Does climate opportunity facilitate smallholder farmers\u2019 adaptive capacity in the Sahel?

Richard Lalou,Richard Lalou,Richard Lalou,Alphousseyni Ndonky,Bertrand Muller,Benjamin Sultan,Benjamin Sultan

doi:10.1057/s41599-019-0288-8

Abstract

In Africa, adaptation will be crucial to offset expected negative climate change impacts on food security and agriculture development. In this study, we combine meteorological data from 18 local stations, field surveys on agricultural practices and agronomic information on the growth of millet to demonstrate the crop suitability to the present climate and the ability of Senegalese farmers to adapt their practices to climate variability, and to disseminate them. From data collected in both 665 villages and 1061 farmers, our study provides quantitative evidence of the responsive adaptation of farmers in the Sahel where the recent resumption of rainfall has provided new agricultural opportunities. Statistical models and cropping simulations show that these farmers innovate by reintroducing and disseminating a long cycle millet cultivar—more suitable for wet environments. We note that although this adaptation is a clear response to recent changes in quantity and distribution of rainfall, its adoption remains limited (50% of the villages visited and 25% of the surveyed agricultural producers have cultivated the new millet variety) and varies strongly within the same climatic context and by characteristics of farmers (willing and capacity), indicating different agricultural strategies (diversification, market exchanges). If land access and development of cash crops are hindrances to the adoption of sanio, poverty is clearly not a barrier and adaptation is not a lever for wealth creation. Such adaptative capacities, together with government incentives for farmers to sustainably adapt to climate change, can be important in reducing climate risks in the coming years.

Highlights

Some evidence show that agriculture will be more affected by climate change in Africa than in other regions of the world (Sultan and Gaetani, 2016; Knox et al, 2012; Roudier et al, 2011, Rippke et al, 2016)
When facing climate-related shocks, resource-poor farmers adopt erosive coping strategies for agriculture, whose long-term impacts are negative on household productivity (Kates et al, 2012; Rickards and Howden, 2012), and/or develop migration strategies (Suhrke, 1994; Findley, 1994; Henry et al, 2004; Lalou and Delaunay, 2017)
We show first that decade-long trend of rainfall is very well perceived by farmers, who quickly responded using some adaptive strategies

Summary

Introduction

Some evidence show that agriculture will be more affected by climate change in Africa than in other regions of the world (Sultan and Gaetani, 2016; Knox et al, 2012; Roudier et al, 2011, Rippke et al, 2016). In dry land areas, have developed both on- and off-farm adaptation strategies in response to these risks These are based on four principles: (i) diversification (crops and farming/nonfarming activities); (ii) association (different crops on the same field, mixed crop-livestock farming, cultivated/natural spaces); (iii) intensification (labour resources and soil fertility); and (iv) species selection (based on natural conditions and population needs) (Agrawal, 2010). These adaptative strategies have aimed to offset the negative impacts of natural climatic variations and shocks, including droughts, and sustain the agroecosystem, whenever possible, without changing its fundamental attributes (Malik et al, 2010; Parry et al, 2007; Fankhauser et al, 1999). The question raised in this study is to determine whether climate opportunity is likely to facilitate adaptation of vulnerable agrarian societies

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