Climate Risk Reduction Research Articles

Deliberating about Climate Change: The Case for ‘Thinking and Nudging’

AbstractProponents of deliberative democracy believe deliberation provides the best chance of finding effective and legitimate climate policies. However, in many societies there is substantial evidence of biased cognition and polarisation about climate change. Further, many appear unable to distinguish reliable scientific information from false claims or misinformation. While deliberation significantly reduces polarisation about climate change, and can even increase the provision of reliable beliefs, these benefits are difficult to scale up, and are slow to affect whole societies. In response, I propose a combined strategy of ‘thinking and nudging’. While deliberative theorists tend to view nudging askance, combining deliberation with nudges promises to be a timelier and more effective response to climate change than deliberation alone. I outline several proposals to improve societal deliberative capacity while reducing climate risks, including media reform, strategic communication and framing of debates, incentivising pro-climate behaviour change, and better education about science.

The Vanuatu Tourism Adaptation System: a holistic approach to reducing climate risk

Tourist destinations in small island developing states are facing increasing risk from climate change, threatening not only tourism businesses but all destination elements including the community and ecosystems. In order to reduce climate risk destination wide, this paper first enhances the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change risk framework by extending it with destination specific features. This extended framework was drawn upon to develop a system model for Vanuatu, called the Vanuatu Tourism Adaptation System, using a qualitative multi-phase research design. The system highlights economic, socio-cultural, political, and environmental variables, how they are interlinked and thereby influence climate risk to destinations in Vanuatu. It provides a novel tool for understanding climate risk reduction within destinations as a holistic system and based on this understanding, destination trade-offs and policy recommendations are discussed. It can thus aid tourism and climate change decision makers in identifying and testing adaptation measures that benefit not only tourism but the destination more broadly, including the local community and ecosystem health. This study fills a gap in the academic literature by enhancing the systemic understanding of climate risk in small island developing states destinations and contributes to our understanding of tourism as a climate-resilient development pathway.

Policy innovations for pro-poor climate support: social protection, small-scale infrastructure, and active citizenship under India’s MGNREGA

ABSTRACT While extensive scholarship has explored principles for pro-poor climate support, there is a need for knowledge of specific strategies that can achieve these objectives on the ground. This paper examines India's Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and its effects on climate risk reduction. Although the MGNREGA was not designed specifically as a climate programme, it incorporates three key elements with the potential to advance pro-poor climate assistance objectives: (a) social protection through the provision of minimum wage labour; (b) the development of small-scale, natural resource-focused infrastructure; and (c) a decentralized, ‘community-based’ planning architecture. Analysis of a primary dataset comprising 1400 households and 798 projects in India's state Himachal Pradesh, interpreted through intensive qualitative fieldwork, shows that both projects and labour have helped vulnerable households confront climate and other risks, while the Act's decentralized architecture has expanded the channels for citizens to claim support for local challenges. The paper argues for the importance of building a broader ‘ecosystem’ of support to target diverse local needs, and of the need to strengthen the political architectures through which vulnerable groups access these benefits on the ground – especially in the context of decentralized approaches for climate assistance.

Does climate opportunity facilitate smallholder farmers\u2019 adaptive capacity in the Sahel?

In Africa, adaptation will be crucial to offset expected negative climate change impacts on food security and agriculture development. In this study, we combine meteorological data from 18 local stations, field surveys on agricultural practices and agronomic information on the growth of millet to demonstrate the crop suitability to the present climate and the ability of Senegalese farmers to adapt their practices to climate variability, and to disseminate them. From data collected in both 665 villages and 1061 farmers, our study provides quantitative evidence of the responsive adaptation of farmers in the Sahel where the recent resumption of rainfall has provided new agricultural opportunities. Statistical models and cropping simulations show that these farmers innovate by reintroducing and disseminating a long cycle millet cultivar—more suitable for wet environments. We note that although this adaptation is a clear response to recent changes in quantity and distribution of rainfall, its adoption remains limited (50% of the villages visited and 25% of the surveyed agricultural producers have cultivated the new millet variety) and varies strongly within the same climatic context and by characteristics of farmers (willing and capacity), indicating different agricultural strategies (diversification, market exchanges). If land access and development of cash crops are hindrances to the adoption of sanio, poverty is clearly not a barrier and adaptation is not a lever for wealth creation. Such adaptative capacities, together with government incentives for farmers to sustainably adapt to climate change, can be important in reducing climate risks in the coming years.

