Climate Change Projections Research Articles

MONITORING AND EVALUATION TOOLS AND PERFORMANCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECT: A CASE OF GREEN AMAYAGA PROJECT

The purpose of this research was to examine monitoring and evaluation tools and performance of climate change project, case study of Green Amayaga Project. The research was guided by the following specific objectives: to evaluate the effect of project control tools on the performance of Green Amayaga climate change project, to assess the effect of project performance reporting on the performance of Green Amayaga climate change project and to determine the effect of project results evaluation on the performance of Green Amayaga climate change project. Three theories identified in this research include goal setting theory, theory of change and evaluation theory of tree. Furthermore, the research design used both descriptive and correlation analyses. The target population was made up of 143 people while the sample size is 106 selected using simple random sampling technique and quota sampling including the beneficiaries of Green Amayaga Project. Primary data was collected using questionnaires and interview guide. The findings revealed a strong relationship between project control tools and project performance as reported by the Pearson correlation (r=0.735, p<0.05). The findings on objective two (r=0.604, p<0.05) indicates positive and significant relationship with project performance. The findings based on the third objective reported a moderate positive relationship (r=0.504, p<0.000) between project result evaluation and project performance. The regression analysis reported R2=0.810 showing that 81% of the project performance is due to the influence of the use of project M&E tools such as project control tools, project performance reporting and project result evaluation. The researcher recommends that the project managers in community-based projects such as the Green Amayaga should use the M&E tools to ensure such projects achieve their development objectives within their budget, timeframe, and scope. The researcher also recommends that progressive reporting should be adopted in order to continuously furnish the donors and other stakeholders with relevant information for decision making. KEY WORDS: Monitoring and Evaluation, M&E Tools, Climate change adaptation, Project Performance, Rwanda

Unveiling Hydrological Shifts under Projected Climate Change in Highly Irrigated Semi-Arid State of Telangana, India

Unveiling Hydrological Shifts under Projected Climate Change in Highly Irrigated Semi-Arid State of Telangana, India

Podnebne projekcije temperature zraka in padavin za porečja Ledave, Pesnice in Vipave do konca 21. stoletja

As part of the project ‚CeVoTak‘, Integrated Management of Small Water Retention and Soil Erosion Prevention Measures in Agricultural Catchments, we studied changing temperature and precipitation conditions up to the year 2100. The study was conducted on agricultural lands in the catchments of the Ledava and Pesnica rivers in the sub-Pannonian region and the Vipava river in the sub-Mediterranean region. A common climate database was used to create the climate projections - RCM (Regional Climate Model) simulations from the project EURO-CORDEX and scenarios RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway), RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The projections were prepared for three time periods 2011-2040; 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 for 6 different regional climate models for average, minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation. Analysis of the ensemble of model simulations for all scenarios shows similar results for the basin of all rivers, an increase in temperature (maximum in winter, minimum in spring), with high confidence for all scenarios and periods. Projections of precipitation are less reliable, but show an increase in annual precipitation due to the winter increase. The use of climate change projections with expert interpretation is essential for determining the vulnerability of individual areas and building resilience through the implementation of climate change adaptation.

Climate-Induced Migration: Conflict Resolution and Legal Efforts in Pacific, Africa, and South Asia

Climate-induced migration involves people relocating caused by detrimental climate changes affecting their living environment. Pacific, Africa, and South Asia have experienced climate-induced migration resulting from extreme weather events, sea level rise, drought and desertification, and temperature extremes. The purpose of this research is to find out in terms of conflict resolution, what legal efforts have been made by the government of the affected regions to address climate-induced migration. This study uses descriptive qualitative method and case studies. Based on the results obtained from the data, it was found that the affected governments are pursuing various legal efforts to be able to tackle climate-induced migration. Several efforts made, namely “Migration with Dignity” policy, the Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change (PACC) Project, Great Green Wall initiative, the African Union’s Regional Economic Communities (RECs), Bangladesh’s Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP), the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Disaster Management Centre, and India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). The regional initiatives mentioned earlier play pivotal roles in implementing these frameworks and fostering collaborative endeavors, whilst the innovative legal frameworks, guided by SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-bound) indicators, ensure that climate-induced migration is addressed effectively. To sum up, dealing with climate-induced migration requires a holistic approach involving regional collaboration and innovative legal frameworks.

