Climate Change Scenarios A2 Research Articles

Drought trends projection under future climate change scenarios for Iran region.

The study highlights the potential characteristics of droughts under future climate change scenarios. For this purpose, the changes in Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) under the A1B, A2, and B1 climate change scenarios in Iran were assessed. The daily weather data of 30 synoptic stations from 1992 to 2010 were analyzed. The HadCM3 statistical model in the LARS-WG was used to predict the future weather conditions between 2011 and 2112, for three 34-year periods; 2011-2045, 2046-2079, and 2080-2112. In regard to the findings, the upward trend of the potential evapotranspiration in parallel with the downward trend of the precipitation in the next 102 years in three scenarios to the base timescale was transparent. The frequency of the SPEI in the base month indicated that 17.02% of the studied months faced the drought. Considering the scenarios of climate change for three 34-year periods (i.e., 2011-2045, 2046-2079, and 2080-2112) the average percentages of potential drought occurrences for all the stations in the next three periods will be 8.89, 16.58, and 27.27 respectively under the B1 scenario. While the predicted values under the A1B scenario are 7.63, 12.66, and 35.08%respectively. The relevant findings under the A2 scenario are 6.73, 10.16, 40.8%. As a consequence, water shortage would be more serious in the third period of study under all three scenarios. The percentage of drought occurrence in the future years under the A2, B1, and A1B will be 19.23%, 17.74%, and 18.84%, respectively which confirms the worst condition under the A2 scenario. For all stations, the number of months with moderate drought was substantially more than severe and extreme droughts. Considering the A2 scenario as a high emission scenario, the analysis of SPEI frequency illustrated that the proportion of dry periods in regions with humid and cool climate is more than hot and warm climates; however, the duration of dry periods in warmer climates is longer than colder climates. Moreover, the temporal distribution of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration indicated that in a large number of stations, there is a significant difference between them in the middle months of the year, which justifies the importance of prudent water management in warm months.

Assessing the Global Pest Risk of Aeolesthes sarta with Regards to the Host Specie Populus alba under Climate Change Scenarios

Aeolesthes sarta or Trirachys sarta is a polyphagous long-horned beetle that has caused severe damage to the Populus alba forests/plantations in its regions of origin. Climate change could accelerate the introduction and spread of invasive pest species, potentially causing ecological damage and economic losses. Furthermore, globalization and increased trade can inadvertently transport pests across borders into regions where they do not already occur. Hence, it is crucial to identify areas where the climate is most suitable for the establishment of A. sarta’s and which areas of the world are suitable for the growth of P. alba under climate change scenarios. This study employed the CLIMEX model to estimate the potential global distribution of A. sarta and its correlation with its dominant host, P. alba, under current climatic conditions and potential future scenarios, namely the A1B and A2 climate change scenarios (CCSs). Under current climatic conditions, the model indicates that the establishment of a climatically suitable habitat for A. sarta extends beyond its current known range. The model estimated that, under the world’s current climatic conditions, 41.06% of the world can provide suitable areas (EI > 0) for the survival of A. sarta. For P. alba, under the current climatic conditions, suitable regions for the growth of P. alba are present in all continents (excluding Antarctica); under the world’s current climatic conditions, 53.52% of the world can provide suitable areas for the growth of P. alba (EI > 0). Climate change will significantly alter the number of suitable habitats for A. sarta development and P. alba growth globally. In future climatic conditions, the number areas capable of supplying suitable habitats (EI > 0) for A. sarta will slightly decrease to 40.14% (under A1B and A2 CCSs), while, for P. alba, the number areas capable of supplying suitable habitats will also marginally decrease to 50.39% (under A1B scenario), and this figure is estimated to drop to 48.41% (under A2 scenario) by the end century (2100). Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and Oceania have a high percentage of highly suitable areas for A. sarta development and P. alba growth under current climatic conditions; however, according to estimates of future climatic conditions, by the end century, only Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania will have a high percentage of highly suitable areas for A. sarta development and P. alba growth. The range of highly suitable habitats is likely to increase in the northern hemisphere; however, this range is expected to shrink with regards to the southern hemisphere. The range contraction was higher under the A2 climate change scenario due to a higher warming trend than in the A1B scenario. Due to climate change, the range of A. sarta development shifted, as did the P. alba growth range, which, thanks to the suitable environmental conditions for the growth of P. alba, makes all those regions vulnerable to the introduction and development of A. sarta. Strict monitoring, prevention, and control measures at borders, airports, and seaports before the trade of P. alba and other suitable host species wood (logs/billets) are highly recommended to prevent the spread of A. sarta and ensure biodiversity security. It is expected that the A. sarta and P. alba climate models presented here will be useful for management purposes since both can be adapted to guide decisions about imparting resources to regions where the threat of pest invasion remains and away from regions where climate suitability is predicted to decrease in the future.