Assessing the impacts of climate change on dependable flow and potential irrigable area using the SWAT model. The case of Maasin River watershed in Laguna, Philippines

Seasonal changes in rainfall and temperature brought about by climate change affect water resources availability for rice production areas. There are currently no published applications of the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model on quantified effects of climate variability on irrigation service areas for rice production. The study assessed the impacts of climate change on dependable flow and potential irrigable areas of the Maasin River in Laguna, Philippines. Projected variations of rainfall and temperature in 2020 and 2050 developed using PRECIS model based on special report on emission scenarios were employed. The SWAT model was then used to simulate stream flow for each climate change scenario, from which dependable flows were quantified using flow duration analysis. Diversion water requirements for the rice areas in the watershed were determined using CROPWAT. Based on dependable flows and irrigation demand, the potential irrigable areas were estimated. Calibration and validation of the SWAT model showed satisfactory performance in stream flow simulations. The dependable flow in irrigation systems may decline by more than 50% in 2020 and by as much as 97% in 2050, because of seasonal changes in rainfall. In effect, the potential irrigable area may decrease to less than half of the current service area depending on the level of greenhouse gases emissions. SWAT water balance projections suggest surface runoff during wet seasons and increase annual groundwater recharge are possible sources of supplemental irrigation. Provisions of suitable storage reservoir facilities and groundwater development projects will alleviate water scarce conditions. The study demonstrated a technique that may be applied in other irrigation systems in the Philippines and in other countries to quantify the effects of climate change on dependable flows and potential irrigable areas. It can serve as an input to water resources planning and policy recommendations for climate change adaptation and risk reduction strategies. This technique can also be used to assess water resources in other perennial rivers and its viability for the development of new irrigation systems in the Philippines.

Greater Aceh, Indonesia Enters Climate Change: Climate on Extreme ENSO 2015-2016

The objective of the study is to analyse the rainfall variability and temperature over Greater Aceh and its correlation to ENSO event. Long-term rainfall observation data spanning from 1982-2018 was retrieved from meteorological station of Blang Bintang, Greater Aceh. The Pearson correlation was employed to find the relationship between rainfall and El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrence. It is shown from frequency analysis that rainfall decreased in the 90s. After the tsunami as climate change become unequivocal the rainfall trend increase as a result of land use change and much worst as severe ENSO 2015 arrived over the region which statistically significant was found between those two corresponding events. During El Niño, rainfall is less while La Niña more rainfall than normal drop over the region. To cope with climate change issues where ENSO is very likely to occur in future time, an appropriate mitigation is required to conduct for instance: managing forest resources and land use by reducing deforestation and land conversion, the control of fossil fuel burning, and the most important thing is to establish a renewable energy as an effort to implement sustainable green energy in the future as well as climate risk reduction.

A Resilience Approach to Community-Scale Climate Adaptation

Climate risk is expected to impact rural communities in West Africa in multiple ways. However, most current research addresses resilience and climate adaptation at either the national or the household scale; very little is known about community-scale interventions. We interviewed 934 community members in six communities in southeastern Nigeria about sources of climate risk and community-based actions for climate change adaptation. We found these communities contained multiple active and engaged groups that have implemented a wide range of interventions to reduce climate risk, most of which are seen as effective by community members. Flooding was the most common form of risk in this region, but drought, windstorms, and irregular rainy seasons are also frequent, implying that effective climate adaptation will have to be sensitive to multiple types of risk. Structural interventions (constructing roads, bridges, etc.) were the most common type of intervention, suggesting that communities are capable of marshalling considerable organizational and human power for adaptation efforts, even in the absence of external assistance. Efforts to boost community resilience and adaptation to climate change would benefit from first understanding what community actions are currently underway, and working with the groups implementing these actions to support and extend them.

Democracy and climate-change action

Climate Change Climate models aiming to explore how global warming can be limited to the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5° or 2°C usually invoke sweeping technical and societal transformations. These include the extensive use of carbon dioxide removal technologies. In a Perspective, Lawrence and Schafer argue that this reliance on technologies may be difficult or impossible to implement at the required scale, making the Paris temperature goals increasingly less plausible. A way forward is the innovative concept of nationally determined contributions to climate risk reduction, introduced in the Paris Agreement. This fosters greater democratic engagement, accountability, and meaningful change toward mitigating and adapting to climate change. Science , this issue p. [829][1] [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.aaw4602