Resetting tropospheric OH and CH4 lifetime with ultraviolet H2O absorption.

The decay of methyl chloroform, a banned ozone-depleting substance, has provided a clear observational metric of mean tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) abundance. Almost all current global chemistry models calculate about 15% too much OH and thus too rapid methane loss. Methane is a short-lived climate forcer, critical to achieving global warming targets, and this error affects our model projections of climate change. New observations of water vapor absorption in the ultraviolet region (290 to 350 nanometers) imply reductions in sunlight with key photolysis rates decreasing by 8 to 12% in the near-surface tropical atmosphere. Incorporation of this new mechanism in a chemistry-transport model reduces OH and methane loss by only 4%, but combined with other proposed mechanisms, such as tropospheric halogen chemistry (7%), we may be able to resolve this conundrum.

Robust and smart: Inference on phenotypic plasticity of Coffea canephora reveals adaptation to alternative environments

AbstractCoffee is an important crop with economic and social importance in several countries. With a daily consumption estimated at 2.2 billion cups, its sustainability is facing critical challenges given the projected climate changes. Coffea arabica, which represents ∼60% of the global market coffee is a delicate crop, quite susceptible to diseases and biotic stresses. Developing climate‐resilience cultivars is necessary, and it includes coffee plants adapted to new farming conditions that can meet the demand for biotic and abiotic tolerance and quality. In this context, Coffea canephora emerges as a potential candidate if the crop combines plasticity and cupping quality. Plant plasticity refers to adjusted phenotypic performance when grown in different environments, a fact that may help mitigate the detrimental effect of climate changes. In this study, using a multiple environment trial, we combined genomic and genotype‐by‐environment analyses to answer the following main question: How the climate effects may affect the phenotypic plasticity in C. canephora? Our contributions in this paper are fourfold: (i) we draw attention to the cupping quality and yield performance of C. canephora cultivars when evaluated in high‐altitude and cold weather, (ii) we compared C. arabica and C. canephora phenotypic plasticity and highlight genotypes with broad and specific adaptation to certain environmental conditions, and finally, (iii) using stochastic simulation, we emphasize the potential of molecular breeding in the long term in coffee. Altogether, we present an emerging view on how C. canephora could be a valid alternative for climate‐smart cultivars in a projected scenario of altered climatic conditions.

Dependence of Europe's most threatened mammals on movement to adapt to climate change.

Current rates of climate change and gloomy climate projections confront managers and conservation planners with the need to integrate climate change into already complex decision-making processes. Predicting and prioritizing climatically stable areas and the areas likely to facilitate adaptive species' range adjustments are important stages in maximizing conservation outcomes and rationalizing future land management. I determined, for the most threatened European terrestrial mammal species, the spatial adaptive trajectories (SATs) of highest expected persistence up to 2080. I devised simple spatial network indices for evaluation of species in those SATs: total persistence; proportion of SATs that offer in situ adaptation (i.e., stable refugia); number of SATs converging in a site; and relationship between SAT convergence and persistence and protected areas, the Natura 2000 and Emerald networks, and areas of low human disturbance. I compared the performance of high-persistence SATs with a scenario in which each species remained in the areas with the best climatic conditions in the baseline period. The 1000 most persistence SATs for each of the 39 species covered one fifth of Europe. The areas with the largest adaptive potential (i.e., high persistence, stability, and SAT convergence) did not always overlap for all the species. Predominantly, these regions were located in southwestern Europe, Central Europe, and Scandinavia, with some occurrences in Eastern Europe. For most species, persistence in the most climatically suitable areas during the baseline period was lower than within SATs, underscoring their reliance on adaptive movements. Importantly, conservation areas (particularly protected areas) covered only minor fractions of species persistence among SATs, and hubs of spatial climate adaptation (i.e., areas of high SAT convergence) were seriously underrepresented in most conservation areas. These results highlight the need to perform analyses on spatial species' dynamics under climate change.

