Climate Forcing Research Articles

Global observations of aerosol indirect effects from marine liquid clouds

Abstract. Interactions between aerosols and liquid clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate. One widely shared goal to reduce this uncertainty is to decompose radiative anomalies arising from aerosol–cloud interactions into components associated with changes in cloud-droplet number concentration (Twomey effect), liquid-water-path adjustments, and cloud-fraction adjustments. However, there has not been a quantitative foundation for simultaneously estimating these components with global satellite observations. Here we present a method for assessing shortwave radiative flux anomalies from the Twomey effect and cloud adjustments over ocean between 55∘ S and 55∘ N. We find that larger aerosol concentrations are associated with widespread cloud brightening from the Twomey effect, a positive radiative adjustment from decreasing liquid water path in subtropical stratocumulus regions, and a negative radiative adjustment from increasing cloud fraction in the subtropics and midlatitudes. The Twomey effect and total cloud adjustment have contributed −0.77 ± 0.25 and −1.02 ± 0.43 W m−2, respectively, to the effective radiative forcing since 1850 over the domain (95 % confidence). Our findings reduce uncertainty in these components of aerosol forcing and suggest that cloud adjustments make a larger contribution to the forcing than is commonly believed.

Lateral and vertical characteristics of floodplain aggradation cycles in the lower Eocene Willwood Formation, Bighorn Basin, Wyoming, USA

Sedimentation on river floodplains is a complex process that involves overbank flooding, crevasse splaying, and river avulsion. The resulting floodplain stratigraphy often exhibits floodplain aggradation cycles with alternating fine-grained overbank flooding deposits that underwent significant petrogenesis, and coarser-grained, avulsion-belt deposits largely devoid of pedogenic impact. These cycles are linked to lateral migration and avulsion of channels driven by internal dynamics, external factors, or a combination of both. To better understand the spatial and vertical variability of such floodplain aggradation cycles, we map these in three dimensions using a photogrammetric model of the lower Eocene Willwood Formation in the northern Bighorn Basin, Wyoming, USA. This allows identifying 44 floodplain aggradation cycles in ∼300 m of strata with an average thickness of 6.8 m and a standard deviation of 2.0 m. All the cycles are traceable over the entire model, pointing to their spatial consistency over the 10 km2 study area. At the same time, rapid lateral thickness changes of the floodplain aggradation cycles occur with changes up to 4 m over a lateral distance of 400 m. Variogram analyses of both field and numerical-model results reveal stronger consistency of floodplain aggradation cycle thicknesses along the paleoflow direction compared to perpendicular to paleoflow. Strong compensational stacking occurs at the vertical scale of 2−3 floodplain aggradation cycles (14−20 m), while full compensational stacking occurs at larger scales of more than six floodplain aggradation cycles (>41 m). The lateral and vertical thickness variability of the floodplain aggradation cycles, as well as their compensational stacking behavior, are interpreted to be dominantly driven by autogenic processes such as crevasse splaying and avulsing that preferentially fill topographic lows. External climate forcing may have interacted with these autogenic processes, producing the laterally persistent and vertically repetitive floodplain aggradation cycles. The spatial variability of floodplain aggradation cycles demonstrated in this study highlights again the need for three-dimensional data collection in alluvial floodplain settings rather than depending on one-dimensional records.

Mitigation potential of banned hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) towards global warming – An assessment of Kigali Amendment in the Indian scenario

In order to combat the climate change resulting from climate forcing agents such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), Kigali Amendment to Montreal Protocol was proposed in 2016. India gave its nod to Kigali Amendment, where the phase down of HFCs will take place in four steps from 2032 to 2047. In the present study, the emission scenarios for five majorly used HFCs in India, HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a and HFC-227ea, with and without Kigali Amendment are developed. In the absence of Kigali Amendment, the GWP weighted emissions of these HFCs are estimated to increase to 0.16 GtCO2 eq. in 2050 from 0.09 GtCO2 eq in 2020. The Kigali Amendment reduction target for these emissions is estimated to be ∼0.03 GtCO2 eq. in 2050. Except for HFC-134a, the other HFCs have almost zero RF by 2050 in the presence of Kigali Amendment. The atmospheric oxidation potential of HFCs calculated through their reaction with atmospheric OH/Cl radicals reveal that HFC-134a is degraded rapidly in the atmosphere, whereas the oxidation potential of HFC-143a is very low. This leads to a longer lifetime of HFC-143a in the atmosphere. Thus, GWP alone is not a metric in determining the climate forcing properties of HFCs. In addition, the atmospheric oxidation potential, product toxicity and chemical stability should also be included as policy-relevant metrics and the Kigali Amendment should be revisited in including the compounds based on these metrics.

Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate

The intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is expected to increase in response to greenhouse warming. However, how future climate change will affect TC frequencies and tracks is still under debate. Here, to further elucidate the underlying sensitivities and mechanisms, we study TCs response to different past and future climate forcings. Using a high-resolution TC-resolving global Earth system model with 1/4° atmosphere and 1/10° ocean resolution, we conducted a series of paleo-time-slice and future greenhouse warming simulations targeting the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, 125 ka), glacial sub-stage MIS5d (115 ka), present-day (PD), and CO2 doubling (2×CO2) conditions. Our analysis reveals that precessional forcing created an interhemispheric difference in simulated TC densities, whereas future CO2 forcing impacts both hemispheres in the same direction. In both cases, we find that TC genesis frequency, density, and intensity are primarily controlled by changes in tropospheric thermal and moisture structure, exhibiting a clear reduction in TC genesis density in warmer hemispheres.

The alarming state of Central Chile's groundwater resources: A paradigmatic case of a lasting overexploitation

Ensuring water supply under climate change scenarios is a global concern, and groundwater resources play a crucial role. Aquifer depletion is a worldwide trend, and Chile is no exception. Through a statistical approach with strong hydrogeological criteria, the groundwater overexploitation phenomenon is studied in Central Chile, the most populated region in this mountainous country. With this purpose, we assess the evolution of groundwater levels and pumping between 1970 and 2020 by analysing 26,065 groundwater rights and 222 observation wells. Withdrawals increased from 498 hm3 in 1970 to 8883 hm3 in 2020. We recognised two general trends in groundwater levels: a quasi-steady state hydrodynamic regime pre-1988 and sustained decline post-1988, exacerbated since 2010 with the start of the Megadrought. Although groundwater recharge is expected to decrease during this severe drought, the declining trend strongly correlates with pumping but not with precipitation changes. Climate forcing is usually invoked to warrant the dramatic depletion of groundwater resources, but we demonstrated that all analysed aquifers have been overexploited since much earlier than 2010. Finally, the Chilean aquifers' overexploitation is a clear example of the consequences of prioritising the water offer over the water demand regulation, which hinders the United Nations' sustainable development goals accomplishment.

Rapid saturation of cloud water adjustments to shipping emissions

Abstract. Human aerosol emissions change cloud properties by providing additional cloud condensation nuclei. This increases cloud droplet numbers, which in turn affects other cloud properties like liquid-water content and ultimately cloud albedo. These adjustments are poorly constrained, making aerosol effects the most uncertain part of anthropogenic climate forcing. Here we show that cloud droplet number and water content react differently to changing emission amounts in shipping exhausts. We use information about ship positions and modeled emission amounts together with reanalysis winds and satellite retrievals of cloud properties. The analysis reveals that cloud droplet numbers respond linearly to emission amount over a large range (1–10 kg h−1) before the response saturates. Liquid water increases in raining clouds, and the anomalies are constant over the emission ranges observed. There is evidence that this independence of emissions is due to compensating effects under drier and more humid conditions, consistent with suppression of rain by enhanced aerosol. This has implications for our understanding of cloud processes and may improve the way clouds are represented in climate models, in particular by changing parameterizations of liquid-water responses to aerosol.

Recent, widespread nitrate decreases may be linked to persistent dissolved organic carbon increases in headwater streams recovering from past acidic deposition