Index insurance and climate risk management: Addressing social equity

AbstractFair distribution of benefits from index insurance matters. Lack of attention to social equity can reinforce inequalities and undermine the potential index insurance holds as a tool for climate risk management that is also pro‐poor. The aims of this article are to: (a) examine social equity concerns raised by index insurance in the context of climate risk management, (b) consider how greater attention can be paid to social equity in index insurance initiatives, and (c) reflect on the policy challenges raised by taking social equity into account as a mechanism for climate risk reduction. The article draws on learning from the CGIAR's Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and presents the cases of the Index Based Livelihoods Insurance (IBLI) and Agriculture and Climate Risk Enterprise Ltd. (ACRE) in East Africa. It proposes a framework for unpacking social equity related to equitable access, procedures, representation and distribution within index insurance schemes. The framework facilitates identification of opportunities for building outcomes that are more equitable, with greater potential for inclusion and fairer distribution of benefits related to index insurance. The article argues that systematically addressing social equity raises hard policy choices for index insurance initiatives without straightforward solutions. Attention to how benefits and burdens of index insurance are distributed, suggests the unpalatable truth for development policy that the poorest members of rural society can be excluded. Nevertheless, a focus on social equity—facilitated by the framework—opens up opportunities to ensure index insurance is linked to more socially just climate risk management. At the very least, it may prevent index insurance from generating greater inequality. Taking social equity into account, thus, shifts the focus from agricultural systems in transition per se to systems with potential to incorporate societal transformation through distributive justice.

Extent and evaluation of vulnerability for disaster risk reduction of urban Nuku'alofa, Tonga

The Kingdom of Tonga, its people, economy and day-to-day operability are extremely vulnerable to the perils of natural hazards and climate change. Indeed, Tonga is rated the second most at-risk nation in the Pacific. The aim of this study was to assess the urban resilience of Tonga's capital Nuku'alofa to the effects of climate changes and natural disasters. This paper identifies the natural hazard risk in the Tongan capital of Nuku'alofa by providing an integrated disaster and climate risk reduction assessment. It outlines major gaps in risk awareness and community-based disaster risk management practices through extensive literature research, the analysis of secondary information and consultations with stakeholders. This research adopts an indicator-based approach to assess each element of the country's disaster management system. Furthermore, it assesses policy and regulatory frameworks that define Nuku'alofa's approach to disaster management and climate change. Both quantitative and qualitative analyses were used in this study, which co-benefits urban development in Tongan communities to enhance urban resilience. The main objective of this model is to rank a given set of infrastructure sector indicators based on their disaster and development-related vulnerability. Disaster risk depends on both physical vulnerability and a wide range of social, economic, and environmental aspects. For a better risk understanding, a holistic perspective was applied to assess the natural hazard risk for Nuku'alofa. The comprehensive approach of this paper outlines the current disaster risk resilience profile of Nuku'alofa, including current hazard assessments and urban disaster resilience assessments, while recommending mitigation measures to help reduce the risk.

Assessment of El Niño and La Niña impacts on China: Enhancing the Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture

Assessing crop production variations is of great importance for agriculture and food security worldwide. The impacts of El Niño and La Niña events are particularly critical for understanding these variations. Besides the individual El Niño and La Niña event, newly-identified El Niño and La Niña dominant cycles also add another dimension into the analysis. As the world largest food producer and importer, China has endeavored to increase its agricultural production while reducing climate risks over time. By using satellite-based indicators, ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) indices and grain yield statistics for China, the characteristics of ENSO events, as well as their relationships with crop-growing conditions and yields at different administrative levels are analyzed. The results show that the evaluation of agricultural impacts of an El Niño/La Niña event should consider both the dominant cycle in which the event occurs and the characteristics of the event itself, combined with local crop phenology. Additionally, county and prefectural level analysis shows that over the long term, in China, La Niña events tend to have net positive impacts on grain productivity compared to the effects of El Niño events. The analysis and methods presented can be extended to other countries in the world and help better understand the local agricultural impact of El Niño and La Niña phenomena. This, in turn, would improve the agriculture and food security related early warning capacities of countries to issue and trigger targeted and timely response and climate risk reduction measures.