GIS-Based Risk Assessment on Sea Level Rise and Flooding in Alsancak Harbour Behind Area

According to climate change projections outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th Assessment Report, sea levels are expected to rise between 0.37 and 1.88 meters by 2150. The rise in sea level poses a significant threat to coastal areas, including industrial heritage zones frequently developed around ports. Alsancak Harbour Behind Area is a significant location due to its essential industrial heritage. The main objective of the research is to evaluate the potential risks related to floods and long-term sea level rises in the Alsancak Harbour Behind Area. Thus, the research aims to assess the potential risks associated with flooding and long-term sea level rise in the Alsancak Harbour Behind Area within the context of industrial heritage. It also measures the area's resilience to these risks and discusses planning decisions. The ‘Coastal Risk Screening Tool’ was used to create a coastal flood map according to determined three different scenarios. The result shows that the valuable industrial heritage buildings such as the Coal Gas Factory, Old Flour Mill-II and Tariş Alcohol Factory, new high-rise residential areas, port facilities and transportation arteries are at high or medium risk, especially in 2100 and 2150.

Spatially varying impacts of pacific and southern ocean climate modes on tidal residuals in New South Wales, Australia

Still water levels along the New South Wales (NSW) coast often vary from those predicted by harmonic analysis based purely on astronomical forcing. This variation can lead to unexpected inundation episodes along the coast and in estuaries. This study investigates the large-scale ocean-atmosphere drivers that can contribute to these unexpected water levels. Time series regressions and cross- and coherence-wavelet transforms were used to investigate relationships between six tidal residual datasets from NSW ocean gauges and three indices of large-scale climate modes: canonical El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Significant relationships were identified between canonical ENSO and SAM and the tidal residual datasets; however, ENSO Modoki did not have a significant impact. Collectively, SAM and canonical ENSO account for up to 45% of the variance in tidal residuals along the NSW coast, with impacts increasing southwards. Wavelet coherences showed that tidal residuals covary significantly with SAM and ENSO, with the largest peaks in the two- and eight-year frequency bands. These results demonstrate a strong dependence of tidal residuals on the phasing of SAM and canonical ENSO. With continued improvements in seasonal forecasts of climate modes, including canonical ENSO and SAM, this research presents important new insights that may contribute to improved management of inundation along the NSW coast. The research also provides a baseline of natural variability on which climate change projections can be considered, given that inundation events are projected to become more frequent.

Intercomparison of ocean temperature and circulation near the Galápagos islands in high-resolution models and observations

The mean structure and variability of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) have important implications for upwelling, sea surface temperature (SST), and productivity in the ecologically vital Galápagos Cold Pool. Historically, global coupled climate model simulations have exhibited considerable biases in their simulation of the EUC due to the requirement of relatively high spatial resolution to represent its dynamics. Particularly in the eastern equatorial Pacific, models must also adequately resolve important topographic features to accurately simulate the regional circulation. Here, we examine the extent to which a high-resolution configuration of the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and a suite of models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison project (HighResMIP) adequately represent the regional ocean circulation and other important climatological features of the eastern equatorial Pacific such as the EUC and the associated temperature patterns defining the cold tongue/Galápagos Cold Pool complex. Comparisons with satellite SST and in situ velocity observations, and a high-resolution ocean reanalysis product, illustrate that the high-resolution configuration of the CESM captures many key aspects of the SST field and EUC uniquely well, including its seasonal-to-interannual variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Specific strengths and biases of this model with direct comparison to the HighResMIP ensemble are discussed in detail, along with the potential for application of these models to interdisciplinary research topics such as projecting climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

Do Tasmanian devil declines impact ecosystem function?

Tasmanian eucalypt forests are among the most carbon-dense in the world, but projected climate change could destabilize this critical carbon sink. While the impact of abiotic factors on forest ecosystem carbon dynamics have received considerable attention, biotic factors such as the input of animal scat are less understood. Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii)-an osteophageous scavenger that can ingest and solubilize nutrients locked in bone material-may subsidize plant and microbial productivity by concentrating bioavailable nutrients (e.g., nitrogen and phosphorus) in scat latrines. However, dramatic declines in devil population densities, driven by the spread of a transmissible cancer, may have underappreciated consequences for soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and forest productivity by altering nutrient cycling. Here, we fuse experimental data and modeling to quantify and predict future changes to forest productivity and SOC under various climate and scat-quality futures. We find that devil scat significantly increases concentrations of nitrogen, ammonium, phosphorus, and phosphate in the soil and shifts soil microbial communities toward those dominated by r-selected (e.g., fast-growing) phyla. Further, under expected increases in temperature and changes in precipitation, devil scat inputs are projected to increase above- and below-ground net primary productivity and microbial biomass carbon through 2100. In contrast, when devil scat is replaced by lower-quality scat (e.g., from non-osteophageous scavengers and herbivores), forest carbon pools are likely to increase more slowly, or in some cases, decline. Together, our results suggest often overlooked biotic factors will interact with climate change to drive current and future carbon pool dynamics in Tasmanian forests.

