Close Elections Research Articles

The partisanship of mayors has no detectable effect on police spending, police employment, crime, or arrests.

In this paper, we examine whether mayors' partisan affiliations lead to differences in crime and policing. We use a large new dataset on mayoral elections and three different modern causal inference research designs (a regression discontinuity design centered around close elections and two robust difference-in-differences methods) to determine the causal effect of mayoral partisanship on crime, arrests, and racial differences in arrest patterns in medium and large US cities. We find no evidence that mayoral partisanship affects police employment or expenditures, police force or leadership demographics, overall crime rates, or numbers of arrests. At the same time, we find some suggestive evidence that mayoral partisanship may modestly affect the racial composition of arrests. Overall, the results from our multimethod analyses indicate that local partisan politics has little causal impact on crime and policing.

Organized Voters: Elections and Public Funding of Nonprofits

What makes politicians respond to civil society organizations' demands? I use new data on government transfers to French associations and exploit close elections to show that politicians grant more funds to ideologically close organizations when the local incumbent is a political ally and was elected by a small margin. The results are consistent with politicians and organizations exchanging financial support for electoral support. Organizations secure funding because of the votes they can deliver, not because of their campaign contributions; however, the fact that transfers appear to be conditioned on support may undermine their ability to help hold politicians accountable. (JEL D23, D72, H81, L31)

Do educated politicians facilitate better public health? Evidence from India.

Political representatives and their directives are discredited when there is an instance of rising mortality. However, there is limited empirical evidence linking public health outcomes to the quality of politicians. We investigate whether electing political leaders with higher levels of formal education affects child survival. Using an instrumental variable strategy exploiting quasi-experimental outcomes of close elections, we find that college-graduate politicians lead to better child health outcomes, i.e., a reduction in neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality in the regions they are elected from. We explore the potential channels of graduate leaders' impact, drawing from early life and health infrastructure investments. We also find heterogeneous impacts of graduate leaders on child mortality across states with varying levels of institutional quality and based on the leaders' political affiliation.

Populism and ideological convergence: Evidence from a multiparty system

Populist parties have gained significant power in European politics in the last decades, raising concerns about the potentially contagious effect of populism. I study how populist party representation in local councils affects other parties’ ideological positions. I use variation created by close elections to identify ideological shifts resulting from a change in party representation, holding voter preferences constant. I use candidate-level data from a voting advice application to estimate ideological positions, modeling candidates’ responses using item response theory to obtain measures of ideology that are comparable across election years. The results show that increased populist representation causes the ideological spectrum among other parties’ candidates in the municipality to become more concentrated. One additional seat for the populist party reduces the interquartile range of candidate positions by 9 %. While there is initial ideological convergence between mainstream and populist parties, it does not persist as the populist party continues to gain more seats. These effects take place only on the liberal-conservative dimension, while positions on the economic dimension are unaffected. The results demonstrate that increased populist representation influences other parties and causes ideological convergence within the candidate base.

MAGA Trumps the Incumbency Advantage in a Dueling Incumbent Primary

Redistricting is the causal agent responsible for two incumbents facing off in U.S. House elections and hence, despite the rarity of these matchups, they occur periodically due to district boundary changes. In this article, we examine who wins a recent and highly competitive incumbent duel: the 2024 GOP primary in Alabama’s congressional district (CD) 1. Our assessment of this race marks the first academic study to marshal large-N survey data for the purpose of gauging voter preferences in a dueling incumbent primary. This approach gives us a clearer understanding of what accounts for the outcome of a highly contentious and extremely close election. Our findings suggest the incumbency advantage was overridden by voter alignment with the MAGA wing of the Republican Party, which produced a narrow victory for the more MAGA/Trump-positioned candidate in this race.

The influence of politicians' sex on political budget cycles: An empirical analysis of Spanish municipalities

AbstractDoes a politician's sex influence political budget cycles (PBCs)? We answer this question using a sample of Spanish municipalities from the Madrid region for the period 2010–2019. The Madrid region has a homogenous set of budget rules that allow consistent categorization of budget expenditure items as either “mandatory” or “non‐mandatory” public services. After differentiating between smaller and larger municipalities, gender influence is studied along two dimensions: the mayor's sex and the share of women in government. Our findings include, in regard to mandatory spending in smaller municipalities, that gender‐balanced governments induce PBCs. In larger municipalities, when the share of women in government is above 60%, electoral spending is increased by up to 10% of an average municipal budget for mandatory spending, and up to 2.2% for non‐mandatory. These findings are generally supported in a mixed‐gender close election analysis.

Do green parties affect local waste management policies?

We explore whether mayors supported by pro-environmental parties enhance local environmental outcomes compared to their non-environmental counterparts. We study close elections within a regression discontinuity design and find a notable rise in recycling rates in Italian municipalities governed by pro-environmental coalitions. This uptick becomes far less pronounced when adopting broader criteria to define green mayoral candidates. Crucially, the enhanced recycling rates are not realized through augmented budgets for environmental initiatives or waste collection, but rather are primarily attributed to the implementation of local policies, such as on-call waste collection and the establishment of waste collection centers.

