Climate Change In Switzerland Research Articles

Fostering Reasoning in the Politically Disengaged: The Role of Deliberative Minipublics

Political engagement is vital to the functioning of democratic systems, yet a significant portion of the population remains disengaged from conventional political activities as voting. These individuals often lack the opportunities and motivation to cultivate their reasoning abilities for understanding politics. This study explores the potential of deliberative minipublics to foster the development of reasoning skills among those excluded from the political discourse. By focusing on individuals with low levels of political engagement, the study investigates three minipublics on the topic of climate change in Switzerland. Utilizing the Deliberative Reason Index, the analysis uncovers how dialogue-driven engagement can enhance political understanding and involvement. The results demonstrate the potential of deliberative practices to bridge the gap between the politically disengaged and the complex world of political participation, offering fresh insights into citizens’ capabilities to deliberate on intricate issues.

The footprint of human-induced climate change on heat-related deaths in the summer of 2022 in Switzerland

Human-induced climate change is leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, which are severely affecting the health of the population. The exceptional heat during the summer of 2022 in Europe is an example, with record-breaking temperatures only below the infamous 2003 summer. High ambient temperatures are associated with many health outcomes, including premature mortality. However, there is limited quantitative evidence on the contribution of anthropogenic activities to the substantial heat-related mortality observed in recent times. Here we combined methods in climate epidemiology and attribution to quantify the heat-related mortality burden attributed to human-induced climate change in Switzerland during the summer of 2022. We first estimated heat-mortality association in each canton and age/sex population between 1990 and 2017 in a two-stage time-series analysis. We then calculated the mortality attributed to heat in the summer of 2022 using observed mortality, and compared it with the hypothetical heat-related burden that would have occurred in absence of human-induced climate change. This counterfactual scenario was derived by regressing the Swiss average temperature against global mean temperature in both observations and CMIP6 models. We estimate 623 deaths [95% empirical confidence interval (95% eCI): 151–1068] due to heat between June and August 2022, corresponding to 3.5% of all-cause mortality. More importantly, we find that 60% of this burden (370 deaths [95% eCI: 133–644]) could have been avoided in absence of human-induced climate change. Older women were affected the most, as well as populations in western and southern Switzerland and more urbanized areas. Our findings demonstrate that human-induced climate change was a relevant driver of the exceptional excess health burden observed in the 2022 summer in Switzerland.

Projections of future anthropogenic climate change in Switzerland using multi-GCM modeling

Projections of future anthropogenic climate change in Switzerland using multi-GCM modeling

Projected impact of heat on mortality and labour productivity under climate change in Switzerland

Abstract. Extreme temperatures have reached unprecedented levels in many regions of the globe due to climate change, and a further increase is expected. Besides other consequences, high temperatures increase the mortality risk and severely affect the labour productivity of workers. We perform a high-resolution spatial analysis to assess the impacts of heat on mortality and labour productivity in Switzerland and project their development under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, considering that no socio-economic changes take place. The model is based on the risk framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which combines the three risk components: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We model the two impact categories in the same spatially explicit framework, and we integrate uncertainties into the analysis by a Monte Carlo simulation. We model first that about 658 deaths are associated with heat exposure currently each year in Switzerland. Second, the economic costs caused by losses in labour productivity amount to around CHF 665 million (approx. USD 700 million) per year. Should we remain on an RCP8.5 emissions pathway, these values may double (for mortality) or even triple (for labour productivity) by the end of the century. Under an RCP2.6 scenario impacts are expected to slightly increase and peak around mid-century, when climate is assumed to stop warming. Even though uncertainties in the model are large, the underlying trend in impacts is unequivocal. The results of the study are valuable information for political discussions and allow for a better understanding of the cost of inaction.

Opportunities for passive cooling to mitigate the impact of climate change in Switzerland

Energy systems need to decarbonize rapidly whilst satisfying heating and cooling needs. In Switzerland, residential cooling has so far only a small impact on the national energy demand, but climate change and a larger uptake of cooling devices are expected to lead to future increases. This requires novel approaches for sustainable cooling solutions suitable for implementation at a national scale. Here, we explore the potential of night ventilation and window shading to reduce the buildings cooling demand in a changing climate. A physical bottom-up approach is used to simulate residential space cooling demand and to identify the passive cooling potential whilst considering a detailed representation of the Swiss building stock, featuring building age, construction properties, regional climate, urban layout and occupant behaviour. A supervised building type classification approach is applied to enable up-scaling to the national level. Results show that in 2050, the residential Swiss building stock will require a national cooling demand of around 10.2 TWh for a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario 4.5. Under such future climatic conditions, we simulated a potential to reduce the total cooling demand by 84%, with both passive cooling solutions combined. Individually, window shading could reduce cooling demands by 71% and night ventilation by 38%. We found that newer buildings (built after 2000) already account for about 50% of the total current cooling energy demand. Results demonstrate that night ventilation and window shading have the potential to mitigate the impact of climate change in Switzerland and to improve the sustainability and resilience of residential cooling.

