Era Of Climate Change Research Articles

Assessing the impact of socio-demographic factors on municipal water security in planned and unplanned urban centers of Pakistan

ABSTRACT In the current era of climate change, along with population and urbanization growth, Pakistan is facing increasing environmental challenges. These challenges intensified the pressure on the existing municipal water supply (MWS), which necessitated a need for a comprehensive assessment of the municipal water dynamics in these three cities. This research aimed sixfold: assessing the current municipal water services, municipal water demand, groundwater table depletion, satisfaction, awareness level, and the monetary indicators of the MWS. A three-stage key performance indicator (KPI) -based questionnaire survey was conducted, both online and through a field survey, self-administered between March 2022 and December 2023 in Islamabad (planned), Rawalpindi, and Mardan (unplanned). Public water supply (PWS) coverage remained 63% in Islamabad and 52% in Rawalpindi, while Mardan heavily relied on (44%) bore wells. Similarly, water scarcity remained alarmingly high in Islamabad (82%) and Rawalpindi (72%), compared to (relatively) low in Mardan (16%) between June and August every year. Over the past three decades, groundwater depths (GWD) in Rawalpindi have increased up to 300 ft, in Islamabad by 200 ft, and in Mardan by 50 ft. The study calls for intensified roles of all stakeholders, including the community, municipalities, policymakers, and urban planners, to ensure sustained municipal water supply.

Identification of Agroforestry Systems and Socio-Economic Status of Farmers in Rural Areas of Jogindernagar in Mandi District of Himachal Pradesh, India

The present study was carried out in rural areas of Jogindernagar in Mandi District of Himachal Pradesh with the aim of identifying the agroforestry systems and assessing the demographic features and socio-economic status of farmers. The methodology followed for the present study in order to site selection, sampling procedure, identification of agroforestry systems, data collection, an analytical framework and valuation. The study site was selected by multistage random sampling technique. The study revealed that there are six agroforestry systems viz., agrisilviculture, agri-silvi-horticulture, agri-horticulture, agri-silvipastoral, pastoral-silviculture and pastoral-horticulture which prevails among different categories of farmers. In the medium and small categories of farmers, all the six agroforestry systems were present, while in the marginal category of farmers, the agri-silvipastoral system was absent. The average family size of the sampled households was 5.59 individuals per family. The highest sex ratio was observed in marginal farmers (990) and the lowest in medium farmer category (834). The literacy rate was recorded at its highest (91.70) in the marginal category of farmers. Most of the women were employed in the agroforestry and their livelihood depends on the farm’s income. The highest percentage of local breeds of cows was found in the all three categories of farmers. Overall, average land holding was recorded at 3.07 hectares in all sampled categories of farmers. The average land holding area was found to be maximum (1.58 ha) in medium, followed by small (1.01 ha) and marginal (0.48 ha) categories. Thus, small scale agroforestry viz., Agri-silvi-horticulture system in the subtropical region of Himachal Pradesh is recommended for social, economical and environmental benefits to the rural population for their livelihood and food security in the climate change era.

Electric vehicle and supply equipment adoption dynamics in the United States

In the present era of climate change concerns, plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) and their associated infrastructure are strategic investments by many governments. Investment discussions often include the dynamic supply-demand relationship between PEV adoption and charging station deployment, but rarely is it given an empirical treatment. We make use of publicly available charging station installation and PEV vehicle registration data by U.S. County between the years 2012 and 2021 to examine the phasing and causal relationship between adoption trends in these two markets. Non-linear Granger causality tests suggest a feedback relationship between PEV vehicle adoption and charging station installations. It can be further explained that when individuals adopt PEV, the demand for the charging infrastructure increases to meet the demand for PEV. Conversely, when more charging station installations become available, it encourages adoption of this technology making it convenient for individuals to have access to these charging facilities. It is observed in aggregate that PEVs are penetrating across the U.S., but the penetration rate differs across states and counties. We examine this interaction using a generalized propensity score (GPS) identification strategy for the effect of charging station installations on PEV registrations, coupled with a generalized additive model (GAM) to construct a causal dose-response curve. We observe statistically significant effects on per capita charging station rates for income and total population. We suggest a policy package that includes charging infrastructure investments but also provides wider adoption of subsidies for low-income households across all states.

