Climate Convention Research Articles

Die Rolle der Wälder im Protokoll von Kyoto – Abschätzung ihres Kohlenstoffvorrates gestützt auf Satellitendaten | The role of the forest in the Kyoto Protocol – Estimation of carbon reserve using satellite data

Switzerland became a signatory to the climate convention in 1993 and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2003. This means that in the period from 2008 to 2012 the country is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 8%compared to 1990. Switzerland has to deposit its annual greenhouse gas inventory with the Climate Convention Secretariat. This also includes accounts of the CO2 of the forest. Within the framework of its Data User Programme the European Space Agency (ESA) has offered to test the use of its Remote Collected Data System for forest reporting for the Kyoto Protocol. By participating in this project Switzerland aims to examine in how far it can automate its annual forest CO2 balance using objective data taken directly from the satellite.

Global Triptych: a bottom-up approach for the differentiation of commitments under the Climate Convention

In the coming years the international debate on commitments for the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol will intensify. In this study, the Global Triptych approach is put forward as an input for international decision-making concerning the differentiation of commitments by 2020. It is a sector- and technology-oriented approach, and we calculated quantitative emission limitation objectives and global emissions starting from bottomup information on long-term reduction opportunities. Central to the calculations were long-term sustainability targets for the year 2050, formulated for (1) energy efficiency in the energy-intensive industry, (2) greenhouse gas intensity of electricity production, and (3) per capita emissions in the domestic sectors. Calculated emission limitation objectives for 13 world regions ranged from about −30% to more than +200%. The ranking of world regions in the differentiation turned out to be independent of the levels chosen for the long-term sustainability targets. The objectives seem sufficient to maintain the long-term possibility of stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at about 550 ppm CO2-eq, but will require severe emission reductions. These may be relaxed to a certain degree if stabilization at 650 ppm CO2-eq is aimed for. We conclude that the bottom-up character of the approach made it possible to examine important basic principles of the Climate Convention, including equity, the needs and circumstances of developing countries, cost-effectiveness and sustainable development.

Global Triptych: a bottom-up approach for the differentiation of commitments under the Climate Convention

Global Triptych: a bottom-up approach for the differentiation of commitments under the Climate Convention

The role of carbon sequestration and the tonne-year approach in fulfilling the objective of climate convention

Carbon can be sequestered from the atmosphere to forests in order to lower the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Tonne-years of sequestered carbon have been suggested to be used as a measure of global warming impact for these projects of finite lifetimes. It is illustrated here by simplified example cases that the objective of the stabilisation of the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations expressed in the UN Climate convention and the tonne-year approach can be in contradiction. Tonne-years generated by the project can indicate that carbon sequestration helps in the mitigation of climate change even when the impact of the project on the CO2 concentration is that concentration increases. Hence, the use of the tonne-years might waste resources of fulfilling the objective of the convention. The studied example cases are closely related to the IPCC estimates on global forestation potentials by 2050. It is also illustrated that the use of bioenergy from the reforested areas to replace fossil fuels can in the long term contribute more effectively to the control of carbon dioxide concentrations than permanent sequestration of carbon to forests. However, the estimated benefits depend on the time frame considered, whether we are interested in the decadal scale of controlling of the rate of climate change or in the centennial scale of controlling or halting the climate change.

Leaders, pushers and laggards in the making of the climate regime

The primary motivation for this paper is to illuminate the role of leadership exerted by individuals, institutions and nation-states at various stages of the global climate change regime. Four forms of leadership: intellectual, instrumental, power-based, and directional, are identified. Next, theoretical claims about the dominance of particular forms of leadership at particular stages of regime formation are empirically tested by examining the agenda setting and negotiation phases of the climate regime. This analysis tends to support theoretical claims that intellectual leadership is particularly prominent during agenda setting, but evidence to support the influence of entrepreneurial leaders during negotiations is mixed at best for the climate regime. Structural or power based leadership meanwhile was largely absent during agenda setting of the climate regime but has been in clear evidence through the negotiations of the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol.

Policy in Transition: New Framework for Russia's Climate Policy

In 2000s, Russia entered the second round of radical reforms of its economic and political system. These changes affect the institutions of the macro- and microeconomic policy, of the energy policy, as well as the institutions of the climate policy. Thus, the framework is currently being built in Russia within which the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol are being and will be implemented. Success, or failure, in Russia's interactions with the international community in implementation of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol would depend, particularly, on whether it would be able to establish renovated climate policy institutions in the nearest future. Main provisions of the Kyoto Protocol open good perspectives for the climate policy of Russia. For these favourable perspectives to become a reality, Russia will have to accomplish quite a lot at the domestic, national level. Here, Russia is facing some serious problems. Among them are recently emerged problems with ratification of Kyoto Protocol.