Economic Dimension of the Climate Challenge to Russia’s Sustainable Development

The choice of an efficient response to climate challenge to Russia’s sustainable development is considered. The low-carbon economy paradigm is analyzed critically in terms of its ability to stabilize the climate situation (not to exceed the 2°C growth of the global air temperature by the end of the 21st century), improve the quality of life, and provide for sustainable economic development. It is argued that an efficient action strategy to reduce climate risks of socioeconomic development involves several interrelated groups of institutional, economic, and technological measures. The strategy priorities include: economic growth stimulation based on improved production efficiency using the best available resource use technologies; the reduction of hazardous economic impacts on human health and the environment (primarily emissions of hazardous, including carbon-containing, pollutants into the atmosphere); human health and ecosystems adaptation to and protection against the above impacts and their consequences, including those provoked by climate change; the alleviation of accumulated adverse effects; and the reduction of the current and future anthropogenic effects on environmental climate forcing factors.

The Low-Carbon Development Paradigm and Climate Change Risk Reduction Strategy for the Economy

The low-carbon economic paradigm is critically analyzed as to stabilizing the climate situation (not to exceed the 2°С growth of the global air temperature until the end of the 21st century) and improving the quality of life and sustainable economic growth. Climate change is emphasized as being just a part of the total risk for human life and health and economic growth, which is proved by the set of goals of sustainable development adopted by the world community. Hence, a solution of the problem of climate change is necessary—in the long and and distant future—but insufficient condition to minimize the risk for the quality of human life, primarily health, and sustainable economic growth. It is agrued that an efficient action strategy to reduce climate risks for socioeconomic development must target not finding the ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but rather development and implementation of a set of measures to ensure the basic goals of sustainable development. In addition, priority must be given to the reduction of emissions of hazardous substances, as well as to planning and implementing measures of the communitiesэ and economy adaptation to climate change with adaptation remaining a key component of the climate risk reduction policy. A case study of China—the global leader in low-carbon energy development race—proves that the strategic policy priority is not climatic but environmental and economic issues as well as (in case of nuclear power plants) military-strategic motivation.

Justification of Measures to Reduce Greenhouse Gases Emissions by Transport and Adaptation of Transport Infrastructure Facilities to Climate Change in Permafrost Zones

The models, methods, as well as the results of the justification of measures to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by the transport complex for the period up to 2030 to improve its environmental safety, as well as assessing the effectiveness of measures (the use of seasonal cooling devices (SOA) – heat stabilizers) are considered transport infrastructure facilities (TIFs) of road, rail, air and water transport when implementing different climate change scenarios in the areas of permafrost. For sections of roads and railways (in the embankment), runways of airfields in the territories examined in the next 30 years, high climatic risks that require the use of heat stabilizers are not forecasted. For these objects can be applied less costly protective measures. The pile foundation of bridges and other transportation facilities can be sufficiently effectively protected by heat stabilizers from the effects of climate change. In relation to the strip and raft foundations of port facilities, other production facilities in the territories examined, the use of the SOA is a very effective measure to reduce climate risks. An increase in the expected effectiveness of measures to adapt them in the case of transition from continuous permafrost to its island and rare island species has been established for all types of TIFs. The reduced efficiency of the use of heat stabilizers in soils of low humidity, especially in sandy soils for all types of TIFs, was recorded.

Optimized sowing time windows mitigate climate risks for oats production under cool semi-arid growing conditions

Year to year variability in weather poses serious risks to crop production in the environmentally fragile agro-ecosystems of cool semi-arid areas, and future climate changes might further aggravate those risks. This study aims to quantify the contribution of altered sowing time windows to reduce climate risk for the production of oats (Avena sativa), a crop that is well adapted to short growing seasons and low rainfall. The APSIM-Oats model was calibrated and validated for phenology, above-ground dry matter and yield using data from field experiments with five sowing dates, conducted from 2009 to 2013 in Inner Mongolia, China. The model was used to determine yield trends and yield-limiting factors under rain-fed conditions using historical weather data. Changes in temperature had greater impact on crop production than changes in rainfall and the simulations indicated the importance of changed sowing windows to lengthen the growth duration and optimize water use. Delayed sowing of oats, 10 days later than current practice, ensured more secure temperature and rainfall conditions from emergence to flowering and substantially increased yields and decreased climate risk. Delayed sowing also reduced climate risk under two future climate scenarios, RCP4.5 (stabilize growth) and RCP8.5 (high greenhouse gas emission). We conclude that adaptation of sowing time of oats provides a practical strategy for enhancing yield and mitigating climate risk under climate change.

