Coal Power Generation Research Articles

Ash formation and deposition during combustion of pulverized torrefied wood and coal in a 100 kW downflow combustor

Torrefied wood originating from beetle-killed trees is an abundant biomass fuel that can be co-fired with coal for power generation. In this work, pulverized torrefied wood, a bituminous coal (Sufco coal) and their blended fuel with a mixing ratio of 50/50 wt.%, are burned in a 100-kW rated laboratory combustor under similar conditions. Ash aerosols in the flue gas and ash deposits on a temperature-controlled surface are sampled during combustion of the three fuels. Results show that ash formation and deposition for wood combustion are notably different from those for coal combustion, revealing different mechanisms. Compared to the coal, the low-ash torrefied wood produces low concentrations of fly ash in the flue gas but significantly increased yields (per input ash) of ash that has been vaporized. All the mineral elements including the semi- or non-volatile metals in the wood are found to be more readily partitioned into the PM10 ash than those in the coal. The inside layer deposits sticking to the surface and the loosely bound outside deposits exposed to the gas both show a linear growth in weight during torrefied wood test. Unlike coal combustion, in which the concentration of (vaporized) ash PM1 controls the inside deposition rate, wood combustion shows that the formation of porous bulky deposits by the condensed residual ash dominates the inside deposition process. Co-firing removes these differences between the wood and coal, making the blended fuel to have more similar fly ash characteristics and ash deposition behavior to those of the bituminous coal. In addition, results also show some beneficial effects of co-firing coal with torrefied wood, including reduction of the total deposition rate and the minimization of corrosive alkali species produced by wood.

석탄의 발열량 범주별 CO2 배출량 분석을 통한 석탄발전의 온실가스 감축 방안 연구

In this paper, we sought to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from coal power plants by analyzing CO₂ emissions by coal calorific value. To this end, the analysis data of coal introduced to three coal power plants in Korea from 2014 to 2021 was used, and the CO₂ emissions for high-calorific coal, medium-calorific coal, and low-calorific coal were analyzed. The CO₂ emission factors were 95,264 kgCO₂/TJ for high-calorific coal, 97,096 kgCO₂/TJ for medium-calorific coal, and 100,027 kgCO₂/TJ for low-calorific coal. CO₂ emission intensity was 891.33 kgCO₂/MWh for high-calorific coal, 908.47 kgCO₂/MWh for medium-calorific coal, and 935.89 kgCO₂/MWh for low-calorific coal. Therefore, CO₂ emissions can be reduced by increasing the proportion of high-calorific coal compared to low-calorific coal in coal power generation. However, some issues need to be addressed before expanding the proportion of high-calorific coal. First, as particulate matter emissions are higher for high-calorific coal, the performance of air pollution prevention facilities must be improved. Second, because the price of high-calorific coal is higher than that of low-calorific coal, policy changes regarding the individual consumption tax imposed on coal are needed to improve the price competitiveness of high-calorific coal.

Evaluating provincial-level employment challenge during the coal transition in China

As China works to move away from coal in its energy system as a critical strategy to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, there are several challenges which will affect the coal transition. One challenge that has not been fully explored is the impact on coal employment. There are millions of people employed in various sectors along the coal supply chain, including mining, processing, transport, and power generation. In this study, we developed a framework to understand the magnitude and characteristics of the employment challenges associated with the coal transition across provinces. Specifically, the magnitude and characteristics of the challenges are evaluated from multiple dimensions, including existing coal sector employment, coal production, coal consumption, GDP contribution from the coal industry, and coal mining productivity, to explore how the transition of the coal industry will likely affect different provinces. The results showed that provinces with large total coal employment today are often those with high coal production and consumption, high GDP contribution from the coal industry, and low productivity of coal mining. We found that employment impacts of a coal transition will not be equally distributed in China, as both the magnitude and characteristics of the employment challenges vary substantially across all provinces. It is therefore important to develop a tailored strategy to tackle specific needs for each province.