Long-term monitoring of water quality responses to natural and anthropogenic perturbation of watersheds informs policies for managing natural resources. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrate (NO3−) in streams draining forested landscapes provide valuable information on ecosystem function due to their biogeochemical reactivity and solubility in water. Here we evaluate a 20-year record (2001−2021) of biweekly stream-water samples (n > 3000) and continuous discharge in three forested catchments in the Adirondack region of New York to investigate and interpret long-term trends in DOC and NO3− concentrations. Results from the intensively monitored catchments were compared with data from synoptic surveys of streams throughout the Adirondack region. A weighted regressions on time, discharge, and season (WRTDS) model, used to estimate daily flow-normalized concentrations, determined that DOC increased by ~30 to 50 % while NO3− decreased by ~50 to 70 % over the study period. The large amount of data from catchments with different soil properties permitted us to assess the relative effects of hydrology, season, and land cover factors on temporal trends in DOC and NO3− concentrations. We found weak evidence of climatic forcing of long-term increases in DOC, and instead contend that declining ionic strength in precipitation linked to declining anthropogenic acid deposition is driving DOC trends in stream waters. Nitrate concentrations were more variable but clearly decreased in recent years possibly related to declining N deposition. The recent increase in DOC:NO3− in all catchments indicates a major shift in stream stoichiometry that reflects changes in ecosystem functioning that may have important biogeochemical implications for terrestrial as well as aquatic ecosystems.

Long-term climate change impacts on regional sterodynamic sea level statistics analyzed from the MPI-ESM large ensemble simulation

Statistics of regional sterodynamic sea level variability are analyzed in terms of probability density functions of a 100-member ensemble of monthly mean sea surface height (SSH) timeseries simulated with the low-resolution Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. To analyze the impact of climate change on sea level statistics, fields of SSH variability, skewness and excess kurtosis representing the historical period 1986–2005 are compared with similar fields from projections for the period 2081–2100 under moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) climate forcing conditions. Larger deviations of the models SSH statistics from Gaussian are limited to the western and eastern tropical Pacific. Under future climate warming conditions, SSH variability of the western tropical Pacific appear more Gaussian in agreement with weaker zonal easterly wind stress pulses, suggesting a reduced El Niño Southern Oscillation activity in the western warm pool region. SSH variability changes show a complex amplitude pattern with some regions becoming less variable, e.g., off the eastern coast of the north American continent, while other regions become more variable, notably the Southern Ocean. A west (decrease)-east (increase) contrast in variability changes across the subtropical Atlantic under RCP8.5 forcing is related to changes in the gyre circulation and a declining Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in response to external forcing changes. In addition to global mean sea-level rise of 16 cm for RCP4.5 and 24 cm for RCP8.5, we diagnose regional changes in the tails of the probability density functions, suggesting a potential increased in variability-related extreme sea level events under global warmer conditions.

A framework for time-dependent ice sheet uncertainty quantification, applied to three West Antarctic ice streams

Abstract. Ice sheet models are the main tool to generate forecasts of ice sheet mass loss, a significant contributor to sea level rise; thus, knowing the likelihood of such projections is of critical societal importance. However, to capture the complete range of possible projections of mass loss, ice sheet models need efficient methods to quantify the forecast uncertainty. Uncertainties originate from the model structure, from the climate and ocean forcing used to run the model, and from model calibration. Here we quantify the latter, applying an error propagation framework to a realistic setting in West Antarctica. As in many other ice sheet modelling studies we use a control method to calibrate grid-scale flow parameters (parameters describing the basal drag and ice stiffness) with remotely sensed observations. Yet our framework augments the control method with a Hessian-based Bayesian approach that estimates the posterior covariance of the inverted parameters. This enables us to quantify the impact of the calibration uncertainty on forecasts of sea level rise contribution or volume above flotation (VAF) due to the choice of different regularization strengths (prior strengths), sliding laws, and velocity inputs. We find that by choosing different satellite ice velocity products our model leads to different estimates of VAF after 40 years. We use this difference in model output to quantify the variance that projections of VAF are expected to have after 40 years and identify prior strengths that can reproduce that variability. We demonstrate that if we use prior strengths suggested by L-curve analysis, as is typically done in ice sheet calibration studies, our uncertainty quantification is not able to reproduce that same variability. The regularization suggested by the L curves is too strong, and thus propagating the observational error through to VAF uncertainties under this choice of prior leads to errors that are smaller than those suggested by our two-member “sample” of observed velocity fields.