The impact of water conservation policies on the reallocation of agricultural water-land resources

The effects of policies on farmers' profit have a key role in their adoption by the farmers and their operationalization at the basin level. The present research explored the effects of water resources conservation policies on optimal cropping pattern and farmers' profit in the Zayanderud basin located Iran using a combined hydrological-economic model composed of WEAP and multi-objective (MOP) models for the assessment of the effects of the A2 climate change scenario with or without the conservation policies. The results showed that climate change will reduce crop yields by 0.5–4%, will decrease water availability by 12–19%, and will increase crop water requirements by 0–4%. It was also found that the adoption of the policy of changing irrigation technology along with the policy of limiting groundwater use will alleviate the effects of climate change on the farmers' profit, will enhance their planned return per unit area by 5%, and will increase the economic efficiency of water use from 5,283 to 6,002 IRR/m3. But, the policy of increasing water price cannot improve the farmers' profit at the basin level and the economic efficiency of water use although it can reduce water use. So, proving the improvement of profit and livelihood of the farmers by applying combined water resources conservation policies can play a significant role in motivating farmers to accept these policies, operationalizing optimal water resources management, and resolving conflicts over water use in this basin.

Modelling future spatial distribution of peanut crops in Australia under climate change scenarios

ABSTRACT One of the major impacts of climate change in the agricultural sector relates to changes in the suitability of areas that are used for planting crops. Since peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) is one of the most important sources of protein, an assessment of the potential shifts in peanut crop planting areas is critical. In this study, we evaluated the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of peanut crops in Australia. The current and potential future distributions of peanut crops were modeled using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) of CLIMatic indEX (CLIMEX). The future potential peanut crop distributions in Australia for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 were modeled by employing CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H Global Climate Models (GCMs) under SRES A2 climate change scenarios from CliMond 10’ database. The results indicated an increase in unsuitable areas for peanut cultivation in Australia throughout the projected years for the two GCMs. The CSIRO-Mk3.0 projection of unsuitable areas in 2100 was higher (i.e. 76% of the Australian continent) than the MIROC-H projection (i.e. 48% of the Australian continent). It was found that the projected increase in dry stress in the future could cause limitations in areas that are currently suitable for peanut crop cultivation. Looking into the future suitability of existing peanut cultivation areas, both GCMs agreed that some areas will become unsuitable, while they disagreed with the suitability of other areas. However, they agreed on the important point that only a small number of existing peanut cultivation areas would still be suitable in the future. Using CLIMEX, the present study has confirmed the effects of climate change on the shifts in areas suitable for peanut cultivation in the future, and thus may provide valuable information relevant to the long-term planning of peanut cultivation in Australia.

