Climate Change Projections Research Articles

Climate change and gastroenteritis projections in Albanian children

Abstract Background Human health can be affected by climate in direct and indirect ways. Increasing temperatures may affect ecosystems, water safety, and exposure to waterborne diseases. This is the first work in Albania aiming to demonstrate the link between gastroenteritis rate and climate in the country. This research was supported by UNICEF Albania through the WASH Global Thematic Fund, but it doesn’t necessarily represent UNICEF’s position. Methods Epidemiological surveillance reports of the period 2006-2022 were used for the yearly incidence of gastroenteritis in children 0-14 years old. Years 2020 and 2021 were not included because of pandemic confounding potential. Historic data for calculating the average summer temperatures were retrieved from timeanddate.com repository. Pearson coefficient is calculated to quantify the associations and linear regression is applied to project the increased rate in the future. Results There was a statistical association between gastroenteritis rate and summer temperatures during the study period (Pearson coefficient=0.78, p = 0.001). There was a tendency that in years with hotter summers higher incidence of gastroenteritis was reported by the health system. For each degree (Celsius) increase in the average summer day temperatures, the risk of gastroenteritis in children is expected to increase by 644/100 000 (CI 95%: 317 - 972). An excess rate of 966/100 000 is expected in the case of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change medium scenario projection of 1.5o C average temperature increase. That implies more than 4830 additional new cases every year in children 0-14 years old, attributed to climate change in the future in Albania. Conclusions The analysis demonstrated excess gastroenteritis risk may be related to higher summer temperatures observed in Albania. The expected gastroenteritis risk increase in a warmer future should be addressed by improvements in sanitation, education of parents and epidemiological intelligence. Key messages • A warmer climate is expected to affect the health by increasing the risk for diarrheic diseases. • Children will be the most at-risk population category.

Accounting for adaptation when projecting climate change impacts on health: a review of methods

Abstract Exposure to high and low temperatures can cause harm to health. Temperature related health effects are likely to increase in the future, due to global warming, unless populations can adapt to a warming environment. Adaptation occurs through multiple mechanisms, however, the amount that populations may adapt to rising temperatures is unclear. There are currently a variety of methods used to include adaptation in projections, but it is unclear how underlying assumptions are made and whether they are based on evidence. With increasing interest from decisionmakers around implementation of adaptation strategies, an important step in responding to climate change will be to understand how adaptation can statistically be incorporated when estimating future health burdens. A systematic scoping review was conducted to identify all quantitative methods to include adaptation in studies projecting future temperature-related health impacts under climate change. Approaches employed in studies were coded into methodological categories. Advantages and disadvantages of each method were also explored, along with the empirical basis for model assumptions. Eight methodological categories were identified from the included fifty-nine studies. More recent methods of including adaptation in projections use a combination of approaches or modelling adaptation based on specific adaptation strategies or socioeconomic conditions. The most used approaches in the literature to model adaptation are heat threshold shifts and reductions in the exposure-response slope. Just under 20% of studies were categorised as using an empirical basis for statistical assumptions. Including adaptation in projections considerably reduced the projected temperature-mortality burden in the future. Researchers should ensure that all future impact assessments include adaptation uncertainty in projections and assumptions are based on empirical evidence where possible. Key messages • Including adaptation in future projections considerably affects temperature-related mortality numbers. • All future impact assessments should include adaptation uncertainty and assumptions should be based on evidence where possible.

Water quality–fisheries tradeoffs in a changing climate underscore the need for adaptive ecosystem–based management

Changes driven by both unanticipated human activities and management actions are creating wicked management landscapes in freshwater and marine ecosystems that require new approaches to support decision-making. By linking a predictive model of nutrient- and temperature-driven bottom hypoxia with observed commercial fishery harvest data from Lake Erie (United States-Canada) over the past century (1928-2022) and climate projections (2030-2099), we show how simple, yet robust models and routine monitoring data can be used to identify tradeoffs associated with nutrient management and guide decision-making in even the largest of aquatic ecosystems now and in the future. Our approach enabled us to assess planned nutrient load reduction targets designed to mitigate nutrient-driven hypoxia and show why they appear overly restrictive based on current fishery needs, indicating tradeoffs between water quality and fisheries management goals. At the same time, our temperature results show that projected climate change impacts on hypoxic extent will require more stringent nutrient regulations in the future. Beyond providing a rare example of bottom hypoxia driving changes in fishery harvests at an ecosystem scale, our study illustrates the need for adaptive ecosystem-based management, which can be informed by simple predictive models that can be readily applied over long time periods, account for tradeoffs across multiple management sectors (e.g., water quality, fisheries), and address ecosystem nonstationarity (e.g., climate change impacts on management targets). Such approaches will be critical for maintaining valued ecosystem services in the many aquatic systems worldwide that are vulnerable to multiple drivers of environmental change.

