Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Research Articles

Exploring Climate Change Adaptations for Cultural Heritage: The ADAPT Framework

Abstract There is an urgent need for climate change–informed decision-making and adaptation actions for cultural heritage. Challenges arise in incorporating and balancing multiple considerations, including robust understandings of climate change vulnerability, the objectives of current management paradigms, the need for meaningful engagement, the risk of maladaptation, and constrained resources to implement. We offer a conceptual framework and guide to integrate climate science and cultural heritage management to produce a range of adaptation actions for cultural heritage, categorized as Acclimate, Dislocate, Abandon, Protect, and Tell the Story (ADAPT) approaches. The ADAPT framework is intended to aid archaeologists and other cultural heritage managers in developing and evaluating possible adaptation actions that directly respond to findings from climate change vulnerability assessments, critically integrating management postures and constraints, and coproducing climate change adaptations with Indigenous rightsholders and community stakeholders.

Assessing climate change vulnerability in coastal communities: a composite vulnerability index approach in Kuala Gula, Malaysia

Assessing climate change vulnerability in coastal communities: a composite vulnerability index approach in Kuala Gula, Malaysia

A Quick-Scan Methodology Incorporating Local Knowledge for Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments Applied in Kampala

AbstractA surge in publications on climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in recent years reflects the escalating impacts of climate change. These assessments are crucial for improving climate change adaptation planning. City-level integrated climate risk and vulnerability assessments (CRVAs) are increasingly relevant, particularly for African cities facing heightened vulnerability from local climate impacts and urbanization. There are several practical challenges in the context of Sub-Saharan African cities: 1) research capacity limitations; 2) the heterogeneity of settlements and their infrastructure; 3) data availability and accessibility; and 4) inclusion of local knowledge in the data collection process. This study aims to address these challenges through an integrated quick-scan CRVA approach. The methodology was developed during the COVID-19 pandemic to be conducted on distance with local partners, and tested through an instrumental case study in Kampala, Uganda. The case of Kampala shows the execution and resulting scan, with mapped districts where climate threats are urgent, summarized in so-called ‘neighbourhood profiles’. The method description and its implementation demonstrate that this form of CRVA methodology holds the potential to: (a) expedite city-wide climate assessments; (b) provide a filter procedure and a classification of diverse needs across districts; (c) bring together ‘insider knowledge’ and ‘outsider expertise’ and (d) establish knowledge collaborations across distances and scales. In just a few months’ time, the project team navigated in both informal community systems and formal institutional frameworks. Preferable to the alternative of complete absence of vulnerability assessments, the described ‘quick-scan method’ may be worthwhile for other African cities.

Climate change vulnerability assessment for adaptation planning in Uttarakhand, Indian Himalaya

Climate change vulnerability estimation at all spatial scales is imperative for the development of effective adaptation strategies in the biogeographically fragile Himalayan region. This study aims to estimate district-wise climate change vulnerability in the state of Uttarakhand for the year 2022 by integrating climatic, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Employing an integrated approach, nine components (climate change, natural disaster, ecosystem services, agriculture, socio-economic status, human resource capacity, infrastructure, basic facilities, and social/natural capital) incorporating a total of 63 indicators, are used to estimate exposure (E), sensitivity (S), adaptive capacity (AC) and the vulnerability of the study area. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to assess the suitability and weights of all the indicators. The findings show that middle (1400–2400 m a.s.l.) and higher (>2400 m a.s.l.) districts of the state are more vulnerable (−0.68 to −1.50) than lower (1–1400 m a.s.l.) districts (0.16 to −0.26). Based on the vulnerability index (−0.68 to −1.50), five districts-Uttarkashi, Rudraprayag, Chamoli, Champawat, Pithoragarh, and Bageshwar are identified as priority districts for adaptation planning. The high vulnerability is primarily attributed to increased exposure to excessive precipitation, cold waves, cloudbursts, and flood events, coupled with high ecosystem sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. In contrast, the lower districts of the state benefit from better infrastructure, social and natural capital, and connectivity, which contribute to low vulnerability. The suggested strategies in the present study would help policymakers to allocate resources efficiently, fostering long-term resilience to climate change and sustainable development.