Effects of climate change in the thermal and energy performance of low-income housing in Brazil—assessing design variable sensitivity over the 21st century

To increase the accuracy of energy efficiency interventions over a building's lifetime, it is essential to predict the impact of climate change. Studies have analyzed building performance under future environmental conditions in Brazil, but the influence of design variables in the whole thermal and energy performance is a topic that still needs to be addressed. The objective of this study was to analyze the effects of climate change on the thermo-energetic performance of Brazilian low-income housing in the climates of two cities: Belém and São Paulo. For this, the research was based on computer simulations and Morris global sensitivity analysis, observing the influence of design variables in different periods. Weather files were generated to represent future environmental conditions according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 scenario. The results prove that building design must necessarily consider climate change for a resilient built environment and highlight the importance of design variables, especially in the São Paulo climate. In view of future higher temperatures, the sensitivity indices indicate that natural ventilation is crucial for building performance improvements, followed by solar absorptance of the envelope and thermal transmittance of the walls. Finally, this study contributes to design decision-making for low-income housing in tropical climates and underscores the need for investigation of how to design resilient buildings, focusing on strategies to mitigate climate change and reduce pollutant emissions.

Historical and projected changes in hydrological and sediment connectivity under climate change in a tropical catchment of Mexico

Hydrological and erosion dynamics are prone to change due to natural factors, human activities, or climate change. These changes are mainly related to modifications of land use and cover and can be assessed through the concept of connectivity, which analyzes how the spatial distribution of the elements facilitates runoff and sediment transport. The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in hydrological and sediment connectivity over 42 years and projected under a climate change scenario in the tropical Santa Cruz catchment in Aquismón, S.L.P., Mexico. The index of connectivity (IC) was computed using SedInConnect version 2.3 and the ArcSWAT model to estimate runoff. Hydrological connectivity and runoff were projected for 2027 using the MPI ECHAM 5 in the A2 climate change scenario. The results indicated that spatio-temporal changes in land use/cover, in conjunction with geomorphological features and expected climate change, would modify hydrological and sediment connectivity, especially in flat areas, where conversion of natural vegetation to cropland was steadily increasing over the years. Under future conditions, runoff and sediment transport are likely to increase, which will impact soil erosion and vulnerability to flooding but will not necessarily be negative. The study shows how spatial-temporal integration of runoff, sediments, landforms, land use cover and change, and connectivity can improve our understanding of catchment dynamics and the importance of analyses that characterize their evolution. The results can subsequently be applied and replicated in other catchments for management and restoration purposes.

Production suitability of date palm under changing climate in a semi-arid region predicted by CLIMEX model

ObjectivesDate palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.), a member of the Arecaceae family is grown on large areas in the world with varying climatic and soil conditions. However, date palm productivity is severely being affected by ongoing climate changes. Identifying suitable production areas for date palm under changing climatic conditions could help to sustain its production. The objective of the current study was to predict the range expansion/contraction in the production areas of date palm in a semi-arid region. MethodsCLIMEX model was used to estimate the expected expansion/contraction in the potential distribution areas of date palm under current and future climatic conditions. Two climate change scenarios [(CCSs) i.e., A1B and A2] were used and production suitability was predicted for three timespans [i.e., 2030 (early-century), 2050 (mid-century) and 2100 (late century)]. ResultsThe model estimated significant suitable area (71.21%) for date palm cultivation under current climatic conditions. Climate change seemed to have no impact on production areas until early-century. However, range contraction (8 and 10% decline under A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively) in the suitable areas was predicted for mid-century. Nonetheless, severe range contraction (27.98 and 33% decline under A1B and A2 scenarios, respectively) was predicted in the production areas for late-century. Most of the climatically suitable areas during early-century became unsuitable during late-century. Moreover, the model predicted northward shift in the production areas for date palm. The range contraction was higher under A2 climate change scenario due to higher warming trend compared to A1B scenario. ConclusionThe results of the current study indicate that plenty of areas are suitable for date palm cultivation. Thus, date palm cultivation could be increased in these areas for augmenting the production. Climate warming will result in the range shifts; thus, cultivation of future orchards should be planned in the most suitable areas in order to avoid the negative consequences of climate change on date palm production in the country.