Saltwater intrusion simulations in coastal karstic aquifers related to climate change scenarios

Coastal zones are crucial ecosystems supporting significant biodiversity and pertinent socio-economic activities. However, anthropogenic development contributes to socio-environmental complexities, particularly public water supply threats caused by climate change. This research presents a case study on the north-western coast of Yucatan, Mexico, which models potential saltwater intrusion in groundwater for multiple projections of sea level rise and recharge change due to climate change and its implications for the public water supply of the regional population and ecosystem. For this purpose, a previously calibrated and validated numerical model is employed, adapting its boundary conditions, keeping its calibrated hydrogeologic parameters, and considering the 2040 and 2100 climate change projections. Simulation results show that under these projections, significant saltwater intrusion may occur, reducing freshwater thickness due to increased salinity in groundwater and a loss of freshwater sources resulting from brackish-saline wedge intrusion. These scenarios are of particular concern as freshwater in this coastal region is the main source for public water supply and for freshwater input in coastal ecosystems. Moreover, this study underscores the susceptibility of karstic aquifers to salinization, especially in the face of rising sea levels, given their unique hydrogeological characteristics and substantial responsiveness to marine forcings. In spite of the uncertainties in global climate change predictions, this study enhances our understanding of the dynamics of these unique aquifers, and presents future saltwater intrusion projections that offer valuable technical insights to design and implement pertinent and resilient coastal aquifer management strategies.

Integrating remote sensing modeling for drought assessment and vegetation monitoring in El Tarf, Algeria: a 40-year analysis

The escalating frequency and intensity of drought events, exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, present critical challenges to hydrological resources, ecosystem resilience, and agricultural productivity. In North Africa, and specifically Algeria, comprehending the spatiotemporal patterns of drought is essential for sustainable water resource management and ecological conservation. This investigation focuses on the El Tarf region, located in northeastern Algeria, recognized for its ecological diversity and agricultural relevance. Employing a synergistic methodology, this study integrates the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for long-term drought severity evaluation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to monitor vegetation phenology and health over time. Utilizing the computational power of Google Earth Engine, we process extensive temporal datasets of SPEI spanning from 1980 to 2023, complemented by high-resolution satellite imagery for NDVI computation. This comprehensive approach facilitates an in-depth analysis of drought dynamics, their severity, and impacts on vegetative cover in El Tarf over the past four decades. Our findings indicate significant long-term drought trends, with notable dry spells occurring between 1994 and 2003. Severe drought events were particularly pronounced in December 2022 (SPI = -2.50) and May 2002 (SPI = -2.2), correlating with substantial precipitation deficits. Although areas experiencing extreme drought have diminished, there has been an increase in moderate drought occurrences, suggesting an uptick in drought frequency, which poses risks to hydrological resources and ecosystem health. These observed patterns align with regional climate change projections, highlighting an urgent necessity for adaptive management strategies in agriculture and water resources.

Climate Change and Cities of Lithuania: Threats, Problems and Prerequisites for Solution

The emerging threats of climate change and their impacts on cities and residents are increasingly highlighting the need to assess whether countries are adequately prepared for the potential consequences of this process. While many international agreements on climate change, sustainable development and environmental protection have been adopted, countries often face various local obstacles that hinder their implementation. To address these issues, this paper reviews the climate change projections, emerging threats and hazards in Lithuania and their potential impacts on the country’s cities and highlights the main challenges in preparing for these growing threats. This article presents an evaluation of the climate change forecasts and past climate events in three selected Lithuanian cities—Vilnius, Kaunas and Klaipėda. The study includes a diagnostic assessment of the climate changes since 1961 and climate change forecasts up to 2100, based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, using regional and global climate models. It identifies the impacts of potential climate change consequences on cities, forming the basis for the evaluation of the urban situation in the country. The urban situation is assessed in terms of legislation, urban development, environmental requirements and the development of safety infrastructure. Based on the evaluation of urban development, preliminary proposals are provided for the creation of a resilient living environment. One of the key proposals in shaping the living environment—which could be particularly significant in adapting to emerging threats—is the complex formation of new, sustainable urban structures that take into account the social, ecological and economic factors of climate change and other rising threats.

Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low‐Cloud Feedback

AbstractHow low clouds respond to warming constitutes a key uncertainty for climate projections. Here we observationally constrain low‐cloud feedback through a controlling factor analysis based on ridge regression. We find a moderately positive global low‐cloud feedback (0.45 W , 90% range 0.18–0.72 W ), about twice the mean value (0.22 W ) of 16 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We link this discrepancy to a pervasive model mean‐state bias: models underestimate the low‐cloud response to warming because (a) they systematically underestimate present‐day tropical marine low‐cloud amount, and (b) the low‐cloud sensitivity to warming is proportional to this present‐day low‐cloud amount. Our results hence highlight the importance of reducing model biases in both the mean state of clouds and their sensitivity to environmental factors for accurate climate change projections.

Global change drives potential niche contraction and range shift of globally threatened African vulture

Human-induced global change poses an increasingly severe threat to biodiversity, with species having limited population sizes being particularly vulnerable. Mapping and modeling the distribution ranges of such species, along with detecting potential range shifts and contractions at both local and regional scales, are essential for developing effective conservation plans. Ruppell's vulture Gyps rueppelli, an ecologically important bird species native to Africa, is experiencing a rapid decline in its range. The purpose of this study is to map and model potential regional spatio-temporal distribution of Ruppell's vulture in Africa, alongside detecting the possibility of the species' range shifts and contractions. A total of 804 rarefied localities were identified where the Ruppell's vulture was the dominant bird species. This study employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to perform species distribution modeling for the Ruppell's vulture. The modeling considered current climate conditions (1970s-2000s) as a baseline, along with two future climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSPs 245 and 585) for two future time periods (2050s and 2070s). The model's performance was evaluated by optimizing settings and examining the Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC-ROC). Among the 13 bioclimatic and anthropogenic variables included in the model, four (isothermality, cropland expansion, anthropogenic biomes, and urban expansion (in order of importance)) emerged as the most influential drivers of Ruppell's vulture regional distribution. All considered Species distribution models (SDMs) achieved high predictive performance, with AUC-ROC values exceeding 0.9.The model predicted a total of approximately 19,453 ha of suitable habitat for Ruppell's vultures in Africa, with East Africa identified as the most prominent region under the current climate scenario. Isothermality (38.8%) was the primary factor influencing Ruppell's vulture distribution, followed by agricultural expansion (29.9%) and anthropogenic biomes (7.2%) in the face of global change. The results reveal considerable future habitat loss (up to 61%) for Ruppell's vultures in the study area, alongside an eastward range shift (longitudinal axis) by the 2050s under projected climate change scenarios. These imply that Ruppell's vultures face imminent population decline and range shift due to significant habitat loss and climate change. Hence, prioritizing the development and implementation of a coordinated conservation program that incorporates captive breeding and assisted migration is critical to save this vulture species in its native African range.

Effects of changes in temperature and precipitation as climate factors that influence the spread of climate-related diseases: a systematic review

ABSTRACT Climate change is an environmental problem that leads to extreme flood and drought events in various geographical regions. The review seeks to establish pertinent issues around changes in temperature and precipitation as climate factors which have been under-researched. It will be established whether the spread of disease and other human risks have been reported under various temperature and precipitation levels; whether sound adaptation measures are in place; communities are provided with awareness toward adaptation methods; and educated on how to deal with mental problems and anxiety caused by climate change. The review has established that little research has modeled variation in human characteristics like age group differences and health fluctuations with climate change, under a wide spectrum of temperature and precipitation. Southern African countries’ research also lacks projection of climate change impacts and risk distribution maps for vector borne diseases under RCP2.6, RCP4.4, RCP6.0 and RCP8.0. In addition, there has been bias in previous studies regarding a combination of temperature and precipitation, as well as non-climatic factors that may be favorable for spread and transmission of specified VBDs. Recommendations from this review could be adopted by countries in order to protect communities’ health.

