Climate Feedbacks Research Articles

Root-associated fungi and acquisitive root traits facilitate permafrost nitrogen uptake from long-term experimentally warmed tundra.

Root-associated fungi (RAF) and root traits regulate plant acquisition of nitrogen (N), which is limiting to growth in Arctic ecosystems. With anthropogenic warming, a new N source from thawing permafrost has the potential to change vegetation composition and increase productivity, influencing climate feedbacks. Yet, the impact of warming on tundra plant root traits, RAF, and access to permafrost N is uncertain. We investigated the relationships between RAF, species-specific root traits, and uptake of N from the permafrost boundary by tundra plants experimentally warmed for nearly three decades at Toolik Lake, Alaska. Warming increased acquisitive root traits of nonmycorrhizal and mycorrhizal plants. RAF community composition of ericoid (ERM) but not ectomycorrhizal (ECM) shrubs was impacted by warming and correlated with root traits. RAF taxa in the dark septate endophyte, ERM, and ECM guilds strongly correlated with permafrost N uptake for ECM and ERM shrubs. Overall, a greater proportion of variation in permafrost N uptake was related to root traits than RAF. Our findings suggest that warming Arctic ecosystems will result in interactions between roots, RAF, and newly thawed permafrost that may strongly impact feedbacks to the climate system through mechanisms of carbon and N cycling.

Understanding Hydrologic, Human, and Climate System Feedback Loops: Results of a Participatory Modeling Workshop

Groundwater depletion threatens global freshwater resources, necessitating urgent water management and policies to meet current and future needs. However, existing data-intensive approaches to assessments do not fully account for the complex human, climate, and water interactions within transboundary groundwater systems. Here, we present the design of and findings from a pilot participatory modeling workshop aiming to advance understanding of the hydrologic–human–climate feedback loops underpinning groundwater systems. Using participatory modeling tools and methods from the system dynamics tradition, we captured the mental models of researchers from water, social, data, and systems sciences. A total of 54 feedback loops were identified, demonstrating the potential of this methodology to adequately capture the complexity of groundwater systems. Based on the workshop outcomes, as an illustrative example, we discuss the value of participatory system modeling as a conceptualization tool, bridging perspectives across disciplinary silos. We further discuss how outcomes may inform future research on existing knowledge gaps around groundwater issues, and in doing so, advance interdisciplinary, use-inspired research for water decision-making more broadly.

Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models

Abstract. Limiting global warming to well below 2 ∘C by the end of the century is an ambitious target that requires immediate and unprecedented emission reductions. In the absence of sufficient near-term mitigation, this target will only be achieved by carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere later during this century, which would entail a period of temperature overshoot. Aside from the socio-economic feasibility of large-scale CDR, which remains unclear, the effects on biogeochemical cycles and climate are key to assessing CDR as a mitigation option. Changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate alter the CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and the underlying carbon reservoirs of the land and the ocean. Here, we investigate carbon cycle feedbacks under idealized and more realistic overshoot scenarios in an ensemble of Earth system models. The responses of oceanic and terrestrial carbon stocks to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and changes in surface climate (the carbon–concentration feedback and the carbon–climate feedback, quantified by the feedback metrics β and γ, respectively) show a large hysteresis. This hysteresis leads to growing absolute values of β and γ during phases of negative emissions. We find that this growth over time occurs such that the spatial patterns of feedbacks do not change significantly for individual models. We confirm that the β and γ feedback metrics are a relatively robust tool to characterize inter-model differences in feedback strength since the relative feedback strength remains largely stable between phases of positive and negative emissions and between different simulations, although exceptions exist. When the emissions become negative, we find that the model uncertainty (model disagreement) in β and γ increases more strongly than expected from the assumption that the uncertainties would accumulate linearly with time. This indicates that the model response to a change from increasing to decreasing forcing introduces an additional layer of uncertainty, at least in idealized simulations with a strong signal. We also briefly discuss the existing alternative definition of feedback metrics based on instantaneous carbon fluxes instead of carbon stocks and provide recommendations for the way forward and future model intercomparison projects.

