Climatic Zones Research Articles

Impacts of urban block form on carbon and pollutant emissions from urban life in China from the perspective of regional differences

Air pollution emissions (PE) and carbon emissions (CE) pose significant challenges to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) globally. The intensity of urban block development and spatial form can influence the relationship between PE and CE. This study analyzed 11,228 neighborhood samples from various climate zones across China using spatial statistics and an optimized random forest model to examine the impact of block spatial form on PE and CE. The findings reveal that: (1) The PE–CE correlation in non-first-tier city blocks in southern China is stronger than in those in northern China. The correlation is strongest in urban neighborhoods located in temperate climates. Additionally, the PE–CE correlation is weakest in Beijing and Shanghai. (2) The variation in explanatory power of different driving factors is more pronounced for CE than for PE, with PR, NDVI, and AH emerging as the most significant factors. (3) The synergy between PE and CE is strongest when BD is in the 20 %-30 % range. Similarly, the synergy is strongest when PR is in the 2–3 range. (4) BD in the 40 %-60 % range is most effective in reducing PE and CE, with 40 %-50 % range favoring CE reduction and 50 %-60 % range favoring PE reduction.

Design method of multi-stage air treatment system with circulating air for high efficiency in year-round working conditions

Owing to the large temperature rise/drop during the fresh air treatment process, the multi-stage treatment systems for fresh air have good energy-saving effects. However, the energy-saving potential of multi-stage treatment systems for circulating air and the design of a multi-stage circulating air treatment (MCAT) system that operates efficiently under variable conditions throughout the year remain unclear. Therefore, this study proposed a multi-condition design method to ensure the annual energy-efficient operation of the circulating air system. Firstly, the appropriate number of air treatment stages (NUM) and heat transfer temperature difference between air and water (Δt) for each single condition are determined and an appropriate heat transfer area is obtained. Subsequently, an MCAT system suitable for multiple working conditions throughout the year is designed by searching for the common values of the appropriate heat transfer area per stage. Finally, three types of buildings and six cities located in different climate zones are selected to explore the adaptability of the appropriate Δt. The results show that (1) for each single working condition, the appropriate ranges of NUM and Δt are 1–2 and 2–6 °C respectively, which can keep the system energy consumption at a low level. (2) There is generally a common range for multiple heat transfer areas per stage designed under different working conditions, and an MCAT system designed based on this common range can achieve energy-efficient operation under multiple annual conditions. (3) In an office building in Beijing, compared to the traditional one-stage air treatment system, the maximum and the annual average energy-saving rates of the MACT system designed based on the multi-condition design method are 16.1 % and 6.3 %, respectively.

Thermal energy and thermo-economic analysis of PCM-TES for space heating based on low-temperature waste heat: An experimental and numerical study

Great potential for using low-temperature waste heat for energy savings has been revealed in recent years. In this study, a novel PCM-TES unit integrated into a fresh air system was proposed to effectively utilize low-temperature waste heat to address shortcomings of preheating outdoor air for space heating. An experimental setup was built to investigate the heat storage and release performance of proposed unit. Well-validated CFD simulations further parametrically studied PCM thermal characteristics to HTF’s velocity and temperature changes. Energy and thermo-economic analyses were employed to evaluate unit potentials across three Chinese cities with different climate zones. The results showed that charging process was completed in 142–253 min at water temperatures of 55–60 °C; discharging process efficiency increased by 36.10% as the air velocity increased from 2 to 4 m/s. EPI revealed that, theoretically, the system could handle up to 28.2% of the heating demand. Energy and economic analysis indicated the system’s significant potential in colder climates, with Harbin achieving average energy savings of 7.93% and 13.48% over Qingdao and Chongqing, respectively, and cost savings up to 67.65% and 229.61% compared to those cities. This study is expected to shed light on the utilization of low-temperature waste sources for indoor space heating.

