Climate Exposure Research Articles

Influence of Tropical Climate Exposure on the Mechanical Properties of rHDPE Composites reinforced by Zalacca Midrib Fibers

Influence of Tropical Climate Exposure on the Mechanical Properties of rHDPE Composites reinforced by Zalacca Midrib Fibers

Climate Resilience and Adaptation in West African Oyster Fisheries: An Expert-Based Assessment of the Vulnerability of the Oyster Crassostrea tulipa to Climate Change

Globally, over 85% of oyster reefs have been lost, and the combined effects of climate change, ocean acidification, and environmental degradation, including pollution and mangrove overharvesting, could further reduce global oyster fisheries in the coming decades. To understand the level of impact of climate change on the oyster fishery in West Africa, an expert-based vulnerability assessment to climate change was conducted for the West African mangrove oyster (Crassostrea tulipa, Lamarck 1819). Using a combination of the exposure of the oyster to climatic stressors (estuarine temperature, salinity, river flow, surface run-off, sea level rise, and estuarine circulation) together with an assessment of sensitivity to these stressors, we estimate the overall vulnerability of C. tulipa to climate change. A very high overall climate vulnerability score of 12 on a scale of 16 was calculated for C. tulipa. While the overall climate exposure score in the West African coastal region remained high, the high sensitivity of C. tulipa to hydrographic conditions of its habitat, in particular salinity, coupled with its sessile and habitat-specific nature, pushed the overall vulnerability to very high. Early life history settlement requirements, adult mobility, and sensitivity to salinity were the three most important biological and sensitivity attributes that determined the vulnerability score. By leaving each of these three sensitivity attributes out of the analysis, the overall vulnerability score was reduced to 9 (i.e., from very high to high). A negative directional effect of climate change, coupled with a low potential for change in distribution, threatens the C. tulipa fishery in a long-term adverse climate scenario. We recommend management efforts that incorporate climate resilience and adaptation practices to prioritize recruitment success, as well as the development of breeding lines with climate-resilient traits.

A comparative study of farming and fishing households’ livelihood vulnerability in the Niger Delta, Nigeria

Multiple stressors such as climate shocks, environmental degradation and resource conflicts may pose a great challenge for African communities struggling to adapt to climate change. Yet, there is limited empirical evidence on the differential vulnerabilities of farming and fishing households to these triple stressors. Using a household survey in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, we compare the vulnerability of farming and fishing households. We find that the farming households were more exposed to the triple stressors while the fishing households were more sensitive to the triple stressors owing to their poor physical and natural asset base. In addition, we find that the two groups share similar adaptive capacity and composite vulnerability scores. Overall, interventions such as credit schemes can enable fishing households to address their livelihood disruptions and build their asset endowment, and climate-responsive interventions such as early warning systems can partly reduce the climate exposure of farming households.

Statistically based soil-climate exposure scenarios for aquatic pesticide fate modeling and exposure assessment in the Pampa Region of Argentina.

Although pesticides are used intensively in Argentina's Pampa region, the possibility of performing an environmental risk assessment (ERA) remains limited due to the absence of readily available databases to run pesticide fate models and the lack of standardized realistic worst-case scenarios. The aim of the present study was to further advance capacities for performing probabilistic ERAs in the Pampa region by dividing and parameterizing the region into functional soil-climate mapping units (SCU) and defining statistically based, worst-case soil-climate exposure scenarios. Results obtained demonstrate that the SCU selected for a specific modeling exercise should depend on the dissociation constant (Kd ) of the pesticide evaluated and whether short- or long-term pesticide fate modeling and risk assessment are needed. Four regionally representative SCUs were specifically identified for modeling the fate of pesticides with low, high, and intermediate values of Kd . Fate modeling of pesticides with an intermediate Kd requires the use of a different SCU for short- versus long-term pesticide modeling, whereas this distinction is not necessary for pesticides with both low and high Kd . The current definition of realistic, worst-case, soil-climate scenarios represents a crucial step toward better pesticide fate modeling and exposure assessment in Argentina's Pampa region. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:626-637. © 2022 SETAC.