Assessing the control factors upon glacial valley development in southernmost Patagonia (Fuegian Andes of Argentina)

Research on landscape glacial modelling provides particularly relevant information about the complex connection between climate change and relief evolution. Glacial valleys – the most distinctive landforms in alpine-type settings – were systematically mapped across the Fuegian Andes of Argentina, southernmost Patagonia, and quantitatively investigated in terms of the geoenvironmental agents that controlled their formation. A total of 646 troughs were identified and studied in four sub-areas with contrasting past glacial cover. Our observations demonstrate that longer valleys are also the deeper, less steep (in long profile), more sinuous and lower, and that maximum elevation was the main control of altitudinal range, mean and maximum slope, and minimum depth. Overall, it is considered that valley development was subject to conditioning by pre-glacial topography, geological structure and climatic forcings. Specifically, valley's spatial arrangement indicates that glaciers responsible for their erosion (possibly during the early Pleistocene) adjusted to a fluvial drainage network organized according to a marked structural control, mainly associated with Magallanes-Fagnano and Canal Beagle regional strike-slip systems. The predominance and higher degree of development of southern slope valleys reveal that north-south differential insolation effect was determinant in the Fuegian glaciers' balance during extensive time-lapses in glacial cycles, likely reflecting a scenario of relative aridity and comparatively clear skies. Morning-afternoon contrasts in solar radiation receipt and, specially, humid winds from the west (regional westerlies) would have also produced a moderate eastward bias in valley direction. In the western and central sectors, formerly covered by the Cordillera Darwin Icefield, the surface of Fagnano and Beagle outlet palaeolobes and other major collectors constituted a comparatively high base level for mountain glaciers' incision during full glacial conditions, leading to the creation of profuse, short hanging valleys. In the eastern domain, on the contrary, glaciers appear to have been essentially regulated by the topoclimatic factors, attaining greater dimensions and flowing down to lower altitudes in south- and southeast-facing slopes. Finally, in marginal, lower mountains (away from the main chain axis) ice is thought to have formed only under the most severe glacial episodes in the zone.

All aboard! Earth system investigations with the CH2O-CHOO TRAIN v1.0

Abstract. Models of the carbon cycle and climate on geologic (>104-year) timescales have improved tremendously in the last 50 years due to parallel advances in our understanding of the Earth system and the increase in computing power to simulate its key processes. Still, balancing the Earth system's complexity with a model's computational expense is a primary challenge in model development. Simulations spanning hundreds of thousands of years or more generally require a reduction in the complexity of the climate system, omitting features such as radiative feedbacks, shifts in atmospheric circulation, and the expansion and decay of ice sheets, which can have profound effects on the long-term carbon cycle. Here, we present a model for climate and the long-term carbon cycle that captures many fundamental features of global climate while retaining the computational efficiency needed to simulate millions of years of time. The Carbon–H2O Coupled HydrOlOgical model with Terrestrial Runoff And INsolation, or CH2O-CHOO TRAIN, couples a one-dimensional (latitudinal) moist static energy balance model of climate with a model for rock weathering and the long-term carbon cycle. The CH2O-CHOO TRAIN is capable of running million-year-long simulations in about 30 min on a laptop PC. The key advantages of this framework are (1) it simulates fundamental climate forcings and feedbacks; (2) it accounts for geographic configuration; and (3) it is flexible, equipped to easily add features, change the strength of feedbacks, and prescribe conditions that are often hard-coded or emergent properties of more complex models, such as climate sensitivity and the strength of meridional heat transport. We show how climate variables governing temperature and the water cycle can impact long-term carbon cycling and climate, and we discuss how the magnitude and direction of this impact can depend on boundary conditions like continental geography. This paper outlines the model equations, presents a sensitivity analysis of the climate responses to varied climatic and carbon cycle perturbations, and discusses potential applications and next stops for the CH2O-CHOO TRAIN.

Using ecosystem models to inform ecosystem-based fisheries management in Europe: a review of the policy landscape and related stakeholder needs

The need to implement an ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) is enshrined in numerous regulations and strategies, at both global and European level. In practice, it is challenging to implement EBFM because it requires a complex evaluation of interlinked management effects and environmental and climate forcing on multi-species interactions, habitat status and human activities. Ecosystem models are one of the most critical research tools to inform EBFM, because they can integrate a wide variety of data, examine multiple and complex ecosystem interactions, and can make forecasts based on specific management scenarios. However, despite clear progress in marine ecosystem modelling, many models do not address policy goals and targets, which hinders uptake in policy. In this paper, we review the global and European policies and implementing bodies which directly or indirectly have a repercussion on the implementation of EBFM. Moreover, we highlight specific stakeholder needs related to the implementation of EBFM in European waters, which ecosystem models could help address. We review the policy commitments that drive these needs and the concerns raised by stakeholders during a survey and dedicated workshop. Key topics of concern were effects of climate change; bycatch; protected areas/fisheries restricted areas; and reducing the impacts of trawling. Stakeholders also provided specific questions related to these topics which ecosystem models could help address. Scenario and data results visualizations, as well as specific barriers in using the results of ecosystem models for decision-making are also discussed. A close involvement of stakeholders in scenario development and in designing graphical outputs is important, and can help overcome some of the main barriers that can hinder uptake of models and scenarios, including a lack of understanding of the benefits and limits of ecosystem models; insufficient involvement and interaction with stakeholders; and inadequate characterization of uncertainties.