How COVID-19 Displaced Climate Change: Mediated Climate Change Activism and Issue Attention in the Swiss Media and Online Sphere

ABSTRACT Issues continuously compete for attention in the news media and on social media. Climate change is one of the most urgent problems for society and (re)gained wide public attention in 2019 through the global climate strike protest movement. However, we hypothesize that the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 challenged the role of climate change as a routine issue. We use extensive news media and Twitter data to explore if and how the pandemic as a so-called killer issue has shifted public attention away from the issue of climate change in Switzerland. Results show that the climate debate fell victim to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the news media and the Twitter-sphere. Given the vast dominance of the pandemic, there is a strong indication this finding applies similarly to various other issues. Additional hashtag co-occurrence analysis shows that some climate activists react to this development and try to connect the issue of climate change to the pandemic. We argue that suppression of climate change by the pandemic is a problem for its long-term resolution, as it seems to have turned climate change back into a struggling issue.

FACTORS AFFECTING FARMER'S CLIMATE RISK PERCEPTION IN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES : EVIDENCE FROM SWITZERLAND AND GHANA

Climate change is the primary challenge of agricultural production in developing and developed countries. Farmers' perception of climate change is the critical driver in encouraging farmers to take autonomous adaptation practices. Thus, this study aimed to identify factors affecting farmers' perception of climate change in developing and developed countries and take Ghana and Switzerland as the study cases. The study used data from 378 cocoa farmers in Ghana and 109 farmers in Switzerland. The data was obtained from a structured interview and survey and contained socio-economic and farm characteristics of farmers. This study employed an ordered probit regression to estimate the factors affecting farmers' perception of climate change. The results show that landholding, farm income, and education significantly affect farmer perception of climate change. Landholding and farm income significantly affect farmer perception of climate change in Switzerland and Ghana. But, education only significantly affects the farmers' perception of climate change in Switzerland. Meanwhile, age and crops/livestock ownership does not significantly affect farmers' perception of climate change in Ghana and Switzerland. The results also show that Switzerland's farmers have a stronger perception of climate change than farmers in Ghana.
 Keywords: climate risk perception, climate change perception, Ghana, Switzerland

CH2018 – National climate scenarios for Switzerland: How to construct consistent multi-model projections from ensembles of opportunity

The latest Swiss Climate Scenarios (CH2018), released in November 2018, consist of several datasets derived through various methods that provide robust and relevant information on climate change in Switzerland. The scenarios build upon the regional climate model projections for Europe produced through the internationally coordinated downscaling effort EURO-CORDEX. The simulations from EURO-CORDEX consist of simulations at two spatial horizontal resolutions, several global climate models, and three different emission scenarios. Even with this unique dataset of regional climate scenarios, a number of practical challenges regarding a consistent interpretation of the model ensemble arise. Here we present the methodological chain employed in CH2018 in order to generate a multi-model ensemble that is consistent across scenarios and is used as a basis for deriving the CH2018 products. The different steps involve a thorough evaluation of the full EURO-CORDEX model ensemble, the removal of doubtful and potentially erroneous simulations, a time-shift approach to account for an equal number of simulations for each emission scenario, and the multi-model combination of simulations with different spatial resolutions. Each component of this cascade of processing steps is associated with an uncertainty that eventually contributes to the overall scientific uncertainty of the derived scenario products. We present a comparison and an assessment of the uncertainties from these individual effects and relate them to probabilistic projections. It is shown that the CH2018 scenarios are generally supported by the results from other sources. Thus, the CH2018 scenarios currently provide the best available dataset of future climate change estimates in Switzerland.