The complementary management of large-scale hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power systems reinforces resilience to climate change

The complementary operation of hydro-photovoltaic (PV) hybrid power systems has become a popular and promising management way in modern power systems. Since hydropower and PV power depend strongly on precipitation and solar energy, previous studies have recognized that climate change can affect the stability of standalone hydro or PV power and can threaten energy security. However, the vast majority of research studies stop at the impact assessment per se and are unexpanded to hybrid power systems. The objective of this study was to explore how the complementary operation of this integrated system could be affected by climate change and identify its resilience to climate change. A “climate-hydrology-operation” bottom-up framework was developed to determine the acceptable range of climate change in climatic exposure space where the system can succeed to operate. China’s Longyangxia hydro-PV hybrid power system was selected as the study site. Our analysis revealed that (1) the complementary operation of hydro and PV power reinforces the resilience of renewable energy sources to climate change since the range in climatic exposure space leading to system success is increased; (2) the management scheme of complementary operation shows superiority compared to separate operation according to stress tests in GCMs prediction information; and (3) the complementarity of the two sources remains stable regardless of climate change—that is, if precipitation decreases then sunshine duration increases, and evaporation increases while radiation increases—thereby allowing for a more consistent level of power generation than independent hydropower and PV plant. We propose, therefore, that managing hydropower and PV resources in a complementary manner can improve the resilience of hydro-PV hybrid power systems to climate change and can lead to more effective power benefits.

Revisiting talus and free-air temperatures after 50 years of change at an American pika (Ochotona princeps) study site in the Southern Rockies

Climate change in mountain regions has exposed high-elevation species to rapidly changing temperatures. Although climate exposure can be reduced in certain microclimates, the quality of microclimatic refugia might also degrade with climate change. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) often inhabits high elevations, and is considered climate-sensitive due to its narrow thermal tolerance and recent extirpations in some warmer portions of its range. Pikas behaviorally thermoregulate by taking refuge in the subsurface microclimates found in taluses and other rocky habitats, where daily thermal fluctuations are attenuated and somewhat decoupled from free-air temperatures. Changes in microclimate might reduce the efficacy of this behavioral thermoregulation. This study compares recent (2009–2021) subsurface temperatures at a long-term pika study site with a rare instance of historical (1963–1964) data from the same location. We also place historical and recent microclimates in context using long-term data on free-air temperatures from the same area. Recent free-air temperatures were often warmer than historical records, and subsurface temperatures exhibited even stronger warming between periods. Temperatures measured in the talus were often dramatically warmer in recent records, especially at the deeper of two subsurface sensor placements in this study. Winter months showed the greatest changes in both talus and free-air temperatures. Differences between historical and recent microclimates were not explained by the precise placement of sensors, as recent temperatures were similar across a wide variety of subsurface placements, and temporal changes in free-air temperatures at the historical study site were also reflected in data from nearby weather stations. Together, these results suggest that subsurface microclimates important for pika thermoregulation have changed over the past few decades, perhaps even faster than observed changes in free-air temperatures. The generality of these results and their potential ramifications for ecosystem processes and services should be explored.

A life course epidemiology approach to climate extremes and human health

A life course epidemiology approach to climate extremes and human health

The MicroClimate Screen – A microscale climate exposure system for assessing the effect of CO2, temperature and UV on marine microalgae