Phytoplankton Community Response to Nutrients, Temperatures, and a Heat Wave in Shallow Lakes: An Experimental Approach

Phytoplankton usually responds directly and fast to environmental fluctuations, making them useful indicators of lake ecosystem changes caused by various stressors. Here, we examined the phytoplankton community composition before, during, and after a simulated 1-month heat wave in a mesocosm facility in Silkeborg, Denmark. The experiment was conducted over three contrasting temperature scenarios (ambient (A0), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 scenario (circa +3 °C, A2) and A2+ %50 (circa +4.5 °C, A2+)) crossed with two nutrient levels (low (LN) and high (HN)) with four replicates. The facility includes 24 mesocosms mimicking shallow lakes, which at the time of our experiment had run without interruption for 11 years. The 1-month heat wave effect was simulated by increasing the temperature by 5 °C (1 July to 1 August) in A2 and A2+, while A0 was not additionally heated. Throughout the study, HN treatments were mostly dominated by Cyanobacteria, whereas LN treatments were richer in genera and mostly dominated by Chlorophyta. Linear mixed model analyses revealed that high nutrient conditions were the most important structuring factor, which, regardless of temperature treatments and heat waves, increased total phytoplankton, Chlorophyta, Bacillariophyta, and Cyanobacteria biomasses and decreased genus richness and the grazing pressure of zooplankton. The effect of temperature was, however, modest. The effect of warming on the phytoplankton community was not significant before the heat wave, yet during the heat wave it became significant, especially in LN-A2+, and negative interaction effects between nutrient and A2+ warming were recorded. These warming effects continued after the heat wave, as also evidenced by Co-inertia analyses. In contrast to the prevailing theory stating that more diverse ecosystems would be more stable, HN were less affected by the heat wave disturbance, most likely because the dominant phytoplankton group cyanobacteria is adapted to high nutrient conditions and also benefits from increased temperature. We did not find any significant change in phytoplankton size diversity, but size evenness decreased in HN as a result of an increase in the smallest and largest size classes simultaneously. We conclude that the phytoplankton community was most strongly affected by the nutrient level, but less sensitive to changes in both temperature treatments and the heat wave simulation in these systems, which have been adapted for a long time to different temperatures. Moreover, the temperature and heat wave effects were observed mostly in LN systems, indicating that the sensitivity of phytoplankton community structure to high temperatures is dependent on nutrient availability.

Impact of Climate Change on the Performance of Wastewater Treatment Plant: Case study Central Irbid WWTP (Jordan)

Limited studies were carried out to assess the impact of climate change on the performance of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Therefore this study aims to assess the consequences of climate change on the central Irbid WWTP which is located in northern Jordan. For this purpose the statistical downscaling Model (SDSM) and the outputs of the HadCM3 global climate model were used to produce two climate change scenarios A2 and B2. The two scenarios cover the periods 2050-2065 and 2080-2099. These scenarios were used conjunction with a wastewater simulation model (STOAT) to assess the impact of climate change on the performance of the Central Irbid WWTP. The results revealed that the BOD removal will increase in summer season by about 6 mg/l for periods 2050-2065 and 2080-2099 under both Scenarios A2 and B2. For winter season it is expected that the BOD removal will be reduced up to 8 mg/l. On the other hand, the results indicated an improvement in COD removal up 6 mg/l in the summer season while in the winter it is expected to decree mg/l. The removal of TSS was slightly affected by the climate change

Effects of copper exposure and increased temperatures on Collembola in western Washington, USA

In the city of Seattle and the surrounding Puget Sound region, increased human population and the resulting increased domestic and commercial transportation has led to higher inputs of heavy metal pollutants in the region, many of which have been shown to increase in toxicity for various organisms at higher temperatures. One pollutant of concern in the region is copper (Cu) from brake and tire attrition. The extent to which Cu can affect other organisms that are part of the Puget Sound ecosystem is largely unknown. We studied the effect of Cu exposure on two species of Collembola, one of which is a native species (Choreutinula americana Palacios-Vargas, Castaño-Meneses & Gao) inhabiting the region's epiphytic mosses and lichen while the other is a model species commonly used in ecotoxicology studies (Folsomia candida Willem). We then extended this work by examining the effect of Cu exposure when Collembola are exposed to increased temperatures as predicted by the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. We found that the native Collembolan was significantly more sensitive to Cu than the model species when maintained under a constant 20 °C, suggesting that ecotoxicology studies using the model species F. candida might underestimate the effect of toxicants to native Collembola. We also observed that increased temperatures significantly lowered the tolerance of both species to Cu. The results of this study highlight the joint effect of warming temperatures and pollutants on a representative species of Collembola in the Pacific Northwest.