Creating a comprehensive framework for design, construction and management of healthy buildings

While healthy buildings are investigated in academic research, practice, and policy, they often fail to address the needs and gaps due to insufficient knowledge transfer between them. Moreover, there is no general definition of healthy buildings that could act as a reference for different stakeholders of the building sector. Therefore, this paper presents a novel framework for healthy buildings and a definition for compiling existing knowledge and addressing the needs and gaps. The holistic approach of the framework was developed through an extensive literature review and tested with 12 building case studies in the major European climate zones. The framework outlines five different dimensions (improving mental and physical health, designed for human needs, sustainably built and managed, resilient and adaptive, empowering people), including 24 indicators and sub-indicators. The validation of the framework revealed that it is possible to assess different building projects against different indicators under each dimension. However, challenges remain due to issues such as lack of time, cost of data collection, or lack of documentation. The developed framework provides a balanced approach that promotes both individual well-being and broader sustainability goals. It provides necessary guidance to inform practitioners and policy makers as well as other building sector stakeholders to integrate healthy buildings thinking into their project development, assessment, and decision making.

Analyzing Passive Design Retrofits using Pareto Front Optimization to Reduce Operational Carbon in Commercial Laboratory Spaces

Buildings are one of the leading sources of carbon emissions in the world. Most of the carbon emissions are released during the operation phase of the building. It is essential for buildings to provide thermal and visual comfort for the users. In the case of existing buildings, it is necessary to offer retrofit solutions so that the operational carbon emissions can be reduced without compromising on the other essential factors. In this study a Multi-Objective Optimization (MOO) of passive design strategies was conducted for a commercial laboratory in India situated in a moderate climate zone. The design variables considered for the study are wall and roof insulation, glazing material, window-wall ratio (WWR), depth of shading device and the number of shading devices used. The objective functions are: 1. reduced energy use intensity and operational carbon emissions, 2. increased thermal comfort hours and 3. increased daylight autonomy. Rhinoceros and grasshopper software along with Ladybug and Honeybee plug-ins were used for the study which resulted in 1296 iterations. MOO technique namely Pareto front optimization was used to optimize the objective functions. Out of 1296 solutions (excluding base case), 72 solutions were non-dominated. Two methods are described in the study to identify the recommendations for retrofit. The first method describes a Heuristic method of selection using Design Explorer recommending 5 good solutions. In the second method a factor is evolved to identify the 5 best solutions in sequential order. The overall study recommends the use of EPS insulation for the RCC roof, WWR of 20% on all sides, 3 horizontal shading devices of depth 0.75 m for all window openings. When compared with the base case scenario, this solution minimizes the EUI by 3.7%, maximizes average TCH by 106.6% and maximizes average DA by 66.9%. The overall operational carbon emissions are reduced by 7095.6 kgCO2.

Disentangling seasonal and annual precipitation signals in the tropics over the Holocene: Insights from δD, alkanes and GDGTs

Rainfall seasonality in the tropics has a substantial impact on both ecosystems and human livelihoods. Yet, reconstructions of past rainfall variability have so far generally been unable to differentiate between annual and seasonal precipitation changes. Past variations in seasonality are therefore largely unknown. Here, we disentangle hydrogen isotopic (δD) signals from terrestrial leaf waxes and algae in an 8000-year peat core from Sumatra, which reflect annual versus wet season rainfall signals, respectively. We validate these results using lipid biomarkers by reconstructing vegetation dynamics via n-alkane distributions and peatland hydrological conditions using glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), as well as biomass burning using levoglucosan concentrations in the core. Finally, we compare our proxy results to a transient climate model simulation (MPI-ESM1.2) to identify the mechanism for seasonality changes. We find that algal δD indicates stronger Indonesian-Australian Summer Monsoon (IASM) precipitation in the Mid-Holocene, between 8 and 4.2 cal ka BP. A period of alternating flooding, droughts and wildfires is reconstructed between 6 and 4.2 cal ka BP, implicating very strong monsoonal precipitation and drying out and burning during a longer and intensified dry season. We attribute this strong rainfall seasonality in the Mid-Holocene mainly to orbitally forced insolation seasonality and a strengthened IASM, consistent with the modeling results. In terms of annual rainfall, terrestrial plant δD, vegetation composition and GDGTs all indicate wetter conditions peaking between 3 and 4.5 cal ka BP, preceded by drier conditions, followed by drastic and rapid drying in the late Holocene from around 2.8 cal ka BP. Our multiproxy annual precipitation reconstruction thereby indicates the wettest overall conditions approximately 1500–2000 years later than a nearby speleothem δ18O record, which instead follows the seasonally biased algal δD in our record. We, therefore, hypothesize that speleothem reconstructions over the Holocene in parts of the tropics with low but significant seasonality may carry a stronger seasonal component than previously suggested. The data presented here contribute with new insights on how isotopic rainfall proxies in the tropics can be interpreted. Our findings resolve the seasonal versus annual components of Holocene rainfall variability in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool region, highlighting the importance of considering seasonality in rainfall reconstructions.

