Climate Proof Research Articles

Climate change adaptation; innovative tools and strategies in Delta City Rotterdam

In 2025 the majority of the world population will live in flood prone delta cities. Delta City Rotterdam, with one of the biggest ports in the world, is dealing with the consequences of climate change in a very pro-active and smart way, turning challenges into opportunities. The RCP Rotterdam Climate Proof program aims at making the city completely climate resilient by 2025, by building multifunctional flood protection and innovative water storage for urban drain water. But also by kicking-off a Rotterdam Adaptation Strategy RAS, by using new smart technologies like Apps and serious gaming, and by redeveloping and revitalizing its old city ports areas with attractive waterfronts. At these waterfronts, where education of future generations is combined with innovative and sustainable development of businesses, best practices are showcased to make the city more attractive, to add economic value and to create resilient communities. This knowledge and experience is shared with other delta and coastal cities in the world, in the ‘Connecting Delta Cities’ global network, and with the Rockefeller Foundation 100 Resilient Cities initiative. This article explains that dealing with climate change in a pro-active and smart way creates opportunities for attractive, resilient and economically strong delta cities of the future.

Microfinance and climate change adaptation: an overview of the current literature

There is growing interest in the role microfinance could play in facilitating adaptation to climate change. This article reviews the literature linking microfinance and climate change adaptation, which falls into two key areas. The first area focuses on the potential for microfinance to facilitate household adaptation, which has been only partially successful in linking microfinance and adaptation because of weak conceptualization of adaptation and terminological shortcomings. The second area examines the vulnerability of microfinance institutions to climate change, highlighting that they are directly vulnerable to climate change themselves and are indirectly vulnerable through their beneficiaries. The realization of climate-resilient microfinance requires both climate proofing internal operations to reduce direct vulnerability, and promoting climate resilience among beneficiaries. This may have already happened serendipitously to an extent, but there is scope for further action. We conclude that more evidence is needed to substantiate the links and thus progress the literature, particularly studies employing an adaptation lens.

Governing the future? The potential of adaptive delta management to contribute to governance capabilities for dealing with the wicked problem of climate change adaptation

Due to the long term character of the policy issue, the associated uncertainties and the large variety of affected stakeholders, adapting densely populated delta areas to the impacts of climate change is an important governance challenge and a wicked problem. In this paper, we analyse adaptive delta management (ADM), a policy development approach that relies on adaptation tipping points and adaptation pathways, used by the Dutch Delta Programme to climate proof the Dutch delta. ADM operationalizes adaptive management ideas for the long term governance of river deltas. Taking a governance perspective, we assess the potential of ADM to contribute to each of the five governance capabilities required to deal with wicked problems: reflexivity, responsiveness, resilience, revitalization and rescaling. We conclude that ADM can contribute substantially to the governance capabilities of resilience (through robustness and flexibility) and rescaling (through addressing the time scale mismatch). ADM has the potential to contribute to the governance capabilities of reflexivity and responsiveness, but also has some characteristics that could result in non-reflexivity and non-responsiveness. Enabling ADM as a policy development approach for long term issues requires a long term commitment to iterative policy revision, flexibility and learning in the broader governance system.

Derivatives for Development? Small‐Farmer Vulnerability and the Financialization of Climate Risk Management

While agricultural production has always been a risky endeavour, it has become even more so in the current context of climatic change and increasing market uncertainty. Meanwhile, the rollback of state protections has rendered small‐scale farmers, especially marginalized peasant producers in the Global South, particularly vulnerable to these contemporary stressors. This essay critically evaluates the contemporary roll‐out of financial derivatives that purportedly aim to mitigate smallholder vulnerability. It gives particular attention to a novel type of derivative known as index‐based agricultural insurance (IBAI) that plays an increasingly prominent role in initiatives to ‘climate proof’ agriculture. The creation of IBAI markets has required significant work, including (1) technical interventions to debundle environmental risk from agricultural production and rebundle it in novel ways that support private financial capital and agricultural input suppliers, (2) extensive state support in the creation of risk markets, and (3) the construction of an accommodating ‘insurance culture’ among small‐scale producers. In addition to mitigating weather‐based risk, a primary objective of IBAI is to spur agricultural modernization. In promoting this agenda, IBAI initiatives may have the paradoxical effect of exposing smallholders to new risks while expanding their overall vulnerability to environmental and economic stressors.