Experimental study on PM10 formation characteristics of co-combustion with pulverized coal and sludge

At present, the output of municipal sludge in China is increasing year by year, and co-combustion of sludge and pulverized coal for power generation is a means to treat sludge in large quantities. However, the co-combustion of sludge and pulverized coal will generate a lot of particulate matter (PM). In this paper, the formation characteristics of particulate matter (PM10) produced by the co-combustion of sludge and pulverized coal were studied. The effect of the furnace temperature and the sludge mixing ratio on the mass-based particle size distribution and elemental composition of PM10 in sludge, coal combustion and co-combustion was discussed. The experiment results show that the mass-based particle size distribution of PM10 produced by pulverized coal and sludge combustion are both bimodal, while the elemental composition and particle size distribution of PM10 are different. Whether burning alone or co-firing, increasing the furnace temperature will increase the mass yield of PM10. Increasing the temperature promotes particle fragmentation more than the melting aggregation of particulate minerals, increasing PM0.4–10 yield. The mass yield of PM10 produced by coal combustion is higher than that of sludge. In the sludge addition ratio range ≤ 30%, increasing the sludge addition ratio will reduce the mass yield of PM10. The synergistic effect exists between sludge and pulverized coal co-combustion. Compared to the weighted calculation results, the content of main elements Si, Ca, Fe and S in PM0.4 decreases, while in PM0.4–10 the content of Si decreases and the content of Ca, Fe, Al, and P increases. At a low sludge addition ratio of 10%, the elemental composition of PM10 with the particle size distribution trend is consistent with that of pulverized coal, and sludge co-firing takes negligible effect on PM10 formation.

System and component development for long-duration energy storage using particle thermal energy storage

Energy storage, at various scales, will be required to maintain reliable power supply from variable renewable resources, and improve grid resilience. Long-duration energy storage (10–100 h) can substitute baseload coal power generation and increase levels of renewable power supply. Thermal energy storage (TES) has siting flexibility and the ability to store a large capacity of energy, and thus it has the potential to meet the needs of long-duration energy storage. A novel TES system was developed by using solid particles as storage media and charging/discharging electricity from renewable power connected via the electric grid. The particle TES uses low-cost silica sand at 30–40$/Ton that is stable at high temperatures of>1,000 °C. Thus, the particle TES system has an overall low storage cost and high thermal-power efficiency. Key components of the system were conceptually designed and modeled for their performance. Conversion of electricity to thermal energy using electric heating can achieve a>98% charging efficiency, and the conversion of thermal energy back to electricity uses an air-Brayton combined power cycle with > 52% thermal-to-electricity efficiency at > 1,170 °C to achieve a > 50% roundtrip efficiency after subtracting estimated plant parasitic losses. Laboratory-scale prototypes were fabricated and tested to verify their design approaches and operations relevant to product-scale components.

AN ECONOMY-WIDE FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING THE STRANDED ASSETS OF ENERGY PRODUCTION SECTOR UNDER CLIMATE POLICIES

Climate change mitigation efforts, which require the transition away from carbon-intensive activities, can pose financial risks for owners of fossil fuel assets and investors that the finance companies are engaged in greenhouse gas-emitting activities. For instance, fossil fuel extraction may be significantly scaled-back, and coal-power plants may be idled or even phased out prematurely, thus becoming stranded assets for the shareholders. Using a global general equilibrium model with detailed energy sector and capital stock structures, we estimate the corresponding stranded assets under various emissions mitigation scenarios. Our findings reveal that, depending on the policy scenario, the global net present value of unrealized fossil fuel output through 2050 relative to a “no policy” scenario is between 21.5 and 30.6 trillion USD, and that of stranded assets in coal power generation is between 1.3 and 2.3 trillion USD. The analytical framework presented in our study complements existing research, in which macroeconomic variables required for estimating the stranded assets are often derived from models with more simplified assumptions. Therefore, individual firms and financial institutions can combine our economy-wide analysis with details on their own investment portfolios to determine their climate-related transition risk exposure.