Possible Increase of Vegetation Exposure to Spring Frost under Climate Change in Switzerland

We assessed future changes in spring frost risk for the Aare river catchment that comprises the Swiss Plateau, the most important agricultural region of Switzerland. An ensemble of 15 bias-corrected regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EXAR data set forced by the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 concentration pathways were analysed for two future periods. Correlating actual meteorological observations and Swiss phenological spring index, we proposed and tested an RCM-compatible methodology (based on temperature data only) for estimating a start of spring and severity of frost events. In the historical climate, a significant advancement in start of spring was observed and frost events were more frequent in those years in which spring started sooner. In 2021–2050, spring is projected to start eight (twelve) days earlier, considering the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenario. Substantial changes were simulated for the 2070–2099 period under RCP 8.5, when the total severity of frost events was projected to be increased by a factor of 2.1 compared to the historical climate. The study revealed the possible future increase of vegetation exposure to spring frost in Switzerland and that this phenomenon is noticeable even in the near future under the ‘low concentration’ RCP 4.5 scenario.

FORests and HYdrology under Climate Change in Switzerland v1.0: a spatially distributed model combining hydrology and forest dynamics

Abstract. We present FORHYCS (FORests and HYdrology under Climate Change in Switzerland), a distributed ecohydrological model to assess the impact of climate change on water resources and forest dynamics. FORHYCS is based on the coupling of the hydrological model PREVAH and the forest landscape model TreeMig. In a coupled simulation, both original models are executed simultaneously and exchange information through shared variables. The simulated canopy structure is summarized by the leaf area index (LAI), which affects local water balance calculations. On the other hand, an annual drought index is obtained from daily simulated potential and actual transpiration. This drought index affects tree growth and mortality, as well as a species-specific tree height limitation. The effective rooting depth is simulated as a function of climate, soil, and simulated above-ground vegetation structure. Other interface variables include stomatal resistance and leaf phenology. Case study simulations with the model were performed in the Navizence catchment in the Swiss Central Alps, with a sharp elevational gradient and climatic conditions ranging from dry inner-alpine to high alpine. In a first experiment, the model was run for 500 years with different configurations. The results were compared against observations of vegetation properties from national forest inventories, remotely sensed LAI, and high-resolution canopy height maps from stereo aerial images. Two new metrics are proposed for a quantitative comparison of observed and simulated canopy structure. In a second experiment, the model was run for 130 years under climate change scenarios using both idealized temperature and precipitation change and meteorological forcing from downscaled GCM-RCM model chains. The first experiment showed that model configuration greatly influences simulated vegetation structure. In particular, simulations where height limitation was dependent on environmental stress showed a much better fit to canopy height observations. Spatial patterns of simulated LAI were more realistic than for uncoupled simulations of the forest landscape model, although some model deficiencies are still evident. Under idealized climate change scenarios, the effect of the coupling varied regionally, with the greatest effects on simulated streamflow (up to 60 mm yr−1 difference with respect to a simulation with static vegetation parameters) seen at the valley bottom and in regions currently above the treeline. This case study shows the importance of coupling hydrology and vegetation dynamics to simulate the impact of climate change on ecosystems. Nevertheless, it also highlights some challenges of ecohydrological modeling, such as the need to realistically simulate the plant response to increased CO2 concentrations and process uncertainty regarding future land cover changes.

Climate change in Switzerland: Impact on hazel, birch, and grass pollen on the basis of half a century of pollen records (1969 - 2018).

As indicated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), human activities are estimated to have caused ~ 1.0 °C of global warming above pre-industrial levels. The impact of this global warming is diverse and pertains also plant biology. The start of the pollen season as well as the observed quantities of pollen have been considered indicators of the impact of climate change. Switzerland has one of the longest pollen time series now – more than half a century. It has been tested whether the impact of climate change is robust by checking with this long time series of different pollen like hazel, birch, and grass as prominent representatives of triggers of hay fever. The results indicate that based on a time series of 50 years, the pollen seasons of hazel, birch, and grass started earlier as the temperature increased. Comparing the annual amount of pollen, a relevant increase is only observed for hazel. However, it must be considered that in the observed 50 years there was a land use change from grass land to built-up land due to the increase of population, and yet certain pollen counts increased considerably.

Musical Borrowing in Sonification

Sonification presents some challenges in communicating information, particularly because of the large difference between possible data to sound mappings and cognitively valid mappings. It is an information transmission process which can be described through the Shannon-Weaver Theory of Mathematical Communication. Musical borrowing is proposed as a method in sonification which can aid the information transmission process as the composer’s and listener’s shared musical knowledge is used. This article describes the compositional process of Wasgiischwashäsch (2017) which uses Rossini’s William Tell Overture (1829) to sonify datasets relating to climate change in Switzerland. It concludes that the familiarity of audiences with the original piece, and the humorous effect produced by the distortion of a well-known piece, contribute to a more effective transmission process.