Projecting Diversity Conflicts of Future Land System Pathways in China Under Anthropogenic and Climate Forcing

AbstractPredicting future land system changes driven by anthropogenic and climactic impacts can help to explore adaptation and mitigation pathways for regional and global sustainable development. Here, we project land cover changes in China from 2030 to 2100 at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km under eight scenarios based on the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenraioMIP), which are extracted from Land Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2). We use a rule‐based method to classify and map 9 land cover dynamic trajectories at patch scale to present land system changes. At the provincial scale we used hierarchical clustering to identify archetypes of land cover change, which can predict ecological risks for future management in western provinces. Our results reveal that anthropogenic mitigation policies under high mitigation pressure do not result in positive impacts on the land system, but rising temperatures will provide a great opportunity for ecological restoration in some regions.

Anthropogenic and Biogenic Sources Drive the Molecular Fingerprints and Atmospheric Processing of Water‐Soluble Organic Aerosols at a Tropical Hill Station in the Western Ghats of India

AbstractThe widespread presence of organic aerosols (OA) in the atmosphere and their dominant role in climate forcing are increasingly recognized. Measurements from the high‐altitude region provide insights into the natural processes and long‐range transport of aerosols. We studied water‐soluble organic compounds in PM1.1 during January‐March 2020 and February‐April 2021 at Ponmudi (8.8°N and 77.1°E), a tropical hill station (960 m a.s.l.) located on the Western Ghats of India. The 5‐day backward trajectories of air masses presented that continental and marine sources impacted the site during the campaign, and thus we classified samples as mixed and marine air masses. Their molecular fingerprints revealed the prevalence of oxalic acid (C2), followed by terephthalic acid in mixed air mass and malonic (C3) or succinic (C4) acid in maritime air mass aerosol samples. This feature and the phthalic to azelaic acid ratio, as well as the C3 to C4 and fumaric to maleic acid ratios, evidenced that water‐soluble OA were of anthropogenic origin and less photochemically aged in mixed air mass samples, whereas they derived from biogenic sources and more photochemical aging in marine air mass samples. However, we found their comparable contributions in water‐soluble organic carbon under mixed and marine air masses. Linear correlations between C2 relative abundance and its ratios with the precursor compounds implied that the oxidation of precursors to oxalic acid occurs during atmospheric transport. The results revealed that the input of anthropogenic and biogenic precursors followed by atmospheric processing controlled the burden of water‐soluble OA across the Western Ghats.

Geomorphological Processes in the Central Kamchatka Depression (the Kamchatka Peninsula, Ne Pacific) During the Last 30 Ka

The paper presents a reconstruction of geomorphological processes in the Central Kamchatka Depression (CKD) since 30 ka, including the global LGM time. Major geomorphological processes of this period included the evolution of volcanic edifices accompanied by steady tectonic submergence. Glaciers that originated from volcanic edifices were greatly affected by both climatic forcing and the eruptive history of their host volcanoes.
 The most prominent geomorphological feature of the studied time was a giant paleolake filled the CKD. The reassessed extent and timing of glaciation and volcanism provided the possible lake fill and discharge model due to the evolution of a piedmont glacier originating from the Old Shiveluch Volcano edifice. The lake discharge likely was gradual and started some 19 ka during the cold settings of LGM, and therefore did not have a climatic origin. The most possible trigger of the discharge is the change in ice supply from the highly active Shiveluch Volcano due to large sector collapses. During the Holocene, the ongoing tectonic submergence of the CKD have been preventing the complete drainage of this paleolake. Even now, an enormously wide floodplain of the Kamchatka River hosts a lacustrine system with a total area of water surface comparable to the largest lakes of the peninsula.

