CO2 Emission Reduction Targets Research Articles

Achieving Carbon-Efficient Transportation

Transportation is a major user of carbon-based fuels and is increasingly being highlighted as the sector that contributes the least to carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction targets. This paper reports on the findings of the current Visioning and Backcasting for Transport in London study, which considers the role of the transportation sector in reducing CO2 emissions in London. A backcasting study approach was used, and the likely impacts of alternative images of 2025 were tested. A transportation and carbon simulation game was also developed for London. Within this game, users are able to consider a series of potential policy packages, such as low-emission vehicles, alternative fuels, pricing regimens, public transportation, walking and cycling, strategic and local urban planning, information and communication technologies, smarter choices, ecological driving and slower speeds, long-distance travel substitution, freight transportation, and international air, and select various levels of application to help achieve headline CO2 emissions reduction targets. The roles of two external enabling measures, carbon rationing and oil pricing, were also considered. The paper considers an optimized policy package for 2025. A deep reduction in CO2 emissions from the transportation sector is theoretically possible, yet difficult to achieve. The main perceived problem is in engendering an interest in the public to change consumer purchases and behaviors. The huge challenge now is to map out and discuss a variety of policy pathways to carbon efficiency in the transportation sector and then to enable and achieve a level of consumer and behavioral change consistent with strategic aspiration.

INTRODUCTION OF A SECTORAL APPROACH TO TRANSPORT SECTOR FOR POST-2012 CLIMATE REGIME: A Preliminary Analysis Using Marginal Abatement Cost Curves

Recently, the concept of sectoral approaches has been discussed actively under the UNFCCC framework as it could realize GHG mitigations for the Kyoto Protocol and beyond. However, most studies have not introduced this approach to the transport sector explicitly or analyzed its impacts quantitatively. In this paper, a sectoral approach is introduced that aims to set sector-specific emission reduction targets for the transport sector for the post-2012 climate regime. It is supposed that developed countries will commit to the sectoral reduction target and key developing countries such as China and India will have the sectoral no-lose targets--no penalties for the failure to meet targets but the right to sell exceeding reductions--for the medium term commitment (i.e,. 2013-2020). Six scenarios of total CO2 emission reduction target in the transport sector in 2020, varying from 5-30% reductions from the 2005 level are established. The paper analyzes shares of emission reductions and abatement costs to meet targets for key developed countries including the United States, EU-15, Russia, Japan, and Canada. To analyze impacts of the proposed approach, sectoral marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves are generated by region through extending a top-down economic model, namely the AIM/CGE model. The total emission reduction targets are analyzed against the developed MAC curves for the transport sector in order to obtain an equal marginal abatement cost that derives optimal emission reduction for each country and minimizes total abatement cost. The results indicate that the United States will play a crucial role in GHG mitigations in the transport sector as it is most responsible for emission reductions (i.e., accounts for over 70%) while Japan will least reduce (i.e., accounts for about 3%) for all scenarios. In the case of a 5% reduction, the total abatement is equal to 171.1 MtCO2 with a total cost of $1.61 billion; and in the case of a 30% reduction, the total abatement is equal to 1,026.4 MtCO2 with a total cost of $116.17 billion. The emission reductions according to total targets of the 5 developed regions could cover 3-15% of global CO2 emissions in the transport sector in 2020.

Energy and climate policies to 2020: the impacts of the European “20/20/20” approach

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to quantify the possible interactions among the three European objectives in the horizon of 2020: the reduction of 20 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG); the saving of 20 per cent of the European energy consumption; and a share of 20 per cent of renewable energies in the overall energy consumption. Particular focus is, however, placed on the influence of the CO2 emission reduction targets and on their consequences on the carbon price in 2020.Design/methodology/approachIn order to explore the interactions among the three European objectives and their induced effects, a number of scenarios are tested within a combination of two modeling tools: the POLES world energy model and ASPEN, an auxiliary model dedicated to the analysis of quota trading systems. With reasonable assumptions for the burden sharing among the member states, the energy efficiency objectives and the renewable energy targets are achieved using national quota systems in each European country (white and green certificate systems and their implicit prices), while the CO2 emission reduction is carried out within the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in line with the objective of 20 per cent emission reduction.FindingsThe paper shows, in particular, that the two quota policies (white certificates and green certificates) decrease significantly the European marginal emission reduction cost and consequently, the compliance costs for ETS participants. The high‐renewable target compliance cost could be reduced significantly if carbon price signal and energy saving policies are in place. The paper also shows that the sole carbon price signal has a limited influence for stimulating renewable energies and energy savings and thus concludes on the need for specific policies targeting these two areas.Originality/valueThis paper is a first attempt to comprehensively deal with the economic fundamentals of the 3D regulatory system proposed by the Commission for Energy and Climate and is of value in proposing a comprehensive approach of the economics of the “20/20/20” European policy.