Carbon Cycle–Climate Feedbacks in the Post-Paris World

The Paris Agreement calls for emissions reductions to limit climate change, but how will the carbon cycle change if it is successful? The land and oceans currently absorb roughly half of anthropogenic emissions, but this fraction will decline in the future. The amount of carbon that can be released before climate is mitigated depends on the amount of carbon the ocean and terrestrial ecosystems can absorb. Policy is based on model projections, but observations and theory suggest that climate effects emerging in today's climate will increase and carbon cycle tipping points may be crossed. Warming temperatures, drought, and a slowing growth rate of CO2 itself will reduce land and ocean sinks and create new sources, making carbon sequestration in forests, soils, and other land and aquatic vegetation more difficult. Observations, data-assimilative models, and prediction systems are needed for managing ongoing long-term changes to land and ocean systems after achieving net-zero emissions. ▪International agreements call for stabilizing climate at 1.5° above preindustrial, while the world is already seeing damaging extremes below that.▪If climate is stabilized near the 1.5° target, the driving force for most sinks will slow, while feedbacks from the warmer climate will continue to cause sources.▪Once emissions are reduced to net zero, carbon cycle-climate feedbacks will require observations to support ongoing active management to maintain storage.

An Overview of Anthropogenic Changes in Land Use and Land Cover, with Specific Attention to Climate Change and Unsustainable Agriculture

The worldwide need for food and the alterations in bioenergy demands associated with shifts in land use and land cover changes (LULCC) have given rise to environmental apprehensions, including global warming and climate change. There is substantial evidence indicating that we are currently witnessing human-induced transformations that could potentially result in a sixth mass extinction event. This study seeks to explore the connections between land use and land cover change (LULCC), forests, biodiversity, the carbon cycle, hydrology, climate, and various biogeochemical feedback mechanisms. These interrelationships play a crucial role in shaping future environmental outcomes and influencing climate change. Additionally, the review critically assesses existing research on the correlation between LULCC and climate, along with associated processes. The paper delves into ongoing investigations surrounding LULCC, its ecological repercussions, and its influence on the regulatory mechanisms of terrestrial ecosystems, ecosystem services, atmospheric chemistry, and the climate. It underscores the importance of developing land-use strategies rooted in a scientific evaluation of LULCC to promote sustainability and wider economic development, with a particular emphasis on addressing climate change. Global agreements and protocols also call for land use strategies that consider the implications of environmental degradation.

Inferring Northern Hemisphere Continental Warming Patterns from the Amplitude and Phase of the Seasonal Cycle in Surface Temperature

Abstract The seasonal cycle in temperature is a large and well-observed response to radiative forcing, suggesting its potential as a natural analog to human-caused climate change. Although there have been advances constraining some climate feedback parameters using seasonal observations, the seasonal cycle has not been used to inform about the local temperature sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing. In this study, we uncover a nonlinear relationship between the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle and forced temperature trends in seven CMIP5-era large ensembles across the Northern Hemisphere extratropical continents. We develop a mixture energy balance model that reproduces this relationship and reveals the unexpected finding that the phasing of the seasonal cycle—in addition to the amplitude—contains information about local temperature sensitivity to seasonal forcing over land. Using this energy balance model framework, we compare the pattern and magnitude of the seasonally inferred sensitivity of the surface temperature response to anthropogenic radiative forcing. The seasonally constrained model largely reproduces the pattern of human-caused temperature trends seen in climate models (r = 0.81, p value < 0.01), including polar amplification, but the magnitude of the response is smaller by about a factor of 3. Our results show the relevance of both phasing and amplitude for constraining patterns of local feedbacks and suggest the utility of additional research to better understand the differences in sensitivity between seasonal and greenhouse gas forcing. Significance Statement Warming in response to increased greenhouse gases is not spatially uniform across land. We wanted to understand whether the familiar seasonal cycle in temperature could provide information about climate change. We found that climate models show a strong link between the seasonal cycle and future warming: places with a larger and more delayed temperature response to the seasonal cycle in solar forcing tend to warm more across the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. A very simple model for the climate system, whose parameters are based on the seasonal cycle, captures the pattern but not the magnitude of warming. Our findings suggest that there are some similarities between the processes that control temperature change on seasonal and climate change time scales, but that we must understand the difference between seasonal and longer-term sensitivity to warming before the seasonal cycle can be used to reduce uncertainty about climate change.

Four years of climate warming reduced dark carbon fixation in coastal wetlands.