A General Equilibrium Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Swiss Winter Tourism with Adaptation

Winter alpine tourism has been repeatedly identified as one of the economic sectors most at risk from climate change in Switzerland. However, all of the costs that have been estimated so far for the Swiss tourism sector are, to some extent, misleading as they do not, or only partially, incorporate adaptation possibilities and general equilibrium effects. We attempt to fill this gap using a computable general equilibrium model that is specifically designed for the purposes of this research. Our modeling efforts first consist in creating a tourism sector with a part of it being dependent on snow. We also carefully model the snowmaking technology. Using climate change scenarios on future snow cover, we analyze their impacts on the Swiss ski industry. We find welfare effects for the Swiss economy ranging from − 23 to 113 million CHF in 2050. This range arises from the use of various assumptions concerning adaptation possibilities. We also show that geographical substitutions between international ski destinations have large positive effects for Switzerland. From a more general perspective, our results exemplify the risks of estimating the consequences of climate change based only on domestic impacts of climate change with no adaptation being implemented.

Mapping governance of adaptation to climate change in Switzerland

ABSTRACTClimate change severely affects Alpine regions. Adaptation to climate change is needed in order to deal with these impacts, but the implementation of national adaptation strategies is inhibited by multiple obstacles. Regional strategic frameworks are just emerging, adaptation is of little priority to local agendas and policy mainstreaming is limited on all administrative levels. This paper provides a better understanding of the governance of adaptation to climate change in Switzerland, an example of a federal system with a strong focus on subnational levels and multilevel governance. We conceptualize governance as a network of policies, measures, actors and knowledge, and visualize their interactions using D3.js, a data-driven JavaScript library. The findings illustrate the typical division of labour in federal multilevel governance systems. The national level provides a strategic framework and funding and conducts coordinating measures at subnational levels, especially the local-level implementation of concrete measures. Conducting comparable mappings for other countries would allow interesting comparisons and insights into common barriers and opportunities to adaptation to climate change.

Impact of climate change in Switzerland on socioeconomic snow indices

Snow is a key element for many socioeconomic activities in mountainous regions. Due to the sensitivity of the snow cover to variations of temperature and precipitation, major changes caused by climate change are expected to happen. We analyze the evolution of some key snow indices under future climatic conditions. Ten downscaled and postprocessed climate scenarios from the ENSEMBLES database have been used to feed the physics-based snow model SNOWPACK. The projected snow cover has been calculated for 11 stations representing the diverse climates found in Switzerland. For the first time, such a setup is used to reveal changes in frequently applied snow indices and their implications on various socioeconomic sectors. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, a continuous snow cover is likely only guaranteed at high elevations above 2000 m a.s.l., whereas at mid elevations (1000–1700 m a.s.l.), roughly 50 % of all winters might be characterized by an ephemeral snow cover. Low elevations (below 500 m a.s.l.) are projected to experience only 2 days with snowfall per year and show the strongest relative reductions in mean winter snow depth of around 90 %. The range of the mean relative reductions of the snow indices is dominated by uncertainties from different GCM-RCM projections and amounts to approximately 30 %. Despite these uncertainties, all snow indices show a clear decrease in all scenario periods and the relative reductions increase toward lower elevations. These strong reductions can serve as a basis for policy makers in the fields of tourism, ecology, and hydropower.

The economic impact of climate-driven changes in water availability in Switzerland

The broad objective of this study is to estimate the economic impact of changes in water availability due to climate change in Switzerland with a 2050 time horizon. To do so, the sectoral structure of the computable general equilibrium model GEMINI-E3 is being extended. Raw water resources are introduced as a production factor into the model and a drinking water distribution sector is specified for Switzerland to allow for a precise analysis of the economic consequences of restricted water supply. Predictions of water availability in 2050 are taken from a hydrological model and alternative climate change scenarios are considered. Simulations show possible restrictions in water resource availability to increase raw water prices substantially compared to the baseline. However, the global economic impact for Switzerland is rather small due to the low price of raw water in Switzerland and its small value in the benchmark scenario. Finally, the simulation of scenarios featuring alternative levels of endogenous adaptive capacity of the economy highlights the importance of the ability to reduce water losses and to transform production processes to decrease their water intensity in determining the extent of welfare losses provoked by a decrease in water availability.