Classifying Urban Building from Road Based on Fuzzy Logic Rules and Climate Proofing Codes Using Quick Bird Imagery

Classifying Urban Building from Road Based on Fuzzy Logic Rules and Climate Proofing Codes Using Quick Bird Imagery

Climate Change, Energy Policy and Justice: A Systematic Review

Abstract Energy efficiency and energy security are emerging concerns in climate change policy. But. there is little acknowledgment of energy justice issues. Marginalised and vulnerable communities may be disproportionately exposed to both climate change impacts (e.g. heat, flooding) and costs associated with energy transitions related to climate change mitigation and adaptation (e.g. particulate exposure from biofuel combustion). Climate change is producing energy-related impacts such as increased cooling costs. In some cases it threatens energy security. Higher electricity costs associated with ‘climate proofing’ energy network infrastructure may exacerbate ‘fuel poverty’ - itself a form of injustice. In this paper we critically review the literature about multiple interrelations between energy policy, justice and climate change. We identify key issues, illuminate knowledge gaps, and synthesise findings to develop a conceptual model. We chart a research agenda and highlight policy implications.

Transboundary ecological networks as an adaptation strategy to climate change: The example of the Dutch – German border

Establishing ecological networks across national boundaries is essential for species to adapt to shifts in future suitable climate zones. This paper presents a method to assess whether the existing ecological network in the Dutch – German border region is “climate proof”. Using distribution data and climate envelope models for 846 species in Europe (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and butterflies) we identified 216 species with climate-induced range shifts in the border region. A range expansion is predicted for 99 species and the ranges of 117 species are predicted to contract. The spatial cohesion of the ecological network was analysed for selected species that vary in habitat requirements and colonisation ability (forest species: Brenthis daphne, Dendrocopos medius; wetland species: Maculinea teleius, Lutra lutra). The assessment shows that optimising transboundary networks and developing corridors seems a suitable adaptation strategy for the forest species and for L. lutra. For the immobile butterfly M. teleius, the present habitat network is too weak and translocation into future suitable climate space seems to be a more appropriate adaptation measure. Our results underline that due to climate change landscape planning and management should not only focus on areas where target species occur today. The presented method can identify strongholds and bottlenecks in transboundary ecological networks and incorporate demands of climate adaptation into spatial planning which forms the basis for taking measures at a more detailed level.

Adaptation Measures in the EU: Policies, Costs, and Economic Assessment ('Climate Proofing' of Key EU Policies)

The aim of this report is to ascertain priority concerns for further climate proofing action through opposing current EU efforts to different threats, and suggest complementary options (cf. chapter 3) for the following four sectors: (1)
Energy, (2)
Transport infrastructure,
(3) Urban areas, and (4)
Agriculture. A final selection of measures to be assessed with a view to their costs and economic, social and environmental impacts was agreed at the first interim meeting with the Commission. Measures already part of EU wide assessment projects were not part of the assessment. In a first step (chapter 3) key policy areas have been screened to identify adaptation measures. A final selection of measures agreed with the Commission was further processed in terms of costing (chapter 4) and the assessment of impacts (chapter 5).

Autonomous household responses and urban governance capacity building for climate change adaptation: Georgetown, Guyana

Governance dynamics and the interplay between inadequate infrastructural investment and institutional inertia undermine the potential of low-income cities in low-elevation coastal zones to become climate change resilient. This paper explores the influence of these factors as well as household socio-economic characteristics on autonomous household adaptation to climate change. Georgetown, Guyana is used as a case study. Empirical analysis revealed that state inability to solve socio-economic, infrastructural and environmental problems led urban households to independently adopt measures aimed at reducing climate change impacts. Spontaneous maladaptation by all households in response to state failure and weak urban governance, however, exacerbated vulnerability to flooding. The paper has global applicability in that it cautions policymakers and practitioners on the shortcomings of spontaneous maladaptation, and provides prescriptions for improved urban governance and spatial planning to facilitate the climate proofing of cities. Furthermore, it highlights the importance and complexities of financing climate change adaptation, and concludes these will continue to constrain the adaptive capacity of vulnerable city populations in the less developed countries of the South, unless developed global partners cooperate.

How climate proof is the European Union’s biodiversity policy?