Sun, shade and natural daylight in South African town planning, with emphasis on Pretoria

A bioclimatic analysis of different South African towns and cities indicates that, if the correct mix of passive design principles is used, they all have a significant passive design potential. Of all such measures, solar protection and shading is the single most important passive design measure to reduce energy usage and to improve internal comfort for buildings in all South African climatic regions. The correct design of public open spaces and streets facilitates, to a great extent, energy-efficient buildings, whilst at the same time providing functional and comfortable urban open spaces and streets. Passive solar buildings aim to maintain interior thermal comfort throughout the sun’s diurnal and annual cycles, whilst reducing the requirement for active heating and cooling systems. The aim of this article is to investigate the effect of climate zones on passive design potential, of which shading design is an integral part, using Pretoria as a case study. This includes the effect of street width, building height, street layout, orientation, and the amount of sunlight available for trees and plants in the urban environment. The Spatial Planning and Land Management Act (2013), City of Tshwane Land Use Management By-law (2016) and the Tshwane Town-Planning Scheme 2008 (Revised 2014) were used as regulatory framework. To support the research, an Early Design Phase (EDP) experimental research platform was used to investigate the amount of sunlight on building facades with different orientations. This method enables the calculation of shading angles where there is a balance between the hot periods (requiring cooling) and cool periods (requiring heating) from the urban and building perspective. This has been achieved by means of the development of analytical software that uses weather files as one of the inputs to calculate critical solar angles. Over and above the calculation of current building solar protection angles, this method also facilitates the calculation of the increase in solar protection that will be required with climate change such as with the expected A2 climate change scenario (business-as-usual scenario) for South Africa. To support the EDP analysis, detailed simulations were also undertaken by means of Ecotect v5.60. Keywords : Cities, climate change, natural daylight, shade, sun, South Africa

ESCENARIOS DE LA DISTRIBUCIÓN POTENCIAL DE Pinus patula Schltdl. et Cham. Y Pinus pseudostrobus Lindl. CON MODELOS DE CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO EN EL ESTADO DE MÉXICO


 
 
 Las repercusiones del cambio climático (CC) en el desarrollo de la flora modificarán la distribución espacial de los ecosistemas forestales. Algunas especies migrarán hacia mayores altitudes y a otras latitudes, por lo que desaparecerán total o parcialmente de su área original. El objetivo del estudio que se describe consistió en comparar la distribución potencial actual de Pinus patula y de Pinus pseudostrobus bajo escenarios de CC con modelos de circulación general (MCG) de la atmósfera y con Ensamble regional (Er) de MCG. Para 2030, el área de P. patula con escenarios de CC A2 calculada mediante GFDL 2.0 tuvo 10 705 ha más de superficie de aptitud alta que HADGEM, mientras que el Er de MCG fue mayor, con 84 926 ha que GFDL. Respecto a 2050, esta aptitud con GFDL 2.0 registró mayor territorio que HADGEM, con 20 482 ha; el Er de MCG fue más alto con 62 954 ha que GFDL 2.0. Para 2030, el GFDL 2.0 de P. pseudostrobus determinó siete hectáreas más de aptitud alta que HADGEM; por el contrario, el Er de MCG fue superior, con 86 555 ha que GFDL 2.0. Para 2050, mediante este último, la cifra es más grande que con HADGEM, por 264 ha; el Er de MCG resultó con 84 457 ha que a través de GFDL 2.0. La distribución potencial de los dos taxa en el Estado de México con escenarios de CC tiende a reducir su superficie. Los escenarios de Ensamble de MCG permiten generar resultados aplicados con más detalle que los MCG.
 