Market system to curtail emission magnitudes evolved from electricity generation

The recent resolution of the seventh Conference of the Parties to the Climate Convention (COP7) indicates that if a country is required to comply with the pollution limit, part of the required reduction in levels of emission will have to be achieved domestically. With this status quo, policy practitioners may opt to design emission level standards along with the provision of allowing access to the international permit market that may facilitate carbon offset crediting to the country. In policy formulation cognate to electricity generation through coal combustion, it is suggested that end-users will pay emission compliance costs in terms of the price of electricity usage and the companies will offer a rebate on reduction to those who curtail the level of usage of electricity. Under the scheme proposed, the generating company(s) will face the consequences if it fails to comply to domestic emission standards. In practice, the proposed method can ensure ‘Pareto efficiency’ and exhibit ‘Pareto improvement’ in two-party cases where both parties have joint interest in profit maximization, but they may have dichotomy in their activities. In dealing with domestic greenhouse gas issues, the proposal becomes appealing to parties for reducing the level of emissions. Moreover, it may produce a greater degree of abatement of CO2 emissions over the levels of abatement resulting from policies of consumer or producer liability assignments.

The potential contribution of sinks to meeting Kyoto Protocol commitments

Abstract The Kyoto Protocol to the climate convention makes provision for sink enhancement activities to contribute to meeting the greenhouse gas emissions limitation commitments of industrialised countries. This paper analyses the potential contribution of sink enhancement activities to meeting commitments of industrialised countries. Six scenarios covering different categories of eligible sinks are analysed. A range of the potential magnitude of the carbon sequestered by each category of sinks is tested. Since cost curves for the different types of sink enhancement activities are not available for most countries, a range of average costs is used with the lowest cost allowing maximum use of sinks. The effects considered are the impacts on compliance costs for OECD countries, economies in transition, and developing countries and the mix of actions used by industrialised countries to achieve compliance. In every scenario, at least some of the sinks have costs lower than the market price, so the larger the eligible sinks, the lower the compliance costs for industrialised countries. Greater use of sinks also reduces the net income received by the economies in transition and developing countries. Increased use of sinks lowers emission reductions implemented in industrialised countries and reduces non-sink activity under the Clean Development Mechanism.

The Present, Past, and Future Contributions to Global Warming of CO2 Emissions from Fuels

The objective of this paper is to emphasize theresponsibility of developed countries to implement the Climate Convention, as well as the role ofdeveloping countries in CO2 emissions controlwhile sustaining their rights to increase energyconsumption per capita during the development process. Itis shown that the growth in CO2$ emissions fromfossil fuel consumption in North America, excludingMexico, from 1990 to 1996 was 3.7 times higherthan that of Latin America in absolute terms. Thecumulative contribution to global warming, expressedas the mass of the gas multiplied by time (GtCy), can becalculated as the integration of the atmosphericconcentration of the emitted gas along time, witha weight function in the integrand to simulate theclimate response. To simulate climate response,we used the superposition of exponential decay functions with different decay constants. Thehistorical contributions of the OECD countries,the Eastern European countries and theex-Soviet Union, and from all developingcountries are considered. The future contributionsare computed in three scenarios. All of them showthat emissions from Non-Annex I countrieswill become higher than those of Annex I countriessoon after 2010, while the curves of atmosphericconcentration will cross one another later, not muchbefore 2050, and the respective contributions toglobal temperature increase will cross about 2090.

Beyond Kyoto? Media Representation of an Environmental Issue

Human‐induced climatic change, and particularly the enhanced greenhouse effect, became significant environmental issues in the 1990s. They were given prominent coverage in the Australian media at the time of the Third Conference of the Parties to the Climate Convention (COP3) in Kyoto in 1997, when Australia obtained permission for an 8 per cent increase in its greenhouse gas emissions by 2012. Meanwhile, other major emitters of greenhouse gases were accepting targets of significantly reduced emissions. Given the controversy associated with this, it might have been expected that the Australian media's coverage of COP4 in Buenos Aires, only 11 months later, would have been extensive. This was not the case. Analysis of seven Australian newspapers shows that, with the exception of an alternative weekly newspaper, the coverage of COP4 was an example of ‘embodiment’ (the uncritical acceptance of certain assumptions and practices) and ‘distanciation’ (the separation of cause and effect in regard to an issue).

