Abstract
In order to incorporate climate adaptation in spatial planning change is required, because climate change impacts the way we live. This implies that spatial planning, as the arranger of the spatial organisation and layout needs to be able to support this change. Current spatial planning is not yet well equipped to play this role. In this research article three possible routes to navigate change are explored. Incremental change is seen as a slow process, which modifies the landscape only slightly. Transition is seen as a fluent change towards a new future, which is an improved version of the existing; and transformation is seen as a change towards a future that is fundamentally different from the existing. The three pathways are compared and it is concluded that transformational change offers the best perspective in dealing with uncertain, unexpected and unprecedented futures, such as developing in times of climate change. Therefore, transformation is theoretically further elaborated and it is found that a transformational change to a new system already starts at a time when the existing system still fully operates. The change to a new system (called B in this article) therefore already started and the predecessors of B already existed. These ‘B-minuses’ of the new system can be found through network analysis, where the most intense and connective nodes are the most likely ‘B-minuses’. Alternatively B-minuses can be created through locating the areas where key-nodes and existing infrastructure can be related to existing urban functions. As illustrated in the case-study design, these principles are able to guide the design of a climate proof landscape.
Highlights
In recent works different scholars characterise the current timeframe as turbulent and instable.The Earth system is being pushed outside its ‘Holocene range’ into the ‘Antropocene’ [1], there is a looming crisis, which both causes and decreases the solvability of increasing instability [2]
Change can happen independently from actors (‘it just occurs’), it can take place as a response or reaction on a certain event or change is pro-active and anticpating the future, which links more with transitional and transformational change as discussed in this article
The fundamental choice to let these locations play a role in mitigating and adapting climate change can provide a transformation in the landscape, which operates as a climate proof landscape
Summary
In recent works different scholars characterise the current timeframe as turbulent and instable. The ‘ground’ is in motion” [5] These kinds of typecasts pose “the greatest challenge for research and policy ever to confront humanity” [6], major changes of current systems are necessary [7] and as a consequence, there is a need for novel and adaptive governance approaches at the global, regional and local scale [8,9,10]. Adaptation to climate change implies change from the current to an adapted situation. This change can occur in different ways: gradual and incremental, through a transition or in the form of a transformation. This article will examine the different possibilities to enhance the required change, develops a preferred pathway and applies this pathway in a case study
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