 

Influence of the surface moraine on the state of Djankuat Glacier (Central Caucasus) by 2025

Current glaciation of the Central Caucasus is in the regressive stage of evolution. Observed long rising of the air temperature in the ablation seasons (almost 1 °C since 1968 on the Djankuat Glacier) together with insignificant growth of winter precipitation caused a long period of the glacier degradation: since 1871 the mass balance of the glacier, with rare exceptions, remained negative. During this time, the glacier has lost about 60 m w.e. mainly by areas of the smallest ice thickness, i.e. the steep slopes of the rocky framing of the fi n basin which become exposing from ice due to conditions of extreme instability. In parallel with the processes of freezing and thawing in cracks, this leads to a signifi ant increase in the frequency of rockfalls. In 2001–2003, huge rockfalls occurred on the glacier from the slopes, which had recently undergone deglaciation. The last one covered 4% of the glacier surface with about 70 000 m3of clastic products. The marine cover differs significantly from the open ice surface in its thermal characteristics, which affect the structure of the thermal balance and the absolute values of ablation. The temperature inside the moraine is positive throughout the ablation season, even at a depth of 60 cm, but the absolute values of daily maximum melting are five times lower than those on open ice. The influence of the moraine material layer on the ablation is determined not only by its thickness, but also by the structure. The fi ld experiment conducted in 2011 demonstrated that melting under a layer of coarse-grained material (particle diameter 16–17 cm) is four times faster than under a layer of fi e-grained (7–8 cm) material equal in thickness. The study of the influence of the surface moraine and the account of its further growth in thickness and area made it possible to predict changes in the surface of the glacier by 2025. The climatic forecast was made using the HadCM3 model (A2 climate change scenario). Data on air temperature and precipitation were used to construct a predictive fi ld of the mass balance of the Djankuat Glacier for each year until 2025. Th s became possible by the use of a quantitative parameterized relationship between the mass balance of the entire glacier and each of its points, identifi d in the study of the total mass transfer of the glacier, as well as parameterized linear regression equations. The forecast of hypsometry of the Djankuat Glacier made it possible to determine that by 2025 the depression of the tongue areas covered by the moraine will be 7–15 m (or 42–45%) smaller than areas of the open ice. Th s means that at the present stage of the glaciation development the surface moraine plays a role in the evolution of the glacier, commensurable with the climate factor.

Áreas potenciales y vulnerabilidad del cultivo de café tipo robusta (Coffea canephora P.) al cambio climático en el estado de Tabasco, México

El gobierno federal a través de la Dirección General de Zonas Tropicales de la Secretaría de Agricultura, Ganadería, Desarrollo Rural, Pesca y Alimentación (SAGARPA), ha venido im-pulsando la apertura de 20,000 ha del cultivo de café robusta en los estados del sur-sureste. Como parte de esa iniciativa se realiza el presente estudio para determinar en qué áreas del estado de Tabasco este tipo de café puede prosperar exitosamente y cuáles serían los impactos del cambio climático a mitad del siglo XXI, en su adaptación y rendimiento. Así, el objetivo del presente estudio fue: determinar las mejores áreas desde el punto de vista de clima y suelo, para cultivar café tipo robusta (Coffea canephora P.) en el estado de Tabasco y su posible vulnerabilidad al cambio climático a mediados del presente siglo.Método: Lo anterior se realizó utilizando la metodología de Zonificación Agro-Ecológica (ZAE) pro-puesta por la FAO para las condiciones actúales y para el escenario de cambio climático (RCP8.5), esperado a mediados del siglo XXI.Asimismo, se estimaron los rendimientos potenciales para tres niveles de insumo (bajo, medio y alto) en las áreas resultantes muy aptas, para ambas condiciones climáticas, utilizando el método de Zonas Agro-Ecológicas (ZAE) propuesto por la FAO (1981) y actualizado por Fischer et al. (2012).Resultados: Los resultados indican que de ocurrir un incremento promedio diario de 1.6 ºC para el año 2050, bajo el peor escenario (RCP8.5), la superficie muy apta para cultivar café tipo robusta en el estado de Tabasco no se modifica. En cambio, los rendimientos potenciales promedio disminuirán en 41% para el año 2050, debido al efecto del incremento de las temperaturas diurnas sobre la tasa fotosintética máxima.Discusión: En el estado de Tabasco existen actualmente 154,755.14 ha edafoclimáticamente muy aptas para establecer el cultivo de café tipo robusta. Bajo el escenario de cambio climático A2 (RCP8.5) se espera un incremento en la temperatura promedio diaria de 1.6 ºC, la cual no afectará la aptitud edafoclimática del café robusta. Los rendimientos potenciales promedio varían en función del nivel de insumos para la edad y densidad de siembra señalada.