Energy Efficiency Improvement of Composite Energy Building Energy Supply System Based on Multiobjective Network Sensor Optimization

In order to solve the problem of improving the energy efficiency of the energy supply system, the author proposes a method for improving the energy efficiency of the energy supply system of composite energy buildings based on multiobjective grid optimization, the method solves the energy efficiency improvement of the grid-optimized composite energy building energy supply system, with the increasing material needs of people, the traditional fossil energy consumption is increasing, and the environmental pollution problem is also becoming more and more serious, and people will face serious energy crisis. Due to the high proportion of coal in China’s energy, most thermal power plants use coal as fuel to generate electricity. In the process of coal combustion power generation, a large amount of air pollutants such as CO2, SO2, and Nox are produced, which destroys the ecological environment. In order to alleviate the energy crisis and reduce the emission of polluting gases, the development of renewable energy sources such as wind energy and solar energy is extremely important. Electricity supply and heat supply account for the main part of China’s energy consumption, 40% of China’s energy consumption is used for electricity supply, and 25% is used for heat supply. In terms of electricity supply, 12% of electricity is used for residential use, about 74% is used for industrial production, and 14% is used for commercial development.

Green Mining Takes Place at the Power Plant

The number of large coal power plants, characterized by pithead plants, is increasing rapidly in major coal mining countries around the world. Overburden movement caused by coal mining and greenhouse gas emissions caused by coal thermal power generation are intertwined, and have become important challenges for mine ecological environment protection at present and in the future. In order to provide more options for green mining in large coal power plants, a large coal power base in northwest China was taken as the researching background in this paper, and a green mining model considering the above two aspects of ecological environment damages was proposed; that is, the carbon dioxide greenhouse gas produced by coal-fired power plants can be geologically trapped in goaf, whose overburden stability is controlled by backfill strips made of solid mine waste. In order to explore the feasibility of this model, the bearing strength of the filled gray brick consisting mainly of aeolian sand and fly ash under different curing methods was firstly studied, and it was discovered that the strength of the gray brick significantly improved after carbonization curing. After that, X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were employed to compare the mineral composition and its spatial morphology in gray brick before and after carbonization, and it is believed that the formation of dense acicular calcium carbonate after carbonization curing was the fundamental reason for the improvement of its bearing strength. Finally, a series of stope numerical models were established with UDEC software to analyze the surface settlement, crack propagation height and air tightness of the overlying strata, respectively, when goaf was supported by the backfilling strips with carbonized gray brick. The research results of this paper showed that the stability of overlying strata in goaf can be effectively controlled by adjusting the curing methods, width and spacing of the filled gray brick, so as to facilitate the following geological sequestration of carbon dioxide greenhouse gas in goaf. Consequently, the ecological environment damages caused by coal mining and utilization in a large coal power base can be resolved as a whole, and the purpose of green mining can be achieved as desired.

Global liquefied natural gas expansion exceeds demand for coal-to-gas switching in paris compliant pathways

The shift from coal to natural gas in the power sector has led to significant reductions in carbon emissions. The shale revolution that led to this shift is now fueling a global expansion in liquefied natural gas (LNG) export infrastructure. In this work, we assess the viability of global LNG expansion to reduce global carbon emissions through coal-to-gas switching in the power sector under three temperature targets—Paris compliant 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and business-as-usual 3 °C. In the near to medium term (pre-2035), LNG-derived coal-to-gas substitution reduces global carbon emissions across all temperature targets as there is significantly more coal power generation than the LNG required to substitute it. However, we find that long-term planned LNG expansion is not compatible with the Paris climate targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C—here, the potential for emissions reductions from LNG through coal-to-gas switching is limited by the availability of coal-based generation. In a 3 °C scenario, high levels of coal-based generation through mid-century make LNG an attractive option to reduce emissions. Thus, expanding LNG infrastructure can be considered as insurance against the potential lack of global climate action to limit temperatures to 1.5 °C or 2 °C. In all scenarios analyzed, low upstream methane leakage and high coal-to-gas substitution are critical to realize near-term climate benefits. Large-scale availability of carbon capture technology could significantly extend the climate viability of LNG. Investors and governments should consider stranded risk assets associated with potentially shorter lifetimes of LNG infrastructure in a Paris-compatible world.

