Agricultural Climate Change Research Articles

Economic impact analysis of current climate change variability and future impacts in agricultural sector of Nepal

Nepal’s economy is largely based on agriculture, predominantly small-scale farming, and about half of which is dependent on natural rainfall. In Nepal, agriculture is a highly climate sensitive sector. Historically, the sector has been affected by floods, droughts and erratic rainfall. This study focused on the impacts and economic costs of climate change in agriculture and assessed perceptions of communities of Kaski and Mustang districts on frequency and intensity of hailstorm events over time including their related impacts. Scenario-based impact assessment was used for assessment of long-term impacts and economic costs of climate change. The study used Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) model to analyze the effects of climate on three major crops, namely rice, maize and wheat. The economic loss due to the impacts of climate change in cereals (rice, maize and wheat) was estimated at around US$ 336.42 million in the year 2006. Among the respondents, 60% reported food shortages which made them highly vulnerable due to climate variability. Similarly, 80% of the respondents mentioned that 20 major hailstorm events have occurred in the vicinity of their communities over the last 35 years (up to 2012) and have caused significant damage to crop production, livestock and infrastructure. DesInventar database reported damage of 75% to 100% of the key crops. Crop yield projections indicate a complex mix of increases and decreases in yield which vary over time (in projections in 2030 AD and 2070 AD) and by location (east to west/Terai to Mountains). In the 2030s, there is a net increase in production and values; however, by the 2070s, the impact in agricultural production is expected to reach to US$ 140 million/year (2014). In terms of research, there are priorities around further work to understand climate uncertainty, the indirect economic costs of these impacts, and early research priorities to address long-term challenges. There is an urgent need to build capacity, with information and awareness raising, monitoring, research, and institutional strengthening.

Factors affecting smallholder farmers’ adaptation to climate change through non-technological adjustments

Smallholder farmers often employ inputs and practices they are traditionally well acquainted with to adapt to climate change. These types of adjustments, henceforth referred to as non-technological, are not only more feasible in the resource-constrained situation of smallholder farmers but also have a potential to significantly reduce the negative impact of climate change. However, a systematic study of these types of adaptations isolating them from technological ones is still lacking. While technological adaptations can benefit from the extensive literature on the adoption of agricultural technologies, non-technological adaptations still need further examination as one distinct group of adjustments. We hypothesize that this group of adaptations strongly depend on farmers’ accumulated experience rather than financial resources and level of schooling. To test this hypothesis, we compared the determinants of changing planting date and changing crop type as non-technological adaptations, with the determinants of two technological adaptations: fertilizer use and rainwater harvesting. The investigation relied on a survey of 270 farm households in Semien Shewa Zone of Ethiopia. We used Wilcoxon Signed rank test and verified the importance of climate change in inducing the adjustments. A Multivariate probit model was then used to identify their determinants. Our hypothesis is supported by a positive relationship between farm experience and changing planting date, while fertilizer and rainwater harvesting showed a positive correlation with access to credit and level of schooling respectively. Our findings suggest that targeting non-technological farm-level adaptations through interventions focused on experience sharing can alone play an important role in reducing the impact of climate change in agriculture.

Agricultural climate change mitigation: carbon calculators as a guide for decision making

ABSTRACTThe dairy industry is receiving considerable attention in relation to both its significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and its potential for reducing those emissions, contributing towards meeting national targets and driving the industry towards sustainable intensification. However, the extent to which improvements can be made is dependent on the decision-making processes of individual producers, so there has been a proliferation of carbon accounting tools seeking to influence those processes. This paper evaluates the suitability of such tools for driving environmental change by influencing on-farm management decisions. Seven tools suitable for the European dairy industry were identified, their characteristics evaluated, and used to process data relating to six scenario farms, emulating processes undertaken in real farm management situations. As a result of the range of approaches taken by the tools, there was limited agreement between them as to GHG emissions magnitude, and no consistent pattern as to which tools resulted in the highest/lowest results. Despite this it is argued, that as there was agreement as to the farm activities responsible for the greatest emissions, the more complex tools were still capable of performing a ‘decision support’ role, and guiding management decisions, whilst others could merely focus attention on key issues.