In the European Union’s (EU) targets for the year 2020, climate change is recognised as a key challenge for biodiversity conservation. Meeting this challenge requires insight at three levels: the climate change impacts on biodiversity in the EU; the adaptation options put forward to alleviate these impacts; and how current EU policy can accommodate the adaptation options. These three topics have all been discussed in the peer-reviewed literature, but typically in isolation and with potential bias in attention for specific aspects such as species distribution shifts and network connectivity. Here, we bring these three levels together to identify matches and gaps between them, to guide policy development. In particular, we assess key concerns on the degree to which EU biodiversity policy facilitates climate change adaptation. Our findings indicate that, firstly, available adaptation options do not cover all impacts of climate change. Options are biased towards shifts and contractions in species distributions, while, e.g., disruption of species interactions is not addressed yet. Second, proposed adaptation options are often generic and lack spatial specificity, revealing an urgent need for guidance on identifying appropriate, albeit adaptive responses to the range of climate change impacts. Third, while EU biodiversity policy requires and supports adaptation in several ways, its narrow interpretation hinders its potential to conserve biodiversity under climate change. Remaining policy gaps include: (1) conservation targets need to better match conservation needs; (2) targets need to be set in a spatially coherent manner across national scales; (3) current monitoring appears insufficient to address these gaps.

The soil–water system as basis for a climate proof and healthy urban environment: Opportunities identified in a Dutch case-study

One of the effects of climate change expected to take place in urban areas in the Netherlands is an increase in periods of extreme heat and drought. How the soil can contribute to making cities more climate proof is often neglected. Unsealed soil and green spaces increase water storage capacity and can consequently prevent flooding. The planning of public or private green spaces can have a cooling effect and, in general, have a positive effect on how people perceive their health. This paper reviews existing guidelines from Dutch policy documents regarding unsealed soil and green spaces in the Netherlands; do they support climate adaptation policies? Scientific literature was used to quantify the positive effects of green spaces on water storage capacity, cooling and public health. Finally we present a case study of a model town where different policy areas are linked together. Maps were made to provide insight into the ratio of unsealed soil and the number of green spaces in relation to existing guidelines using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Maps marking the age and social-economic status of the population were also made. The benefits of green spaces are difficult to express in averages because they depend on many different factors such as soil properties, type of green spaces, population characteristics and spatial planning. Moreover, it is not possible to provide quantifications of the benefits of green spaces because of a lack of scientific evidence at the moment. Based on the maps, however, policy assessments can be made, for example, in which site a neighborhood will most benefit from investment in parks and public gardens. Neighborhoods where people have a low social-economic status have for example fewer green spaces than others. This offers opportunities for efficient adaptation policies linking goals of several policy fields.

European water policy and research on water-related topics – An overview

European water policy developments are essentially linked to the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive and parent legislation, which is built upon the principle of river basin management planning with the objective of achieving good status for all European water bodies. Recent policy developments in the climate change area call for ‘climate proofing’ of EU actions through mainstreaming of adaptation measures into policies and programmes. These policy trends are very closely related to the capacity to get access to supporting scientific information and to bridge the knowledge gap. This paper is about these features, serving as an introduction to the special issue of Journal of Hydrology on climatic change impact on water: overcoming data and science gaps.

Costs and benefits of adapting spatial planning to climate change: lessons learned from a large-scale urban development project in the Netherlands

Climate change increases the vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas. Careful spatial planning can reduce this vulnerability, provided that decision-makers have insight into the costs and benefits of adaptation options. This paper addresses the question which adaptation options are suitable, from an economic perspective, to adapt spatial planning to climate change at a regional scale. We apply social cost–benefit analysis to assess the net benefits of adaptation options that deal with the impacts of climate change-induced extreme events. From the methods applied and results obtained, we also aim at learning lessons for assessing climate adaptation options. The case study area, the Zuidplaspolder, is a large-scale urban development project in the Netherlands. The costs as well as the primary and secondary benefits of adaptation options relating to spatial planning (e.g. flood-proof housing and adjusted infrastructure) are identified and where possible quantified. Our results show that three adaptation options are not efficient investments, as the investment costs exceed the benefits of avoided damages. When we focus on ‘climate proofing’ the total area of the Zuidplaspolder, when the costs and benefits of all the presented adaptation options are considered together, the total package has a positive net present value. The study shows that it is possible to anticipate climate change impacts and assess the costs and benefits of adjusting spatial planning. We have learned that scenario studies provide a useful tool but that decision-making under climate change uncertainty also requires insight into the probabilities of occurrence of weather extremes in the future.