Simulations of 21st century snow response to climate change in Switzerland from a set of RCMs

ABSTRACTTwenty‐first century snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) changes are assessed for three time periods (2020–2049, 2045–2079 and 2070–2099) at 11 stations in Switzerland with the physics‐based snow model SNOWPACK and meteorological input data perturbed by the output from ten regional climate models (RCMs) through the delta change method. Unlike in previous studies, incoming long‐wave radiation has also been modified for future climatic conditions. We thus show the range of future snow simulations assuming different RCM projections.Model validation yields satisfying results for simulating snow depth and SWE for the reference period with errors in the order of 9% and 15%, respectively. For the end of the century, the stations between 1000–1700 m a.s.l. show no pronounced elevation dependence but surprisingly react quite similarly in terms of the relative magnitude of snow cover decrease, which may reach 90%. The projected small increase in winter precipitation has almost no effect at these stations, but incoming long‐wave radiation has an important effect. At the high‐elevation station Weissfluhjoch (2540 m a.s.l.) however, the precipitation increase is partly able to compensate for the increased temperature. This would imply that the snow cover at mid‐elevation stations becomes temperature and radiation dominated and will react similarly to the spatially small differences in the projected temperature change. The low‐elevation stations already show a strong decrease in the near future, and the inclusion of modified incoming long‐wave radiation has almost no effect on the decrease of future snow depth and SWE because the temperatures are already close to the melting point in the reference period. At the end of the century, mean snow depth/SWE are reduced by 35/32%, 83/86% and 96/97% at high‐, mid‐ and low‐elevations, respectively.

Climate change in Switzerland: a review of physical, institutional, and political aspects

Climate change is clearly discernible in observed climate records in Switzerland. It impacts on natural systems, ecosystems, and economic sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and energy, and it affects Swiss livelihood in various ways. The observed and projected changes call for a response from the political system, which in Switzerland is characterized by federalism and direct democratic instruments. Swiss climate science embraces natural and social sciences and builds on institutionalized links between researchers, public, and private stakeholders. In this article, we review the physical, institutional, and political aspects of climate change in Switzerland. We show how the current state of Swiss climate science and policy developed over the past 20 years in the context of international developments and national responses. Specific to Switzerland is its topographic setting with mountain regions and lowlands on both sides of the Alpine ridge, which makes climate change clearly apparent and for some aspects (tourist sector, hydropower, and extreme events) highly relevant and better perceivable (e.g., retreating glaciers). Not surprisingly the Alpine region is of central interest in Swiss climate change studies.This article is categorized under: Trans‐Disciplinary Perspectives > National Reviews

Habitat at the mountain tops: how long can Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica) survive rapid climate change in the Swiss Alps? A multi-scale approach

Ongoing monitoring in the Swiss Alps has shown that Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica) has suffered a significant population decrease over the last decade and climate change has been proposed as a potential cause. In this study, we investigate the response of this high alpine grouse species to rapid climate change. We address a problem often neglected in macro-ecological studies on species distribution: scale-dependency of distribution models. The models are based on empirical field data and on environmental databases for large-scale models. The implementation of several statistical modelling approaches, external validation strategies and the implementation of a recent study on regional climate change in Switzerland ensure robust predictions of future range shifts. Our results demonstrate that, on the territory level, variables depicting vegetation, heterogeneity of local topography and habitat structure have greatest explanatory power. In contrast at the meso-scale and macro-scale (with grain sizes of 1 and 100 km2, respectively), bioclimatic and land cover-related variables play a prominent role. The models predict that, based on increasing temperatures during the breeding season, potential habitat will decrease by up to two-thirds until the year 2070. At the same time, a shift of potential habitat towards the mountain tops is predicted. The multi-scale approach highlights the true extent of potential habitat for this species with its patchy distribution in steep terrain. The small-scale analysis pinpoints the key habitat areas within the extensive areas of suitable habitat predicted by models on large grain sizes and in this way reveals sub-grid variability. Our results can facilitate the adaptation of species conservation strategies to a quickly changing environment.

Les barrières à la mise en œuvre des politiques d’adaptation au changement climatique: le cas de la Suisse

Abstract: The implementation of climate change adaptation polices has barely occurred in developed countries. This paper examines to what extent the perceptions of political actors might hinder the development of adaptation policies. We study the Swiss case using computer aided textual analysis. Our results demonstrate that adaptation is still not perceived as an important dimension of climate change policy. Decision makers do not perceive links between adaptation, the Swiss economy and the energy supply. Adaptation is mainly considered an issue for developing countries and not as a way to reduce the impacts of climate change in Switzerland. Right‐wing parties tend to consider adaptation a secondary issue and are more likely than those to the left to object to the formulation or the implementation of public measures.