Hybrid Assimilation of Snow Cover Improves Land Surface Simulations over Northern China

Abstract Ensemble data assimilation (DA) is an efficient approach to reduce snow simulation errors by combining observation and land surface modeling. However, there is a small spread between ensemble members of simulated snowpack, which typically occurs for a long time with 100% snow cover fraction (SCF) or snow-free conditions. Here, we apply a hybrid DA method, in which direct insertion (DI) is a supplement of the ensemble square root filter (EnSRF), to assimilate the spaceborne SCF into a land surface model, driven by China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System high-resolution climate forcings over northern China during the snow season in 2021/22. Compared to the open-loop experiment (without SCF assimilation), the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of SCF is reduced by 6% through the original EnSRF and is even lower (by 14%) in the combined DI and EnSRF (EnSRFDI) experiment. The results reveal the ability of both EnSRF and EnSRFDI to improve the SCF estimation over regions where the snow cover is low, while only EnSRFDI is able to efficiently reduce the RMSE over areas with high SCF. Moreover, the SCF assimilation is also observed to improve the snow depth and soil temperature simulations, with the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) increasing at 60% and 56%–70% stations, respectively, particularly under conditions with near-freezing temperature, in which reliable simulations are typically challenging. Our results demonstrate that the EnSRFDI hybrid method can be applied for the assimilation of spaceborne observational snow cover to improve land surface simulations and snow-related operational products. Significance Statement Due to the small spread between the seasonal snowpack of ensemble simulations, ensemble snow cover fraction (SCF) data assimilation (DA) proves to be ineffective. Therefore, we apply a hybrid method that combines the direct insertion (DI) and ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) to assimilate the spaceborne SCF into a land surface model (LSM) driven by high-resolution climate forcings. Our results reveal the applicability of the EnSRFDI to further improve snow cover simulations over regions with high SCF. Furthermore, the DA experiments were validated through a large number of in situ observations from the China Meteorological Administration. The uncertainties of snow depth and soil temperature simulations are also slightly reduced by the SCF DAs, particularly over regions with a poor LSM performance.

Holocene summer temperature reconstruction based on a chironomid record from Sierra Nevada, southern Spain

Obtaining accurate temperature reconstructions from the past is crucial in understanding the consequences of changes in external climate forcings, such as orbital-scale insolation or multidecadal to centennial-scale variability on the climate system and the environment. In addition, these reconstructions help in comprehending the amplitude of natural temperature changes in the past, which can assist in evaluating the amplitude and rate of recent anthropogenic global warming. Here we present the first detailed Holocene mean July air temperature reconstruction based on chironomid assemblages from sediments retrieved from Laguna de Río Seco, an alpine lake in Sierra Nevada, southern Spain. Coldest climate conditions are recorded during the last glacial maximum and the last deglaciation. Warming occurred in the Early Holocene and warmest summer temperature conditions and the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) occurred in the interval roughly between 9000 and 7200 cal yr BP, concurrent with summer insolation maxima. Rapid cooling of ∼1.5 °C occurred after the warmest maximum and between ∼7200 and 6500 cal yr BP, and temperatures stabilized between ∼6500 and 3000 cal yr BP. A further cooling began ∼3000 cal yr BP and culminated with coldest summer conditions during the Dark Ages (DA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) at ∼1550 cal yr BP (∼400 CE) and ∼200 cal yr BP (∼1750 CE), respectively. This cooling temperature trend was interrupted by warmer conditions during the Iberian-Roman Humid Period (IRHP) ∼2000 cal yr BP and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) at ∼1000 cal yr BP. Our reconstruction shows a greater than two-degree cooling during the Middle and Late Holocene, agreeing with global mean surface temperature (GMST) reconstructions. Modern climate warming (MCW) during summer exceeds the two-degree Celsius forecasted for the future due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, suggesting that recent warming is amplified at high elevations. Alpine environments and the biodiversity contained there are thus in danger if the observed temperature trend continues in the next decades.