Global warming and anthropogenic activities are changing the ocean, inducing profound impacts on marine life and ecosystems from changing physical and chemical factors in and above the water column. Rising surface temperatures, ocean acidification, and seasonal variations in UV radiation (UVR), modulated by water clarity and sea-ice extent, affect life cycles of the marine food-web, and directly or indirectly also the global carbon fixation. Diatoms, pelagic microalgae that are responsible for 40% of the marine productivity, have limited capability to avoid exposure to changing ocean conditions, and hence, highly relevant for model studies of the influence of climate change on growth and productivity in the marine environment. A plate-based high-throughput exposure system was constructed to assess the biological effects from relevant climate change factors on the diatom Skeletonema pseudocostatum, conducted as a chronic toxicity tests over 72 h periods. The exposure system consisted of a micro-climate unit and a light-exposure unit, enabling accurate regulation of pCO2, temperature, UVR and photosynthetic active radiation (PAR). Changes in physical factors, including pH, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), temperature and salinity in the medium, as well as reduction in growth were characterised to demonstrate performance of the micro exposure system. The results demonstrate that the exposure system successfully simulated ocean acidification and could maintain stable temperature (CV < 3%), PAR and UVR irradiance (CV < 8%). Growth inhibition responses were typically dose-dependent and verified that the micro-exposure system could be used to assess effects and adaptions to climate-relevant stressors.

Key Areas of Ecological Restoration in Inner Mongolia Based on Ecosystem Vulnerability and Ecosystem Service

Inner Mongolia is located in China’s arid and semi-arid regions, with sensitive and fragile ecosystems at risk of increased desertification, necessitating ecological restoration. However, economic resources for large-scale ecological restoration are often scarce, so it is vital to identify key areas for ecological restoration. Previous desertification research has focused mainly on the condition and changes in soil or vegetation. However, not all changes in soil or vegetation directly impact humans. New perspectives are increasingly needed to bridge the gap between biophysical and human well-being. We construct a framework to identify priority restoration areas based on ecosystem services and ecosystem vulnerability over a long time series. The results show that: (1) soil conservation services in northeast and southwest Inner Mongolia have degraded. Sand fixation services in central and eastern Inner Mongolia have shown a degradation trend. Habitat quality has been generally stable and sporadic in the past 20 years. (2) The areas with higher ecosystem vulnerability are concentrated in the northeast, mainly due to higher climate exposure and climate sensitivity but relatively lower climate resilience in the northeast. (3) Compared with the results of ecological restoration areas identified based on the trends of traditional vegetation indicators (fractional vegetation cover and net primary productivity), we found a greater proportion of land in northeastern Inner Mongolia in need of restoration. Additionally, there was identified a decreased restoration proportion in southwestern Inner Mongolia to ensure the self-restoration and regulation of desert ecosystems, which is conducive to realizing nature-based solutions.

Pesticides in a warmer world: Effects of glyphosate and warming across insect life stages

Glyphosate (GLY) is a broad-spectrum herbicide that is the most commonly applied pesticide in terrestrial ecosystems in the U.S. and, potentially, worldwide. However, the combined effects of warming associated with climate change and exposure to GLY and GLY-based formulations (GBFs) on terrestrial animals are poorly understood. Animals progress through several life stages (e.g., embryonic, larval, and juvenile stages) that may exhibit different sensitivities to stressors. Therefore, we factorially manipulated temperature and GLY/GBF exposure in the variable field cricket (Gryllus lineaticeps) during two life stages—nymphal development and adulthood—and examined key animal traits, such as developmental rate, body size, food consumption, reproductive investment, and lifespan. A thermal environment simulating future climate warming obligated several costs to fitness-related traits. For example, warming experienced during nymphal development reduced survival, adult body mass and size, and investment into flight capacity and reproduction. Warming experienced by adults reduced lifespan and growth rate. Alternatively, the effects of GBF exposure were more subtle, often context-dependent (e.g., effects were only detected in one sex or temperature regime), and were stronger during adult exposure relative to exposure during development. There was evidence of additive costs of warming and GBF exposure to rates of feeding and growth in adults. Yet, the negative effect of GBF exposure to adult lifespan did not occur in warming conditions, suggesting that ongoing climate change may obscure some of the costs of GBFs to non-target organisms. The effects of GLY alone (i.e., in the absence of proprietary surfactants found in commercial formulations) were non-existent. Animals will be increasingly exposed to warming and GBFs, and our results indicate that GBF exposure and warming can entail additive costs for an animal taxon (insects) that plays critical roles in terrestrial ecosystems.