Atmospheric stabilization of CO2 emissions: Near-term reductions and absolute versus intensity-based targets

This study analyzes CO2 emissions reduction targets for various countries and geopolitical regions by the year 2030 to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 450 ppm (550 ppm including non-CO2 greenhouse gases) level. It also determines CO2 intensity cuts that would be required in those countries and regions if the emission reductions were to be achieved through intensity-based targets without curtailing their expected economic growth. Considering that the stabilization of CO2 concentrations at 450 ppm requires the global trend of CO2 emissions to be reversed before 2030, this study develops two scenarios: reversing the global CO2 trend in (i) 2020 and (ii) 2025. The study shows that global CO2 emissions would be limited at 42 percent above 1990 level in 2030 if the increasing trend of global CO2 emissions were to be reversed by 2020. If reversing the trend is delayed by 5 years, global CO2 emissions in 2030 would be 52 percent higher than the 1990 level. The study also finds that to achieve these targets while maintaining expected economic growth, the global average CO2 intensity would require a 68 percent drop from the 1990 level or a 60 percent drop from the 2004 level by 2030.

Household Behavior Selections under CO2 Emission Constraint

Reducing human–caused CO2 emissions to acceptable levels must become a global objective of our modern society. One way to meet this objective is to introduce a constraint on household annual CO2 emission (HACO2). However, behaviors that reduce CO2 emissions, may appear too expensive, or to worsen living conditions. Although the goal of controlling CO2 emissions is widely accepted, in practice it is not easy to reduce energy consumption. This paper develops a CO2 emission trading scheme (CETS) framework for households based on the definition HACO2. In this study, a city′s CO2 emission is assumed to be the sum of all HACO2. The CO2 constraint for a single household is determined by the city′s total CO2 emission reduction target. Multi–agent simulator is applied to clarify household behavior–selections under such constraint, and to find the effects of total CO2 emission within the urban model. Simulations are performed with CETS (Case 1) and without CETS (Case 2). Results indicate 1) Under a CO2 constraint, agents choose behaviors to meet the HACO2 constraint. Total CO2 emissions within the urban model decrease toward the pre–determined reduction target. 2) The CETS framework for household level is proved not only cost–efficient but also promotes the process of reducing CO2 emissions. 3) An agent that acts for self–benefit will not consider the completeness of the total target. As a result, the reduction target within the urban model is never achieved even with the implementation of CETS.

Combining policy instruments for sustainable energy systems: An assessment with the GMM model

An assessment of the impact of an illustrative portfolio of policy instruments that address different sustainability concerns in the global energy system in areas of climate change, air pollution and introduction of renewable-energy resources is conducted. The effects of a policy set containing three instruments, implemented either individually or in combination, were examined. The policy instruments under examination in this work include: Cap-and-Trade policies imposing a CO2 emission reduction target on the global energy system, a renewable portfolio standard that forces a minimum share of renewable electricity generation, and the internalisation of external costs of power generation associated with local pollution. Implementation of these policy instruments significantly changes the structure and environmental performance of the energy sector, and particularly the structure of the electric-generation sector. The positive effects are amplified when the policy instruments are simultaneously applied, illustrating the potential for synergies between these energy-policy domains. The analysis has been conducted with the multi-regional, energy-system Global MARKAL Model (GMM), a “bottom-up” partial-equilibrium model that provides a detailed representation of energy technologies and endogenizes technology learning.