Climate Change Perspective: The Advantage and Disadvantage of COVID-19 Pandemic

Government initiatives during the COVID-19 outbreak had a significant impact on global energy consumption patterns. Many international borders were blocked, and individuals were confined to their homes, restricting mobility and changing social habits. The lockdowns introduced economic, physical, and social pastimes to a halt. However, as an advantage, the world had a good effect on air quality, the environment, and greenhouse gases (GHGs), in particular CO2 emissions. When compared to the mean 2019 levels, daily worldwide CO2 emissions had fallen by –17 % (–11 to –25 % for 1) by early April 2020, with changes in surface transportation accounting for little under half of the decline. The total global CO2 reduction from January to April 2020 was predicted to be more than 1749 Mt CO2 (a 14.3 % decline), with the transportation sector contributing the most (58%) followed by coal power generation (29%), and industry (10%). As a result, transportation was identified as the primary source of more than half of the emissions reduction during the epidemic. As of August 23, 2021, 193 countries produced 8.4 million tons of pandemic-related plastic waste, with 25.9 thousand tons dumped into the ocean, accounting for 1.5 percent of total riverine plastic discharge globally. As a result of China and India's record-breaking confirmed cases, MMPW generation and discharge are projected to be more skewed toward Asia. The study found that hospital trash accounts for 73% of global discharge and that Asia accounts for 72% of global discharge, indicating the need for better medical waste management in emerging countries. This review highlights the brief lessening in GHG outflows and expanded request for single-use plastics, including the weight of an as of now out-of-control worldwide plastic squander emergency caused by the COVID-19 widespread. This review also will be helpful for people to understand the COVID-19 impact on climate change point of view. There is advantage and disadvantage brought by this pandemic and it's the best time to change the new normal of globalization. Global policies makers should consider the acute need to change the policies for a circular economy with the best environment sustainable, both during the pandemic and, more significantly, thereafter. The authors of the reference articles on the COVID-19 pandemic hope their findings will aid attempts to better understand the disease's relationship to climate change. If lessons from both global crises are learned, the world may be better prepared to deal with global climate change, which has local consequences.

Evaluation of Decarbonization Technologies for ASEAN Countries via an Integrated Assessment Tool

A new assessment tool for evaluating decarbonization technologies that considers each technology’s sustainability, security, affordability, readiness, and impact for a specific country is proposed. This tool is applied to a set of decarbonization technologies for the power, transport, and industry sectors for the ten Southeast Asian countries that constitute ASEAN. This results in a list of the most promising decarbonization technologies, as well as the remaining issues that need more research and development. This study reveals several common themes for ASEAN’s decarbonization. First, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key technology for large-scale CO2 emission. Second, for countries that rely heavily on coal for power generation, switching to gas can halve their CO2 emission in the power sector and should be given high priority. Third, hydropower and bioenergy both have high potential for the majority of ASEAN countries if their sustainability issues can be resolved satisfactorily. Fourth, replacing conventional vehicles by electric vehicles is the overarching theme in the road transport sector, but will result in increased demand for electricity. In the medium to long term, the use of hydrogen for marine fuel and biofuels for aviation fuel are preferred solutions for the marine and aviation transport sectors. Fifth, for the industry sector, installing CCS in industrial plants should be given priority, but replacing fossil fuels by blue hydrogen for high-temperature heating is the preferred long-term solution.