Resolution dependence of southern Atlantic Ocean stratocumulus decks

AbstractOceanic stratocumulus decks of clouds are among the largest contributors to the Earth's radiation budget, covering around a fifth of the planet's surface and reflecting a large part of the incoming solar radiation. Unfortunately, these clouds are not well represented in modern climate models, resulting in one of the leading causes of uncertainty in climate change projections. This contribution analyses this issue from a novel perspective and sheds light on the mechanisms behind the misrepresentation and resolution dependence of these large clouds. The analysis is based on realistic week‐long simulations performed over a km oceanic domain. Four horizontal resolutions, between 4.4 and 0.55 km, are employed, resulting in a timely investigation, especially in light of the high resolutions employed by present and near‐future climate projections. Results show that the liquid cloud water, the main contributor to the simulated grid‐scale clouds, decreases with a power‐law decay as the resolution increases, whereas the water vapour, responsible for subgrid‐scale clouds, is much less affected by the grid spacing. The leading cause is identified as an imbalance between the rates of change of the advection and turbulence parametrisation terms. In order to verify this observation and provide a possible mitigation to the issue, a second set of simulations is performed where the turbulence parametrisation is tuned. The strategy proves to be successful, confirming the hypotheses and resulting not only in a resolution‐independent radiation budget but also cloud coverage.

Container buildings used for residential and business purposes in Johannesburg, South Africa and potential heat-related health risks

Background Outdoor and indoor air temperature affects human health and wellbeing. Climate change projections suggest that global temperatures will continue to increase, and this poses a threat to health. Buildings (for housing and business purposes) that can protect humans from the adverse effects of temperature are essential, especially in the context of climate change. Method In this cross-sectional study, we measured the indoor temperature inside shipping containers comprising a seven-storey block of apartments and businesses in Johannesburg, South Africa for 14 days. We assessed indoor temperature and relative humidity; evaluated measured temperatures in relation to thresholds known to be associated with adverse health risks; and sought to understand heat-health perceptions and symptoms of people living and working in shipping container units. Results Median indoor apparent temperature (AT) (a combination of temperature and relative humidity) was 16°C with values ranging from 6°C (observed at 8:00) to 42°C (observed at 17:00). Insulated units had temperatures between 2°C and 9°C cooler than the uninsulated unit. Heat-health risks from AT exposure were likely in all units, although there was variation in the number of occurrences that AT measurements exceeded the four symptom bands of caution, extreme caution, danger and extreme danger. Indoor AT was found to be 7°C higher on average when compared to outdoor AT. Some participants believed that their units were hot during hot weather and most people opened windows or did nothing during hot weather. Few participants reported experiencing adverse heat-health impacts, except for experiencing headaches (58%) and feeling tired or weak (40%). Conclusion Residents, tenants, or business owners using shipping containers should consider insulation installation and adequate windows/air conditioning for ventilation, especially in hot climates. Further research and awareness regarding heat-health risks of living or working in these spaces is needed.

Exploring the role of national weather services in climate change knowledge and communication: an international survey

This study investigates the roles, perspectives, and communication strategies of National Meteorological Services (NMS) concerning climate monitoring, climate change projections, and the attribution of meteorological phenomena to climate variations. Using a survey distributed to 131 of the 193 National Meteorological Services affiliated with the World Meteorological Organization, we explore how these entities contribute to and communicate about the science of climate change. The survey targeted their involvement in observing and recording climate data, making climate projections, attributing specific weather events to climate change, and their methods of communicating these issues to the public and government officials. Responses were received from 44 countries, reflecting diverse levels of economic development and capabilities in handling, and disseminating complex climate information. The results show a strong engagement in traditional meteorological tasks, with a varied approach to the scientific study of climate change effects and public communication strategies. This study highlights the critical role of NMS in climate change research and underscores the challenges they face in effectively communicating complex climate information, which is crucial for public understanding and policymaking.

Flash flood prediction modeling in the hilly regions of Southeastern Bangladesh: A machine learning attempt on present and future climate scenarios

Flash floods are highly destructive, and their frequency and intensity are expected to escalate due to climatic changes. This study thus investigated flash flood susceptibility (FFS) by applying machine learning algorithms and climate projection to predict both present and future hazard scenarios in the southeastern hilly regions of Bangladesh. To predict FFS, we evaluated twelve flood-influencing variables: elevation (EL), slope (SL), aspect (AS), drainage density (DD), distance to stream (DS), topography roughness index (TRI), stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), soil permeability (SP), precipitation (PR), land use and land cover (LULC) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Earth observation data, field surveys, and past flood records were used to create a detailed flood inventory. Among the machine learning models tested, the random forest (RF) algorithm outperformed others, including support vector machine (SVC), logistic regression (LR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and was subsequently used for flood susceptibility mapping based on future precipitation projections under two Sixth Coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) climate change scenarios: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. Our findings indicated that the areas at high to very high risk of flooding are projected to increase significantly under both the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Initially, around 38 % of the studied region had high to very high flood susceptibility, but this is expected to rise to 40–42 % over the projected time periods. These spatial delineations of flood-prone areas can provide guidance for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to address the adverse impacts of flash flooding in the hilly river basins of Bangladesh.