Opportunities for integration of biofuel gasifiers in natural-gas combined heat-and-power plants in district-heating systems

As political pressure to improve efficiency and reduce CO 2-emissions increases, natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) combined heat-and-power (CHP) technology is an increasingly attractive option for district-heating systems. However, as CO 2-emissions reduction targets become more ambitious, it is expected that there will be pressure to reduce CO 2-emissions from such units well before they reach the end of their useful lifetime. One way to achieve this goal is to integrate a biofuel gasification unit at the plant site. After clean-up, the produced syngas can be co-fired in the CHP unit. This paper discusses the economic performance of this type of retrofit, with specific emphasis on the impact of the following parameters: (i) the original NGCC CHP plant’s power-to-heat ratio; (ii) the size of the district-heating system’s annual heat-energy demand; (iii) the fuel mix in the district-heating system; and (iv) the availability of low-cost waste-heat that can be delivered to the district-heating system. The economic performance of the retrofitted CHP unit is measured as the overall cost of electricity production (COE). COE is analysed for four different energy-market parameter sets (referred to as Scenarios), including fuel prices, costs associated with energy and climate change policy instruments, and market electricity prices. The results indicate that even relatively high costs associated with CO 2 emissions are insufficient to motivate retrofitting an NGCC CHP unit with an integrated biofuel-gasification unit. To promote this type of retrofit, an additional premium value for electricity generated from renewable fuel sources is required (such as the Swedish REC renewable energy certificate system). An unexpected result of this study is that the required value of REC is essentially independent of the energy market scenario considered.

Soil organic carbon stocks and flows in New Zealand: System development, measurement and modelling

An IPCC-based Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) was developed to monitor soil organic C stocks and flows to assist New Zealand to achieve its CO2 emissions reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol. Geo-referenced soil C data from 1158 sites (0.3 m depth) were used to assign steady-state soil C stocks to various combinations of soil class, climate, and land use. Overall, CMS soil C stock estimates are consistent with detailed, stratified soil C measurements at specific sites and over larger regions. Soil C changes accompanying land-use changes were quantified using a national set of land-use effects (LUEs). These were derived using a General Linear Model to include the effects of numeric predictors (e.g., slope angle). Major uncertainties a rise from estimates of changes in the areas involved, the assumption that soil C is at steady state for all land-cover types, and lack of soil C data for some LUEs. Total national soil organic C stocks estimated using the LUEs for 0–0.1, 0.1–0.3, and 0.3–1 m depths were 1300 ± 20, 1590 ± 30, and 1750 ± 70 Tg, respectively. Most soil C is stored in grazing lands (1480 ± 60 Tg to 0.3 m depth), which appear to be at or near steady state; their conversion to exotic forests and shrubland contributed most to the predicted national soil C loss of 0.6 ± 0.2 Tg C yr-1 during 1990–2000. Predicted and measured soil C changes for the grazing-forestry conversion agreed closely. Other uncertainties in our current soil CMS include: spatially integrated annual changes in soil C for the major land-use changes, lack of soil C change estimates below 0.3 m, C losses from erosion, the contribution of agricultural management of organic soils, and a possible interaction between land use and our soil-climate classification. Our approach could be adapted for use by other countries with land-use-change issues that differ from those in the IPCC default methodology. Key words: Soil organic carbon, land-use change, stocks, flows, measurement, modelling, IPCC

Editorial

From the papers in this special issue it can be concluded that an environmentally sustainable transport system is attainable with a broad-based and concerted commitment. Environmentally sustainable transport will result in significant changes in the type of passenger and freight transport provided, but this does not lead to economic collapse. Important challenges lie in the acceptability of the goals, targets, and strategies and their component instruments. The realisation of the 80% CO2-emission reduction target for the transport sector can be concluded to be the most ambitious one. If the CO2 emission reduction target for the transport sector is assumed to be lower, or the time period for implementing EST longer, the contribution of technological changes to attaining EST is likely to increase, thus decreasing societal impacts and increasing public support. Moreover, recent model studies indicate that global greenhouse gases can - in accordance with the EU climate objective - be effectively reduced by 20%, compared to current levels, by 2040 (i.e. a 50% decrease compared 2040 to baseline projections) through global cap-and-trade emission trading systems and carbon taxation (on average about 100 euro per tonne of CO2) (Bollen et al., 2004). These taxation levels do not strongly affect the transport sector, as other sectors may provide CO2 emission reductions at far lower costs (Van Rompuy et al, 2003). However, it is difficult to imagine that significant reductions in climate change emissions in the post Kyoto era are attained without efforts to reduce emissions in the transport sector. The EST studies for Germany, the CEI countries and also Sweden show that encouraging environmental, societal and economic impacts can be achieved with an extension of the time period (50% emission reduction by 2030) to allow transition towards EST.