Multiple processes modeling and identification for a cleaner supercritical power plant via Grey Wolf Optimizer

Validated mathematical modeling of clean coal power generation technologies is an essential subject of research that has a realized importance in the scientific communities working on the energy production and environment protection. This study presents a complete multiple processes modeling and simulation of a practical cleaner coal supercritical power plant (SCPP). The model covers a wider range of operation than ever published models before, which focus either on startup or on once-through operation. The model in this paper rather embeds the whole journey from recirculation mode during startup process up to the maximum produced power, then to emergency shut-down process in the same model. It has been found that slight adaptations in the once-through model parameters are sufficient to switch from one mode of process to another, which is useful in retaining simplified structure of the model. The fixed parameters of the model have been optimized by modern meta-heuristic technique of Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) and compared with Genetic Algorithms (GA). It has been proved that GWO has a sort of superiority over the GA for parameter identification of the SCPP model.

The effect of carbon pricing on cut-off grade and optimal pit limits in a high grade copper-cobalt deposit

This paper aims to identify the effect that a carbon price will have on the economic viability of a high grade copper-cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, through examination of Scope 1 and 2 emissions produced directly through mining and processing activities. Four scenarios were analysed ranging from no carbon pricing scaling up to $100/t assuming hydroelectric power was unavailable and replaced with coal fired power. Limited academic literature exists that discusses the effect carbon can have on the economics of a mining operation, with literature predominantly focusing on quantities of carbon produced from mining and processing activities. Results show that a $30/t carbon price increases the mining cost by 2%, while the associated cost in processing from coal and diesel consumption producing carbon, results in an increase of 0.2%. Raising the carbon price to $100/t results in the mining cost increasing by 5%, and processing costs increasing by 0.3%. Quantifying the effect of hydroelectric power over coal fired power concludes that processing costs increase by 12.7% resulting in a cut-off grade change removing 2% Cu of the ore from being economic. The revenue factor 1.00 shell examined in all cases varied less than 1% in volume, however undiscounted cash flow varied as the quantity and cost of carbon in each scenario increased. When carbon does not influence the economic viability of the operation, 4.2 Mt of CO2 is produced with mining activities producing 3.6 Mt and processing activities producing 0.6 Mt, respectively. The use of coal for power generation instead of hydroelectric results in 25.3 Mt of carbon being produced over the life of mine from both mining and milling activities, an additional 21.1 Mt when compared to the base case scenario that utilises hydroelectric power. The influence of a carbon price on a high grade copper-cobalt deposit with relative high processing costs due to hydrometallurgy processing requiring gangue acid consumption, has a minor effect on optimal pit limits and cut-off grade.

Mechanism and Algorithm for Stable Trading Matching between Coal Mining and Power Generation Companies in China

This paper is concerned with stable trading between the coal mining and power generation companies in China. Under the current marketized coal and planned electricity price systems, barriers to price shifting between coal and electricity are created and conflicts between the two sectors are aggravated. The stable trading matching between coal mining and power generation companies is not only an effective means to resolve the conflict in the coal trading market, but also a ballast stone for price stabilization and supply guarantees in coal trading. Based on the two-sided matching theory, this paper starts from the micro market preference and matching willingness of coal mining and power generation companies, puts forward the conceptual framework of the pairwise stable matching of both sides, innovates a mechanism for trading between coal mining and power generation companies, and designs a stable trading matching algorithm. The algorithm has certain theoretical innovation significance from the matching problem of non-separable commodities to that of separable commodities considering the trading volume between coal mining and power generation companies. Furthermore, it is a complement and perfection of the existing coal–power trading platform in its transaction mechanism and trading function. The results reveal that the trading relations between coal mining and power generation companies under the stable matching mechanism are resistant to disintegration and that the pairwise stable matching result is sensitive.