Research on Climate Change Policies and Rural Development in Latin America: Scope and Gaps

Research on climate change policies can contribute to policy development by building an understanding of the barriers faced in policy processes, and by providing knowledge needed throughout policy cycles. This paper explores the thematic coverage of research on climate change policies related to rural areas, rural development, and natural resource management in Latin America. A three-tier framework is proposed to analyse the selected literature. The results show that research studies have focussed on the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from forests, and adaptations to climate change in agriculture. There is little policy research on other vulnerable sectors (e.g., water and health) and emitting sectors (e.g., energy and industry) in the context of rural development. Our analysis highlights the various research gaps that deserve increased scientific attention, including: cross-sector approaches, multi-level governance, and the stages of policy adoption, implementation and evaluation. In addition, the selected literature has a limited contribution to theoretical discussions in policy sciences.

Applying the robust adaptation planning (RAP) framework to Ghana\u2019s agricultural climate change adaptation regime

This paper introduces a five-step framework, namely the Robust Adaptation Planning (RAP) framework, to plan and respond to the ‘grand challenge’ of climate change. RAP combines, under a unified framework, elements from robust action, participatory planning and network theory to capture the different motives, perception, and roles of actors that are important for climate change adaptation. RAP leverages existing structures and networks and involves diverse actors to plan, sequence and time strategies across multiple levels (i.e. from local to national). Actors identify adaptation interventions and important actor relations to develop wide networks, highlighting potential pathways for connecting action from central policy to local implementation (and vice versa). Comparing these proposed participatory structures with existing structures reveals actors deemed important for delivering adaptation, as well as gaps and overlaps in their relations. The end result is a robust plan covering many perspectives and local realities for both relieving immediate and adapting to longer-term consequences of climate change. We applied the RAP framework in Ghana’s agricultural climate change adaptation regime to demonstrate its usefulness as a means of planning adaptation interventions in a climate-vulnerable, multi-actor and multi-level setting. The application of the RAP framework in this paper highlights how it can: (1) visualise the adaptation space (and its different components), and reduce the complexity of implementing adaptation responses; (2) offer a shared space to actors from all administrative levels to think and create collective narratives for adaptation without demanding explicit consensus and; (3) identify key actors and actions through a collaborative planning process, and allocate responsibility for the smooth delivery of adaptation interventions.

Perceptions of climate change and adaptation in Hungarian agriculture: results of an interview study

In this paper, the results of an interview survey of farmers in Győr-Moson-Sopron, Fejer, Hajdu-Bihar, Jasz-Nagykun-Szolnok, Pest and Zala (NUTS 3) counties of Hungary are used to demonstrate the major factors of climate change perception, such as the terms psychological climate, temporality and problem localisation. Adaptation strategies are also discussed. The interview results underline the subjectivity of temporality as well as the fact that the phenomenon of localisation and the narratives for place attachment differ when climate change is interpreted within the locality. Considering adaptation, it seems that Hungarian agriculture includes individuals who can be regarded as leaders or as people escaping ahead in terms of climatic adaptation, but the majority seems to be unable to follow them because they lack the necessary knowledge, technology or financial resources.

Perceptions of climate change and adaptation in Hungarian agriculture: results of an interview study

In this paper, the results of an interview survey of farmers in Győr-Moson-Sopron, Fejer, Hajdu-Bihar, Jasz-Nagykun-Szolnok, Pest and Zala (NUTS 3) counties of Hungary are used to demonstrate the major factors of climate change perception, such as the terms psychological climate, temporality and problem localisation. Adaptation strategies are also discussed. The interview results underline the subjectivity of temporality as well as the fact that the phenomenon of localisation and the narratives for place attachment differ when climate change is interpreted within the locality. Considering adaptation, it seems that Hungarian agriculture includes individuals who can be regarded as leaders or as people escaping ahead in terms of climatic adaptation, but the majority seems to be unable to follow them because they lack the necessary knowledge, technology or financial resources.

Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach

Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals. In this paper we present statistical findings along with a preliminary version of an original agent-based model called the Dawe Global Security Model that simulates the global food market and the political fragility of countries. The model simulates the effects of food insecurity on international food prices and how these, coupled with national political fragility and international food trade can, in turn, increase the probability of food riots in countries. The agents in the model are the 213 countries of the world whose characteristics reflect empirical data and the international trade of food is also simulated based on real trade partnerships and data. The model has been informed, calibrated and validated using real data and the results of these procedures are presented in the paper. To further test the model we also present the model’s forecasts for the near future in terms of food prices and incidence of food riots. The Dawe Global Security Model can be used to test scenarios on the evolution of shocks to global food production and analyse consequences for food riots. Further developments of the model can include national responses to food crises to investigate how countries can influence the spread of global food crises.

Climate change impacts on EU agriculture: A regionalized perspective taking into account market-driven adjustments

The biophysical and economic consequences of climate change for agriculture are surrounded by uncertainties. The evaluation of climate change impacts on global and regional agriculture has been studied at length. In most cases, however, global and regional impacts are examined separately. Here we present a regionalized assessment – for the 2030 time horizon – covering the whole European Union while accounting for market feedback through international markets. To account for uncertainty on climate effects, we defined several simulation scenarios that differ as to climate projections and assumptions on the degree of carbon fertilization. Biophysical simulations show that crop productivity effects are largely determined by the degree of carbon fertilization, leading to decreased productivity in the absence of carbon fertilization and increased productivity otherwise. The magnitude of those effects differs across regions and crops, with maize being one of the most negatively affected in the EU. Economic simulations show that, while, on the whole, crop price effects attenuate the global impacts of climate change, aggregate results conceal significant regional disparities and their related trade adjustment. These results suggest that a multi-scale perspective is helpful for assessing climate change impacts on agriculture, as it will improve understanding of how regional and global agrifood markets respond to climate change and how these responses interact with each other.

Adaptation to climate change in agriculture in Bangladesh: The role of formal institutions

Bangladesh is very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and adaptation is emerging as a key policy response. Place based programs that build adaptive capacity are needed. This paper explores the effectiveness of formal institutions in climate change adaptation for agriculture from the perspectives of farmers and institutional communities of practice within two drought-prone areas in Bangladesh. Our findings show that formal institutions via their communities of practice play an important role in building place based capacity for mitigation and adaptation strategies in agriculture. Over-emphasis on technology, lack of acknowledgement of cultural factors and a failure of institutional communities of practice to mediate and create linkages with informal institutional communities of practice remain barriers. We argue that in order for formal institutions to play an ongoing and crucial role in building adaptive agriculture in Bangladesh, they must incorporate cultural mechanisms and build partnerships with more community based informal institutions.

Meeting the Sustainable Millennium Development Goals Through Adaptation in Cameroon with the Focus on Climate Change in Agriculture

In a recent report, Norrington-Davie (2015) declared that climate change is not a priority for the Government of Cameroon and is unlikely to become so in the near future as Cameroon focuses on improving job creation and reducing widespread poverty. According to the author, awareness of climate change, both inside and outside of government, is largely limited to an understanding of environmental and climate related impacts at the local levels. Higher level political commitment for climate change is limited and there is currently no capacity within line ministries to mainstream climate change across sector programmes. A National Observatory for Climate Change (ONACC) is expected to address some of these issues but its creation has been pending since the issuance of a Presidential Decree in December 2009 (Norrington-Davies, 2015). This paper aims at assisting the Cameroonian government in meeting the sustainable millennium development goals through adaptation with the focus on Climate change in agriculture. The first part of the paper highlights the issue of climate change developments in Cameroon. The second part sheds light on the literature review by revisiting some concepts around climate change mitigation in the Cameroonian agriculture sector. The third part develops the roadmap in dealing with climate change challenges in Cameroon. The last gives recommendations regarding adaptation on climate change in Cameroon.

DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) Improvement through Model Coupling and Sub-model Development Considering Agricultural Land Use and Future Climate Change

Climate change is the biggest concern of the 21st century. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from various sectors are attracting attention as a cause of climate change. The DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model simulates GHG emissions from cropland. To study future GHG emissions using this simulation model, various factors that could change in future need to be considered. Because most problems are from the agricultural sector, DNDC would be unable to solve the factor-changing problem itself. Hence, it is necessary to link DNDC with separate models that simulate each element. Climate change is predicted to cause a variety of environmental disasters in the future, having a significant impact on the agricultural environment. In the process of human adaptation to environmental change, the distribution and management methods of farmland will also change greatly. In this study, we introduce some drawbacks of DNDC in considering future changes, and present other existing models that can rectify the same. We further propose some combinations with models and development sub-models.

Climate Change, Carbon Offsets and Low Carbon Technologies in Agriculture: A Review

Climate Change, Carbon Offsets and Low Carbon Technologies in Agriculture: A Review

Changing arenas for agricultural climate change adaptation in Vietnam

ABSTRACTGreat changes are underway in how climate and agricultural risks are managed in Vietnam. Uncertainties are emerging regarding the role of the state in managing these risks and what this implies for assumptions regarding hoped-for climate change transformations. Local government control is waning in relation to the expanding roles of the private sector and the growing autonomy of farmers themselves. This article presents cases that illustrate the ways that farmers, private investors, and local authorities are responding to climate risk within roles relating to the other risks involving markets, food security, and pressures on common property resources.

Developing indicators for adaptation decision-making under climate change in agriculture: A proposed evaluation model

This study proposes a new approach to developing a set of indicators for evaluating, prioritizing and choosing adaptation practices to climate change in agriculture. A simulation process is further conducted by applying the proposed indicators and the AHP model to prioritize adaptation alternatives to drought conditions. Data are collected through semi-structured questionnaires, focus group discussions, face- to-face interviews and literature review. Based on the focus group discussions, a six-step process is derived for use in developing indicators. A total of seventeen indictors are developed and classified into two broad components; feasibility and effectiveness (eight and nine indicators, respectively). The simulation results show that irrigation and drought- tolerant varieties are most feasible and effective alternative adaptation practices to drought in the Lawra district of Ghana. The proposed indicators are expected to provide a useful tool for supporting the decision-making process of stakeholders in the agriculture sector under climate change conditions.

Trends in scientific research on climate change in agriculture and forestry subject areas (2005–2014)

The term “Climate change” involves an alteration of the mean and variability of the climate properties. It implies unusual variations in the planet earth atmosphere, which causes related effect on other parts of the planet. The reduction in the land crops annual yield is derived from those alterations. The objective of this paper was to contribute to a better understanding of the scientific knowledge of climate change and its effect concerning agriculture and investigate its evolution through published papers. The items under study were obtained from the Web of Science (WOS) platform from Thomson Reuters. A bibliometric and social network analysis was performed to determine the indicators of scientific productivity, impact and collaboration between authors, institutions and countries. A subject analysis taking into account the key words assigned to papers and subject areas of journals was also carried out. A total of 1471 articles were included in the selected subject categories in WOS from 2005 until 2014. More than 50% of the papers were published in the last three years. The papers were published in 302 different journals. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is the most productive institution (n = 70), followed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (n = 58) and the Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA, France) (n = 47). The Canadian Forest Service has the most citations (n = 1456). The most frequent keywords were CO2, adaptation, model, temperature and impact. The network of collaboration between institutions and countries involve both centres from developed and developing countries and the central position of the United States, together with other leading countries, such as China, Canada, Australia, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Twenty papers received more than 100 citations, most of them concerned with emerging risks that climate change causes on forests, the impact on the forest ecosystems, the effect on plant diseases and adaptation options.