Experimental study of performance of building heating system based on HPS and equipped with thermal potential recovery system and heat load prediction

The results of experimental studies of the heating system performance of a building located in the area of temperate continental climate with temperatures in the heating period down to −30 °C are discussed. The studied heating system comprises an air–liquid heat pump, a liquid–liquid heat pump with a ground circuit, and an electric boiler for peak demands.The paper presents the results of the influence of the ground thermal potential recovery system on the liquid–liquid heat pump performance. Also the influence of the used method of heat load prediction on the system efficiency and indoor air temperature stability is shown.Implementation of the thermal potential recovery system allows to increase the average value of the transformation coefficient for the liquid–liquid heat pump from 2.7 to 2.9 during three years of operation.Heat load prediction leads to stable indoor air temperature in the range of 22 ± 1 °C. Also it allows to level out the dependence of indoor temperature fluctuations on outdoor air temperature fluctuations.

Seasonal anomaly of particulate matter concentration in an equatorial climate: Evaluating the transboundary impact from neighboring provinces on Padang City, Indonesia.

This study investigated the anomalous seasonal variations in particulate matter (PM) concentrations-specifically PM2.5 and PM10-in Padang City, Indonesia, situated within the Equatorial climate zone. A one-year dataset of half-hourly PM measurements from January to December 2023, collected by the Air Quality Monitoring System (AQMS) managed by the Environmental Agency of West Sumatra (DLH), was utilized. Maps of hotspots and air mass backward trajectories were used to identify possible transboundary emissions affecting Padang City. Despite the region experiencing nearly continuous rainfall, significant elevations in PM levels were observed during the typically drier months of August to October. Specifically, PM2.5 levels peaked at 36.57µg/m3 and PM10 at 39.58µg/m3 in October, significantly higher than in other months and indicating a substantial deviation from the typical expectations for equatorial climates. These results suggest that the high PM concentrations are not solely due to local urban emissions or normal seasonal variations but are also significantly influenced by transboundary smoke from peatland fires and agricultural burning in neighboring provinces such as Bengkulu, Riau, Jambi, and South Sumatra. Backward trajectory analysis further confirmed the substantial impact of regional activities on degradation of air quality in Padang City. The study underscores the need for integrated air quality management that includes both local and transboundary pollution sources. Enhanced monitoring, public engagement, and inter-regional collaboration are emphasized as crucial strategies for mitigating the adverse effects of PM pollution in equatorial regions like Padang City.

A simulation analysis on the internal and external application of new silica-aerogel-based (Quartzene) coatings effects on energy use in a typical building in two different climates

The study investigates the impact of improved synthetic amorphous silica, specifically developed aerogel-based insulating coatings, Quartzene (Qz), on energy efficiency in buildings across cold and warm climate zones. Simulations were conducted on various coatings and thicknesses for exterior and interior wall surfaces, as well as roofs. These were evaluated using a prototype residential building under dynamic thermal conditions. Wall coatings were analyzed, including a base plaster and a mixture with 10%Wt aerogel-based Quartzene. Additionally, three roof coating samples were tested: Qz 12.5%Wt, TiO2 3.3%Wt, and a blend of aerogel-based mixtures and TiO2. Mixtures containing Qz exhibited the lowest thermal conductivity (0.05 W/(m·K)) and high short-wave reflectance (up to 0.93 μm), impacting transmission loads, time lag, and decrement factor. Energy savings of up to 11% were observed in warm climates when implementing the coatings (unaged performance). Overall, the coated surfaces increased time lag and reduced decrement factor compared to uncoated surfaces. Aerogel-based coatings showed enhanced effectiveness in lowering transmission loads.