Climate, altitude, yield, and varieties drive lodging in sugarcane: A random forest approach to predict risk levels on a tropical island

Lodging is a critical factor in reducing sugarcane yields worldwide, mainly due to the selection of highly productive varieties. Understanding the response of yield and lodging to the combined effects of climate, sugarcane traits, and varieties has become a priority under climate change. The aim of this study was to better understand the influence of plant characteristics, climate, and soil conditions on the trade-off between sugarcane yield and lodging on the tropical Reunion Island. Data from a 14-year experimental network run by the eRcane breeding institute were used to build random-forest models to predict sugarcane yield and lodging classes, i.e. <10 %, 10–50 %, >50 % of lodging. Yield and lodging probability were then predicted across the island using climate change projections from 2015 to 2035. Both yield and lodging were highly influenced by the variety and characteristics (height and tillering) and climatic conditions. Areas on the island at high altitudes were subject to high probability of lodging (>50 %), while in areas with high wind speed, the risk of moderate lodging (10–50 %) increased. Overall, conditions or plant characteristics that favor higher yields increased lodging probability. Nevertheless, the correlation between yield and lodging probability varied considerably depending on the variety, highlighting the importance of sugarcane characteristics in resistance to lodging. This study highlights the fact that promoting more productive varieties in recent decades has led to an increase in lodging and identified critical environments on the island prone to increased risk of lodging.

Faster dieback of rainforests altering tropical carbon sinks under climate change

Carbon sinks in the tropical rainforests are restricting the global warming to attain unprecedented heights. However, deforestation and climate change is switching them to a net carbon source at some of the deforested patches. Using machine learning algorithm we predict that more than 50% of the tropical rainforests will undergo rapid “Savannisation”/transformation by the end of 21st century under high emission scenarios. Climate change projects ‘El Niño-like’ warming condition, which decreases precipitation in the rainforests and favors atmospheric dryness. In Central Amazonia vegetation degradation saturates the carbon sink and more than 25% of the rainforests will transform into a net carbon source due to increase in soil microbial respiration. This transition will accelerate if Eastern Pacific/Global temperature warms beyond 1.5◦K/2.3◦K (by 2050’s) and will undergo a steeper transit by ~2075 (2.45◦K/3.8◦K warming). This alteration will exacerbate global warming and has consequences for policies that are intended to stabilize Earth’s climate.

Late Pleistocene to early Holocene vegetation and environmental changes in the tropical Leizhou Peninsula, South China: New evidence from the n-alkane record

Understanding past long-term vegetation responses to regional or even global climate change and forcing mechanisms is essential to future climate change projections. However, due to the lack of long-term terrestrial sedimentary records, there are few studies focusing on vegetation changes in tropical southern China since the last glacial period, especially from the perspective of peat n-alkane records. Here, we have presented a peat core record from the Xialu peatland in the northern Leizhou Peninsula, and n-alkanes were investigated in conjunction with multiple proxy indicators. Our results showed that the organic matter sources were mainly a mixture of aquatic and terrestrial vegetation, with terrestrial vegetation accounting for most of the bulk organic matter composition. From ∼44.1 to 29 cal kyr BP, the organic matter source was mainly dominated by terrestrial vegetation, which corresponds to warm and humid conditions. From 29 to 14 cal kyr BP, the input of the terrestrial vegetation was reduced, the aquatic vegetation input increased, implying cool and dry conditions. From 14 to 9.3 cal kyr BP, the climate gradually became warmer and wetter, and terrestrial vegetation dominated in this area. Overall, the climatic conditions from the Xialu peatland were generally consistent with other records from adjacent areas. Our results suggest that, during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a substantial drop in regional and global sea levels may have been the main cause of drought in tropical southern China on orbital timescales. Meanwhile, several climatic fluctuations on millennial timescales could have been influenced by the variability of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

The effects of climate change on Pinus tabulaeformis radial growth in the Xiaowutai Mountains, northern China

Clarifying the climate change effects on the radial growth of trees has implications for sustainable forest management, especially under global warming. To investigate tree growth responses to regional climate change of Xiaowutai Mountain, four Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) ring-width index chronologies were established at different elevations (1290–1600 m). Species growth trends were estimated using climate change projections derived from global climate models. The results show: (1) the four ring-width chronologies exhibited strong statistical characteristics, making them suitable for dendroclimatology studies. Radial growth-climate relationships were highly consistent, showing a negative correlation with previous September temperatures and current May–June temperatures, as well as a positively correlated with precipitation and Palmer Drought Severity Index during the corresponding period; and (2) climate change scenarios revealed that temperature will gradually increase on the Xiaowutai Mountain, and only a slight variation in precipitation is expected. Chinese pine radial growth may show a decline under future climate change.

