Climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Tanzania

Abstract

Climate change vulnerability assessment is an essential tool for identifying regions that are most susceptible to the impacts of climate change and designing effective adaptation actions that can reduce vulnerability and enhance long-term resilience of these regions. This study explored a framework for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Jangwani Ward, Tanzania. Specifically, taking flood as an example, this study highlighted the steps and methods for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process. In the study area, 95 households were selected and interviewed through purposeful sampling. Additionally, 10 respondents (4 females and 6 males) were interviewed for Focus Group Discussion (FGD), and 3 respondents (1 female and 2 males) were selected for Key Informant Interviews (KII) at the Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development. This study indicated that climate change vulnerability assessment framework involves the assessment of climatic hazards, risk elements, and adaptive capacity, and the determination of vulnerability levels. The average hazard risk rating of flood was 2.3. Socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructures both had the average risk element rating of 3.0, and ecosystems had the average risk element rating of 2.9. Adaptive capacity ratings of knowledge, technology, economy or finance, and institution were 1.6, 1.9, 1.4, and 2.2, respectively. The vulnerability levels of socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructure were very high (4.0). Ecosystems had a high vulnerability level (3.8) to flood. The very high vulnerability level of socioeconomic and livelihood activities was driven by high exposure and sensitivity to risk elements and low adaptive capacity. The study recommends adoption of the new urban planning process including preparation, planning, implementation, and monitoring-evaluation-review phases that integrates climate change vulnerability assessment in all phases.