Taking a climate perspective on development: GIZ's climate proofing for development approach

A considerable number of development activities could be negatively affected by the impacts of climate change. Accordingly, it is important for climate change to be taken into consideration in the early stages of development plans and projects. Climate Proofing for Development is an approach consisting of specific analytical steps, which was developed by GIZ (Germany's Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit) to systematically assess climate risks and opportunities in development planning and to help identify and prioritise necessary responses. The approach has been applied in over 10 countries. It builds on the participation of different experts and stakeholders in the process and is flexible enough to be used at different levels. Lessons learned from the application of the approach in Mali, Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries include the importance of creating a common understanding of impacts of climate change in a given area, identifying the right stakeholders, finding good entry points in the planning process, and integrating the results into monitoring and evaluation procedures.

Toward design principles for joint knowledge production projects: lessons from the deepest polder of The Netherlands

In various countries, actors try to reconcile climate science and policy through joint knowledge production (JNP). While many conceptual analyses of JNP exist, empirical studies that actually try to assess JNP processes are rare. This paper aims to fill this gap through an empirical analysis of the ‘Hotspot Zuidplaspolder’ project in which scientists, policymakers and other actors collaboratively looked for ways to ‘climate proof’ existing plans for urban development in one of the deepest polders of the Netherlands. The analysis is done by identifying and explaining the credibility and salience of the knowledge produced as well as the perceived legitimacy of the JNP process. Seven success factors derived from existing literature were used in the analysis. Stakeholders appeared to evaluate this project as positive, but the analysis shows that criteria and thresholds regarding success differ between the actors involved. We found three underlying design principles that should be followed to enhance the success of future JNP projects. First, it is necessary to organize several instances for reflection on the project processes. Second, new reward structures are needed to stimulate actors to take new initiatives and come up with creative ideas. Third, projects and programs should provide room to make mistakes and learn from them. This first set of empirical design principles for JNP is useful but should be further refined and nuanced in order to better deal with the social complexity of climate change and other wicked problems.

From impacts to embodied experiences: tracing political ecology in climate change research

Political ecology has long moved on from its initial skepticism of big science engagements and cursory critiques of simplistic vulnerability approaches. Its core strengths lie in understanding the contestation of inequalities, marginalization, and injustices in access to and control over resources, neoliberal politics of environmental change, and dominant environmental narratives, while incorporating new insights from development ethics, feminist social theory, and resilience thinking. Today’s theoretical lenses allow for an understanding of causal relations in climate debates that exceed narrowly defined impact studies. I focus on four areas that exemplify shifts in engagement with adaptation, stretch themes of inquiry, and delineate zones for analysis and action: (1) reconnecting scale: multiscalar interactions, scalar dimensions of practice, and traversing scales from embodied experiences to the global intimate; (2) destabilizing gender: from gendered vulnerability and adaptive capacity to fragmented identities and intersectionality; (3) repositioning persistent inequalities: from rights to responsibilities, mutual fragility, and human security; and (4) reframing certainty: from climate proofing to limits, traps, and transformative change. Methodologically, I advocate for opening space for collective and anticipatory learning, creative envisioning, rehearsing for reality, and dynamic planning in the context of multiple and synergistic stressors, all powerful countervoices to hegemonic integrated modeling and numeric vulnerability indices.

Incremental Change, Transition or Transformation? Optimising Change Pathways for Climate Adaptation in Spatial Planning

In order to incorporate climate adaptation in spatial planning change is required, because climate change impacts the way we live. This implies that spatial planning, as the arranger of the spatial organisation and layout needs to be able to support this change. Current spatial planning is not yet well equipped to play this role. In this research article three possible routes to navigate change are explored. Incremental change is seen as a slow process, which modifies the landscape only slightly. Transition is seen as a fluent change towards a new future, which is an improved version of the existing; and transformation is seen as a change towards a future that is fundamentally different from the existing. The three pathways are compared and it is concluded that transformational change offers the best perspective in dealing with uncertain, unexpected and unprecedented futures, such as developing in times of climate change. Therefore, transformation is theoretically further elaborated and it is found that a transformational change to a new system already starts at a time when the existing system still fully operates. The change to a new system (called B in this article) therefore already started and the predecessors of B already existed. These ‘B-minuses’ of the new system can be found through network analysis, where the most intense and connective nodes are the most likely ‘B-minuses’. Alternatively B-minuses can be created through locating the areas where key-nodes and existing infrastructure can be related to existing urban functions. As illustrated in the case-study design, these principles are able to guide the design of a climate proof landscape.