Dark carbon fixation (DCF), conducted mainly by chemoautotrophs, contributes greatly to primary production and the global carbon budget. Understanding the response of DCF process to climate warming in coastal wetlands is of great significance for model optimization and climate change prediction. Here, based on a 4-yr field warming experiment (average annual temperature increase of 1.5°C), DCF rates were observed to be significantly inhibited by warming in coastal wetlands (average annual DCF decline of 21.6%, and estimated annual loss of 0.08-1.5 Tg C yr-1 in global coastal marshes), thus causing a positive climate feedback. Under climate warming, chemoautotrophic microbial abundance and biodiversity, which were jointly affected by environmental changes such as soil organic carbon and water content, were recognized as significant drivers directly affecting DCF rates. Metagenomic analysis further revealed that climate warming may alter the pattern of DCF carbon sequestration pathways in coastal wetlands, increasing the relative importance of the 3-hydroxypropionate/4-hydroxybutyrate cycle, whereas the relative importance of the dominant chemoautotrophic carbon fixation pathways (Calvin-Benson-Bassham cycle and W-L pathway) may decrease due to warming stress. Collectively, our work uncovers the feedback mechanism of microbially mediated DCF to climate warming in coastal wetlands, and emphasizes a decrease in carbon sequestration through DCF activities in this globally important ecosystem under a warming climate.

Fire‐Induced Carbon Loss and Tree Mortality in Siberian Larch Forests

AbstractClimate change is intensifying the fire regime across Siberia, with the potential to alter carbon combustion and post‐fire carbon re‐accumulation trajectories. Few field‐based estimates of fire severity (e.g., carbon combustion and tree mortality) exist in Siberian larch forests (Larix spp.), which limits our ability to project how an intensified fire regime will affect regional and global climate feedbacks. Here, we present field‐based estimates of fire‐induced tree mortality and carbon loss in eastern Siberian larch forests. Our results suggest that fires in this region result in high tree mortality (means of 83% and 76% at Arctic and subarctic sites, respectively). In both absolute and relative terms, aboveground carbon loss following fire is higher in Siberian larch forests than in North America, but belowground carbon loss is considerably lower. This suggests fundamental differences in wildfire behavior and carbon dynamics between dominant vegetation types across the boreal biome.

Historical land use and land cover change reduced the temperature of cold extremes more than that of hot extremes

<p>The impact of historical land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the mean climate has been extensively studied, but its impact on temperature extremes is not well understood. This study investigates the biophysical effect of LULCC on temperature extremes using two sets of model simulations �C one with land use fixed at 1850 level and the other with historical LULCC from 1850 to 2014. We find that the historical LULCC has two asymmetric effects: (i) it decreases the temperature of coldest day (�C0.56 �� 0.23 K; mean �� std. error) more than that of the hottest day (�C0.21 �� 0.07 K) at the mid-latitudes of northern hemisphere; and (ii) it has a stronger impact in the mid-latitudes of northern hemisphere relative to the tropical region. These changes result largely from an indirect effect of LULCC via changes in clouds, circulations, and the downward longwave radiation. We stress that the indirect effects from climate feedback of LULCC should be considered when implementing reforestation policy.</p>

Carbon and nitrogen-based gas fluxes in subarctic ecosystems under climate warming and increased cloudiness

Increased temperatures coupled with reduced light availability due to increased cloudiness can alter the ecosystem–atmosphere exchange of trace gases in the northern high-latitude regions with important climate feedback implications.

The impact of drying on the structure and photosynthesis of boreal peatland vegetation

Boreal peatlands harbour large stores of carbon as peat below their surfaces. Climate change is expected to cause drying in northern peatlands, which will in turn impact the carbon balance of these ecosystems that is maintained by high water tables and the hydrologically sensitive plants growing there. This study aims to quantify how vegetation will be structured (I) and photosynthesize (II, III) in a future climate as emulated by long-term water level drawdown (WLD). To do this, changes in the vegetation and its photosynthesis after WLD are linked, and the response of Sphagnum mosses to periodic drought is investigated. Field measurements were done at a long-term WLD field experiment that contained a rich (mesotrophic) fen, a poor (oligotrophic) fen and a bog (ombrotrophic) site. Measurements included vegetation surveys from existing permanent sample plots and leaf-level carbon dioxide exchange measurements. For an experiment in controlled conditions peatland surface cores from this field experiment were transported to a greenhouse where the photosynthesis of lawn Sphagna during and after an experimental periodic drought was measured. The field study revealed that the response of peatland vegetation to WLD depend on peatland type. The species composition in the rich fen was the most impacted by WLD, while the bog vegetation demonstrated stability. Similarly, large increases in photosynthesis occurred following WLD on the vascular plant-covered rich fen, while changes were negligible on the Sphagnum-carpeted bog. The vegetation on the two fens shifted from an open sedge-, or sedge and Sphagnum-dominated ecosystem, to a tree-dominated ecosystem. Canopy development following WLD further accelerated vegetation changes by shading and sheltering the understorey vegetation. Vascular plants were the most likely to increase productivity from WLD as they are best suited to utilize the nutrients made available by peat mineralization, while Sphagnum moss photosynthesis was impacted little. The greenhouse study revealed that lawn Sphagnum mosses exposed to long-term WLD were more vulnerable to drought compared to those from wet sites. Large capitula typical to fen Sphagnum species appeared to be beneficial for surviving periodic drought. This work demonstrated that climate change as emulated by long-term WLD will have a large impact on the vegetation composition of northern peatlands and increase photosynthetic function of these ecosystems, fens in particular. To better predict climate feedbacks from these changes, carbon dynamics including peatland vegetation dynamics should be updated in global process models. Future research to better understand the tipping point of different peatland types after WLD in different climatic regions will help us to predict changes in these diverse and globally important systems.