Impacts of Field and Laboratory Long-Term Aging on Asphalt Binders

Asphalt binder aging accelerates cracking of flexible pavement. Quantifying the extent of binder aging allows the formulation and selection of appropriate binders for flexible pavement applications. Asphalt binder aging depends on climatic exposure, asphalt concrete field-surface density, and binder chemistry. The aim of this work was to select a laboratory-aging protocol to represent realistic field aging in Illinois. Binders were extracted from field cores aged from eight to 31 years. Extracted binders were tested for rheology and chemical characteristics. Small- and large-strain rheological parameters were determined. In addition, chemical functional groups and molecular weight distribution of extracted binders were evaluated. Effects of aging across pavement depth were also investigated. Double pressure-aging vessel (PAV) was identified as a suitable laboratory long-term aging protocol to represent eight to 12 years of aging for flexible pavements in Illinois. Thresholds were proposed for selected small- and large-strain rheological parameters representing realistic field aging. These thresholds may be used for binder selection and procurement to ensure the binder’s long-term performance. Furthermore, chemical analysis on extracted binders showed that only specific carbonyl functional groups are affected by field aging.

Climate risk and bank liquidity creation: International evidence

This study examines the impact of climate risk on bank liquidity creation in 56 countries over the period 1995–2012. Specifically, it investigates whether the relationship between climate risk and bank liquidity creation varies by bank and country characteristics. The results reveal that climate sensitivity and exposure have negative impacts on overall liquidity creation, whereas climate adaptation has positive effects. These effects are more pronounced for larger banks with lower capital, banks located in lower-GDP and developing countries, and those in Asia. The results suggest that policymakers should exercise caution when formulating and implementing climate-related strategies, as these can influence liquidity creation, which in turn can affect macroeconomic stability.

Calculation of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Nakdong Watersheds Considering Non-Point Pollution Sources

As a response to climate change, South Korea has established its third National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (2021–2025) alongside the local governments’ plans. In this study, proxy variables in 22 sub-watersheds of the Nakdong River, Korea were used to investigate climate exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and non-point pollution in sub-watersheds, a climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) was established, and the vulnerability of each sub-watershed in the Nakdong River was evaluated. Climate exposure was highest in the Nakdong Estuary sub-watershed (75.5–81.7) and lowest in the Geumhogang sub-watershed (21.1–28.1). Sensitivity was highest (55.7) in the Nakdong Miryang sub-watershed and lowest (19.6) in the Habcheon dam sub-watershed. Adaptive capacity and the resulting CCVI were highest in the Geumhogang sub-watershed (96.2 and 66.2–67.9, respectively) and lowest in the Wicheon sub-watershed (2.61 and 18.5–20.4, respectively), indicating low and high vulnerabilities to climate change, respectively. The study revealed that the high CCVI sensitivity was due to adaptive capacity. These findings can help establish rational climate change response plans for regional water resource management. To assess climate change vulnerability more accurately, regional bias can be prevented by considering various human factors, including resources, budget, and facilities.

Future Climate Change Conditions May Compromise Metabolic Performance in Juveniles of the Mud Crab Scylla serrata

