility curves are developed for a prototype industrial building located on the cyclone-prone east coast of Australia considering four damage states with increasing damage severity. A Monte Carlo simulation incorporating probabilistic models of the spatio-temporal variable wind pressures, wind-induced demands and component capacities is employed to conduct the fragility assessment for both individual building components and the building system under critical failure modes. It was found that the fragility of structural framing is non-negligible when wind speed exceeds 80% of the design level. Structural framing failure is a major contributor to the most severe damage state and is a necessary inclusion in the fragility assessment for this type of building. A sensitivity analysis also showed that fastener corrosion can significantly increase the fragility of deteriorated buildings near to coastlines, particularly for low levels of damage.

The influence of bait position on the catch of target and non-target sharks in a SMART drumline bather protection program

There is increasing support for shark bite mitigation measures, such as SMART (Shark-Management-Alert-in-Real-Time) drumlines that minimise impacts on target sharks and other marine animals. On the east coast of Australia, SMART drumlines are used in a shark management program to catch and relocate white (Carcharodon carcharias), tiger (Galeocerdo cuvier), and bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas; herein referred to as target sharks). This study examines the effect of bait position relative to the seabed on SMART drumline catches in eastern Australian waters, aiming to optimise catches of target sharks while reducing bycatch. Over 17 months, SMART drumlines were deployed at Ballina and Evans Head, New South Wales. Trace extensions were attached to 3.2 m standard traces to test the effect of bait height above the seabed on shark catch in an experimental design that alternated bait position every fortnight. White and tiger shark catches accounted for 67% of the total catch, whereas bull sharks were infrequently caught (3%). Bait position above the seabed did not significantly influence catch probability of white and tiger sharks. However, catches of Critically Endangered grey nurse sharks (Carcharias taurus) and false alarm events significantly increased when baits were closer to the seabed. Catches of white and tiger sharks varied throughout the year and were linked to seasonal water temperature changes. The standard traces effectively caught target shark species whilst reducing catches of grey nurse sharks and false alarm events, highlighting that the trace length currently used for NSW SMART drumline deployments is optimal.

Observation of juvenile Eastern Blue Groper (Achoerodus viridis) on remnant oyster reefs in New South Wales, Australia.

Observation of juvenile Eastern Blue Groper (Achoerodus viridis) on remnant oyster reefs in New South Wales, Australia.

Analysis of sea level fluctuations around the Australian coast with anomaly time series analysis approach

Thirty two-year observations (1990–2022) of water level from a total of 14 high-quality acoustic tide stations around the coast of Australia deployed for the Australian Baseline Sea Level Monitoring Project were analyzed. The following three approaches were used: Fourier Transform (FT), Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). The water level anomaly was observed to have predominant annual variations with a period of about 12 months based on the Fourier transform. The intrinsic components of stations were extracted in the EMD analysis and the mean period of each of the components was calculated using the zero down crossing method. A regular association was observed between the order of modes and the mean period such that the periods increase by a factor of two on successive modes. The third method used for anomaly analysis was SSA. The number of the obtained components in this method was less than in the EMD. Moreover, the order observed for the components' period in the EMD was not seen in this method. Spectral analysis of Autocorrelation function (ACF) has demonstrated that peak frequencies are almost the same with anomaly spectra so the dominant modes in anomalies are also present in the ACF.

Adaptive monitoring of coral health at Scott Reef where data exhibit nonlinear and disturbed trends over time.

Time series data are often observed in ecological monitoring. Frequently, such data exhibit nonlinear trends over time potentially due to complex relationships between observed and auxiliary variables, and there may also be sudden declines over time due to major disturbances. This poses substantial challenges for modeling such data and also for adaptive monitoring. To address this, we propose methods for finding adaptive designs for monitoring in such settings. This work is motivated by a monitoring program that has been established at Scott Reef; a coral reef off the Western coast of Australia. Data collected for monitoring the health of Scott Reef are considered, and semiparametric and interrupted time series modeling approaches are adopted to describe how these data vary over time. New methods are then proposed that enable adaptive monitoring designs to be found based on such modeling approaches. These methods are then applied to find future monitoring designs at Scott Reef where it was found that future information gain is expected to be similar across a variety of different sites, suggesting that no particular location needs to be prioritized at Scott Reef for the next monitoring phase. In addition, it was found that omitting some sampling sites/reef locations was possible without substantial loss in expected information gain, depending upon the disturbances that were observed. The resulting adaptive designs are used to form recommendations for future monitoring in this region, and for reefs where changes in the current monitoring practices are being sought. As the methods used and developed throughout this study are generic in nature, this research has the potential to improve ecological monitoring more broadly where complex data are being collected over time.