Testing a rapid climate change adaptation assessment for water and sanitation providers in informal settlements in three cities in sub-Saharan Africa

Climate change is expected to affect the poor in low- and middle-income countries most, particularly in the next few decades, through increased flooding and droughts. A very large number of these poor live in informal urban settlements, where they rely on water kiosks and pit latrines and where there is usually inadequate provision for drainage. Despite an abundance of publications on climate change, there is little advice that is specific to those providing water and sanitation services to the urban poor in these countries. This paper presents a Rapid Climate Adaptation Assessment (RCAA) for water and sanitation providers that generates recommendations on climate proofing for local service providers, utilities and local governments. Overall, the RCAA converts regional climate predictions into recommendations for local adaptations. The methodology was developed through fieldwork with communities in Lusaka (Zambia), Naivasha (Kenya) and Antananarivo (Madagascar). The paper describes the methodology, summarizes the results of its application (and the implications for adaptation) and discusses its wider application and limitations. In most cases, the proposed adaptations are not new actions, and could be described as “good water management”.

The conditions for, and challenges of, adapting England’s suburbs for climate change

This paper outlines the conditions for, and challenges of, adapting suburbs in England for climate change. The paper introduces the ‘suburb’ as a spatial setting vulnerable to climate change related threats that have been largely absent from previous adaptation studies. It argues that in terms of the impacts of climate change on the daily lives of the UK’s population suburban neighbourhoods need far more attention. It sets out a typology of English suburbs (including inner-historic suburbs, pre-war garden suburbs, interwar suburbs, social housing suburbs, car suburbs, and medium-high density suburbs), and argues that these suburbs will experience both gradual changes in climate and extreme events. The changes will have impacts on ’place’ and ’people’, and modifications to the physical environment to respond to climate change will need to take place if they are to be sustainable in the future. Modifications can be at different scales: home and/or garden and/or neighbourhood. However, whether or not such modifications to the physical environment will be implemented is a function of the ‘response capacity’ in the suburb: and this is determined partly by the existing physical conditions of the suburb, and partly by economic, governance, knowledge and cultural contexts. The paper describes the conditions that underlie the response capacity in suburbs, and reveals the complexity of attempting to ‘climate proof’ some of the most established and valued parts of the English urban landscape.

Climate extremes, location vulnerability and private costs of property protection in Southwestern Cameroon

This study contends that climatic events such as storms and floods may significantly impact on cost of protection through climate proofing of housing structures along the Atlantic coastal zone in the Southwest region of Cameroon. Household level protection is purposely examined on the rationale that current protective efforts constitute the building blocks for long-term adaptation. Examining the determinants of the cost of current protection stands good stead to better inform policy to promote future adaptation to climatic stress. Hence, from a research sample of 400 households, the study estimates a function that relates household-level protection costs to their characteristics. Sixty-four percent of the homes studied have been hit at least once by strong winds, and an average of 2 times in the last 5 years, and 36% of houses have once been hit by storm surge from the sea nearby. With an average monthly income of 120.000 FCFA (US$ 285), the coastal residents spend on average 145,500 FCFA (US$ 346) in preparation against floods. The statistical estimates of the cost function reveal significant positive signs, implying that the experiences and location of homes within floodplain increases the cost of protection no matter the structural characteristics of the house. The study observes that the proximity to the coast and in flood plains significantly increases the cost of protection, and the ability to invest in preventive measures and climate proofing housing structures increase as individual income grows. The findings indicate the need for improvement of monitoring and forecasting systems for floods, intensification of awareness and proper urban planning. The policy implications are reinforced by the low incomes of most residents, as this calls for external assistance through transfer of planning skills, capital and public options to reinforce the resilience and choices made at the household level.