Perspectives sur le changement climatique

Perspectives on climate change policy The past decade achieved significant progress in how humanity understand and cope with global climate change. It is increasingly known that the central hypothesis for the next century is that global average temperature will increase by about 2 °C in 2100, with carbon dioxyde concentration raising over 550 PPM. A catastrophic change of pattern in climate dynamics remains possible, which may be a risk more serious than gradual and anticipated warming. It's more and more understood that burning the world reserves of oil, gas and coal is technically very feasible, but environmentally very catastrophic. International negociations are led within the framework of the Climate Convention. Initially, they followed the model of the ozone layer treaty negociations. But climate change is a much wider issue, comparable in scope to law-of-the-sea or to free-trade negociations, with the additional complexity of scientific ignorance and intergenerational aspects. Negociation must be expected to go on for several decades. Industrialized countries agreed in Kyoto, in 1997, to reduce the level of their greenhouse gases emissions as soon as 2008–2012, about 5% below their 1990 level. This objective is ambitious considering the inertia of energy systems, since the current global trend is more like a 1 % annual growth. But this is not enought to insure a stable long-term rentability for industrial investments in less emitting technologies.

The Economies in Transition as Part of the Climate Regime: Recent Developments

Since the adoption of the Climate Convention in 1992 at the latest, formerly communist countries have been following the climate debate despite serious domestic economic and social problems. Since 1990 the region has contributed the most to curbing the problem of climate change, albeit accidentally, through the sharp decline in their emissions in parallel with the decline in their economies. In this paper we review the role played by the economies in transition in the climate negotiations until early 2000, especially in light of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the Climate Convention. We consider emissions trends and the scope for further emissions reductions. Subsequently, the potential benefits of the “Kyoto Mechanisms”, which include emissions trading, joint implementation, and the Clean Development Mechanism, are discussed. We find that the climate policies in Central and Eastern Europe and in the former Soviet Union are drifting further apart. Activities in Central and Eastern Europe are dominated by the EU accession process, while the countries further east continue to grapple with economic crises.

Wealth, Responsibility, and Equity: Exploring an Allocation Framework for Global GHG Emissions

The need to develop a framework for allocatingnational GHG emissions based on ‘rights to theatmosphere’ is increasingly pressing since aresolution of the issues surrounding these rights arelikely to be a precondition not only for moving beyondthe Kyoto Protocol, but even for effectiveimplementation of its Articles. This paper exploressome possible variations of a framework that isderived from the principles of the Climate Convention. It takes into account differences among countries interms of their current and historical greenhouse gasemissions, the attributes that contribute to thesedifferences, and the capabilities for contributing tothe achievement of the Convention's objectives. Furthermore, it is suggested that such a frameworkshould be designed so as to decouple the allocationissue from the deliberations over a suitable GHGconcentration stabilization target or global emissionscap. Such an approach could help achieve results inthe short to mid term without waiting for resolutionof the complex debate on the desirable level ofstabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in theatmosphere.Sample explorations with carbon dioxide emissions dataindicate that the framework presented here can beparticularly favorable to the least-developedcountries. This is appropriate since these countrieshave not contributed substantially to the enhancedgreenhouse effect, but may be quite vulnerable to theimpacts of a changing climate, and lack thecapabilities to mitigate adverse impacts or adapt asneeded. Equally importantly, the framework alsodifferentiates between industrialized countries on thebasis of their current income and historicalemissions. The implementation of such a framework inconjunction with an emissions trading scheme may offeran appropriate path towards meeting the objectives ofthe Climate Convention.

From Kyoto to Buenos Aires - the new climate regime produces a lot of hot air

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the Climate Convention sets legally binding targets for the industrialized countries. But some countries, especially Russia and Ukraine, adopted very weak targets, thus creating a large gap between their likely future emissions and their target level. This difference has been termed ‘hot air’. Through emissions trading those countries with excess emissions could buy ‘hot air’ and avoid taking action at home. This article reviews the potential size of and actors in such a market, and argues that any payment for traded emissions should be re-invested in further mitigation projects. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. and ERP Environment.

Assessing Political Influence in Complex Decision-Making: An Instrument Based on Triangulation

In the past decades substantial work has been done on the assessment of influence of stakeholders in political decision-making. However, its use may be difficult when the process to be investigated is highly complex. The EAR instrument to be presented here is a method for valid ordinal measurement of political influence in complex decision-making at various levels. This assessment is based on triangulation: (1) political players’ own perception of their influence; (2) other players’ perceptions of the influence brought to bear; and (3) a process analysis by the researcher. The application of the instrument is illustrated by a case regarding the political influence of global NGOs on the Climate Convention. The advantages and limitations of the EAR instrument are also discussed.