Power sector development in India with CO2 emission targets: Effects of regional grid integration and the role of clean technologies

The power sector in India at present comprises of five separate regional electricity grids having practically no integrated operation in between them. This study analyses the utility planning, environmental and economical effects of integrated power sector development at the national level in which the regional electric grids are developed and operated as one integrated system. It also examines the effects of selected CO2 emission reduction targets in the power sector and the role of renewable power generation technologies in India. The study shows that the integrated development and operation of the power system at the national level would reduce the total cost including fuel cost by 4912 million $, total capacity addition by 2784 MW, while the emission of CO2, SO2 and NOx would be reduced by 231.6 (1.9%), 0.8 (0.9%), 0.4 (1.2%) million tons, respectively, during the planning horizon. Furthermore, the study shows that the expected unserved energy, one of the indices of generation system reliability, would decrease to 26 GWh under integrated national power system from 5158 GWh. As different levels of CO2 emission reduction targets were imposed, there is a switching of generation from conventional coal plants to gas fired plants, clean coal technologies and nuclear based plants. As a result the capacity expansion cost has increased. It was found that wind power plant is most attractive and economical in the Indian perspective among the renewable options considered (Solar, wind and biomass). Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

International cooperation to support climate change mitigation and sustainable development

This paper analyses the flexible instruments Joint Implementation (JI) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) with regard to achieving CO2 emission reduction targets in a sustainable way. In a first step, an optimising energy and material flow model is used to elaborate emission reduction strategies for Germany. The same methodology is then applied to Indonesia in order to determine the emission baseline for this country, which is an indispensable requirement for the evaluation of project-based flexible instruments. Then, models for Germany, Russia and Indonesia are linked using a decomposition algorithm with the aim to elaborate emission reduction strategies for Germany, including JI and CDM projects. The results show substantial potential to limit emission reduction costs by multilateral cooperation. The most favourable types of cooperation project for the considered countries are CO2 sequestration and power plant projects. Finally, an approach to how to include the criterion of sustainable development is described.

Global Climate Change: Canadian Policy and the Role of Terrestrial Ecosystems

This paper provides an overview of Canadian climate change policy. It is argued that voluntary action will contribute little to climate change mitigation and that forest management strategies can, at most, contribute some 7.5 percent of Canada’s required Kyoto CO2-emissions reduction target. To do so requires tree-planting subsidies, which are inefficient locally and globally. In the arena of land-use change and forest strategies, Kyoto’s Clean Development Mechanism offers a more efficient alternative to domestic strategies

Auditing energy use in cities

`Energy auditing’ as a technique for obtaining a ‘snapshot’ of the energy flows in a city or urban conurbation is discussed in the context of meeting national and international targets for CO2 emissions abatement. An audit methodology is presented which addresses the key questions: Who needs to be involved in the audit? How should the city or conurbation be divided? What data are required? How might these data be obtained and then analysed? Which are the areas of significant consumption? A basis for setting local targets for reducing future energy consumption and CO2 emissions is presented. The scope for auditing major cities and conurbations in the United Kingdom is identified with reference to implementing Local Agenda 21 and satisfying CO2 emissions reduction targets.

Economics of afforestation for carbon sequestration in western Canada

The Kyoto Accord on climate change requires developed countries to achieve CO2-emissions reduction targets, but permits them to charge uptake of carbon (C) in terrestrial (primarily forest) ecosystems against emissions. Countries such as Canada hope to employ massive afforestation programs to achieve Kyoto targets. One reason is that foresters have identified large areas that can be afforested. In this paper, we examine this forestry option, focusing on the economics of afforestation in western Canada. In particular, we develop marginal C uptake curves and show that much less land is available for afforestation than would be the case if economics is ignored. We conclude that, while afforestation is a feasible weapon in the greenhouse policy arsenal, it might not be as effective on an economic basis as many forest-sector analysts make out. Key words: Climate change, economics of afforestation, Kyoto Accord