Voted in, standing out: Public response to immigrants' political accession

AbstractHow do dominant‐group natives react to immigrants' political integration? We argue that ethnic minority immigrants winning political office makes natives feel threatened, triggering animosity. We test this dynamic across the 2010–2019 UK general elections, using hate crime police records, public opinion data, and text data from over 500,000 regional and local newspaper articles. While past work has not established a causal relationship between minorities' political power gains and dominant‐group animosity, we identify natives' hostile reactions with a regression discontinuity design that leverages close election results between immigrant‐origin ethnic minority and dominant‐group candidates. We find that minority victories increase hate crimes by 67%, exclusionary attitudes by 66%, and negative media coverage of immigrant groups by 110%. Consistent with power threat and social identity theories, these findings demonstrate a strong and widespread negative reaction—encompassing a violence‐prone fringe and the mass public—against ethnic minority immigrants' integration into majority settings.

Using movers to identify close election effects

AbstractMany theories of political participation imply that close elections increase voter turnout, but empirical support for this is mixed. One challenge is that close elections occur in unrepresentative places, making it difficult to extend counterfactual inferences across the wider electorate. In this note, I study closeness in an alternative way by leveraging those who move home between elections. With a large‐scale longitudinal survey in Great Britain, comparing individuals who move between safe and competitive parliamentary constituencies, I provide evidence that closeness increases campaign contact but generally fails to affect turnout. British movers are politically comparable to the wider electorate, so the results can be cautiously generalised. This contributes to substantive literature on voter and party‐led theories of participation, while adopting an empirical strategy seldom used in the study of political behaviour.

The political economy of education: Politician criminality and higher education institutions

This paper establishes the links between politician criminality and higher education provision by studying the causal impact of electing leaders with accusations of serious crimes on the opening of new publicly funded colleges in India. Using a regression discontinuity design with close elections between candidates accused of serious crimes and candidates not accused of serious crimes, I show that constituencies represented by state legislature members accused of serious crimes are less likely to witness openings of new state government funded colleges. Further, this effect is not compensated by openings of new private colleges. This negative impact is higher for constituencies with representatives aligned with the party governing at the state level, confirming the notion that access to power is essential for the ability to influence provision of higher education institutes. Finally, this study provides suggestive evidence that such lower provision of state government colleges is most likely to impact the lowest income groups in society.

RAZOR‐THIN MASS ELECTIONS WITH HIGH TURNOUT

AbstractWe argue that traditional voting models fail to fully explain the frequency of very close mass elections with high turnout. Instead, we model elections as a competition between incentive schemes to mobilize voters. We elucidate conditions under which parties might prefer close elections, as the potential to be pivotal motivates voters instead of exclusively costly incentives as in nonclose elections. We show that, under those conditions, better voter targeting results in tighter races and increased turnout. Furthermore, the smaller party often has a strong incentive to commit to strategies that ensure a close election.

Political alignment and organized violence: Evidence from Nigeria

Does the alignment of local politicians with the ruling party affect organized violence? Applying a regression discontinuity design to closely contested constituencies in the 2011 Nigerian House of Representatives election, we show that the number of violent events, resulting deaths, and the incidence of displacement are lower in areas where the ruling-party candidates win a close election. We show that the effect of political alignment on violence is driven by violence initiated by extremist groups against civilians and conflicts involving the government and extremist groups, suggesting extremist groups react differently to the election of aligned and non-aligned local politicians. We posit several hypotheses and empirically test those to explain the potential mechanisms.

Racial and Ethnic Representation in Local Government

Does the presence of underrepresented racial/ethnic groups in a legislative body differentially impact outcomes for members of those groups? We study close elections between White and non-White candidates for California city council and the corresponding impact on housing values, a summary statistic for neighborhood investment. We find electing non-White rather than White candidates generates differential home value gains in majority non-White neighborhoods. This result, which is not explained by correlations between candidate race and political affiliation or neighborhood racial composition and income, suggests that increased representation can reduce racial disparities. Our results strengthen with increased city-level segregation and council member pivotality. (JEL D72, J15, R23)

Pro-sociality of local democratic leaders: The impact and dynamics of being elected

Democratic regimes need leaders with high intrinsic motivation to serve their constituents. In this paper, we investigate the levels of leaders’ pro-social motivation, how such levels differ from those of villagers, whether they are affected when the leaders are elected, and the persistence over several years. A regression discontinuity design based on close elections combined with a panel of incentivized lab-in-the-field measures of solidarity reveals that being elected and holding office as a local leader results in making more pro-social choices two and six years after the election. An additional experiment measuring normative expectations towards leaders suggests that leaders' higher pro-sociality may come from internalizing these expectations. We also discuss the role of income, collective action and network ties and how the increase in pro-sociality relates to local level corruption.

