The complementary management of large-scale hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power systems reinforces resilience to climate change

Abstract

• A bottom-up model was established to identify the capacity of a hybrid power system to adapting climate change. • The complementary operation of hydro/PV power is an effective way to reinforce resilience to climate change. • The complementary relationship of system-related climate variables in different time scales was analyzed. The complementary operation of hydro-photovoltaic (PV) hybrid power systems has become a popular and promising management way in modern power systems. Since hydropower and PV power depend strongly on precipitation and solar energy, previous studies have recognized that climate change can affect the stability of standalone hydro or PV power and can threaten energy security. However, the vast majority of research studies stop at the impact assessment per se and are unexpanded to hybrid power systems. The objective of this study was to explore how the complementary operation of this integrated system could be affected by climate change and identify its resilience to climate change. A “climate-hydrology-operation” bottom-up framework was developed to determine the acceptable range of climate change in climatic exposure space where the system can succeed to operate. China’s Longyangxia hydro-PV hybrid power system was selected as the study site. Our analysis revealed that (1) the complementary operation of hydro and PV power reinforces the resilience of renewable energy sources to climate change since the range in climatic exposure space leading to system success is increased; (2) the management scheme of complementary operation shows superiority compared to separate operation according to stress tests in GCMs prediction information; and (3) the complementarity of the two sources remains stable regardless of climate change—that is, if precipitation decreases then sunshine duration increases, and evaporation increases while radiation increases—thereby allowing for a more consistent level of power generation than independent hydropower and PV plant. We propose, therefore, that managing hydropower and PV resources in a complementary manner can improve the resilience of hydro-PV hybrid power systems to climate change and can lead to more effective power benefits.