Climate Ambition Research Articles

Features of Indonesia’s Low-Carbon Development Strategy

The purpose of the article is to identify trends and features of the development of a low-carbon economy and climate control tools in Indonesia using methods of content analysis, quantitative and comparative assessment. Climate goals declared for the period up to 2030 and 2050 are analyzed and there has been a rise in climate ambitions, based largely on measures to decarbonise the land and forestry sector. The peculiarity of Indonesia's climate goals is that they are defined relative to a business-as-usual scenario, which assumes the current rate of growth in greenhouse gas emissions and are calculated subject to the provision of international financial assistance. The long-term strategy for low-carbon development until 2050 is considered and government priorities in the field of climate regulation are identified. While forced to maintain coal generation as its long-term energy backbone, Indonesia is seeking to pursue other avenues: introducing carbon pricing, incentivizing renewable energy, increasing production of electric vehicles, and developing and deploying carbon capture technology. By providing state support to priority areas, Indonesia actively takes advantage of the opportunities provided by international financial organizations to finance climate projects. It is concluded that the long-term low-carbon development strategy and associated climate goals in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and the time frame for achieving carbon neutrality are quite moderate, since they are based on a comparison with the business-as-usual scenario. With this approach to strategic planning, it will be possible to achieve the set goals by implementing measures only in the land and forestry sector, while the volume of greenhouse gas emissions in other sectors may not decrease, but increase in absolute terms. This approach is explained by national interests and the desire to preserve coal generation in the energy sector.

Systematic Risks of the Global Lithium Supply Chain Network: From Static Topological Structures to Cascading Failure Dynamics.

Recent years have seen increasing concerns on supply chain risks of lithium, a critical material for achieving e-mobility transition and climate ambitions. These risks propagate both along the life cycle and across national boundaries in a multilayer network. However, most previous studies are either only based on static network measures or focused on individual layers, ignoring dynamic cascading risks and interconnected and interdependent relationships along life cycle stages and across economies. Here, we integrated trade-linked material flow and complex network analyses to investigate intricate interconnections, interdependencies, and systematic risks of the global lithium supply chain. Both static and dynamic measures of the global lithium supply chain network exhibit a "robust-yet-fragile" property: robust for random shocks yet fragile for targeted shocks and robust for small or local disruptions yet fragile for large or cascading failures. Portugal, Brazil, Singapore, Canada, Finland, Norway, South Africa, Israel, Hungary, and the United Arab Emirates are most likely to be affected by supply disruptions. A hypothetical USA-China trade decoupling will increase the severity and susceptibility of network-wide failures by around 5%. Our results call for global collaborations and collective efforts to balance efficiency and security and avoid a "zero-sum game" in securing the lithium supply chain.

Localization vs globalization of carbon emissions trading system (ETS) rules: how will China’s national ETS rules evolve?

ABSTRACT China’s national carbon emission trading system (C-ETS) is central to its climate action. Previous studies have largely focused on the unique ETS design and/or regulatory details to determine whether the ETS functions successfully. However, less attention has been paid to crucial questions of how China adapts ETS rules to its unique political, legal, economic, and social contexts; and, given China’s climate ambitions, how those rules will develop in future global climate governance. Adding to discussions on how to design the ETS legal infrastructure, this study takes the world’s largest ETS (C-ETS) as an example to discuss the critical question of what rules should be differentiated and what rules should be harmonized (e.g. in alignment with the arguable prototype EU ETS and/or those of strategic partners). First, by examining China’s general ETS institutional framework, its legal evolution, and related legal disputes, this study highlights a ‘central government-promoted model’ underlying China’s ‘localization’ of ETS rules. A Functional Comparative Legal Analysis Framework is proposed to identify China’s key, distinctive, and long-lasting ETS legal features and to examine their collective potential to provide effective, efficient, and just abatement incentives. Further situating the C-ETS in global climate governance, this study provides insights into the potential future development of China’s ETS rules, with policy priorities that vary across stages. Finally, we draw lessons for other jurisdictions and discuss how our analysis might assist in the transnational understanding and potential coordination of different ETS rules.