Plastic film cover during the fallow season preceding sowing increases yield and water use efficiency of rain-fed spring maize in a semi-arid climate

Plastic film mulch increases crop yields in rain-fed agriculture in cool semi-arid climates by warming the soil and reducing evaporative water losses. The semi-arid Khorchin area in Northeast China is an important production area for rain-fed maize. Drought stress occurs frequently, even if plastic film mulch is applied at sowing. We hypothesized that the yield and water capture of maize could be increased by reducing evaporative loss of water by use of plastic film cover during the autumn and winter preceding sowing. In this study, we compared maize growth, water uptake and yield in three film cover treatments: (1) film cover from the autumn before maize sowing until maize harvest (autumn mulching: AM), (2) film cover from maize sowing till harvest (conventional practice) (spring mulching: SM), (3) no film cover (no mulch: NM). Field experiments were conducted in Fuxin city, Khorchin region, Liaoning province, China in 2013/2014 and 2014/2015. Autumn mulching increased grain yield on average by 18% when compared to spring mulching and by 36% when compared to no mulching. The 1000-kernel weight in AM was 7% higher than in SM, and 12% higher than in NM. Soil water content in the root zone before sowing was 35 mm greater in AM than in SM and NM. Water uptake during the growing season was 34 mm greater in AM than in SM and NM. Water use efficiency for grain yield (yield per unit water uptake) in AM was on average 2.5% higher than in conventional mulching (SM) and 27% higher than in NM. Autumn mulching advanced development, with an advance of 5 days in tasseling time as compared to SM and 10 days when compared to NM. These results show that film cover during the fallow period before maize sowing can increase crop yield and water use efficiency, and reduce climate risks in rain-fed agriculture under semi-arid conditions.

When portfolio theory can help environmental investment planning to reduce climate risk to future environmental outcomes—and when it cannot

AbstractVariability among climate change scenarios produces great uncertainty in what is the best allocation of resources among investments to protect environmental goods in the future. Previous research shows Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) can help optimize environmental investment targeting to reduce outcome uncertainty with minimal loss of expected level of environmental benefits, but no work has yet identified the types of cases for which MPT is most useful. This article assembles data on 26 different conservation cases in three distinct ecological settings and develops new metrics to evaluate how well MPT can reduce uncertainty in future outcomes of a set of environmental investments. We find MPT is broadly but not universally useful and works best when multiple investments have negatively correlated outcomes across climate scenarios; a second‐best investment has expected value almost as good as the value in the best investment; or multiple investments have little uncertainty in ecological outcomes.

Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches

Abstract. Integrated risk assessment approaches to support coastal managers' decisions when designing plans are increasingly becoming an urgent need. To enable efficient coastal management, possible present and future scenarios must be included, disaster risk reduction measures integrated, and multiple hazards dealt with. In this work, the Bayesian network-based approach to coastal risk assessment was applied and tested at two Mediterranean sandy coasts (Tordera Delta in Spain and Lido degli Estensi–Spina in Italy). Process-oriented models are used to predict hazards at the receptor scale which are converted into impacts through vulnerability relations. In each site, results from 96 simulations under different scenarios are integrated by using a Bayesian-based decision network to link forcing characteristics with expected impacts through conditional probabilities. Consultations with local stakeholders and experts have shown that the tool is valuable for communicating risks and the effects of risk reduction strategies. The tool can therefore be valuable support for coastal decision-making.

Catastrophic Climate Change and Forest Tipping Points: Blind Spots in International Politics and Policy

AbstractScientists believe that humanity has already crossed the core planetary boundary for climate change, and is closer to crossing thresholds that trigger abrupt and irreversible environmental changes. Consequently, academia and the international political community should not disregard the prospect of a catastrophic environmental event. However, discussions about climate change usually assume the resilience of potentially deteriorating terrestrial‐biosphere carbon sinks and rarely acknowledge catastrophic climate risk. Reviewing the latest scientific evidence on anthropogenic climate change, as well as the current and projected threats to the resilience of key large forest biomes, and combining them with the profound political frailties of the Paris Climate Agreement, this article argues that catastrophic climate risk is much more serious and likely than most of humanity is able to perceive and should thus be seriously considered. It emphasizes the massive gap between science and political action and how cognitive, cultural, institutional, and political limitations hinder our capacity to envisage, prevent, and ultimately manage catastrophic climate change. The article concludes by briefly raising awareness regarding the role that academia should play in catastrophic climate risk reduction.

Rating climate risks to credit worthiness

Credit ratings agencies are now accounting for climate change risks in their ratings of credit worthiness. This could incentivize climate risk reduction efforts if it allows organizations access to cheaper credit. Karl Mathiesen investigates the extent to which this is happening in practice.