Crop and Economical Water Productivity of Wheat at Perennial and Non-Perennial Canals in Sindh

The freshwater resources are under immense pressure to provide water and food security. New climate change projections for current and future water availability suggest that farmers and policymakers must move from traditional per-acre crop yield measurement to crop and economics water productivity. This research aimed to assess wheat-crop CWP and EWP at perennial and non-perennial canals. The Nara and Rice canals were selected, and both canals were off-take at Sukkur Barrage from Indus. Two distributaries were selected from each canal with the location of the head and tail. A survey tool was designed to collect data. In total, 431 farmers were randomly selected. The collected data was analyzed by using CWP, EWP, Vw, Cobb-Douglas production function, and DEA techniques. Results show that the tail of the Rice canal, CWP, EWP, and Vw was higher than the head. But at the head of the Nara canal, CWP, EWP, and VW were higher than at the tail. The Cobb-Douglas results show the significant impact of irrigation, fertilizer, and watercourse position on production. Further, in DEA results, the tail reaches of both canals were more efficient. Similarly, higher water-saving potential is observed at the head of both canals.

A new scenario free procedure to determine flood peak changes in the Harz Mountains in response to climate change projections

Study areaSix catchments of different hydrological characteristics in the Harz Mountains, Germany. Study focusA new scenario free method for determining changes of flood peaks considering climate change is developed. Compared to existing methods, it accounts for heavy rainfall changes by a newly developed factor with two seasons and establishes a numerical relationship to a greater number of relevant climate predictors. For easier application, it is based on frequently available daily measurements. A functional test of the factor for heavy rainfall changes and its adjustment algorithm for the precipitation time series is performed. Using a regional AR5 ensemble, for the first time the error and the uncertainty of a new scenario free method are estimated and compared with an existing method. The new method is applied in the Harz Mountains, where the sensitivity of the region to different climate predictors is investigated. New hydrological insights for the regionThe adjusting algorithm for precipitation is able to adjust the time series while maintaining mass balance. The new method has a lower error than the reference method, with better matches of changes in the median of the climate ensemble as well as the most ensemble members. In general, the uncertainty of the seasonal results is below the climate uncertainty of the AR5 ensemble. Regarding future flood peaks, the regional catchments are most sensitive to mean precipitation changes, followed by heavy rainfall changes especially in the winter season. Mean temperature changes are of minor significance, but the catchments characteristics are important. The new method can be recommended for assessments of climate change impacts on floods in low to average mountain regions in Germany and Europe.

FORECASTING THE DYNAMICS OF POPULATIONS OF HARMFUL INSECTS AND PATHOGENS OF WOODY PLANTS OF THE FOREST-STEPPE OF UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing humanity. The emergence of dry tree patches in various parts of the globe indicates the global nature of processes related to planetary cycles and climate change. This is likely linked to various factors, including warming trends, changes in precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and alterations in ocean currents. To achieve the goal of this article, through empirical and analytical research methods, we analyzed contemporary scientific publications. We found that the projected spread of insect pests, parasites, and pathogens among tree species is increasingly concerning experts. Forest drying is a problem for both Europe and Ukraine, where the area affected by pine wilt has encompassed the Forest-Steppe region and spread to other natural zones. The paper highlights the pertinent issue of analyzing factors contributing to the weakening and deterioration of the sanitary condition of Forest-Steppe trees in Ukraine. Researchers predict significant climate changes in the near future. Due to such changes, insect pests and other pathogens may inflict even greater damage to forest plants. Climate change, particularly increased carbon dioxide emissions and warming, frequent droughts, and temperature fluctuations, affect pest populations. Common diseases of Forest-Steppe trees in Ukraine include those caused by insects, fungi, and bacteria. For instance, the most widespread affliction in forests is root rot (Fomes aппosus Fr., Heterobasidion annosum (Fr.) Bref.). Plants also suffer considerable damage from nematodes and viruses. The publication examines the impact of climate change (temperature, humidity, etc.) on the biology and ecology of insect pests and explores the potential use of modern monitoring technologies for pests and forecasting tools. Thus, projected climate changes can cause warming, altering the quantitative, qualitative, and temporal characteristics of precipitation. In this way, global climate changes affect water availability in soil, atmospheric water vapor flows, and hydrological processes. Many pests are sensitive to changes in precipitation and temperature, leading to shifts in their populations.