The public demands more climate action, not less

In this “biggest election year in history”, new governments are elected for around 50% of the world population. Election outcomes will substantially impact global climate action. Stronger governmental climate action is urgently needed, but political support for such action seems to weaken with the rise of the new right. Many new-right politicians oppose climate policy, and other politicians weaken their climate ambitions in response. However, substantial evidence shows that weakened support for governmental climate action opposes what the public wants. Across countries, demographics, and most political ideologies, majorities demand more—not less—governmental climate action. We explain in this essay why votes for new-right political parties should not be interpreted as votes against governmental climate action. Moreover, we explain why structural misperceptions of public opinion and biased political decision-making can lead politicians to oppose governmental climate actions that have strong public support. Finally, we propose ways in which political actors and policies could better represent what the public wants. These include ensuring that climate policies are designed to avoid negative impacts on other issues people also care about (e.g., job security, costs of living, trust in institutions, migration), or even improve such issues, while more actively highlighting the positive impacts of climate policy.

How is feasibility in local climate politics constructed? Balancing between appropriateness and consequence in advancing urban low-carbon plans

ABSTRACT How does ambitious climate action become politically feasible? The literature has tended to understand political feasibility through interactions between citizens and governing institutions, conditioned by the various costs and benefits for the actors involved. Instead, by considering the work of bureaucratic actors, this paper examines the practices of constructing feasibility in local climate planning. We draw on sociological institutionalism, focusing on the dynamics of fine-tuning between logics of appropriateness and consequence in achieving what is deemed ‘politically feasible.’ Taking climate politics in the City of Bergen (Norway) as a case study, this paper advances that what is deemed politically feasible is a product of calibrating (1) relevant policies with the city’s climate ambitions, (2) specific actions with open and inclusive processes, and (3) radical and ambitious solutions with the city’s current political climate. We discuss the implications of these results for the legitimization of climate planning locally.

How to align climate ambition and economic equality

How to align climate ambition and economic equality

Circular economy and the separated yet inseparable social dimension: Views from European circular city experts

Circular economy has received significant attention worldwide for its potential to reconcile ecological limits and economic development. Europe, in particular, has made it a policy focus for achieving its climate ambitions. However, to date, the circular economy remains a loosely defined concept with competing discourses of technocentrism and holistic societal transformation. As the former prevails, its neglect of the social dimension raises concerns about the circular economy's social sustainability and feasibility. Therefore, this study explores how the relationship between the circular economy and the social dimension is perceived by experts directly engaged in the current circular transition process. By uncovering their experiences and perceptions, this study aims to offer empirical insights for the future development of the circular economy. Through qualitatively exploring the views of 14 experts across 11 European cities with a clear circular vision, this study found that although the social dimension is not a primary focus or fundamentally connected with the circular economy, it plays a fundamental role in the transition process and is simultaneously an impacted area. However, there is a significant gap between the ideal social environment required for circular transition and what the current transition can facilitate. As such, the future of the circular economy may be precarious unless it shifts from a technocentric tendency to more holistic, transformational approaches.

Does ambition work? The effectiveness of local climate pledges in China

ABSTRACT This study employs a mixed research design to examine the effectiveness of local climate ambitions in China and identify the factors influencing their performance. The empirical results indicate that local governments’ ambitious climate pledges do not necessarily lead to better performance in low-carbon development compared to cities without such pledges. This conclusion is supported by various indices, including the low-carbon status index, the carbon emissions reduction trend index, the carbon peaking trend, and the decoupling degree of carbon emissions growth rate and GDP growth rate. By integrating the principal-agent theory, the study reveals that local governments often make climate pledges passively, driven by central government mandates rather than genuine ambition. This lack of true commitment is attributable to weak incentives and constraints, significant pressure to transition to low-carbon development, and the absence of robust monitoring and accounting systems.