Our cities, our farm lands: The socioeconomic determinants of urban households participation in urban agricultural production under climatic stressors

In Africa, urban agriculture is critical in addressing food security issues, economic and environmental sustainability in rapidly urbanizing regions such as urban Ghana. However, the factors that influence urban residents' participation in urban agricultural production under climate change adaptation has little space in the extant literature. Recognizing the increasing challenges posed by climate change, this study aims to understand the socio-economic factors influencing urban households' participation in agricultural activities and its implications for climate change adaptation and to draw urban households' socio-economic characteristics and their association with participating in urban agricultural production in the era of climate change effects in urban areas of Ghana. A quantitative approach is employed, involving a sample size of 362 urban households' across diverse neighbourhoods. Statistical analyses, including descriptive statistics—frequencies and percentages, inferential statistics—chi-square test and binary regression models, are employed to quantify the relationships between demographic factors and participation levels. The data suggests correlations between demographic variables, such as household size and income are significant at an alpha 0.05 in determining an urban household's participation in urban agricultural production under climatic stressors. Meanwhile, more urban households' in middle and high-class areas participate in urban agriculture than the lower class. Land acquisition is basically through purchasing which is a challenge in urban agriculture production. The study concluded that urban household size and monthly income are influential factors in urban households' participation in urban agricultural production even though land acquisition plays a factor. The study suggests that policymakers and stakeholders should harness the potential of urban agriculture for sustainable development in the era of climate change. This should be done through rolling out pro-poor urban development policies like pro-poor rights and legislation in urban areas; poor access to financial markets; and land tenure reforms that include flexible land holding and access by the poor.

Characterization of early maturing elite genotypes based on MTSI and MGIDI indexes: an illustration in upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.)

BackgroundGlobally, the cultivation of cotton is constrained by its tendency for extended periods of growth. Early maturity plays a potential role in rainfed-based multiple cropping system especially in the current era of climate change. In the current study, a set of 20 diverse Gossypium hirsutum genotypes were evaluated in two crop seasons with three planting densities and assessed for 11 morphological traits related to early maturity. The study aimed to identify genotype(s) that mature rapidly and accomplish well under diverse environmental conditions based on the two robust multivariate techniques called multi-trait stability index (MTSI) and multi-trait genotype-ideotype distance index (MGIDI).ResultsMTSI analysis revealed that out of the 20 genotypes, three genotypes, viz., NNDC-30, A-2, and S-32 accomplished well in terms of early maturity traits in two seasons. Furthermore, three genotypes were selected using MGIDI method for each planting densities with a selection intensity of 15%. The strengths and weaknesses of the genotypes selected based on MGIDI method highlighted that the breeders could focus on developing early-maturing genotypes with specific traits such as days to first flower and boll opening. The selected genotypes exhibited positive genetic gains for traits related to earliness and a successful harvest during the first and second pickings. However, there were negative gains for traits related to flowering and boll opening.ConclusionThe study identified three genotypes exhibiting early maturity and accomplished well under different planting densities. The multivariate methods (MTSI and MGIDI) serve as novel approaches for selecting desired genotypes in plant breeding programs, especially across various growing environments. These methods offer exclusive benefits and can easily construe and minimize multicollinearity issues.

Quo vadis, breeding for an efficient root system, in the era of climate change?

Quo vadis, breeding for an efficient root system, in the era of climate change?

Water Governance in an Era of Climate Change: A Model to Assess the Shifting Irrigation Demand and Its Effect on Water Management in the Western United States

Water Governance in an Era of Climate Change: A Model to Assess the Shifting Irrigation Demand and Its Effect on Water Management in the Western United States

