Modelling future spatial distribution of peanut crops in Australia under climate change scenarios

Abstract

ABSTRACT One of the major impacts of climate change in the agricultural sector relates to changes in the suitability of areas that are used for planting crops. Since peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) is one of the most important sources of protein, an assessment of the potential shifts in peanut crop planting areas is critical. In this study, we evaluated the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of peanut crops in Australia. The current and potential future distributions of peanut crops were modeled using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) of CLIMatic indEX (CLIMEX). The future potential peanut crop distributions in Australia for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 were modeled by employing CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H Global Climate Models (GCMs) under SRES A2 climate change scenarios from CliMond 10’ database. The results indicated an increase in unsuitable areas for peanut cultivation in Australia throughout the projected years for the two GCMs. The CSIRO-Mk3.0 projection of unsuitable areas in 2100 was higher (i.e. 76% of the Australian continent) than the MIROC-H projection (i.e. 48% of the Australian continent). It was found that the projected increase in dry stress in the future could cause limitations in areas that are currently suitable for peanut crop cultivation. Looking into the future suitability of existing peanut cultivation areas, both GCMs agreed that some areas will become unsuitable, while they disagreed with the suitability of other areas. However, they agreed on the important point that only a small number of existing peanut cultivation areas would still be suitable in the future. Using CLIMEX, the present study has confirmed the effects of climate change on the shifts in areas suitable for peanut cultivation in the future, and thus may provide valuable information relevant to the long-term planning of peanut cultivation in Australia.