IoT-Enabled Smart Agriculture: a Pathway to Nigeria's Economic Recovery and Sustainable

As Africa's largest economy, Nigeria has the potential to become a leading nation in economic recovery and sustainable development. The rapid growth of the Internet of Things (IoT) and the introduction of smart agriculture present an opportunity for Nigeria to create meaningful economic growth and improve livelihoods. This study is aimed at examining the potential of IoT-enabled smart agriculture to provide a pathway to economic recovery and sustainable development in Nigeria. The specific objectives are to review an overview of Nigeria's current agricultural sector and the challenges it faces, including security, privacy, cost, data management, energy, lack of access to knowledgeable farming techniques, and oversight of land use. The method adopted in this study was the incremental descriptive model (IDM). It then provides the potential solutions of IoT-enabled smart agriculture to address these challenges and provide Nigeria's agricultural sector with the resources it needs to both increase yields and improve environmental sustainability. Then it outlines the potential economic impacts of IoT-enabled Smart Agriculture, including increased productivity, improved farmers' access to modern technologies and services, and increased job opportunities for rural populations. It also focuses on the potential of the system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, providing crucial support for Nigeria's ambitious climate ambitions. In conclusion, with the right policies and measures put in place, the system can provide a pathway for economic growth and environmental sustainability. Moreover, the potential of the system to reduce poverty and provide job opportunities for rural populations offers a crucial opportunity for Nigeria to remain competitive in the global economy while simultaneously supporting its environmental goals.

The challenge of ratcheting up climate ambitions: Implementing the ‘experimentalist‘ EU energy and climate governance regulation

ABSTRACT The 2015 Paris climate Agreement established a ‘bottom-up’, pledge and review process as international climate governance’s central framework. The European Union’s governance framework – the Energy and Climate Governance Regulation (EUGR) – uses a similar architecture. Both require states to regularly create, revise and update national plans while ramping up ambitions towards meeting the collectively agreed commitments and sharing features of Experimentalist Governance. This paper contributes to the debate on experimentalist climate governance’s effectiveness. It assesses systematically the implementation of EUGR based on documentary analysis and expert interviews. We find that the process has been partially effective in raising ambitions but has remained incremental, technocratic and depoliticised. Experimentalist processes such as the EUGR and Paris Agreement require a high level of public and stakeholder engagement to operate but politicisation can have, in turn, adverse effects. This raises questions regarding the ability of experimentalist climate governance to deliver, alone, rapid emission reductions.

Tourism and climate change stocktake: a call to action

The first climate action stocktake cycle under the Paris Agreement was completed in 2023 to assess global progress on mitigation, adaptation, and climate finance goals. State-driven action needs to be complemented by sectoral efforts, and this paper builds on the first Tourism Stocktake undertaken in 2023 that examined climate action in the tourism sector. First, an expert elicitation survey was conducted to validate and deepen the findings from the stocktaking activity. Second, an analysis of the Stocktake’s 40 metrics was undertaken against six criteria of indicator quality. The expert survey revealed a sector still in the early stages of implementing its climate response, with a consensus that 2030 tourism emission reduction targets would not be achieved. Tourism policy and investment were deemed inconsistent with climate ambitions, and current adaptation is insufficient for projected climate change, so that future impacts will restrict tourism development in some destinations. Analysis of the metrics exposed significant data gaps and a core set of 13 robust metrics to measure change over the next stocktaking cycle is identified. The paper concludes with recommendations to advance sector capabilities and collaboration to monitor progress on climate action for an updated Tourism Stocktake in 2026.