P-723 Egg-conomized frozen embryo transfer

Abstract Study question Is home-based monitoring of ovulation cost effective compared with hospital-controlled ovulation in women undergoing frozen embryo transfer in the natural cycle? Summary answer Home-based monitoring to time frozen-embryo-transfer is cost-effective compared to hospital-controlled ovulation, as it results in lower cost with no difference in ongoing pregnancy rates. What is known already Women undergoing frozen embryo transfer treated by home-based monitoring of ovulation or hospital-controlled ovulation have comparable ongoing pregnancy rates. We found no differences in secondary outcomes, including the risk of undetected ovulation. Complete home-based monitoring of ovulation with LH hormone kits is feasible and requires no hospital visits at lower costs since ultrasound monitoring and hCG injection are no longer needed. Both consequences imply potentially lower costs after home-based monitoring of ovulation. Study design, size, duration We performed an economic evaluation of home-based monitoring of ovulation compared with hospital-controlled ovulation in a national multicentre randomised controlled trial in women undergoing frozen embryo transfer (ANTARCTICA-2 RCT Dutch TrialRegister Trial NL6414). 1464 women were randomly assigned between April 10, 2018, and April 13, 2022, with 732 allocated to home-based monitoring and 732 to hospital-controlled monitoring. All randomized patients were included according to the intention-to-treat principle. Participants/materials, setting, methods We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis from a hospital and societal perspective. We compared the direct medical costs of home-based monitoring of ovulation and hospital-controlled ovulation during one cycle until an ongoing pregnancy occurred. Direct medical costs included digital ovulation tests, transvaginal ultrasound monitoring of the dominant follicle followed by hCG trigger, hormone measurements in blood, treatment for miscarriage or ectopic pregnancy. Nonparametric bootstrapping was used to calculate cost estimates and differences with 95% confidence intervals. Main results and the role of chance Ongoing pregnancy rates were 20·8% in the home-based monitoring group and 20·9% in the hospital-controlled group (risk ratio [RR] 0·99 [90% CI 0·81 to 1·22]; risk difference [RD] -0·14 [90% CI -3·63 to 3·36]). No differences in ectopic pregnancies or miscarriages were found. Home-based monitoring required less travelling to the hospital, less ultrasounds by doctors or nurses, less hormone measurements in blood, and less medication (hCG injections). Mean direct medical costs per woman in the home-based monitoring of ovulation group and in the hospital-controlled ovulation group were €752 versus €991, respectively, with a mean difference of €239. The ICER consistently showed home-based monitoring to be less costly with no difference in effectiveness. Consequently, the cost difference from a societal perspective was larger. The mean costs per woman in the home-based monitoring of ovulation group and in the hospital-controlled ovulation group were €787 versus €1395, respectively, with a mean difference of €607 in favour of home-based monitoring. Limitations, reasons for caution We report on one cycle per women. Women usually undergomultiple frozen-embryo-cycles. This is of importance for clinical decision making aboutimplementation of home-based monitoring, since the cumulative benefit of multiple cycles perwoman should be taken into account. Wider implications of the findings The results of our trial show that home-based monitoring time frozen embryo transfer is equally effective but less costly compared with hospital-controlled ovulation. In this era of climate change and shortages of hospital staff and waiting lists, any process that takes less human labour is important. Trial registration number Dutch Trial Register (Trial NL6414)

Peak water in an era of climate change

ABSTRACT Humanity faces a wide range of freshwater challenges and threats, from the failure to provide safe water and sanitation to all, to ecological disruptions and degradation, increasing violence over water resources, accelerating climate change, and failing institutions and infrastructure. In recent years, crises around minerals, energy, food, and water have stimulated new debates over definitions and concepts of sustainability—including whether the world is reaching a point where natural resource limits will constrain growing populations and economic expansion. Understanding the concept of “peak water” and the strategies that might be available to avoid these constraints is key to moving toward a more efficient and sustainable water future.

The impact of nursing sustainable prevention program on heat strain among agricultural elderly workers in the context of climate change

BackgroundThis study assesses a geriatric nursing-led sustainable heat prevention program for elderly agricultural workers. It targets those aged 60 and above, addressing the heightened risk of heat strain in the era of climate change. MethodsA community-based quasi-experimental design involved 120 elderly agricultural workers, divided into intervention and control groups. The program, spanning three months, included education on hydration, rest, protective clothing, and recognition of heat-related illnesses. ResultsThe intervention led by geriatric nursing professionals showed significant improvements in heat strain metrics. The Heat Strain Score Index (HSSI) and the Observational-Perceptual Heat Strain Risk Assessment (OPHSRA) Index indicated increased safety levels and reduced risk categories among participants. ConclusionsThe study demonstrates the effectiveness of a geriatric nursing-led, tailored prevention program in reducing heat strain among elderly agricultural workers. It highlights the crucial role of nursing in adapting healthcare practices to the challenges posed by climate change. Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov, ID NCT06192069 retrospectively registered.