Modified climate influence on rates development of spring barley in Ukraine

Materials of World statistics show that today climate change on the planet coincides with the period of the rise of food shortages in the world community. To assess the possible impact of climate change in Ukraine agro-climatic indicators used two scenarios: a "moderate" - A1B which provides a balance between all energy sources, and "hard" - A2, which provides for ne-uncertainty regarding the determining factors and is based on the use of cut - modeling concepts that are used are similar, assumptions regarding determinant factors. One of the simplest methods reflect possible changes in the climate regime any meteorological values are compared with past data, including se-sized perennial in the reference period. In this study, the baseline is set between 1986 and 2005 according to agro-climatic directory Ukraine. According to calculations by climate change scenarios A2 and A1B terms and sowing spring barley next phase of development before. But the pace of the offensive phase, resulting in phase between the time for all periods will increase, which will increase the growing season. The most significant change scenarios will be observed in the amounts of precipitation. These changes will increase slight moisture crops in all areas except the steppe.

Modelling climate change impacts on anchovy and sardine landings in northern Chile using ANNs

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are adjusted to predict monthly landings of anchovy ( Engraulis ringens ) and sardine ( Sardinops sagax ) in northern Chile (18°21’-24°00’S). Fishing effort (FE), landings and twelve environmental variables are considered from 1980 to 2012. External validation for the best models using all variables showed an R 2 of 95% for anchovy and 99% for sardine, with an efficiency of 0.94 and 0.96, respectively. The models were simplified by considering only FE and sea surface temperature (SST) from NOAA satellites (SST-NOAA). Using these variables, very similar fits were achieved, comparing with the previous models, maintaining their predictive capacity. Downscaled SST for A2 climate change scenario (20152065) obtained by statistical regionalization from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and three FE scenarios (2010-2012 average, + 50% and 50%), were used as inputs for ANN simplified models. For A2 future climate change scenario (2015-2065) using 2010-2012 average FE as inputs, anchovy and sardine landings would increase 2.8% and 19.2% by 2065 respectively. With FE variations (-50%), sardine landings show the highest increase (22.6%) by 2065 when FE is decreased.

Modelación hidrológica de una cuenca del norte árido de México y su respuesta a cambios ambientales

A basin’s hydrological services are becoming increasingly important due to the scarcity of water in many regions of the world. The aim of this research was to evaluate the impact of variations in climate patterns on runoff from the Sextin River basin using the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) hydrological model. The hydrological scheme was developed with vector and raster cartographic information, along with land-use, vegetation, climatological and hydrometric data of the study area. Model parameterization and calibration covered the period from 1971 to 2004. The model’s predictive performance was evaluated by NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency), % BIAS and R2, obtaining values of 0.81, 12.1 and 0.81, respectively. Future regionalized climate change scenarios were generated with the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) on the basis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B (rapid economic growth) and A2 (continuously increasing population) climate change scenarios, for the years 2020s (2010-2039) and 2050s (2040-2069). A possible mean annual increase of 1 °C, both for the maximum and minimum temperature, was observed in both analyzed periods. Increased precipitation and basin runoff were also projected in the regionalized climate scenarios. The information generated in this study can be useful for hydrological planning and management of the basin.