Climate change and health vulnerability assessments to increase regional climate resilience

Abstract Background The impacts of climate change on health and healthcare systems exhibit complex interrelationships, varying across time and space. Population groups already disadvantaged due to their demographics, health, socioeconomic status, or geographical location tend to be particularly vulnerable to climate-related health risks. Our work aims to develop a method for a systematic quantitative vulnerability assessment to make regional vulnerabilities comparatively measurable. Methods Building on the WHO framework on Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (2021) a data mapping process was carried out to identify and validate vulnerability factors and quantitative indicators on a small-scale spatial resolution for the five dimensions: demographic, socioeconomic, biological/health, sociopolitical, and geographic/climate. Regional vulnerability scores for each indicator were calculated and visualized as geographic maps and circular barplots to allow for easily understandable interpretation. Results A set of 25 quantitative vulnerability indicators from a multitude of data sources - combining register data, survey data, and geospatial data - was compiled. Main challenges were the identification of sociopolitical vulnerability factors suitable for Austria and data availability on a small-scale level. The indicator set was used to identify regions that are particularly vulnerable due to their population composition, disease burden, and geographical location (e.g. regions in Eastern Austria with high shares of persons < 65 years of age, unemployment, and heat days). Conclusions Systematically assessing vulnerabilities in key dimensions is central to identifying regionally specific pressure points, allowing for a quantitative baseline to derive adequate and tailored climate change adaptation measures to sustain future health. Systematic assessment provides essential insights for policymakers, public health officials, and disaster management agencies.

Climate change adaptation measures in the context of health promotion using participatory foresight

Abstract Issue/problem Climate change is regarded as a big threat to human health (WHO 2023), requiring action to prepare our health systems. Using participatory foresight approach has the potential to increase capacities of communities and to sustain future health. The process is easily transferable to other regions or countries across Europe. The work is part of the Austrian “Climate-Resilience-Check Health for regions and municipalities”. Description of the problem We present an innovative qualitative method to contribute to a climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessment following WHO’s guidelines. Questions answered by the project were: • What measures can be taken to shape the regions’ potential for a health-promoting lifestyle and to increase climate resilience? • Does participatory foresight represent a well-suited method to develop climate adaptation measures which address local needs? Taking place between 10/23 to 12/23, the participatory foresight process consisted of (1) a foresight-workshop facilitating development of adaptation measures through the creation of personas and (2) intervention boards, which gave the broader population the opportunity to vote for measures developed in the workshop. The aim of the approach was to identify measures that receive approval within the population. Results The participatory foresight process highlighted the local populations’ wish of revitalizing village centers to strengthen social cohesion. Particular emphasis was placed on the establishment of a community center and the expansion of daycare services. Lessons The process will be conducted in further regions as part of the Climate-Resilience-Check Health for Austrian regions and provides lessons of good practice for roll-out across European countries aiming to bridge efforts for climate adaptation and health promotion at regional levels.

Assessing climate change vulnerability and livelihood strategies in Burkina Faso including insecurity paradigm: a focus on rain-fed agriculture households

Assessing climate change vulnerability and livelihood strategies in Burkina Faso including insecurity paradigm: a focus on rain-fed agriculture households

Climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Tanzania

Climate change vulnerability assessment is an essential tool for identifying regions that are most susceptible to the impacts of climate change and designing effective adaptation actions that can reduce vulnerability and enhance long-term resilience of these regions. This study explored a framework for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Jangwani Ward, Tanzania. Specifically, taking flood as an example, this study highlighted the steps and methods for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process. In the study area, 95 households were selected and interviewed through purposeful sampling. Additionally, 10 respondents (4 females and 6 males) were interviewed for Focus Group Discussion (FGD), and 3 respondents (1 female and 2 males) were selected for Key Informant Interviews (KII) at the Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development. This study indicated that climate change vulnerability assessment framework involves the assessment of climatic hazards, risk elements, and adaptive capacity, and the determination of vulnerability levels. The average hazard risk rating of flood was 2.3. Socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructures both had the average risk element rating of 3.0, and ecosystems had the average risk element rating of 2.9. Adaptive capacity ratings of knowledge, technology, economy or finance, and institution were 1.6, 1.9, 1.4, and 2.2, respectively. The vulnerability levels of socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructure were very high (4.0). Ecosystems had a high vulnerability level (3.8) to flood. The very high vulnerability level of socioeconomic and livelihood activities was driven by high exposure and sensitivity to risk elements and low adaptive capacity. The study recommends adoption of the new urban planning process including preparation, planning, implementation, and monitoring-evaluation-review phases that integrates climate change vulnerability assessment in all phases.

Assessing climate change vulnerability: A village level analysis of the Indian west coast

The Indian west coast is under constant threat from climate change-induced hazards. Various social, economic, and infrastructural disparities along the coast cause significant variations in climate vulnerability. Current literature assesses vulnerability either over (1) a large area with poor spatial resolution or (2) a local area with better spatial resolution. The former assessments provide more comprehensive and broad insights into large spatial trends of vulnerability, while the latter provide more accurate and specific inputs needed by the local governments for effective intervention. However, there is a lack of studies that assess vulnerability simultaneously at a high-resolution and over a large geographic area, due to inadequacies in existing methodologies and difficulty in data management and analysis. This is a key gap that we address in our paper. We assess climate vulnerability of the entire Indian west coast at the village level, and propose a novel machine-learning based methodology tailored for high-resolution assessment over large geographic areas. This helped us produce the first high-resolution (i.e. village-level) climate vulnerability map of the entire Indian west coast. We found that the state of Maharashtra has the highest number of vulnerable villages and the state of Kerala has the least number of vulnerable villages. We collate and utilize a large dataset of 112 indicators describing socioeconomic characteristics, infrastructure and availability of financial services, among other aspects, to obtain a comprehensive picture of vulnerability. We analyze geospatial trends and attribute high vulnerability to specific indicators, which will help in effective decision-making at the village level.

Climate change vulnerability assessment of Karşıyaka, İzmir

Climate change vulnerability assessment of Karşıyaka, İzmir

Climate resilience of European wine regions

Over centuries, European vintners have developed a profound knowledge about grapes, environment, and techniques that yield the most distinguishable wines. In many regions, this knowledge is reflected in the system of wine geographical indications (GI), but climate change is challenging this historical union. Here, we present a climate change vulnerability assessment of 1085 wine GIs across Europe and propose climate-resilient development pathways using an ensemble of biophysical and socioeconomic indicators. Results indicate that wine regions in Southern Europe are among the most vulnerable, with high levels also found in Eastern Europe. Vulnerability is influenced by the rigidity of the GI system, which restricts grape variety diversity and thus contributes to an increased sensitivity to climate change. Contextual deficiencies, such as limited socioeconomic resources, may further contribute to increased vulnerability. Building a climate-resilient wine sector will require rethinking the GI system by allowing innovation to compensate for the negative effects of climate change.

Assessing vulnerability to climate change among farmers in northwestern Iran: A multi-dimensional approach

Assessing the vulnerability of farmers can strengthen their capabilities against climate change (CC). For this purpose, this study uses a multi-dimensional approach, integrating both quantitative and qualitative methods to assess the vulnerability of farmers to CC and subsequently to provide solutions to cope with or adapt to CC in rural districts (RDs) of Hashtroud city, northwestern Iran. Our findings reveal that the lowest vulnerability of farmers to CC in Solouk and Qarranqou RDs is due to their higher “net income from the farmlands,” “labor force,” “medical insurance” and “access to agricultural inputs.” Also, the highest vulnerability of farmers to CC in the Nazar Kahrizi RD is due to their weaker “net income from the farmlands,” “sale channels,” “education” and “crop diversity.” The experiences of farmers indicate that coping and adaptation strategies such as “weather forecasting,” “changing planting date,” “implementing agroforestry practices,” and “pre-selling the products” have increased their adaptive capacity (AC). The acceptance of these strategies by local communities is critical, emphasizing the importance of aligning proposed solutions with farmers' preferences and capabilities. Results highlight the predominant role of AC in influencing vulnerability, consistent with similar studies in other regions. Higher AC is shown to mitigate the potential harm of CC, emphasizing the importance of farmers' capacity to transform resources into adaptive strategies. Overall, this study provides a comprehensive assessment of CC vulnerability, shedding light on the importance of AC and proposing context-specific coping and adaptation strategies to boost resilience in the face of climate challenges.

Assessing climate change vulnerability of coastal roads

Climate change is a global phenomenon, which affects in several ways different regions all around the world, beyond the rise in global temperature. Among the different climate change issues, the management of transport infrastructures is crucial. Particularly, their vulnerability against changes in climatic conditions should be assessed. Vulnerability indicators are based on the IPCC concept of vulnerability and can be defined as a function of Climate Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity. These dimensions need to be addressed during the assessment making and can be modelled as a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) problem. This study proposes an integrated approach of several MCDA methods as a possible tool for ranking the climate change vulnerability of coastal roads in Malta. The application covers six coastal roads in the islands of Malta, classified by three different MCDA methods. The results indicate that the proposed approach can produce a consistent ranking of the climate change vulnerability of coastal roads. The study provides policy and decision-makers with a definition of a coastal road, an inventory of such roads, a list of climate change impacts, and a mathematical model incorporating climate change vulnerability indicators. The model can be used to prioritize investment and plan climate change adaptation strategies for infrastructural works on coastal roads.

The Impact of Climate Change on Mental Health: A General Population Study

Introduction Climate change and its impact on mental health is a growing area of research. Several studies have explored the relationship between climate change and mental health, highlighting the various ways in which climate change can affect individuals’ psychological well-being. Incorporating mental health indicators into climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments is another important aspect of research in this area (Hayes & Poland, 2018). The study suggests that standardized methods to measure and predict the psychosocial outcomes of climate change should be implemented to better understand the mental health impacts. While the physical health consequences of climate change have received more attention, the mental health impacts are often overlooked (Nicholas et al., 2020).ObjectivesThis study was planned to examine the impact of climate change the impact of climate change on mental healthMethodsThis descriptive and cross-sectional study was conducted with individuals who willing to participate the study and above 18 years age. Individuals who saw the online advertisement and click on the study’s link were be brought to the study’s home page on Online Surveys. Should they wish to proceed, they will be brought to an information page detailing the purpose of the study, how their confidentiality and anonymity will be preserved and how their data will be treated.Socio-Demographic Data Form, Climate Change Worry Scale, Eysenck Personality Questionnaire Revised- Abbreviated, general health questioner and Depression, Anxiety, Stress scale were used for collecting data. Data analyses was planned to run via Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version, 27.0.ResultsThe analysis of the data is still ongoing in detail by the researchers. The findings and relational implications of the study will be presented.Conclusions In conclusion, this study highlight the importance of understanding the mental health impacts of climate change and developing strategies to address them. Climate change can have direct and indirect consequences on mental health, and vulnerable populations such as children and adolescents may be particularly at risk. Reducing psychological distance and incorporating mental health indicators into assessments can help in understanding and addressing the mental health consequences of climate change.Disclosure of InterestNone Declared

Heatwaves are detrimental to fertility in the viviparous tsetse fly.

Heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change, pushing animals beyond physiological limits. While most studies focus on survival limits, sublethal effects on fertility tend to occur below lethal thresholds, and consequently can be as important for population viability. Typically, male fertility is more heat-sensitive than female fertility, yet direct comparisons are limited. Here, we measured the effect of experimental heatwaves on tsetse flies, Glossina pallidipes, disease vectors and unusual live-bearing insects of sub-Saharan Africa. We exposed males or females to a 3-day heatwave peaking at 36, 38 or 40°C for 2 h, and a 25°C control, monitoring mortality and reproduction over six weeks. For a heatwave peaking at 40°C, mortality was 100%, while a 38°C peak resulted in only 8% acute mortality. Females exposed to the 38°C heatwave experienced a one-week delay in producing offspring, whereas no such delay occurred in males. Over six weeks, heatwaves resulted in equivalent fertility loss in both sexes. Combined with mortality, this lead to a 10% population decline over six weeks compared to the control. Furthermore, parental heatwave exposure gave rise to a female-biased offspring sex ratio. Ultimately, thermal limits of both survival and fertility should be considered when assessing climate change vulnerability.

Spatially Explicit climate change vulnerability assessment of ecological systems along altitudinal gradients in the Indian Himalayan region

Spatial ecological vulnerability assessments are important for devising management plans for ecological systems to maintain the flow of ecosystem services, especially in the mountains. Himalayan mountains, being a fragile ecosystem, have considerable ecological value, however, information on ecological vulnerability is lacking. The present evaluation attempts to prioritize ecosensitive zones by assessing the altitudinal ecological vulnerability of Garhwal Himalaya, India by devising a framework using a mix of bio-physical parameters. Eight bio-physical parameters, viz., Land Use and Land Cover (LULC), slope, aspect, landscape fragmentation, temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)) were identified and considered to assess vulnerability. Spatial Principal Component Analysis (SPCA) results in five Principal Components (PCs), which were integrated and weighted for the calculation of the Ecological Vulnerability Index (EVI). The analysis results differential vulnerability across the altitudes with above 2000m altitude showed severe vulnerability and classified as potential vulnerability (36.25 %), slight vulnerability (35.25 %), medium vulnerability (20.25 %), high vulnerability (8.25 %) and severe vulnerability (0.25 %). The vulnerable regions were prioritized based on their ecological vulnerability as per the classes viz., region of strict protection (24.70 %), region of focal protection (60.41%) and region of composite development (14.89 %). The study suggetsed priority conservation and management actions for addressing the vulnerable areas for sustainable development of the region. The study provides valuable insights of vulnerability and associated protection measures leading to devising the most suitable management strategies for the sustainability of the ecological systems.

A feasibility study for the application of climate change vulnerability assessments on species in the Tallurutiup Imanga National Marine Conservation Area

Abstract Climate change is disproportionately affecting Arctic ecosystems and their resident species, but knowledge gaps complicate conservation planning. A proof‐of‐concept application of existing trait‐based vulnerability assessment frameworks were applied to nine species from three different taxa (cetaceans, pinnipeds, marine fish) to determine their vulnerability under the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. A literature review and data gap analysis were performed to quantify vulnerability and recommend future research priorities. Each assessed species was found to be highly vulnerable to climate change, with char, cod, and walrus being the most vulnerable. The largest data gaps include outdated or missing abundance measurements mortality rates in both marine mammals and fish, and reproductive behaviours for fish specifically. Future assessments should consider multiple emissions scenarios that match the ranges of migratory species not confined to the TINMCA. Providing a method to preliminarily evaluate climate change vulnerability may help mitigate issues brought by limited species experts, such as respondent fatigue. More refined scores will require the assistance of species experts, including biologists and Indigenous knowledge holders.

Proposed Methodology for Climate Change Adaptation of Water Infrastructures in the Mediterranean Region

Water Infrastructure (WI) is one of the most important sectors of Critical Infrastructure (CI); it encompasses drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater. The WI is vulnerable to the effects of Climate Change (CC) that can disrupt its functionality; thus, it needs to be adapted to CC, especially in the Mediterranean region, where these effects are expected to intensify during the twenty-first century. For this adaptation a Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) is required in the development of WI to identify the important climate hazards and to recommend the required measures for the adaptation of the WI to these hazards. In the present work, a CRVA methodology is developed and presented based on a literature survey and the relevant European Commission guidelines; it is structured around five key steps: (1) Description of the WI, (2) Climate change assessment, (3) Vulnerability assessment, (4) Risk assessment, and (5) Assessment of adaptation measures. The application of the methodology is illustrated indicatively to a wastewater system in Greece for which preliminary estimations are performed, results are discussed, and conclusions are drawn. The proposed methodology can be modified for application to other sectors of CI; moreover, is a valuable resource in academic curricula and ongoing research initiatives.