Location and Technical Requirements for Photovoltaic Power Stations in Poland

The objective of Poland’s energy policy is to guarantee energy security while enhancing economic competitiveness and energy efficiency, thus minimizing the power sector’s environmental impact and optimizing the use of energy resources in the country. Poland is not the only European country to rely on coal for power generation. Historical factors and large coal deposits act as natural barriers to increasing the share of renewable energy in the Polish power sector. Yet, today, environmental concerns and climate change are prompting many countries to move away from fossil fuels. Renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind energy, are an alternative to traditional energy generated from fossil fuels. However, investors developing solar and wind farms in Poland encounter numerous problems at each stage of the project. These difficulties are associated mainly with the location, technical requirements, infrastructure and formal and legal documents. This study aimed to identify the key factors that influence the development of photovoltaic power stations in Poland, with special emphasis on the choice of location and technical aspects of the investment process. The demand for clean energy and the renewable energy prospects for Poland are discussed based on the example of solar farms. Sixty-seven prospective farm locations were analyzed, and the results of the analysis were used to identify the main barriers and opportunities for renewable energy development in Poland. The option of connecting solar farms to the existing power grid was also examined. This study demonstrates that the development of solar farms in Poland is inhibited mainly by technical barriers, in particular the lack of options for connecting farms to the power grid, as well as the absence of support mechanisms and dedicated legislative solutions, rather than environmental obstacles.

Europe beyond coal – An economic and climate impact assessment

Several European countries have decided to phase out coal power generation. Emissions from electricity generation are already regulated by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), and in some countries like Germany the phaseout of coal will be accompanied with cancellation of emissions allowances. In this paper we examine the consequences of phasing out coal, for CO2 emissions, the electricity sector, and the broader economy. We show analytically how the welfare impacts for a phaseout region depend on i) whether and how allowances are canceled, ii) whether other countries join phaseout policies, and iii) terms-of-trade effects in the ETS market. Based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model for the European economy, we quantify the economic and environmental impacts of alternative phaseout scenarios, considering both unilateral and multilateral phaseouts. We find that terms-of-trade effects in the ETS market play an important role for the welfare implications across EU member states. For Germany, coal phaseout combined with unilateral cancellation of allowances is found to be welfare-improving if the German citizens value CO2 emissions reductions at 65 Euro per ton or more.

China’s decarbonization and energy security plans will reduce seaborne coal imports: Results from an installation-level model

<h2>Summary</h2> China aims for net-zero carbon emissions by 2060 and an emission peak before 2030. This will reduce its consumption of coal for power generation and steelmaking. Simultaneously, China aims for improved energy security, primarily with expanded domestic coal production and transport infrastructure. We analyze effects of both these pressures on Chinese coal imports, with a purpose-built model of China's coal sector with installation-level detail, representing roughly a 300-fold increase in granularity versus earlier models. We find that reduced Chinese coal consumption affects seaborne imports much more strongly than domestic supply. Recent expansions of rail and port capacities, which reduce the costs of getting domestic coal to southern coastal provinces, will further reduce the demand for seaborne thermal coal and amplify the effect of decarbonization on coal imports. Seaborne coking coal imports are also likely to fall because of the expanded supply of cheap and high-quality coking coal from neighboring Mongolia.

Stray Load Loss Valuation in Electrical Transformers: A Review

The electricity production opus in South Africa has transformed over the last few years from predominantly coal power generation to a blend of renewable energy generation. The necessity emerges to ascertain whether electrical transformer design philosophies in local manufacturers are contemporary in reference to customer specifications, under increasing penetration of harmonics and distortion as a result of increasing deployment of decentralized power systems. Accurate computation of transformer stray load loss is imperative in localizing the hotspot regions and design of adequate insulation system and consequently cooling system. This loss must also be met by manufacturers based on the customer specifications to avoid penalties. The review of current scientific works affirms the ongoing interest in utilizing the advancement of computational power for painstaking evaluation and management of stray load loss in electric transformers. This article confers overview research, evolution and application of diverse computer-based tools for analyzing the stray load loss based on over 60 published scientific works. Mathematical formulations that can be practically employed by transformer designers during the design phase under normal and harmonic load current conditions are discussed.