Role of the forcing sources in morphodynamic modelling of an embayed beach

Abstract. The sensitivity of a 2DH coastal area (XBeach) and a reduced-complexity (Q2Dmorfo) morphodynamic model to using different forcing sources is studied. The models are tested by simulating the morphodynamic response of an embayed beach in the NW Mediterranean over a 6-month period. Wave and sea-level forcing from in situ data, propagated buoy measurements, and hindcasts, as well as combinations of these different data sources, are used, and the outputs are compared to in situ bathymetric measurements. Results show that when the two models are calibrated with in situ measurements, they accurately reproduce the morphodynamic evolution with a “good” Brier skill score (BSS). The calibration process reduces the errors by 65 %–85 % compared with the default setting. The wave data propagated from the buoy also produce reliable morphodynamic simulations but with a slight decrease in the BSS. Conversely, when the models are forced with hindcast wave data, the mismatch between the modelled and observed beach evolution increases. This is attributed to a large extent to biased mean directions in hindcast waves. Interestingly, in this small tide site, the accuracy of the simulations hardly depends on the sea-level data source, and using filtered or non-filtered tides also yields similar results. These results have implications for long-term morphodynamic studies, like those needed to validate models for climate change projections, emphasizing the need to use accurate forcing sources such as those obtained by propagating buoy data.

Improving the forecast quality of near-term climate projections by constraining internal variability based on decadal predictions and observations

Projections of near-term climate change in the next few decades are subject to substantial uncertainty from internal climate variability. Approaches to reduce this uncertainty by constraining the phasing of climate variability based on large ensembles of climate simulations have recently been developed. These approaches select those ensemble members that are in closer agreement with sea surface temperature patterns from either observations or initialized decadal predictions. Previous studies demonstrated the benefits of these constraints for projections up to 20 years into the future, but these studies applied the constraints to different ensembles of climate simulations, which prevents a consistent comparison of methods or identification of specific advantages of one method over another. Here we apply several methods to constrain internal variability phases, using either observations or decadal predictions as constraining reference, to an identical multi-model ensemble consisting of 311 simulations from 37 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), and compare their forecast qualities. We show that constraining based on both observations and decadal predictions significantly enhances the skill of 10 and 20-year projections for near-surface temperatures in some regions, and that constraining based on decadal predictions leads to the largest added value in terms of probabilistic skill. We further explore the sensitivity to different implementations of the constraint that focus on the patterns of either internal variability alone or a combination of internal variability and long-term changes in response to forcing. Looking into the near-term future, all variations of the constraints suggest an accelerated warming of large parts of the Northern Hemisphere for the period 2020–2039, in comparison to the unconstrained CMIP6 ensemble.

Impacts of climate change in taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity in snakes in largest dry forest ecoregion, the Gran Chaco

The impacts of anthropogenic activities have significantly contributed to recent and future climate changes worldwide. The future effects of climate change on biodiversity have been intensively studied globally over the past two decades. Currently, dry ecoregions are among the most threatened ecosystems in the world. In South America, three such seasonal dry ecoregions stand out: the Cerrado, Caatinga, and the Gran Chaco. Among these, the Chaco has experienced high deforestation rates and landscape degradation over the last decade, making it a top priority for conservation efforts. In this study, we employed ecological niche modeling to estimate the present and future distribution of snakes in the Chaco region. Our goal was to assess how snake diversity will change with projected climate changes across this geographic area. Our findings suggest that snake assemblages in the Chaco will undergo significant changes under future climatic conditions, with a clear trend toward biotic homogenization of the ecoregion and a decrease in species richness. These negative changes will likely extend to the protected areas within the Chaco, resulting in biotic homogenization and a loss of species richness.