A new species of giant Eunice (Eunicidae, Polychaeta, Annelida) from the east coast of Australia.

A new giant species is described from New South Wales, Australia. Eunicedharastii sp. nov. differs from described Australian species and is most similar to E.aphroditois (Pallas, 1788), E.flavopicta Izuka, 1912, and E.kinbergi Ehlers, 1868. The unique combination of features that characterizes the new species is irregular articulated prostomial appendages; antennae reaching back beyond chaetiger 4; branchiae starting at chaetiger 10, initially button-shaped and distinctly longer than notopodial cirri where best developed; dorsal fleshy knobs on anterior chaetal lobes; notopodial cirri pendulous, abrupt tapering from inflated bases; bidentate compound falcigerous chaetae with both teeth directed laterally, distal tooth much shorter than proximal tooth in median and posterior chaetigers; and dark bidentate subacicular hooks starting at chaetiger 58, tapering to a small head with both teeth directed distally, and proximal tooth much larger than minute and spur-like distal tooth. This new species lives in sandy sediments in coastal waters 1-8 m deep. It is highly mobile and not easy to collect, which may explain why it was not described before.

Prediction of the dynamic distribution for Eucheuma denticulatum (Rhodophyta, Solieriaceae) under climate change in the Indo-Pacific Ocean

Eucheuma is one of the most important commercial red seaweeds in Southeast Asia, and plays an important role in the global seaweed aquaculture. It is expected to exhibit great responses to ocean warming. Here, we used maximum entropy species distribution models (SDMs) to estimate the suitable habitat of Eucheuma denticulatum under present conditions, and to predict the future range dynamics under the four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The best marine environmental factors for E. denticulatum distribution modeling were distance to shore, sea surface temperature and currents velocity. Our results showed that E. denticulatum’ distributions would contract in the Central Indo-Pacific Ocean, especially the regions of the Sunda Shelf, while expanding poleward along the south coast of Australia in 2100. Our study provided important knowledge for the prediction of the tropical seaweed distribution, conservation and sustainable developments of E. denticulatum in the future.

Columnar optical, microphysical and radiative properties of the 2022 Hunga Tonga volcanic ash plumes

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption on January 15, 2022 was one of the most explosive volcanic eruptions of the 21st century and has attracted global attention. Here we show that large numbers of the volcanic aerosols from the eruption broke through the tropopause into the lower stratosphere, forming an ash plume with an overshooting top at 25–30 km altitude. In the four days following the eruption, the ash plume moved rapidly westward for nearly 10,000 km under stable stratospheric conditions characterized by strong tropical easterlies, weak meridional winds and weak vertical motion. The intrusion of the ash plume into the stratosphere resulted in a marked increase in atmospheric aerosol loading across northern Australia, with the aerosol optical depth (AOD) observed by satellites and sun-photometers peaking at 1.5 off the coast of northeastern Australia; these effects lasted for nearly three days. The ash plume was characterized by fine-mode particles clustered at a radius of about 0.26 µm, with an observed peak volume of 0.25 µm3 µm−2. The impact of the ash plume associated with the Hunga Tonga eruption on the stratospheric AOD and radiative balance in the tropical southern hemisphere is remarkable, with an observed volcanic-induced perturbation of the regional stratospheric AOD of up to 0.6. This perturbation largely explains an instantaneous bottom (top) of the atmosphere radiative forcing of −105.0 (−65.0) W m−2 on a regional scale.

Quality assessment and chemical diversity of Australian propolis from Apis mellifera bees

The propolis industry is well established in European, South American and East Asian countries. Within Australia, this industry is beginning to emerge with a few small-scale producers. To contribute to the development of the Australian propolis industry, the present study aimed to examine the quality and chemical diversity of propolis collected from various regions across Australia. The results of testing 158 samples indicated that Australian propolis had pure resin yielding from 2 to 81% by weight, total phenolic content and total flavonoid content in one gram of dry extract ranging from a few up to 181 mg of gallic acid equivalent and 145 mg of quercetin equivalent, respectively. Some Australian propolis showed more potent antioxidant activity than the well-known Brazilian green, Brazilian red, and Uruguayan and New Zealand poplar-type propolis in an in vitro DPPH assay. In addition, an HPLC–UV analysis resulted in the identification of 16 Australian propolis types which can be considered as high-grade propolis owing to their high total phenolic content. Chemometric analysis of their 1H NMR spectra revealed that propolis originating from the eastern and western coasts of Australia could be significantly discriminated based on their chemical composition.