Research characterising the effects of future climate change on the marine environment remains heavily focussed on that of temperate regions and organisms. Furthermore, little is known of these effects on the early life stages of many marine species. Tropical regions are already experiencing an increase in sea surface temperature and decrease in sea surface salinity, conditions favoured by pathogenic bacteria such as Vibrio spp. The early life stages of crabs are known to be particularly vulnerable to both the direct physiological effects of climate change and exposure to harmful microorganisms, yet there are limited data on these effects on juveniles of many tropical crustacean species. This study assessed the metabolic responses of mud crab (Scylla serrata) juveniles to warming and/or freshening in the presence or absence of pathogenic bacteria in southwest India. Juvenile crabs were exposed to either ambient (28 °C/30 PSU) or one of three projected climate change regimes (28 °C/20 PSU (freshening), 32 °C/30 PSU (warming), 32 °C/20 PSU (warming + freshening)) for 10 days, in either the presence or absence of the pathogenic bacteria Vibrio parahaemolyticus. Results show that simulated climate change conditions, especially freshening, caused a significant increase in oxygen consumption rates (MO2), and that these were further increased when juveniles were exposed to V. parahaemolyticus. These results suggest that the effects of future climate change conditions could have significant implications for the conservation of wild stocks and commercial farming of this species in South Asia.

Planning for Adaptation: A System Approach to Understand the Value Chain's Role in Supporting Smallholder Coffee Farmers' Adaptive Capacity in Peru

Coffee is a major global commodity whose production is sustained by and provides livelihoods for millions of smallholder families in the tropics. However, it is highly sensitive to climate change and the climate risk family farmer's face from direct impacts on coffee production are often compounded by further impacts on the physical and social landscapes and infrastructure. We examine the vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity) of smallholder coffee farmers in northeastern Peru via the lens of their central participation in a value chain that mediates access to livelihood assets, affecting their adaptive capacity and aspects of their sensitivity. Using a staged and participatory, mixed-methods approach, we sought to understand the territorial climate exposure, the structure of the regional value chain and role of different actors in supporting farmer adaptive capacity, and assess the vulnerability of the entire value chain (including other actors in addition to farmers). We found heterogeneity not only in the potential impact of climate change on coffee production, future adaptation needs and vulnerability of farmers across the territory (among elevational zones and regions), but in the distribution of vulnerability among value chain actors. Farmers are the most vulnerable actors, simultaneously the most sensitive and with the lowest adaptive capacity, issues stemming from their strong territorial dependence and pre-existing social and economic asymmetries with actors in the coffee value chain who are not as territorially dependent (e.g., private companies). We make the case that supporting the adaptation of smallholder farmers in the study region requires moving beyond a value-chain approach to a territorial systems perspective that more intentionally involves those actors with stronger, locally vested interests (e.g., local governments and institutions) in their adaptation and requires the strengthening capacities of these actors in various areas.

Evaluating Climatic Influences on the Technical Performance of Built Infrastructure Assets

Asset performance evaluations serve as a benchmark that can be used to make asset manufacturer selection decisions, i.e., choosing the brand of manufacturer that provides the highest performance among all brand competitors. Understanding the environmental conditions to which assets are subjected provides facility managers another data point to understand asset performance. This research builds upon a previously published performance-based manufacturer selection metric by investigating the linkage between asset performance and exposure to local climate, using chiller and air handler data from 20 United States Air Force installations. The link between environmental factors such as Heating Degree Days (HDD); Cooling Degree Days (CDD); Solar Irradiance; and a variable that accounts for relative humidity, and asset performance is investigated using analysis of variance (ANOVA) testing and correlation coefficients. The results reveal that most assets, regardless of location, (1) possess a moderate to strong performance; and (2) cumulative climate exposure and asset manufacturer selection influence asset performance. This work highlights the need for facility managers to consider the influence of climate on technical performance and use it as a decision criterion in manufacturer selection.

Commentary on Weinberger et al.: Tobacco and cannabis policies as drivers of nicotine and cannabis co-use - research and measurement implications to move the field forward.

Commentary on Weinberger et al.: Tobacco and cannabis policies as drivers of nicotine and cannabis co-use - research and measurement implications to move the field forward.

The Childhood Origins of Climate-Induced Mobility and Immobility.