In fairness to current generations: lost voices in the climate debate

Notions of justice and equity, although enshrined in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, have not shaped the outcome of the subsequent negotiations to any substantial extent. These principles are relevant to various aspects of the climate debate, especially those of particular importance to developing countries. While focusing on issues with justice and equity dimensions will most likely be necessary for successful implementation of the Climate Convention, voices that speak out on such topics are often ignored or sometimes completely absent. Here we present and discuss three aspects of the climate debate the allocation of rights to the atmosphere,' liability for climate-related impacts, and the needs of those who do not contribute significantly to climate change that are of substantial importance for countries of the South. We believe that an increased attention to such issues, and their incorporation into the climate deliberations, is important for a robust climate regime. To do so will require, both, attention on the part of scientists, other analysts, and policy-makers as well as strengthening the capacity for marginalized groups to speak up.

Contribution of industrial and developing countries to the atmospheric CO2 concentrations

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto protocol made under the Convention, aim at controlling the greenhouse gas emissions and their concentrations in the atmosphere. The contributions of fossil fuel use in industrial and developing countries to the atmospheric CO2 concentration are calculated using estimates for emission developments and a simple carbon cycle model. The contribution of the industrial countries to the CO2 concentration increase, above the preindustrial level, is estimated to be about 50 ppm in 1990 if only the emissions from fossil fuels are considered. The contribution from developing countries is about 15 ppm. The contribution from industrial countries would increase by about 20 ppm between 1990 and 2010 if no emission reductions were assumed and by about 15 ppm in the considered rather strict reduction scenario. According to the Kyoto protocol the emissions from industrial countries should be reduced by 5.2% from the 1990 level in about 20 years. This development of the emissions would cause a concentration increase of 18 ppm. The concentration increase due to developing countries between 1990 and 2010 would be about 15 ppm. In order that the present global increase rate of CO2 concentration 1.5 ppm/a would not be exceeded, steeper reductions than those made in Kyoto should be agreed. Increasing global emissions and slow removal of CO2 from the atmosphere makes it difficult to reach the ultimate objective of the Climate Convention, the stabilisation of the atmospheric concentration.

Analysis of differences between national inventories and an Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR)

Abstract A comparison is made of national greenhouse gas inventories for the Climate Convention, (including US country study results) and an emissions database for global atmospheric research (EDGAR). The comparison pointed to some gaps in reporting and some large differences within sectors. In most cases the differences can be traced down to the use of different emission factors or the use of national statistics that differed from the internationally available ones. Comparison of inventories may stimulate the scientific exchange of data and increase the consensus on emissions. This comparison of semi-independent databases may therefore reduce uncertainties in emissions estimates. The exercise illustrated the usefulness of standard reporting formats and the availability of background information other than the official National Communications to the Climate Convention. The comparison may lead to major revisions of officially reported methane emissions in several countries.

Improving the quality of national greenhouse gas inventories

Abstract This paper summarises the findings of an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Expert Meeting on Methods for the Assessment of Inventory Data Quality held in Bilthoven, The Netherlands, 5–7 November 1997. Under the Kyoto Protocol of the Climate Convention, reliable inventories of national greenhouse gases (GHG) are needed for verifying compliance. Four approaches are suggested for assessing and improving the quality of greenhouse gas inventories: inventory quality assurance; inventory comparisons; model comparisons; and direct emission measurements. The paper presents recommendations for improving the quality of emission estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).

Methods for assessment of inventory data quality: issues for an IPCC expert meeting

Abstract The quality of greenhouse gas inventories has been a long-standing issue among the scientific community and its importance has more recently risen on the policy agenda. This is because national inventories are now the basis of legally-binding commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change. The quality of inventories will also affect the effective implementation of the Kyoto Protocol through its flexible mechanisms, such as emissions trading. In 1997, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) brought together a group of experts to consider approaches for assessing the quality of inventory data. This meeting considered three key issues. First, how do we define inventory quality? Second, what approaches can we use to assure the quality of inventories? Third, given the policy needs of Climate Convention, what are the next steps for quality assurance? There are several approaches for assessing inventory quality. This paper summarises them for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Many of these approaches are routinely performed by inventory experts, others are novel.