Initial cyclostratigraphy of the middle Nama Group (Schwarzrand Subgroup) in southern Namibia

The Ediacaran Period includes critical evolutionary trends of early complex life as well as climatic variations associated with ocean oxygenation, glaciations, and carbon cycling, which are still poorly understood in terms of astronomical climate forcing. The middle Nama Group in southern Namibia was deposited during the late Ediacaran in mainly shallow marine environments within a foreland basin and consists of hierarchically arranged depositional sequences. Here, we test a possible astronomical origin of these sedimentary variations by developing an initial cyclostratigraphic framework based on satellite images integrated with recently published high-precision U-Pb zircon ages. Regular sedimentary alternations occur dominantly on scales of several tens of meters, accompanied by smaller- and larger-scale variations, and are correlatable over distances of ∼50 km. Throughout the studied succession, 35 to 39 alternations are recognized on this dominant scale, which have an average duration of ∼120–180 k.y. This duration corresponds well with the period of short eccentricity (∼100 k.y.), given the likely presence of hiatuses, or alternatively, the period of obliquity amplitude modulation (∼173 k.y.), which would imply no time is missing on this scale. The dominant alternations are consistent with previously identified medium-scale sequences in this succession, which have been interpreted to record fluctuations in relative or eustatic sea level. We hypothesize that astronomically-forced fluctuations in eustatic sea level modulated deposition of the middle Nama Group. Geochemical studies suggested a relation between fossil distribution, redox variability and sea level, implying that astronomical forcing may have played a role in the distribution of early complex life.

Sensitivities of cloud radiative effects to large-scale meteorology and aerosols from global observations

Abstract. The radiative effects of clouds make a large contribution to the Earth's energy balance, and changes in clouds constitute the dominant source of uncertainty in the global warming response to carbon dioxide forcing. To characterize and constrain this uncertainty, cloud-controlling factor (CCF) analyses have been suggested that estimate sensitivities of clouds to large-scale environmental changes, typically in cloud-regime-specific multiple linear regression frameworks. Here, local sensitivities of cloud radiative effects to a large number of controlling factors are estimated in a regime-independent framework from 20 years (2001–2020) of near-global (60∘ N–60∘ S) satellite observations and reanalysis data using statistical learning. A regularized linear regression (ridge regression) is shown to skillfully predict anomalies of shortwave (R2=0.63) and longwave cloud radiative effects (CREs) (R2=0.72) in independent test data on the basis of 28 CCFs, including aerosol proxies. The sensitivity of CREs to selected CCFs is quantified and analyzed. CRE sensitivities to sea surface temperature and estimated inversion strength are particularly pronounced in low-cloud regions and generally in agreement with previous studies. The analysis of CRE sensitivities to three-dimensional wind field anomalies reflects the fact that CREs in tropical ascent regions are mainly driven by variability of large-scale vertical velocity in the upper troposphere. In the subtropics, CRE is sensitive to free-tropospheric zonal and meridional wind anomalies, which are likely to encapsulate information on synoptic variability that influences subtropical cloud systems by modifying wind shear and thus turbulence and dry-air entrainment in stratocumulus clouds, as well as variability related to midlatitude cyclones. Different proxies for aerosols are analyzed as CCFs, with satellite-derived aerosol proxies showing a larger CRE sensitivity than a proxy from an aerosol reanalysis, likely pointing to satellite aerosol retrieval biases close to clouds, leading to overestimated aerosol sensitivities. Sensitivities of shortwave CREs to all aerosol proxies indicate a pronounced cooling effect from aerosols in stratocumulus regions that is counteracted to a varying degree by a longwave warming effect. The analysis may guide the selection of CCFs in future sensitivity analyses aimed at constraining cloud feedback and climate forcings from aerosol–cloud interactions using data from both observations and global climate models.

Regional sources control dust in the mountain critical zone of the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains, USA

Mountain environments are profoundly impacted by the deposition of mineral dust, yet the degree to which this material is far-traveled or intra-regional is typically unclear. This distinction is fundamental to model future changes in mountain geoecosystems resulting from climatic or anthropogenic forcing in dust source regions. We address this question with a network of 17 passive dust samplers installed in primarily mountain locations in Utah, Nevada, and Idaho between October, 2020 and October 2021. For each collector, the dust deposition rate was calculated, and the physical and chemical properties of the dust were constrained. Results were combined with backward trajectory modeling to identify the geologic characteristics of the area over which air passed most frequently in route to each collector (the ‘hot spot’). Dust properties differ significantly between collectors, hot spots for many collectors are spatially discrete, and the dominant geologies in the hot spots corresponding to each collector vary considerably. These results support the hypothesis that the majority of the dust deposited in the areas we studied is sourced from arid lowlands in the surrounding region.