Policy Effect on Clean Coal-Fired Power Development in China

The coal power policy has been influencing the development of China’s coal power industry from the aspects of quantity control, technological progress, and market-oriented reform. Meanwhile, the strategic coal power policy of the mid- and long-term future is yet to be well-designed under the carbon peak and neutrality targets. Therefore, it is necessary to have a comprehensive overview of the coal power policy during the past and give targeted prospects for policy-makers. This paper discusses the policy effect on the development and technological progress of the coal power industry by giving an overview of the policy and reform processes of the coal power industry in China in the past 20 years. The results indicate that China’s coal power policy has promoted the progress of coal power generation technology, optimized the coal power structure, accelerated the diversified investment in the power industry, and alleviated the overcapacity problem of coal power generation. After discussion, we conclude that: (1) It is necessary to gradually reduce the average generation hours of coal-fired power units while retaining high-quality coal-fired power units. (2) The renewable energy enterprises that adopt the support services of coal power enterprises should provide reasonable capacity compensation costs to create favorable conditions and achieve sustainable development for China’s coal power industry. (3) To deploy coal power units combined with large-scale renewable energy in the western and northern regions will achieve efficient energy utilization. (4) Different strategies should be adopted for different coal power units, and the peak regulation potential of coal power units with low-capacity parameters should be explored.

Estimating the Employment and Fiscal Consequences of Thermal Coal Phase-Out in China

China hosts over half of global coal-fired power generation capacity and has the world’s largest coal reserves. Its 2060 carbon neutrality goal will require coal-fired electricity generation to shrink dramatically, with or without carbon capture and storage technology. Two macroeconomic areas in which the socioeconomic impact of this decline is felt are losses in jobs and tax revenues supported by thermal coal mining, transport and power generation. At the national level, under a ‘baseline’ (B) scenario consistent with China’s carbon neutrality goal, labour productivity growth in coal mining implies that significant job losses will occur nationally in the medium term, even if all coal plants continue operating as planned. Jobs supported by the coal power industry would decline from an estimated 2.7 million in 2021, to 1.44 million in 2035 and 94,000 in 2050, with jobs losses from mining alone expected to exceed 1.1 million by 2035. Tax revenues from thermal coal would total approximately CNY 300 billion annually from 2021–2030, peaking in 2023 at CNY 340 billion. This is significantly less than estimated subsidies of at least CNY 480 billion, suggesting coal is likely a net fiscal drain on China’s public finances, even without accounting for the costs of local pollution and the social cost of carbon. As coal plant retirements accelerate, from 2034 onwards, fiscal revenues begin to fall more rapidly, with rates of decline rising from 1% in the 2020s to over 10% a year by the 2040s. More aggressive climate policy and technology scenarios bring job and tax losses forward in time, while a No Transition policy, in which all currently planned coal plants are built, delays but does not ultimately prevent these losses. At the provincial level, China’s major coal-producing provinces will likely face challenges in managing the localised effects of expected job losses and finding productive alternative uses for this labour. Governments of coal-producing provinces like Inner Mongolia, with an industry highly dependent on exports to other provinces, are more exposed than others to declining tax revenues from coal, and more insulated from job losses, given their high current degree of labour efficiency. Although their provincial revenues are likely to remain stable until the early 2030s under the B scenario, the possibility of increasing policy stringency underlines the need for revenue and skill base diversification. At the firm level, China’s ‘Big Five’ state-owned power companies were responsible for over 40% of both jobs and tax revenues in 2021. The number of jobs supported by the activities of each of the largest ten firms, with one exception, will decline by 71–84% by the early 2040s, with the tax contribution of each declining by 43–69% in the same period.