The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) Initiative: scientific objectives and experimental design

Abstract. As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are melting and releasing additional freshwater into the Southern Ocean. Nonetheless, almost all existing coupled climate models have fixed ice sheets and lack the physics required to represent the dominant sources of Antarctic melt. These missing ice dynamics represent a key uncertainty that is typically unaccounted for in current global climate change projections. Previous modelling studies that have imposed additional Antarctic meltwater have demonstrated regional impacts on Southern Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice, as well as remote changes in atmospheric circulation, tropical precipitation, and global temperature. However, these previous studies have used widely varying rates of freshwater forcing, have been conducted using different climate models and configurations, and have reached differing conclusions on the magnitude of meltwater–climate feedbacks. The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative brings together a team of scientists to quantify the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater input along with key aspects of the uncertainty. In this paper, we summarize the state of knowledge on meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves to the Southern Ocean and explain the scientific objectives of our initiative. We propose a series of coupled and ocean–sea ice model experiments, including idealized meltwater experiments, historical experiments with observationally consistent meltwater input, and future scenarios driven by meltwater inputs derived from stand-alone ice sheet models. Through coordinating a multi-model ensemble of simulations using a common experimental design, open data archiving, and facilitating scientific collaboration, SOFIA aims to move the community toward better constraining our understanding of the climate system response to Antarctic melt.

Changes in soil organic carbon stocks and its physical fractions along an elevation in a subtropical mountain forest

Soil microorganisms are the drivers of soil organic carbon (SOC) mineralization, and the activities of these microorganisms are considered to play a key role in SOC dynamics. However, studies of the relationship between soil microbial carbon metabolism and SOC stocks are rare, especially in different physical fractions (e.g., particulate organic carbon (POC) fraction and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) fraction). In this study, we investigated the changing patterns of SOC stocks, POC stocks, MAOC stocks and microbial carbon metabolism (e.g., microbial growth, carbon use efficiency and biomass turnover time) at 0–20 cm along an elevational gradient in a subtropical mountain forest ecosystem. Our results showed that SOC and POC stocks increased but MAOC stocks remained stable along the elevational gradient. Soil microbial growth increased while microbial turnover time decreased with elevation. Using structural equation modeling, we found that heightened microbial growth is associated with elevated POC stocks. Moreover, MAOC stocks positively correlate with microbial growth but show negative associations with both POC stocks and soil pH. Overall, the increase in SOC stocks along the elevational gradient is primarily driven by changes in POC stocks rather than MAOC stocks. These findings underscore the importance of considering diverse soil carbon fractions and microbial activities in predicting SOC responses to elevation, offering insights into potential climate change feedbacks.