Parametric and optimization analyses of a dynamic trombe wall incorporating PCM to save heating energy under cold climate zones

The Trombe wall system incorporating a dynamic PCM layer (DTWPS) has been recognized as a viable envelope to reduce the energy demand for heating effectively. However, properly selecting PCMs in the DTWPS is complicated and much less studied. Therefore, parametric and optimization analyses of the PCM thermal properties of a DTWPS are carried out for heating energy saving under cold climate zones using a validated CFD model, multiple linear and nonlinear regression models, and the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The results show nonlinear relationships between the four critical PCM thermal properties and the energy saving, time lag, and thermal comfort. Moreover, the optimal values of the melting point, latent heat, density, and thermal conductivity of the PCM are 26.4 °C, 200 kJ/kg, 2080 kg/m3, and 1.34 W/(m·K), respectively. Meanwhile, the energy saving for the test room equipped with the DTWPS with optimal thermal properties could reach 100 % compared to that for the traditional reference Trombe wall. With available PCMs, heating energy consumption can be saved by up to 90 % or more. Further, the DTWPS demonstrates a reduced PCM mass compared to other passive walls.

Sensitivity of surface water and groundwater contributions to streamflow in a tropical glacierized basin under climate change scenarios

Abstract While mountain water faces threats posed by climate change, particularly in snow-dominated and glacierized systems, the role of groundwater in sustaining streamflow in these systems remains elusive. Changing mountain headwaters, marked by reduced snowpacks, retreating glaciers, shifting precipitation patterns, and rising temperatures, pose a crucial question: what is the resilience of streamflow in these mountains, and what role does groundwater play in this resilience? This is particularly uncertain in tropical high mountains where the seasonality of precipitation and glacier melt govern streamflow generation. A glacio-hydrological model was created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform to investigate cryosphere-surface water-groundwater interactions in the Quilcayhuanca Basin, in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca. The model was forced by in-situ meteorological observations and parameterized using numerous data sources and process-based studies in the basin. Model results show that during the dry season, 37% of streamflow is generated from groundwater discharge, increasing to 56% during the lowest flows. Evapotranspiration is the largest mass flux from the basin at the peak of the dry season. Precipitation, temperature, and glacier change scenarios were used to assess the sensitivity of basin hydrology to climate change and glacier retreat. In a warmer, wetter, and nearly deglaciated future, Quilcayhuanca basin streamflow is expected to decrease by 4-19% annually, with a larger volumetric change in overland and vadose zone flow than in groundwater flow. The range in values is more closely linked to uncertainty in precipitation change than temperature change. Despite a strong reduction in snow and ice contribution to streamflow with warming and deglaciation, the concomitant increase in precipitation can limit the changes in streamflow and groundwater flow, showcasing the resilience of the system to shifts in climate and glacier cover.

Effects of Biochar on Soil Organic Carbon in Relation to Soil Nutrient Contents, Climate Zones and Cropping Systems: A Chinese Meta-Analysis

Effects of Biochar on Soil Organic Carbon in Relation to Soil Nutrient Contents, Climate Zones and Cropping Systems: A Chinese Meta-Analysis

Characterizing Wet Season Precipitation in the Central Amazon Using a Mesoscale Convective System Tracking Algorithm

AbstractTo comprehensively characterize convective precipitation in the central Amazon region, we utilize the Python FLEXible object TRacKeR (PyFLEXTRKR) to track mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) observed through satellite measurements and simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a convection‐permitting resolution. This study spans a 2‐month period during the wet seasons of 2014 and 2015. We observe a strong correlation between the MCS track density and accumulated precipitation in the Amazon basin. Key factors contributing to precipitation, such as MCS properties (number, size, rainfall intensity, and movement), are thoroughly examined. Our analysis reveals that while the overall model produces fewer MCSs with smaller mean sizes compared to observations, it tends to overpredict total precipitation due to excessive rainfall intensity for heavy rainfall events (≥10 mm hr−1). These biases in simulated MCS properties could vary with the constraints on the convective background environment. Moreover, while the wet bias from heavy (convective) rainfall outweighs the dry bias in light (stratiform) rainfall, the latter can be crucial, particularly when MCS cloud cover is significantly underestimated. A case study for 1 April 2014 highlights the influence of environmental conditions on the MCS lifecycle and identifies an unrealistic model representation in both stratiform and convective precipitation features.

Change detection of the Köppen climate zones in Southeastern Europe

AbstractThe study exploits the air temperature and precipitation data from ERA5‐Land reanalysis and E‐OBS gridded observations that are freely available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The objectives of the study are to analyze the distribution of Köppen climate zones and to detect the changes in the presence and coverage of the specific climate types in Southeastern Europe. The results are shown separately for the following reference periods: 1961–1990, 1971–2000, 1981–2010, and 1991–2020. In the period 1961–1990, the most dominant climate type in Southeastern Europe was fully humid temperate climate with warm summer (Cfb), while fully humid continental climate with warm summer (Dfb) was also highly present there, together with fully humid temperate climate with hot summer (Cfa). In the period 1991–2020, the shift of Köppen climate zones appeared in such a way that the area with Dfb continental climate, that is often called snow or cold climate, is significantly reduced and this type is replaced with Cfb temperate climate. At the same time, Cfa climate type with hot summer is spread across wider area, mainly instead of Cfb with warm summer, now reaching almost the same percentage of coverage as Cfb type.

