Abstract
The latest Swiss Climate Scenarios (CH2018), released in November 2018, consist of several datasets derived through various methods that provide robust and relevant information on climate change in Switzerland. The scenarios build upon the regional climate model projections for Europe produced through the internationally coordinated downscaling effort EURO-CORDEX. The simulations from EURO-CORDEX consist of simulations at two spatial horizontal resolutions, several global climate models, and three different emission scenarios. Even with this unique dataset of regional climate scenarios, a number of practical challenges regarding a consistent interpretation of the model ensemble arise. Here we present the methodological chain employed in CH2018 in order to generate a multi-model ensemble that is consistent across scenarios and is used as a basis for deriving the CH2018 products. The different steps involve a thorough evaluation of the full EURO-CORDEX model ensemble, the removal of doubtful and potentially erroneous simulations, a time-shift approach to account for an equal number of simulations for each emission scenario, and the multi-model combination of simulations with different spatial resolutions. Each component of this cascade of processing steps is associated with an uncertainty that eventually contributes to the overall scientific uncertainty of the derived scenario products. We present a comparison and an assessment of the uncertainties from these individual effects and relate them to probabilistic projections. It is shown that the CH2018 scenarios are generally supported by the results from other sources. Thus, the CH2018 scenarios currently provide the best available dataset of future climate change estimates in Switzerland.
Highlights
Human influence is extremely likely to be the dominant cause of global warming since about 1950 (IPCC, 2013), and warming will continue with further emissions of greenhouse gases
The median changes in temperature and precipitation from the multi-model combination used in the CH2018 scenarios are presented whereas a full overview of all results is given in the technical report (CH2018, 2018)
Results from regional climate models (RCMs) are today applied by many countries to provide regional climate projections to be used for local impact assessment
Summary
Human influence is extremely likely to be the dominant cause of global warming since about 1950 (IPCC, 2013), and warming will continue with further emissions of greenhouse gases. Whether or not the goals in the Paris Agreement are met (Rogelj et al, 2016), societies will have to adapt to future climate change and its impacts. Changes are seen in various further quantities, such as more frequent and intense heat-waves and heavy precipitation events, a longer vege tation period, a reduction of snow-fall days and a decrease of Alpine glacier volume by about 60% (CH2018, 2018). These changes in the climate system have a pronounced impacts on the whole society, such as effects on agricultural productivity, tourism, people’s health, and energy and hydropower production. Regional climate change assessments are crucial to provide future climate projections on the local-to-regional scale that serve the needs of users so that the necessary planning for adaptation measures can take place (Allis et al, 2019)
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