Global and Regional Climate Feedbacks in Response to Uniform Warming and Cooling

AbstractWe compare the radiative feedbacks in an ensemble of global climate models under uniform 4 K warming and cooling of sea surface temperatures. The global‐mean net feedback is less stabilizing under warming in all nine models. This results primarily from less stabilizing water vapor and extra‐tropical shortwave cloud feedbacks, partially offset by more stabilizing tropical cloud feedbacks. The zonal‐mean feedbacks are also robust across the ensemble. In the extra‐tropics, the less stabilizing shortwave cloud feedback under warming is associated with further poleward migration of the mean Southern Hemisphere jet in some models. However, additional experiments with an aquaplanet version of the HadGEM3 model suggest that the asymmetry of the jet shift is not driving the asymmetry in the cloud feedbacks at these latitudes. In the tropics, the stronger water vapor feedback under warming is offset by weaker shortwave cloud feedbacks. The result is that the ensemble spread in the differences between the global feedbacks under warming and cooling is mainly driven by their differences in the tropics. The spatial distribution of the feedbacks largely reflects the zonal‐mean behavior, although there is considerable model spread in the regional cloud feedbacks, particularly in the tropical shortwave cloud feedback. Comparison with CO2‐ and solar‐forced coupled experiments suggests that the global‐mean longwave cloud feedback is nearly invariant to warming and cooling, regardless of the nature of the forcing. The shortwave cloud feedback is generally more positive under warming in the coupled models, consistent with the uniform SST perturbation experiments.

Particle-associated denitrification is the primary source of N2O in oxic coastal waters

The heavily human-perturbed coastal oceans are hotspots of nitrous oxide (N2O) emission to the atmosphere. The processes underpinning the N2O flux, however, remain poorly understood, leading to large uncertainties in assessing global N2O budgets. Using a suite of nitrogen isotope labeling experiments, we show that multiple processes contribute to N2O production throughout the estuarine-coastal gradient, sustaining intensive N2O flux to the atmosphere. Unexpectedly, denitrification, rather than ammonia oxidation as previously assumed, constitutes the major source of N2O in well-oxygenated coastal waters. Size-fractionated manipulation experiments with gene analysis further reveal niche partitioning of ammonia oxidizers and denitrifiers across the particle size spectrum; denitrification dominated on large particles and ammonia oxidizers on small particles. Total N2O production rate increases with substrate and particle concentrations, suggesting a crucial interplay between nutrients and particles in controlling N2O production. The controlling factors identified here may help understand climate feedback mechanisms between human activity and coastal oceans.

Permafrost trapped natural gas in Svalbard, Norway

Permafrost is widespread in the High Arctic, including the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard. The uppermost permafrost intervals have been well studied, but the processes at its base and the impacts of the underlying geology have been largely overlooked. More than a century of coal, hydrocarbon, and scientific drilling through the permafrost in Svalbard shows that accumulations of natural gas trapped at the base of permafrost are common. These accumulations exist in several stratigraphic intervals throughout Svalbard and show both thermogenic and biogenic origins. The gas, combined with the relatively young permafrost age, is evidence of ongoing gas migration throughout Svalbard. The accumulation sizes are uncertain, but one case demonstrably produced several million cubic metres of gas over 8 years. Heavier gas encountered in two boreholes on Hopen may be situated in the gas hydrate stability zone. While permafrost is demonstrably ice-saturated and acting as seal to gas in lowland areas, in the highlands permafrost is more complex and often dry and permeable. Svalbard shares a similar geological and glacial history with much of the Circum-Arctic, suggesting that sub-permafrost gas accumulations are regionally common. With permafrost thawing in the Arctic, there is a risk that the impacts of releasing of methane trapped beneath permafrost will lead to positive climatic feedback effects.

Rapid Climate Links Between High Northern Latitudes and Tropical Southeast Asia Over the Last 40 ka

AbstractThe climate response of tropical Southeast Asia to abrupt climate change originating from high northern latitudes remains poorly understood. Here, marine sediments recovered from the Northwest Borneo Trough are analyzed to trace variations in terrigenous material composition associated with sea level and palaeoflood activities over the past 40 ka. We describe for the first time the influence of sea level change on terrigenous deposition from a tropical island with small mountainous rivers surrounded by narrow continental shelves and the coupling between North Atlantic dynamics and climate feedbacks in tropical Southeast Asia during the Dansgaard‐Oeschger stadials. This study demonstrates that climate oscillations occurring at high northern latitudes can be transmitted to tropical Southeast Asia through the functions of sea level, the East Asian winter monsoon and the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Such information is fundamental to correctly assessing future sea level rise and flood risks in tropical Southeast Asia.

Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS): A customizable dataset of emulated Earth System Model output

Emulation through pattern scaling is a well-established method of rapidly producing climate fields (like temperature or precipitation) from existing Earth System Model (ESM) output that, while inaccurate, is often useful for a variety of downstream purposes. Conducting pattern scaling has historically been a laborious process, in large part due to the increasing volume of ESM output data that has often required downloading and storing locally to train on. Here we describe the Pangeo-Enabled ESM Pattern Scaling (PEEPS) dataset, a repository of trained annual and monthly patterns from CMIP6 outputs. This manuscript describes and validates these updated patterns so that users can save effort calculating and reporting error statistics in manuscripts focused on the use of patterns. The trained patterns are available as NetCDF files on Zenodo for ease of use in the impact community, and are reproducible with the code provided via GitHub in both Jupyter notebook and Python script formats. Because all training data for the PEEPS data set is cloud-based, users do not need to download and house the ESM output data to reproduce the patterns in the zenodo archive, should that be more efficient. Validating the PEEPS data set on the CMIP6 archive for annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, and near-surface relative humidity, pattern scaling performs well over a variety of future scenarios except for regions in which there are strong, potentially nonlinear climate feedbacks. Although pattern scaling is normally conducted on annual mean ESM output data, it works equally well on monthly mean ESM output data. We identify several downstream applications of the PEEPS data set, including impacts assessment and evaluating certain types of Earth system uncertainties.

Widespread deepening of the active layer in northern permafrost regions from 2003 to 2020

The changing thermal state of permafrost is an important indicator of climate change in northern high latitude ecosystems. The seasonally thawed soil active layer thickness (ALT) overlying permafrost may be deepening as a consequence of enhanced polar warming and widespread permafrost thaw in northern permafrost regions (NPRs). The associated increase in ALT may have cascading effects on ecological and hydrological processes that impact climate feedback. However, past NPR studies have only provided a limited understanding of the spatially continuous patterns and trends of ALT due to a lack of long-term high spatial resolution ALT data across the NPR. Using a suite of observational biophysical variables and machine learning (ML) techniques trained with available in situ ALT network measurements (n = 2966 site-years), we produced annual estimates of ALT at 1 km resolution over the NPR from 2003 to 2020. Our ML-derived ALT dataset showed high accuracy (R 2 = 0.97) and low bias when compared with in situ ALT observations. We found the ALT distribution to be most strongly affected by local soil properties, followed by topographic elevation and land surface temperatures. Pair-wise site-level evaluation between our data-driven ALT with Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring data indicated that about 80% of sites had a deepening ALT trend from 2003 to 2020. Based on our long-term gridded ALT data, about 65% of the NPR showed a deepening ALT trend, while the entire NPR showed a mean deepening trend of 0.11 ± 0.35 cm yr−1 [25%–75% quantile: (−0.035, 0.204) cm yr−1]. The estimated ALT trends were also sensitive to fire disturbance. Our new gridded ALT product provides an observationally constrained, updated understanding of the progression of thawing and the thermal state of permafrost in the NPR, as well as the underlying environmental drivers of these trends.

Revisiting the Global Energy Budget Dynamics with a Multivariate Earth Energy Balance Model to Account for the Warming Pattern Effect

Abstract Climate feedbacks are sensitive to the geographical distribution of sea surface temperature (SST). This sensitivity, called the pattern effect, affects the amplitude of the Earth radiative response to anomalies in global mean surface temperature (GMST) and thus is essential in shaping the global energy budget dynamics. Zero-dimensional energy balance models (EBMs) are the simplest representation of the global energy budget dynamics. Many only depend on GMST anomalies and cannot account for the pattern effect explicitly. In EBMs, the pattern effect leads to apparent variations of the global climate feedback parameter λ. Assuming a variable λ in EBMs enables them to more accurately reproduce AOGCM simulations of the GMST anomalies but it leads to variations in λ of >+15%. These large variations mean λ is not a constant and the Taylor expansion underpinning EBMs’ formulation does not hold, casting doubts on the physical grounding of such EBMs. Here we propose a new EBM based on a multivariate linear Earth radiative response, which depends on both the GMST and the surface warming pattern. The resulting multilinear EBM accurately reproduces AOGCM simulations of anomalies in Earth radiative response and GMST under abrupt 4xCO2 forcing. When interpreted in terms of variable λ, the multivariate EBM leads to small variations in λ that are physically consistent with the underpinning Taylor expansion. We analyze with the multivariate framework the variations of the planetary heat uptake N as a function of the GMST and the pattern of warming through a 3D generalization of the Gregory plot. We show that the apparent nonlinear behavior of the radiative response of the Earth against GMST seen in classical monovariate EBMs (and in classical Gregory plots) can actually be explained by a bilinear dependance of the radiative response of the Earth on the GMST and the pattern of warming. The multivariate EBM further provides an explicit dependence of the global energy budget on the pattern of warming and on the climate state. It has important consequences on the expression of the climate sensitivity.