Measuring a Rogue? An Investigation into an Apparent Giant Wave

Abstract An apparent giant wave event having a maximum trough-to-crest height of 21 m and a maximum zero-upcrossing period of 27 s was recorded by a wave buoy at a nearshore location off the southwestern coast of Australia. It appears as a group of waves that are significantly larger both in height and in period than the waves preceding and following them. This paper reports a multifaceted analysis into the plausibility of the event. We first examine the statistics of the event in relation to the rest of the record, where we look at quantities such as maximum-to-significant wave height ratios, ordered crest–trough statistics, and average wave profiles. We then investigate the kinematics of the buoy, where we look at the relationship between the horizontal and vertical displacements of the buoy, and also attempt to numerically reconstruct the giant event using Boussinesq and nonlinear shallow water equations. Additional analyses are performed on other sea states where at least one of the buoy’s accelerometers reached its maximum limit. Our analysis reveals incompatibilities of the event with known behavior of real waves, leading us to conclude that it was not a real wave event. Wave events similar to the one reported in our study have been reported elsewhere and have sometimes been accepted as real occurrences. Our methods of forensically analyzing the giant wave event should be potentially useful for identifying false rogue wave events in these cases.

Second Baroclinic Mode Rossby Waves in the South Indian Ocean

Abstract Many previous studies of midlatitude Rossby waves have examined satellite altimetry data, which reflect variability near the surface above the pycnocline. Argo float observations provide hydrographic data in the upper 2000 m, which likely monitor subsurface variability below the pycnocline. This study examines the variability in meridional velocity at midlatitudes and investigates Rossby waves in the southern Indian Ocean using an ocean reanalysis generated by a 4DVAR method. The results show two modes of variability. One is trapped near the surface and propagates to the west at a phase speed close to that of first baroclinic mode Rossby waves. This mode is representative of variability detected by satellite altimetry. The other mode has a local peak in amplitude at ∼600-m depth and propagates to the west at a phase speed 3 times slower than the first baroclinic mode. Such slowly propagating signals are observed globally, but they are largest in amplitude in the southern Indian Ocean and consistent in phase speed with the second baroclinic mode. Results from numerical experiments using an OGCM show that zonal winds in the tropical Pacific Ocean related to ENSO are the primary driver of slowly propagating signals in the southern Indian Ocean. Wind forcing in the tropical Pacific Ocean drives a surface trapped jet that propagates via the Indonesian Archipelago and excites subsurface variability in meridional velocity in the southern Indian Ocean. In addition, surface heat flux and meridional winds near the west coast of Australia can drive subsurface variability. Significance Statement Many previous studies of midlatitude Rossby waves have used satellite altimetry measurements, which reflect variability in the upper few hundred meters of the ocean. Argo float observations have provided in situ hydrographic observations in the upper 2000 m, and these enable us to examine subsurface variability with high reliability. In this study, we used output from an ocean reanalysis, which assimilates in situ observations, and found that the meridional velocity below the surface (∼600-m depth) of the southern Indian Ocean propagates at a phase speed 3 times slower than that of surface variability. These slowly propagating signals can be of climatic importance because of their possible impact on meridional heat transport. We also discuss the driving force of these slowly propagating signals.

Variability of wave power production of the M4 machine at two energetic open ocean locations: Off Albany, Western Australia and at EMEC, Orkney, UK

Since intermittent and highly variable power supply is undesirable, quantifying power yield fluctuations of wave energy converters (WECs) aids with assessment of potential deployment sites. This paper presents analysis of 3-hourly, monthly, seasonal, and inter-annual variability of power output of the M4 WEC. We compare expected performance from deployment at two wave energy hotspots: off Albany on the south-western coast of Australia and off the European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC) at Orkney, UK. We use multi-decadal wave hindcast data to predict the power that would have been generated by M4 WEC machines. The M4 machine, as a floating articulated device which extracts energy from flexing motion about a hinge, is sized according to a characteristic wavelength of the local wave climate. Using probability distributions, production duration curves, and coefficients of variation we demonstrate larger variability of the 3-hourly power yield at Orkney compared to Albany. At longer timescales, seasonal trends are highlighted through average monthly power values. From a continuity of supply perspective, we investigate occurrences of low production at three different threshold levels and calculate duration and likelihood of such events. Orkney is found to suffer from more persistent lows, causing a more intermittent power output. We also consider the effect of machine size on its power performance. Smaller machines are found to more effectively smooth out the stochastic nature of the underlying wave resource.

Hopeful tourism to grapple and engage with emotions in the Anthropocene

AbstractThe Anthropocene is characterised by people’s significant influences on global systems, which generate both high levels of uncertainty and profound change in our lifetime. We must start to better engage with what it might mean to inhabit and know the world differently, especially as we experience extensive loss and change, and because grief is increasingly with us. At the same time, we must better engage with our emotions productively and find hope through active, conscious processing and mourning. In this commentary, we explore the potential of engaging in nature‐based tourism to help us grapple with, process, and positively engage with the emotions of the Anthropocene. We gained insights about such potential for healing by collaborating with two eco‐tourism enterprises in Australia: Mount Barney Lodge in Southeast Queensland and Salt and Bush Eco Tours in the Peel River Region on the west coast of Australia. We found that nature immersion can heal and renew. Moreover, guides who know about and are connected to or living closely with nature play critical roles as interpreters or intermediaries with nature. They can also inspire gratitude and positive emotions by encouraging us to (re)connect with nature and provide new and transformative perspectives that bring comfort and motivate action.

Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Global Distribution of the Calliphorid Fly Chrysomya albiceps Using GIS

Climate change is expected to influence the geographic distribution of many taxa, including insects. Chrysomya albiceps is one of the most pervasive calliphorid fly with apparent ecological, forensic, and medical importance. However, the global habitat suitability is varied due to climate change. Models that forecast species spatial distribution are increasingly being used in wildlife management, highlighting the need for trustworthy techniques to assess their accuracy. So, we used the maximum entropy implemented in Maxent to predict the current and future potential global geographic distribution of C. albiceps and algorithms of DIVA-GIS to confirm the predicted current model. The Maxent model was calibrated using 2177 occurrence records. Based on the Jackknife test, four bioclimatic variables along with altitude were used to develop the final models. For future models, two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2070 were used. The area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) were used to evaluate the resulted models with values equal to 0.92 (±0.001) and 0.7, respectively. Two-dimensional niche analysis illustrated that the insect can adapt to low and high temperatures (9 °C to 27 °C), and the precipitation range was 0 mm to 2500 mm. The resulted models illustrated the global distribution of C. albiceps with alteration to its distribution in the future, especially on the Mediterranean coasts of Europe and Africa, Florida in the USA, and the coasts of Australia. Such predicted shifts put decision makers against their responsibilities to prevent destruction in economic, medical, and ecological sectors.

Using historical tropical cyclone climate datasets to examine wind speed recurrence for coastal Australia

Likelihood estimates of extreme winds, including those from tropical cyclones (TCs) at certain locations are used to inform wind load standards for structural design. Here, wind speed average recurrence intervals (ARIs) determined from TC climate data dating back to the 1970s in two quantile–quantile adjusted reanalysis datasets (ERA5 and BARRA [1990]), and best-track observations for context, were compared with Standardized ARIs (AS/NZS) across seven tropical and two subtropical Australian inland coastal regions. The novelty of this work lies in determining TC-wind speed ARIs from a range of datasets that are not typically used to evaluate this metric. Inherent differences between the data used to determine the Standard ARIs (large sample size allow for larger extrapolations; GEV function) and TC data ARIs (smaller sample size and less certain data; the more asymptotic Lognormal/Weibull functions are used) led to the use of different extreme value functions. Results indicated that although these are two distinct ways of determining design wind speeds, when they are considered equivalent, there was a moderate reproduction of the ARI curves with respect to the Standard in both reanalysis datasets, suggesting that similar analyses using climate model products can provide useful information on these types of metrics with some caveats. Trends in TC wind strength affecting coastal Australia were also analyzed, indicating a potential slight downtrend in tropical West coast TC wind strength and slight uptrend for tropical East coast TC wind strength, noting considerable uncertainty given the short time period and limitations of data quality including over longer time periods. Such trends are not only limited to the relationship between TC intensity and anthropogenic warming, but also to regional changes in TC frequency and track direction. This could lead to significant trends emerging in regional Australian TC wind gust strength before several decades of warming have occurred. It is hoped that climate models can provide both longer-term and a more homogenous base for these types of evaluations and subsequent projections with respect to climate change simulations.