Capturing Urban Heterogeneity Enhances Tropical Cyclones Simulation in Houston

AbstractUrbanization in the coastal region has increased socioeconomic losses from landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Although previous studies have explored the broad impacts of urbanization on TCs, the effect of heterogeneity caused by local intra‐urban variability has not been examined. To address this gap, this study utilized the urban Local Climate Zone (LCZ) to capture the urban landscape heterogeneity and the impacts of this representation on the simulation of the post‐landfall TCs characteristics in Houston. Taking the case of two recent TCs: Hurricane Harvey (occurred in 2017) and Tropical Storm Imelda (occurred in 2019), the study evaluated the impact of urban heterogeneity on 10‐m winds, 2‐m temperature, land surface temperature, and precipitation across Houston. The consideration of intra‐urban heterogeneity using LCZ can improve the 10‐m winds, 2‐m temperature, and spatial pattern of land surface temperature. Although the cumulative rainfall remained largely similar within the experiments (with and without LCZ), incorporating intra‐urban heterogeneity notably modified the spatial structure of urban rainfall, particularly in simulating heavy rainfall hot spots. These findings are consistent for both TCs and demonstrate the positive impact of incorporating intra‐urban heterogeneity on the landfalling TC simulations over the Houston area.

Triple oxygen isotope variability of precipitation in a tropical mountainous region

We present one year of δD, δ18O, d-excess, and Δʹ17O data from monthly precipitation at a Caribbean coastal site in Panama and from tap waters across the country to constrain geographic, climate, and moisture source controls on isotopic variability and better understand the sources and mechanisms of precipitation in Central America, a region facing significant modifications to the annual rainfall cycle due to climate change. Monthly precipitation δD ranged from –52.2 to +14.3 ‰, δ18O from –7.6 to +0.4 ‰, d-excess from +7.1 to +11.6 ‰, and Δ′17O from +11 to +29 per meg. Rainy season precipitation samples were found to have lower δD, δ18O, and d-excess due to Rayleigh distillation during the condensation and rainout of Pacific moisture over the central cordilleras, which results in decoupling between d-excess and Δ′17O. Outlier Δ′17O values during peak dry and rainy months may reflect seasonal changes in water vapor sourcing, from Caribbean to Pacific and/or locally recycled moisture, or may be a result of organic contamination. Tap water δD ranged from –82.3 to –14.3 ‰, δ18O from –11.6 to –2.4 ‰, d-excess from +4.3 to +12.2 ‰ and Δ′17O from –2 to +84 per meg. Tap water δD and δ18O values increase eastward due to lower orographic effects and Pacific and locally recycled moisture contributions to rainfall and greater secondary evaporation. Tap water d-excess and Δ′17O values are also de-coupled but lack clear spatial trends and controls. The results of this study indicate the promise of adding Δ′17O to the isotopic toolkit in tropical mountainous regions with complicated water cycling dynamics and provide a baseline for future triple oxygen isotope investigations.

Difference of Soil Thickness Depending on Climate Zones and Geological Classification: Based on a Survey of Mountain Slopes in Japan

There is little information which examines and compares climate zones or geology/topography in their relation to soil thickness along mountain slopes, where soil thickness is a possible contributing factor for the increase of sediment wash-off. In this study, the data obtained from handy penetration tests conducted throughout Japan are collected and attached to information on climate zones and geography/topography with the aim of clarifying the difference in soil thickness according to the climate zone and geological classification. The probability distribution of soil thickness was found to fit roughly with the probability density function of a log-normal distribution, regardless of the climate zone or geological age / lithology. A comparison of μ showed that the soil thickness at target sites in the Pacific climate zone, which have high rainfall, was large, at approximately 2.1 m. Meanwhile, the soil thickness was low, at approximately 1.5 m, at target sites in the Setouchi climate zone, which has low rainfall. A comparison of the geology showed that soil thicknesses of sites where the geology consisted of Tertiary and Quaternary sedimentary rocks were high, at approximately 2.1 m and 2.3 m, respectively. This suggests that, in high-precipitation regions, the weathering of rocks is promoted so that the soil layers tend to increase in thickness.