Detecting climate milestones on the path to climate stabilization

The era of anthropogenic climate change can be described by defined climate milestones. These milestones mark changes in the historic trajectory of change, and include peak greenhouse gas emissions, peak greenhouse gas concentration, deceleration of warming, net-zero emissions, and a transition to global cooling. However, given internal variability in the Earth system and measurement uncertainty, definitively saying that a milestone has passed requires rigour. Here CMIP6 simulations of peak-and-decline scenarios are used to examine the time needed to robustly detect three climate milestones: (1) the slowdown of global warming; (2) the end of global surface temperature increase; and (3) peak concentration of CO2. It is estimated that it will take 40 to 60 years after a simulated slowdown in warming rate, to robustly detect ( >95% change) the signal in the global average temperature record. Detecting when warming has stopped will also be difficult and it takes until the mid 22nd century to have enough data to conclude warming has stopped. Detecting that CO2 concentration has peaked is far easier and a drop in CO2 concentration of 3 ppm is consistent with a greater than 99% chance that CO2 has peaked in all scenarios examined. Thus it is likely that as the rate of CO2 emissions is reduced, and net-zero emissions is approached, interpreting the global temperature record will become difficult—with a high potential to create confusion amongst policy makers and the general public.

Arthropod-Borne Viruses of Human and Animal Importance: Overwintering in Temperate Regions of Europe during an Era of Climate Change.

The past three decades have seen an increasing number of emerging arthropod-borne viruses in temperate regions This process is ongoing, driven by human activities such as inter-continental travel, combined with the parallel emergence of invasive arthropods and an underlying change in climate that can increase the risk of virus transmission and persistence. In addition, natural events such as bird migration can introduce viruses to new regions. Despite the apparent regularity of virus emergence, arthropod-borne viruses circulating in temperate regions face the challenge of the late autumn and winter months where the arthropod vector is inactive. Viruses therefore need mechanisms to overwinter or they will fail to establish in temperate zones. Prolonged survival of arthropod-borne viruses within the environment, outside of both vertebrate host and arthropod vector, is not thought to occur and therefore is unlikely to contribute to overwintering in temperate zones. One potential mechanism is continued infection of a vertebrate host. However, infection is generally acute, with the host either dying or producing an effective immune response that rapidly clears the virus. There are few exceptions to this, although prolonged infection associated with orbiviruses such as bluetongue virus occurs in certain mammals, and viraemic vertebrate hosts therefore can, in certain circumstances, provide a route for long-term viral persistence in the absence of active vectors. Alternatively, a virus can persist in the arthropod vector as a mechanism for overwintering. However, this is entirely dependent on the ecology of the vector itself and can be influenced by changes in the climate during the winter months. This review considers the mechanisms for virus overwintering in several key arthropod vectors in temperate areas. We also consider how this will be influenced in a warming climate.

Harnessing Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems to Address Soil Degradation and Water Scarcity in Climate Change Era

Harnessing Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems to Address Soil Degradation and Water Scarcity in Climate Change Era

The Unappreciated Significance and Source of Meaning in Wild Landscapes: An Arctic Case

Wild places are rich with meaning. This runs contrary to accounts of vast undeveloped regions like the Arctic as being devoid of meaning (and thus open for—or even in need of—resource exploitation) and to accounts that dismiss conceptualizations of the Arctic as containing substantial wilderness landscapes as an invalid colonial concept. There is rather an unappreciated commonality between Indigenous conceptions of place and conceptualizations of wilderness: both recognize undeveloped landscapes as substantial founts of meaning that are not the product of their own projections. Their senses of these meanings are not equivalent but overlap in important respects and are shared by many cultures across the globe, thus challenging premises of relativism and of meaning as merely locally produced. Furthermore, meaning is a topic often overlooked or marginalized in the context of climate change adaptation and nature preservation. The Arctic is considered as a specific case study to illustrate these points as it is one of the world's largest undeveloped areas and is particularly affected by climate change. The Arctic is rich with meaning for the Inuit and other residents who depend on it for sustenance. It also contains some of the most extensive and least developed or otherwise impacted and manipulated landscapes on the planet—a relatively small portion of which is protected as parks and wilderness, though substantial in comparison to temperate or tropical regions. Climate change threatens not only the traditional subsistence livelihoods of Arctic residents, but also the emergent meanings that inhere in these landscapes. Simultaneously, the meaning and value of protected Arctic landscapes, particularly those designated as wilderness, is also under duress. Climate change is impacting the Arctic more than many other areas, posing a threat to its meanings as a home and as a wilderness. Acknowledging the centrality of meaning, while rejecting the “received idea” inherited from constructivist thought that meaning is overlaid on a passive landscape open for—or even in need of—human created meanings, can lead to new approaches to nature preservation and to human adaptation in the era of climate change.