The literature on climate exposures and human migration has focused largely on assessing short-term responses to temperature and precipitation shocks. In this paper, we suggest that this common coping strategies model can be extended to account for mechanisms that link environmental conditions to migration behavior over longer periods of time. We argue that early-life climate exposures may affect the likelihood of migration from childhood through early adulthood by influencing parental migration, community migration networks, human capital development, and decisions about household resource allocation, all of which are correlates of geographic mobility. After developing this conceptual framework, we evaluate the corresponding hypotheses using a big data approach, analyzing 20 million individual georeferenced records from 81 censuses implemented across 31 countries in tropical Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. For each world region, we estimate regression models that predict lifetime migration (a change in residence between birth and ages 30-39) as a function of temperature and precipitation anomalies in early life, defined as the year prior to birth through age four. Results suggest that early-life climate is systematically associated with changes in the probability of lifetime migration in most regions of the tropics, with the largest effects observed in sub-Saharan Africa. In East and Southern Africa, the effects of temperature shocks vary by sex and educational attainment and in a manner that suggests women and those of lower socioeconomic status are most vulnerable. Finally, we compare our main results with models using alternative measures of climate exposures. This comparison suggests climate exposures during the prenatal period and first few years of life are particularly (but not exclusively) salient for lifetime migration, which is most consistent with the hypothesized human capital mechanism.

Do one-hour exposures provide a valid assessment of physiological heat strain?

For time- and cost-efficient heat stress assessment procedures at workplaces or in experimental studies, short-time measurement periods (e.g. 1 h) are sometimes employed in lieu of whole shift observations assuming that the short time period will provide valid figures of equilibrium physiological responses. We studied the influence of exposure duration on physiological heat strain considering the modifying effects of clothing and heat acclimation using a database of 564 climatic chamber exposures performed by 28 young males under heat stress conditions with widely varying air temperature and humidity levels. We compared heart rates, rectal and mean skin temperatures, and sweat rates recorded after 1 h with the values averaged over the third hour of exposure representing steady-state. One-hour measurements agreed with equilibrium values for rather low strain levels only, with heart rates below 100 bpm and rectal temperatures below 37.2 °C. On average, one-hour values underestimated all heat strain parameters. This underestimation error was only moderately influenced by clothing and heat acclimation status, but increased significantly with air temperature and humidity, reaching considerable magnitude under hot-humid conditions associated with elevated heat strain. Regression analyses of the prediction error depending on the equilibrium response revealed that underestimation increased with equilibrium strain level. This correlation was strongest for heart rate and core temperature, and was shown to potentially cause a misclassification of hazardous working conditions as safe by given heat strain criteria.Practical Relevance: The severe underestimation of heat strain due to short measurement periods, as observed under hot-humid conditions and/or when associated with high physiological strain, will immediately impact the exposed personnel, but will also inform occupational health professionals and standard writers regarding the heat stress assessment for work shifts with high activity levels or with protective clothing.

The Impacts and Adaptation of Climate Extremes on the Power System: Insights from the Texas Power Outage Caused by Extreme Cold Wave

Along with the aggravation of climate change, various weather and climate extreme events (abbreviated as climate extremes) are becoming more frequent. During the transition to the use of clean energy, the power system will show increasingly prominent features such as high ratio of clean energy, high ratio of electrification, and a high proportion of electric and electronic equipment, coupled with summer and winter load peaks. Against this backdrop, this paper studies the impacts of climate extremes on the power system using the Texas power outage as an example, and proposes general adaptation measures to cope with climate extremes. For a start, this paper reviews the power outage in Texas caused by an extreme cold wave across the North America in 2021, and conducts an in-depth analysis of its causes. Then, based on the theoretical framework of disaster risk management, this paper analyzes the weather and climate disaster risks, extreme events, exposure, and vulnerability faced by the power system in the context of climate change and extreme events. Finally, in order to build a new power system, this paper establishes an overall framework for the power system to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and summarizes the key techniques involved in power generation, transmission, distribution, and consumption, as well as key technologies in the fields of power supply, power grid, power load, and energy storage, and the strategies and measures for addressing climate change.