The impact of climate change on variations in rutting resilience of asphalt pavement across the climate zones in China

This study aims to investigate resilience differences of asphalt pavements across China's climate zones in response to climate change. The impacts of climate change on rutting depth (RD), influence degree on rutting resilience, and Greenhouse Gas emissions in various climate zones were evaluated, and adaptation measures were proposed. The findings indicate that the warmer climate zones will be significantly affected. Freeways in these zones, serving for 10 years under projected climate conditions 40 years ahead, are expected to have RD increments exceeding 2 mm. Carbon dioxide equivalent emissions could increase by 23.1 million tons (a 39.4% increase) compared to current conditions. The degree of influence of climate change on rutting resilience will significantly differentiate among the climate zones. Four potential adaptation measures have been proposed to urgently enhance rutting resilience in response to climate change.

Machine learning-based climate zoning and asphalt selection for pavement infrastructure under changing climate: A focused study of Ningxia, China

Climate change poses significant challenges to the durability and performance of asphalt pavements. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of climatic factors in Ningxia, China, to establish a robust climate zoning framework for asphalt pavements. Utilizing machine learning techniques, specifically the Fuzzy C-means (FCM) algorithm, three distinct climate zones within Ningxia were divided considering climatic features such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, maximum temperature difference, cumulative precipitation, and cumulative radiation. Based on the historical climate data and LTPP model, five asphalt PG zones were classified in Ningxia Province. Besides, six climate sub-zones, which integrated the asphalt PG zones into climate zones, provided a more refined strategy for the asphalt selection. The study also projected future climate scenarios using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset to assess the impact of climate change on asphalt selection in Ningxia. The significant changes in pavement temperature indicated the necessity to adapt asphalt pavement designs to future climate scenarios. Overall, this research contributed to the construction of more climate-resilient pavement infrastructures and provided an analysis framework for other regions facing similar climate-induced challenges.

Projecting future excess deaths associated with extreme precipitation events in China under changing climate: an integrated modelling study

Climate-change-induced extreme precipitation events have attracted global attention; however, the associated excess deaths burden has been insufficiently explored and remains unclear. We first defined an extreme precipitation event for each county when the daily total precipitation exceeded the county-specific 99·5th percentile of the daily precipitation from 1986 to 2005; then we estimated the associations between extreme precipitation events and cause-specific deaths in 280 Chinese counties using a two-stage time-series model. Second, we projected the excess deaths related to extreme precipitation events by combining the bias-corrected multi-model precipitation predictions derived under different combined emission-population scenarios of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP2·6, RCP4·5, and RCP8·5) and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2, a business-as-usual scenario) populations (S1, low fertility rate; S2, medium fertility rate; and S3, high fertility rate). We quantified the climate and population contributions to the changes of future excess deaths nationwide and by climatic zones. Compared with the non-extreme precipitation days, the percentage increase of deaths associated with exposure to extreme precipitation days is 13·0% (95% CI 7·0-19·3) for accidental cause, 4·3% (2·0-6·6) for circulatory disease, and 6·8% (2·8-10·9) for respiratory disease. The number of annual average excess deaths related to extreme precipitation events during 1986-2005 was 2644 (95% CI 1496-3730) for accidental cause, 69 (33-105) for circulatory disease, and 181 (79-279) for respiratory disease. In the 2030s, the total number of excess deaths of these three causes will increase by 1244 (43%), 1756 (61%), and 2008 (69%) under RCP2·6, RCP4·5, and RCP8·5 scenarios combined with a medium-fertility-rate population (SSP2-S2), respectively, but will decrease by 3% under RCP2·6-SSP2-S2 and increase by 25% under RCP8·5-SSP2-S2 in the 2090s. Humid and water-limited regions in subtropical, middle-temperate, and plateau climate zones will face highly increased risks. Climate and population factors contributed disproportionally among the five climate zones. This study is the largest integrated projection exploring the disease burden associated with extreme precipitation events. The excess deaths will be amplified by climate and population changes. Improving mitigation and adaptation capacities is crucial when responding to precipitation extremes. National Natural Science Foundation of China and Wellcome Trust.