ＮＩＣＥモデルを用いた我が国のＣＯ２排出対策オプションの相対比較

Global warming has been recognized as a problem requiring urgent attention. COP3, held in Kyoto in December 1997, decided that within the specified time frame of 2008 to 2102, developed countries must undertake legally binding control and reduce greenhouse gas emissions with numerical targets. For Japan, the CO2 emission reduction target is - 6% from the 1990 level. To clear the target, several countermeasures have been thought and their effectiveness must be measured quantitatively. We compared the effect of the CO2mitigation options relatively by using NIRE CO2 Emission model (NICE). NICE is a domestic energy model, which can evaluate the various scenarios about energy demand and supply. We estimated future CO2 emission of Japan in a short term until the year 2010 and in a long term until the year 2050. As for 2050-year long term, the industrial division countermeasure or the power generation division countermeasure was effective and the considerable amount of CO2emission reduction was possible. On the other hand in short term until the year 2010, it was impossible to achieve the CO2 emission reduction target committed by COP3, even though countermeasures in the industry including the power generation were applied.

Joint implementation of CO<SUB align=right>2 emission reduction measures between Switzerland and Colombia

This study offers insights about the identification of joint implementation (JI) projects to curb carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Colombia, which Switzerland could finance to comply with emission reduction commitments. The method uses MARKAL, a bottom-up engineering model of the energy system. Based on the Colombian MARKAL model, this study determines first a baseline CO2 emission path in Colombia. Using a Swiss-Colombian joint MARKAL model, this study then considers a cooperation between Switzerland and Colombia to curb jointly CO2 emissions. The joint model minimises the total energy and emission control cost of the two countries to reach global CO2 emission reduction targets. It enables JI projects in the Colombian energy system to be identified, and illustrates the benefits to be gained through international cooperation to reduce CO2 emissions.

Transformation of electromagnetic and ultrasonic waves in piezoelectric crystals: Ganapol 'Skil, E.M. Soviet Physics-Solid State, Vol 10, No 4 (october 1968) pp 777–784 (Translated from Fizika Tverdogo Tela Vol 10, No 4 (April 1968) pp 982–992)

Global warming and climate change concerns have triggered global efforts to reduce the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is considered a crucial strategy for meeting CO2 emission reduction targets. In this paper, various aspects of CCS are reviewed and discussed including the state of the art technologies for CO2 capture, separation, transport, storage, leakage, monitoring, and life cycle analysis. The selection of specific CO2 capture technology heavily depends on the type of CO2 generating plant and fuel used. Among those CO2 separation processes, absorption is the most mature and commonly adopted due to its higher efficiency and lower cost. Pipeline is considered to be the most viable solution for large volume of CO2 transport. Among those geological formations for CO2 storage, enhanced oil recovery is mature and has been practiced for many years but its economical viability for anthropogenic sources needs to be demonstrated. There are growing interests in CO2 storage in saline aquifers due to their enormous potential storage capacity and several projects are in the pipeline for demonstration of its viability. There are multiple hurdles to CCS deployment including the absence of a clear business case for CCS investment and the absence of robust economic incentives to support the additional high capital and operating costs of the whole CCS process.

On the ratio of expansion at maximum efficiency

As political pressure to improve efficiency and reduce CO2-emissions increases, natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) combined heat-and-power (CHP) technology is an increasingly attractive option for district-heating systems. However, as CO2-emissions reduction targets become more ambitious, it is expected that there will be pressure to reduce CO2-emissions from such units well before they reach the end of their useful lifetime. One way to achieve this goal is to integrate a biofuel gasification unit at the plant site. After clean-up, the produced syngas can be co-fired in the CHP unit. This paper discusses the economic performance of this type of retrofit, with specific emphasis on the impact of the following parameters: (i) the original NGCC CHP plant’s power-to-heat ratio; (ii) the size of the district-heating system’s annual heat-energy demand; (iii) the fuel mix in the district-heating system; and (iv) the availability of low-cost waste-heat that can be delivered to the district-heating system. The economic performance of the retrofitted CHP unit is measured as the overall cost of electricity production (COE). COE is analysed for four different energy-market parameter sets (referred to as Scenarios), including fuel prices, costs associated with energy and climate change policy instruments, and market electricity prices. The results indicate that even relatively high costs associated with CO2 emissions are insufficient to motivate retrofitting an NGCC CHP unit with an integrated biofuel-gasification unit. To promote this type of retrofit, an additional premium value for electricity generated from renewable fuel sources is required (such as the Swedish REC renewable energy certificate system). An unexpected result of this study is that the required value of REC is essentially independent of the energy market scenario considered.