Effects of climate change in the thermal and energy performance of low-income housing in Brazil—assessing design variable sensitivity over the 21st century

Abstract

To increase the accuracy of energy efficiency interventions over a building's lifetime, it is essential to predict the impact of climate change. Studies have analyzed building performance under future environmental conditions in Brazil, but the influence of design variables in the whole thermal and energy performance is a topic that still needs to be addressed. The objective of this study was to analyze the effects of climate change on the thermo-energetic performance of Brazilian low-income housing in the climates of two cities: Belém and São Paulo. For this, the research was based on computer simulations and Morris global sensitivity analysis, observing the influence of design variables in different periods. Weather files were generated to represent future environmental conditions according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 scenario. The results prove that building design must necessarily consider climate change for a resilient built environment and highlight the importance of design variables, especially in the São Paulo climate. In view of future higher temperatures, the sensitivity indices indicate that natural ventilation is crucial for building performance improvements, followed by solar absorptance of the envelope and thermal transmittance of the walls. Finally, this study contributes to design decision-making for low-income housing in tropical climates and underscores the need for investigation of how to design resilient buildings, focusing on strategies to mitigate climate change and reduce pollutant emissions.