Die invloed van klimaatverandering op die Suid-Afrikaanse stad en voorgestelde aanpassings

The purpose of this article is to research the effect of climate change on the South African city and to recommend appropriate measures, based on the specific climatic zone. With increased climate change, it is getting increasingly important that the South African city should be resilient. Recently, the CSIR produced new climate and energy maps to replace the SANS 204 (2011) South African National Building Standards six zone climatic region map. To ensure the long-term applicability of the new climate map, it was decided that, over and above the use of historic climatic data, climate change should also be considered. An A2 climate change scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for the period 1961-2100 (Engelbrecht et al., 2011: 649) was used. An A2 scenario can be described as business as usual. Recent research predicts that southern Africa can expect a temperature increase of between 4°C to 6°C in hot western dessert areas (Engelbrecht & Engelbrecht, 2016: 247-261). Simultaneously, the amount of energy in the atmosphere increases, causing higher intensity storms (Emanuel, 2005: 686-688). The significant warming will have a severe impact on cities where the so-called Urban Heat Island (UHI) causes cities to be significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas. These factors indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on the southern African city. *This article is written in Afrikaans

Pelagic resources landings in central-southern Chile under the A2 climate change scenarios

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to predict landings of anchovy (Engraulis ringens), common sardine (Strangomera bentincki), and jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi) in central-southern Chile. Twelve environmental variables were considered along with fishing effort (fe) and landing statistics from 1973 to 2012. During external validation, the best models with all of the selected variables gave r2 values of 90 % for anchovy, 96 % for common sardine, and 88 % for jack mackerel. The models were simplified by considering only fe and sea surface temperature from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (SST-NOAA), and very similar fits were achieved (87, 92, and 88 %, respectively). Future SSTs were obtained from the A2 climate change scenario and regionalized using statistical downscaling techniques. The downscaled SSTs were used as input for landings predictions using ANN simplified models. In addition, three scenarios of future fishing efforts (2010–2012 average, average + 50 %, and average − 50 %) were used as the input data for landing simulations. The results of the predictions show a decrease of 9 % in future landings of sardine and an increase of 17 % for jack mackerel when comparing 2015 and 2065 monthly projections. However, no significant differences are shown when comparing the estimated landings for the three fishing effort scenarios. Finally, more integrative and complex conceptual models that consider oceanographic-biophysical, physiological, environmental-resource, and interspecies processes need to be implemented.

South African mouse shrews (Myosorex) feel the heat: using species distribution models (SDMs) and IUCN Red List criteria to flag extinction risks due to climate change

Five species of mouse or forest shrews (Myosorex) are endemic to South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland, four of which (Myosorex varius, Myosorex cafer, Myosorex longicaudatus and Myosorex cf. tenuis) are associated with montane or temperate grassland, fynbos and/or forest habitats while a fifth (Myosorex sclateri) is associated with lowland subtropical forests. Due to their small size, specialised habitat, low dispersal capacity, high metabolism and sensitivity to temperature extremes, we predicted that, particularly for montane species, future climate change should have a negative impact on area of occupancy (AOO) and ultimately extinction risks. Species distribution models (SDMs) indicated general declines in AOO of three species by 2050 under the A1b and A2 climate change scenarios (M. cafer, M. varius, M. longicaudatus) while two species (M. sclateri and M. cf. tenuis) remained unchanged (assuming no dispersal) or increased their AOO (assuming dispersal). While temperate species such as M. varius appear to be limited by temperature maxima (preferring cooler temperatures), the subtropical species M. sclateri appears to be limited by temperature minima (preferring warmer temperatures). Evidence for declines in AOO informed the uplisting (to a higher category of threat) of the Red List status of four Myosorex species to either vulnerable or endangered as part of a separate regional International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessment.