Climate change vulnerability assessment for adaptation planning in Uttarakhand, Indian Himalaya

Abstract

Climate change vulnerability estimation at all spatial scales is imperative for the development of effective adaptation strategies in the biogeographically fragile Himalayan region. This study aims to estimate district-wise climate change vulnerability in the state of Uttarakhand for the year 2022 by integrating climatic, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Employing an integrated approach, nine components (climate change, natural disaster, ecosystem services, agriculture, socio-economic status, human resource capacity, infrastructure, basic facilities, and social/natural capital) incorporating a total of 63 indicators, are used to estimate exposure (E), sensitivity (S), adaptive capacity (AC) and the vulnerability of the study area. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to assess the suitability and weights of all the indicators. The findings show that middle (1400–2400 m a.s.l.) and higher (>2400 m a.s.l.) districts of the state are more vulnerable (−0.68 to −1.50) than lower (1–1400 m a.s.l.) districts (0.16 to −0.26). Based on the vulnerability index (−0.68 to −1.50), five districts-Uttarkashi, Rudraprayag, Chamoli, Champawat, Pithoragarh, and Bageshwar are identified as priority districts for adaptation planning. The high vulnerability is primarily attributed to increased exposure to excessive precipitation, cold waves, cloudbursts, and flood events, coupled with high ecosystem sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. In contrast, the lower districts of the state benefit from better infrastructure, social and natural capital, and connectivity, which contribute to low vulnerability. The suggested strategies in the present study would help policymakers to allocate resources efficiently, fostering long-term resilience to climate change and sustainable development.