Global liquefied natural gas expansion exceeds demand for coal-to-gas switching in paris compliant pathways

Abstract

The shift from coal to natural gas in the power sector has led to significant reductions in carbon emissions. The shale revolution that led to this shift is now fueling a global expansion in liquefied natural gas (LNG) export infrastructure. In this work, we assess the viability of global LNG expansion to reduce global carbon emissions through coal-to-gas switching in the power sector under three temperature targets—Paris compliant 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and business-as-usual 3 °C. In the near to medium term (pre-2035), LNG-derived coal-to-gas substitution reduces global carbon emissions across all temperature targets as there is significantly more coal power generation than the LNG required to substitute it. However, we find that long-term planned LNG expansion is not compatible with the Paris climate targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C—here, the potential for emissions reductions from LNG through coal-to-gas switching is limited by the availability of coal-based generation. In a 3 °C scenario, high levels of coal-based generation through mid-century make LNG an attractive option to reduce emissions. Thus, expanding LNG infrastructure can be considered as insurance against the potential lack of global climate action to limit temperatures to 1.5 °C or 2 °C. In all scenarios analyzed, low upstream methane leakage and high coal-to-gas substitution are critical to realize near-term climate benefits. Large-scale availability of carbon capture technology could significantly extend the climate viability of LNG. Investors and governments should consider stranded risk assets associated with potentially shorter lifetimes of LNG infrastructure in a Paris-compatible world.