Do Political Leaders Impact Economic Freedom at the Local Level? Evidence from Close Elections

This paper examines whether state and local political leaders’ partisan affiliations affect economic freedom at the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level. Because political leaders’ partisan affiliations likely correlate with unobserved state- and local-level characteristics that also affect the economic freedom levels of MSAs, we use a regression discontinuity design that leverages close elections as natural experiments to identify a causal effect. Using Stansel (2019)’s index, which aggregates a bundle of policies into a single measure of economic freedom, we find that close Republican majorities in the lower State House increase overall MSA-level economic freedom. This effect is realized through consistent governments (i.e., Republican governor and Republican State House majority) and primarily through changes in labor market policy. At the city level, Republican mayors also increase overall MSA-level economic freedom levels.

The Risk of Narrow, Disputable Results in the U.S. Electoral College

Abstract Close elections are important for many reasons, including that consequent election disputes can weaken democratic legitimacy and risk political violence. We quantify the probability of close outcomes in US presidential races with novel applications of empirical election models from several sources. We show that razor-thin margins are very likely under the Electoral College (EC). And we establish that the EC causes this closeness: It would not occur under any plausibly comparable popular vote system. The tendency of the EC to generate close elections is found today and throughout US presidential voting history.

Patterns of Competitiveness in Russian Gubernatorial Elections

AbstractCompetitiveness in electoral authoritarian regimes is compromised by management of the electoral arena through various kinds of manipulation. This study links two dimensions of competitiveness, namely fairness and contestation. We analyze the regional heterogeneity of both dimensions for Russian gubernatorial elections held between 2012 and 2019. To assess competitiveness, we use crowd-sourced electoral observation reports and data from the Central Election Commission. Our analysis reveals significant regional variation in both dimensions. Nevertheless, opposition victories are rare and only occur in exceptional cases. Low levels of electoral malpractices seem to be a necessary but not sufficient condition for close election results. Windows of opportunity for the opposition arise only if the regime misperceives the closeness of the race and if the opposition nominates prominent candidates. Overall, these findings shed light on the complex factors influencing the competitiveness of elections in electoral authoritarian regimes like Russia.

On the robustness of democratic electoral processes to computational propaganda

There is growing evidence of systematic attempts to influence democratic elections by controlled and digitally organized dissemination of fake news. This raises the question of the intrinsic robustness of democratic electoral processes against external influences. Particularly interesting is to identify the social characteristics of a voter population that renders it more resilient against opinion manipulation. Equally important is to determine which of the existing democratic electoral systems is more robust to external influences. Here we construct a mathematical electoral model to address these two questions. We find that, not unexpectedly, biased electorates with clear-cut elections are overall quite resilient against opinion manipulations, because inverting the election outcome requires to change the opinion of many voters. More interesting are unbiased or weakly biased electorates with close elections. We find that such populations are more resilient against opinion manipulations (i) if they are less polarized and (ii) when voters interact more with each other, regardless of their opinion differences, and that (iii) electoral systems based on proportional representation are generally the most robust. Our model qualitatively captures the volatility of the US House of Representatives elections. We take this as a solid validation of our approach.

Does national leaders’ work experience matter for economic growth?

I examine the effects of national leaders’ work experience on economic growth. Exploiting a cross-country panel data set that covers 135 countries and 60 years (1950–2010), I find that leaders’ richness of experience in public sectors (REPS) has significant and positive impacts on economic growth. I employ random leadership transitions and a regression discontinuity approach based on close elections to establish causality. I also rule out the case that better growth trajectories lead to the selection of more experienced leaders. REPS also improves various economic and political outcomes. Leaders’ work experience in private sectors does not have discernible effects on economic growth.

Leader age and international conflict: A regression discontinuity analysis

Does leader age matter for the likelihood of interstate conflict? Many studies in biology, psychology, and physiology have found that aggression tends to decline with age throughout the adult lifespan, particularly in males. Moreover, a number of major international conflicts have been attributed to young leaders, including the conquests of Alexander the Great and the ambitious military campaigns of Napoleon. However, the exact nature of the relationship between leader age and international conflict has been difficult to study because of the endogeneity problem. Leaders do not come to power randomly. Rather, many domestic and international factors influence who becomes the leader of a country, and some of these factors could correlate with the chances of interstate conflict. For instance, wary democratic publics might favor older leaders when future international conflict seems likely, inducing a relationship between older leaders and interstate conflict. This article overcomes such confounding by using a regression discontinuity design. Specifically, it looks at close elections of national leaders who had large differences in age. It finds that when older candidates barely defeated younger ones, countries were much less likely to engage in military conflict. Its sample is also fairly representative of democracies more broadly, meaning that the findings likely hold true for cases outside the sample. The results demonstrate the important role that individuals play in shaping world politics. They also illustrate the value of design-based inference for learning about important questions in the study of international relations and peace science.