Impact of City-Wide Diesel Generator Use on Air Quality in Quito, Ecuador, during a Nationwide Electricity Crisis

As climate change intensifies and 2023 sets the record for the hottest year, the Amazonian region faces severe drought, leading to a hydroelectricity crisis. This study examines the effects of using environmentally harmful backup power solutions, which are all too common in developing countries—specifically, diesel-powered generators—on urban air quality in Quito, Ecuador, during the hydroelectric crisis of 2023/2024. The impact of the blackouts on air pollution is assessed by comparing it to a reference period before the crisis and to an earlier year with similar weather conditions. The findings indicate that extended blackouts (up to 8 h per day) considerably increased concentrations of SO2 (180%), CO (43%), NO2 (39%), and PM2.5 (20%) compared to ‘normal’ conditions. Conversely, O3 pollution levels decreased (−6%). Our findings suggest potential respiratory and cardiovascular health risks for the urban population, highlighting the urgent need for improved energy infrastructure and cleaner backup power solutions in the developing world. Addressing these challenges is critical for ensuring a healthier and more sustainable urban future amidst climate change projections.

Increased offspring size and reduced gestation length in an ectothermic vertebrate under a worst-case climate change scenario

As global temperatures continue to rise, understanding the impacts of warming environments has become increasingly important. Temperature is especially relevant for ectothermic organisms which depend upon consistent and predictable annual temperature cycles for reproduction and development. However, additional research is required in this area to elucidate the potential impacts of climate change on future generations. To understand how projected increases in environmental temperatures may impact reproductive outcomes within natural populations of ectothermic vertebrates, we manipulated minimum ambient temperatures during gestation in Red-sided garter snakes (Thamnophis sirtalis parietalis). Wild snakes were collected in the Interlake region of Manitoba, Canada during their spring mating season and allowed to mate in controlled conditions. For the duration of gestation, mated females were placed into one of two ambient thermal conditions: temperatures emulating those found in the species’ natural habitat or temperatures with a consistent 5 °C increase to match end-of-century climate change projections. We recorded observations for each litter and all neonates resulting from controlled mating trials. We observed no difference in litter sizes or birth rates between thermal conditions. However, we observed a significant reduction in gestation length and significant increase to neonate body mass and body condition associated with increased ambient temperatures. These results suggest that increased minimum temperatures during gestation may confer reproductive benefits for the northern populations of this species even under the most extreme current modeled warming predictions. We discuss the broader implications of this effect, including possible negative ecological outcomes.

The assessment of groundwater reserves, quality, and balance in Quang Nam region, Vietnam: using MIKE BASIN and MODFLOW models

Abstract This comprehensive study examines the groundwater reserves and quality within the Quang Nam region, Vietnam, utilising the integrated MIKE BASIN and MODFLOW models. The research systematically analyses the coastal and key economic zones, covering 259,039 hectares, including urban and rural districts. The study delineates the region's hydrogeology, revealing a significant volume of groundwater reserves with a static water level, suggesting robust aquifer systems, particularly in the Dien Ban and Thang Binh districts. Furthermore, hydrogeochemical analysis assessed groundwater quality, indicating suitability for agriculture, which accounts for 81% of the region's water demand and other uses. The study's novelty lies in its dual approach of quantifying groundwater reserves and evaluating their quality, addressing a critical regional water resource management gap. The findings present an optimistic scenario for the current and future sustainability of water resources, with the calculated groundwater reserves demonstrating ample capacity to support the varied needs of the region. This research establishes a foundational understanding of Quang Nam's hydrological system. It provides strategic insights for sustainable water management in response to socio-economic development and climate change projections up to 2030. Climate projections for Quảng Nam province under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate significant increases in rainfall, temperature, sea level rise, and saltwater intrusion, highlighting the critical need for adaptive strategies to protect local ecosystems and communities from these escalating climate threats.