Incorporation of RCM-simulated spatial details into climate change projections derived from global climate models

Regional climate models (RCMs) exhibit greater potential than global models (GCMs) in capturing geographical details of climate change arising from orography and land–water distribution, but dynamical downscalings are only available for a limited number of GCMs. The full GCM ensembles are much more representative. Furthermore, the current EURO-CORDEX RCM runs most likely underestimate future warming. Thus, neither GCMs nor RCMs as such constitute an ideal tool for preparing reliable spatially detailed climate projections. This study introduces an easy-to-use GCM-RCM hybrid method that takes advantage of the best properties of both model categories. The large-scale response is adopted from GCM simulations, but the pattern is enriched with RCM-simulated details. For temperature projections, the procedure resembles the conventional pattern-scaling technique. However, the spatial averages of temperature change used for scaling are calculated over an area surrounding each grid point, either by giving an equal weight to the entire area or by taking into account the land–sea distribution. For precipitation, a linearised version of the method has been formulated. The method is demonstrated by integrating spatial details from 12 EURO-CORDEX RCM simulations with the CMIP6 multi-GCM mean projection. The resulting temperature responses include RCM-generated spatial details of up to ∼\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\sim$$\\end{document} 1 ∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$^\\circ$$\\end{document}C while effectively correcting the general tendency of RCMs to underestimate warming in Europe. For precipitation, geographical details originating from the different CORDEX runs tend to diverge, resulting in a low signal-to-noise ratio. This probably reflects the substantial impact of internal variability on small-scale changes in precipitation.

Assessment of hydrological parameter uncertainty versus climate projection spread on urban streamflow and floods

Assessing the uncertainty associated with projections of climate change impacts on hydrological processes can be challenging due to multiple sources of uncertainties within and between climate and hydrological models. Here we compare the effects of parameter uncertainty in a hydrological model to inter-model spread from climate projections on hydrological projections of urban streamflow in response to climate change. Four hourly climate model outputs from the RCP8.5 scenario were used as inputs to a distributed hydrologic model (SWMM) calibrated using a Bayesian approach to summarize uncertainty intervals for both model parameters and streamflow predictions. Continuous simulation of 100 years of streamflow generated 90 % prediction intervals for selected exceedance probabilities and flood frequencies prediction intervals from single climate models were compared to the inter climate model spread resulting from a single calibration of the SWMM model. There will be an increase in future flows with exceedance probabilities of 0.5 %-50 % and 2-year floods for all climate projections and all 21st century periods, for the modeled Ohio (USA) watershed. Floods with return periods of ≥ 5 years increase relative to the historical from mid-century (2046–2070) for most climate projections and parameter sets. Across the four climate models, the 90th percentile increase in flows and floods ranges from 17-108 % and 11–63 % respectively. Using multiple calibration parameter sets and climate projections helped capture the most likely hydrologic outcomes, as well as upper and lower bounds of future predictions. For this watershed, hydrological model parameter uncertainty was large relative to inter climate model spread, for near term moderate to high flows and for many flood frequencies. The uncertainty quantification and comparison approach developed here may be helpful in decision-making and design of engineering infrastructure in urban watersheds.

GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis for groundwater dam site selection in an arid and semi-arid region of Algeria

Securing reliable water resources in arid and semi-arid regions poses a significant challenge for decision-makers, especially under recent droughts and projected climate change. This need is particularly acute in the M'zi Wadi basin, located in the north-central part of Algeria, where its surface water projects are challenged by low and erratic rainfall coupled with high water evaporation, adversely impacting its water resources sustainability. Implementing water harvesting techniques in such arid regions, specifically groundwater dams, can be regarded as an effective water scarcity adaptation strategy, and their effectiveness is dependent on the optimal site selection which must consider many complex criteria. The paper aims to identify potential sites for groundwater dams in the M'zi Wadi basin using a multi-criteria decision-making approach in a GIS environment based on seven socio-economic and natural factors such as rainfall, stream order, land use/land cover (LULC), geology, Topographic wetness index (TWI), and distances from faults and villages. The results showed that approximately 1.27% of the M'zi Wadi basin area is highly suitable for groundwater dam siting. Four candidate sites were identified as having favourable conditions for installing new groundwater dams based on field and geophysical survey data conducted along the alluvial aquifer of the M'zi Wadi basin, and the remaining areas were deemed unsuitable due to specific constraints. The suitability of the selected sites was validated through a comparative analysis with existing groundwater dams. The results of the present study could offer valuable insights for decision-makers at all levels, facilitating informed judgments during the initial planning of groundwater dam construction. Furthermore, the methodology can be replicated in other data-scarce regions under similar arid climate conditions.