Overexpression of SlWRKY6 enhances drought tolerance by strengthening antioxidant defense and stomatal closure via ABA signaling in Solanum lycopersicum L

Drought is a major handicap for plant growth and development. WRKY proteins comprise one of the largest families of plant transcription factors, playing important roles in plant growth and stress tolerance. In tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.), different WRKY transcription factors differentially (positively or negatively) regulate drought tolerance, however, the role of SlWRKY6 in drought response and the associated molecular mechanisms of stress tolerance remain unclear. Here we report that SlWRKY6, a member of the WRKYII-b group, is involved in the functional aspects of drought resistance in tomato. Transcriptional activation assays show that SlWRKY6 is transcriptionally active in yeast cells, while the subcellular localization assay indicates that SlWRKY6 is localized in the nucleus. Overexpression of SlWRKY6 in tomato plants resulted in stronger antioxidant capacity and drought resistance as manifested by increased photosynthetic capacity and decreased reactive oxygen species accumulation, malondialdehyde content and relative electrolyte leakage in transgenic tomato plants compared with wild-type under drought stress. Moreover, increased abscisic acid (ABA) content and transcript abundance of ABA synthesis and signaling genes (NCED1, NCED4, PYL4, AREB1 and SnRK2.6) in the transgenic tomato plants indicated potential involvement of the ABA pathway in SlWRKY6-induced drought resistance in tomato plants. Inspection of 2-kb sequences upstream of the predicted binding sites in the promoter of SlNCED1/4 identified two copies of the core W-box (TTGACC/T) sequence in the promoter of SlNCED1/4, which correlates well with the expression of these genes in response to drought, further suggesting the involvement of ABA-dependent pathway in SlWRKY6-induced drought resistance. The study unveils a critical role of SlWRKY6, which can be useful to further reveal the drought tolerance mechanism and breeding of drought-resistant tomato varieties for sustainable vegetable production in the era of climate change.

El Niño’s Implications for the Victoria Falls Resort and Tourism Economy in the Era of Climate Change

Scientists agree that as global temperatures rise, the intensity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon also increases. In southern Africa, El Niño events often cause severe droughts that adversely affect a region’s gross domestic product (GDP). However, the impact of El Niño on the tourism industry in this area has not been studied sufficiently. This study examines how frequently El Niño events occur and their consequences on the Victoria Falls resort. It specifically focuses on the potential implications for the regional tourism economy during the 2023–2024 El Niño event. This study critically analyses potential strategies for tourism businesses to enhance their resilience in light of the increasing intensity of El Niño events in the region. Using the Niño 3.4 index, it has been determined that there have been at least four extreme El Niño events since 1980: 1983, 1998, and 2016, and most recently, in 2023/24. Analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and hydrological data from the Victoria Falls hydrological station showed that El Niño events significantly affect water flows at Victoria Falls, negatively impacting the resort’s reputation and brand. Examination of tourism statistics reveals that drought often leads to a decline in tourism, negatively affecting tourist resort towns’ economies. Given the projected record-low water levels for late 2024, this study recommends implementing improved communication and marketing strategies that highlight low-water activities and other non-water-dependent tourism offerings at the resort to ensure the resilience of the tourism economy. There is an urgent need to promote resorts as year-round destinations to support the climate-resilient tourism sector.