Concomitance of agriculture in changing climate

Concomitance of agriculture in changing climate

Interactions between European agricultural policy and climate change: a Slovenian case study

This article analyses the interactions between agricultural policy measures in the EU and the factors affecting GHG emissions from agriculture on the one hand, and the adaptation of agriculture to climate change on the other. To this end, the article uses Slovenia as a case study, assessing the extent to which Slovenian agricultural policy is responding to the challenges of climate change. All agricultural policy measures related to the 2007–2013 programming period were analysed according to a new methodological approach that is based on a qualitative (expert evaluation) and a quantitative (budgetary transfers validation) assessment. A panel of experts reached consensus on the key factors through which individual measures affect climate change, in which direction and how significantly. Data on budgetary funds for each measure were used as weights to assess their relative importance. The results show that there are not many measures in (Slovenian) agricultural policy that are directly aimed at reducing GHG emissions from agriculture or at adaptation to climate change. Nevertheless, most affect climate change, and their impact is far from negligible. Current measures have both positive and negative impacts, but overall the positive impacts prevail. Measures that involve many beneficiaries and more budgetary funds had the strongest impact on aggregate assessments. In light of climate change, agricultural policy should pay more attention to measures that are aimed at raising the efficiency of animal production, as it is the principal source of GHG emissions from agriculture.Policy relevanceAgricultural policy must respond to climate challenges and climate change impact assessment must be included in the process of forming European agricultural policy. Agricultural policy measures that contribute to the reduction of emissions and adaptation, whilst acting in synergy with other environmental, economic and social goals, should be promoted. The approach used in this study combines qualitative and quantitative data, yielding an objective assessment of the climate impact of agricultural policy measures and providing policy makers with a tool for either ex ante or ex post evaluations of climate-relevant policy measures.

Knowledge and passive adaptation to climate change: An example from Indian farmers

This study is an attempt to use group information collected on climate change from farmers in eastern Uttar Pradesh, India to address a key question related to climate change policy: How to encourage farmers to adapt to climate change? First, we investigate farmers’ perception of and adaptation to climate change using content analysis and group information. The findings are then compared with climatic and agriculture information collected through secondary sources. Results suggest that though farmers are aware of long-term changes in climatic factors (temperature and rainfall, for example), they are unable to identify these changes as climate change. Farmers are also aware of risks generated by climate variability and extreme climatic events. However, farmers are not taking concrete steps in dealing with perceived climatic changes, although we find out that farmers are changing their agricultural and farming practices. These included changing sowing and harvesting timing, cultivation of crops of short duration varieties, inter-cropping, changing cropping pattern, investment in irrigation, and agroforestry. Note that these changes may be considered as passive response or adaptation strategies to climate change. Perhaps farmers are implicitly taking initiatives to adapt climate change. Finally, the paper suggests some policy interventions to scale up adaptation to climate change in Indian agriculture.

Measuring the Influence of Weather Variables on Productivity of Food-Grain Crops in India:An Application of Just & Pope's Production Technique

The present study investigates the impact of weather factors on mean yield and variability of food-grain crops during sowing, growing and harvesting time. Design/Methodology/Approach: It used linear and log-linear regression models under stochastic production function technique. Mean yield and yield variability of wheat, chickpea, rice and maize crops are compiled as state-wise panel during 1971- 2012. Major Findings: It shows that mean yield and yield variability of food-grain crops are climate sensitive, and climate change have a negative impact on yield of aforesaid crops. It ascertained that fluctuation in weather factors would increase food insecurity in India. Research Limitations/Implications: Agriculture is a significant cause for climate change and environmental degradation, however the study avoid this fact. It assumes that all varieties of a crop similarly get affects due to climate change. Practical Implications: It emphasized that Indian farmers need to adopt crop specific policies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. It provides conclusive policy recommendations to moderate the negative effects of climate change in agriculture. Originality/Value: It estimate the influence of climatic factors on mean yield and yield variability of major food-grain crops at macro level. It also assesses the seasonal influence of weather factors on food-grain productivity.