A habitat‐centered framework for wildlife climate change vulnerability assessments: Application to Gunnison sage‐grouse

AbstractThe persistence of threatened wildlife species depends on successful conservation and restoration of habitats, but climate change and other stressors make these tasks increasingly challenging. Applying climate change vulnerability analyses to contemporary wildlife management can be difficult because most analyses predict direct effects of future climate on wildlife species at broad geographic scales, rather than assessing their habitats at local scales (<1 km) that correspond to site‐specific habitat management actions. We present a framework that synthesizes vegetation‐focused vulnerability assessments to assess multiple effects on wildlife species' diverse habitat needs, providing a scenario‐driven climate vulnerability assessment that maps differences in vulnerability of populations within a species' range. Our flexible habitat‐centered synthesis approach leverages available spatial datasets describing projected exposure to vegetation changes due to climate change and other potentially synergistic stressors, reclassifies and weights them based on available estimates of species' sensitivity to these changes, and recombines them to create <1‐km resolution maps of overall species vulnerability and threat‐specific habitat vulnerability. To demonstrate its potential to guide decision‐making, we applied this approach to the Gunnison sage‐grouse (Centrocercus minimus), a federally threatened habitat specialist that depends on sagebrush and mesic habitats that are imperiled by climate change. We mapped six threats forecasted out to the year 2070: direct effects of climate on (1) sagebrush cover loss and (2) mesic habitat drying, indirect changes in invasion risk from (3) pinyon–juniper conifers and (4) annual grasses, and potentially synergistic risk of (5) development and (6) wildfire. We then assessed species vulnerability for each of the eight extant populations under three climate scenarios: Optimistic, Continuation, and Pessimistic. We found that the extent of cumulative species vulnerability due to multiple habitat changes was far greater than the extent of any single habitat vulnerability. Over 75% of critical habitats were at risk under the Pessimistic scenario, and nearly two thirds of habitats were at high risk for three or more threats. Invasive species were the most widespread threat, highlighting the importance of indirect effects of climate change. We illustrate how our approach can be applied to the existing management planning strategies to better prioritize conservation of habitats for the persistence of threatened species.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Endemic Colombian Amphibian Species to Climate Change in an Isolated Montane Ecosystem

Background and Research Aims Climate change, habitat loss, and fragmentation are the major threats to biodiversity. Montane amphibians are particularly sensitive to these threats. We address the vulnerability of the amphibian community in Colombia using a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) and prioritize amphibian species at risk of extinction and in need of conservation actions. Methods We completed two independent spatial analyses to assess species vulnerability in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta (SNSM), Colombia. First, we calculated the Area of Habitat and the percent of the Area of Habitat under protected area coverage for 19 species. We then examined the breadth of climatic space occupied by 16 species and how this space is predicted to shift under climate scenarios (RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5) for 12 General Circulation Models for 2050. We combined these two analyses with trait data related to adaptive capacity, obtained from previous research, to create a combined (correlative-trait) CCVA. Results Our analysis reveals a large reduction in available climatic space under both RCP scenarios by 2050. Our CCVA identified eight high priority species, including three Atelopus species and five within the Serranobatrachus/Tachiramantis complex, with extreme reductions in available climate space under RCP 8.5. The SNSM endemic and range restricted species are at elevated risk of extinction under climate change scenarios, with many moving into a high-risk category of extinction under the RCP 8.5. Given its isolation, the endemic species of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta (SNSM) are threatened by changing climates. Implications for Conservation The information provided in this manuscript used a vulnerability assessment to develop regional strategies for climate change adaptation and conservation. When possible, climate vulnerability must be incorporated into future adaptation and priority planning for the conservation of endemic, threatened montane amphibians, preferably via local management plans.