Global Supply Chain Operations for Investment Locations Selection in Climate Change Variation

A livable city is a city where people can live comfortably and peacefully. The success of a livable city is achieved not only by physical advantage factors but also by social and economic factors. Livable cities must be investment-friendly to support economic functions. Investment-friendly cities will be the preferred locations for multinational corporations. Urban planners, designers, and managers need to devise urban development strategies that attract investors. This research aims to identify pivotal factors that drive investors' decision-making in selecting investment locations. This study focuses on the influence of global supply chain operations on investment location selection in the era of climate change, which is still relatively rare as it attempts to formulate regional development policies based on a demand-side approach. A demand-based approach requires identifying the investor's point of view in the investment location selection process. The Electronics and Automotive industry in the JABABEKA Industrial Area, Jakarta, Indonesia, is used as a case study. Primary data was collected from the respondents' perceptions and analyzed using the Structural Equation Model (SEM) method, applied in the software Smart PLS 3.2.8. The structural model used in this approach is formative. On a global scale, the choice of Indonesia as an investment location is influenced by (i) aspects of physical, social, and economic advantages related to cross-border trade and (ii) aspects of the supply chain related to the impact of climate change.

Bees, Butterflies, and Beyond the Diverse Pollinators, an Essence for the Reproductive Success of Flowering Plants

Pollinators are very critical when it comes to the reproductive success of plants. They promote outbreeding which holds immense significance in the era of global climate change. It allows the plants to become fertilized, to produce seeds, fruits, and eventually new plants. They are instrumental in the sustainability of our ecosystem. Thus, there is an essential need to study these pollinators to understand how, during the course of evolution, they have co-evolved with the flowering plants to shape floral architecture and community dynamics thriving in the vicinity. In this mini-view, we shall focus our discussion on some of the animal pollinators, the dwindling diversity of animal pollinators, and various associated pollination syndromes.

Unleashing the Potential of a Hybrid 3D Hydrodynamic Monte Carlo Risk Model for Maritime Structures’ Design in the Imminent Climate Change Era

Submarine pipelines have become integral for transporting resources and drinking water across large bodies. Therefore, ensuring the stability and reliability of these submarine pipelines is crucial. Incorporating climate change impacts into the design of marine structures is paramount to assure their lifetime safety and serviceability. Deterministic design methods may not fully consider the uncertainties and risks related to climate change compared to risk-based design models. The latter approach considers the future risks and uncertainties linked to climate and environmental changes, thus ensuring infrastructure sustainability. This study pioneers a Hybrid 3D Hydrodynamic Monte Carlo Simulation (HMCS) Model to improve the reliability-based design of submarine pipelines, incorporating the effects of climate change. Current design approaches may follow deterministic methods, which may not systematically account for climate change’s comprehensive uncertainties and risks. Similarly, traditional design codes often follow a deterministic approach, lacking in the comprehensive integration of dynamic environmental factors such as wind, waves, currents, and geotechnical conditions, and may not adequately handle the uncertainties, including the long-term effects of climate change. Nowadays, most countries are developing new design codes to modify the risk levels for climate change’s effects, such as sea-level rises, changes in precipitation, or changes in the frequency/intensity of winds/storms/waves in coastal and marine designs. Our model may help these efforts by integrating a comprehensive risk-based approach, utilizing a 3D hydrodynamic model to correlate diverse environmental factors through Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS). The hybrid model can promise the sustainability of marine infrastructure by adapting to future environmental changes and uncertainties. Including such advanced methodologies in the design, codes are encouraged to reinforce the resilience of maritime structures in the climate change era. The present design codes should inevitably be reviewed according to climate change effects, and the hybrid risk-based design model proposed in this research should be included in codes to ensure the reliability of maritime structures. The HMCS model represents a significant advancement over existing risk models by incorporating comprehensive environmental factors, utilizing advanced simulation techniques, and explicitly addressing the impacts of climate change. This innovative approach ensures the development of more resilient and sustainable maritime infrastructure capable of withstanding future environmental uncertainties.

Enhancing Credit Risk Assessment in the Era of Climate Change: A Machine Learning Approach for Loan and Lease Portfolios

Enhancing Credit Risk Assessment in the Era of Climate Change: A Machine Learning Approach for Loan and Lease Portfolios