Prospective impacts of windstorm risk on carbon sinks and the forestry sector: an integrated assessment with Monte Carlo simulations

Abstract Storms pose a significant threat to economic activities in the forest sector and introduce non-permanence risks for carbon stocks. Following escalating climate ambitions, understanding and addressing these risks becomes imperative. Uncertainties intrinsic to the storm phenomenon render this task complex. This study uses an integrated forest sector model to assess the economic and carbon impacts of storm regimes, emphasizing the importance of uncertainties through Monte Carlo simulation. From an economic perspective, we unravel complex interplays between the salvage and inventory effects of storms that lead to heterogeneous transfers of economic welfare across agents and space. Non-affected forest owners benefit from inflated prices, while affected owners’ recovery hinges on the magnitude of storm damage. From a climate perspective, storms significantly impact the forest sector’s carbon sink, with a high risk of falling short on mitigation objectives. In 25% of simulations, we observe a substantial 24% decrease in carbon sequestration. Our findings advocate for (1) conservative reliance on natural carbon sinks in national climate mitigation strategies toward net-zero, and (2) tailored risk-sharing insurance mechanisms for forest owners, providing a buffer against economic uncertainties arising from climatic disruptions.

African climate politics and multilateralism: Domestic factors and cross-country variation in climate ambitions

ABSTRACT This article examines how domestic factors explain variations in the ambitions of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. Although Africa contributes only 3.8% of global greenhouse gas emissions, it is highly vulnerable to climate change. All 54 African countries have ratified the Paris Agreement, and by May 2022, 44 had submitted updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs), showing strong commitment to mitigating global temperature rise. Although SSA countries’ NDCs are more robust than the global average, significant cross-country variations exist. This article builds on the limited research on these variations to explore whether democracy, GDP, oil consumption, and historical emissions influence NDC ambition across 44 SSA countries. The analysis finds a statistically significant negative relationship between GDP and NDC ambition, while other variables show no significance. This study is crucial for understanding how domestic factors shape climate commitments in SSA.

Evaluating the offshore wind business case and green hydrogen production: A case study of a future North Sea Offshore Grid

The European Union aims to increase its climate ambition and achieve climate neutrality by 2050. This necessitates expanding offshore wind energy and green hydrogen production, especially for hard-to-abate industrial sectors. A study examines the impact of green hydrogen on offshore wind projects, specifically focusing on a potential future North Sea offshore grid. The study utilizes data from the TYNDP 2020 Global Ambition scenario 2040, considering several European countries. It aims to assess new transmission and generation capacity utilization and understand the influencing factors. The findings show that incorporating green hydrogen production increases offshore wind utilization and capture prices. The study estimates that by 2040, the levelized cost of hydrogen could potentially decrease to €1.2-1.6/kg H2, assuming low-cost electricity supply and declining capital costs of electrolysers. These results demonstrate the potential benefits and cost reductions of integrating green hydrogen production into North Sea offshore wind projects.

Making Global Climate Action work for nature and people: Priorities for Race to Zero and Race to Resilience

There is increasing recognition in science and policy that the current nature and climate change crises are highly intertwined, and that these need to be jointly addressed. Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Race to Zero (R2Z) and the Race to Resilience (R2R) campaigns foster climate action by cities, regions, businesses, investors, and civil society organizations for mitigation and adaptation. The campaigns are part of UNFCCC-backed institutional arrangements linking intergovernmental climate governance with actions beyond national commitments to support the implementation of the Paris Agreement, also referred to as the Global Climate Action Agenda (GCAA). Both mobilization campaigns highlight and promote the contribution of nature to climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience. Yet, the integration of nature in climate ambition is more complex than indicated in the calls to action. We here identify key areas of concern in the alignment of climate and biodiversity goals, discussing the biophysical and socio-ecological considerations relative to (i) practices for enhancing land-based and marine sinks to limit warming; (ii) the unpredictability of biodiversity dynamics under climate change; (iii) the spatial scale at which actions can be implemented; and (iv) the types of metrics that can be used for tracking progress. We provide recommendations for the two mobilization campaigns to integrate in their criteria and metrics frameworks to support effective and equitable actions that deliver for climate, but also for nature and people. We then make a call to action for transdisciplinary knowledge production and dissemination that strengthens science-policy interactions.

Deployment of carbon removal technologies could reduce the rapid and potentially disruptive pace of decarbonization in South Africa's climate ambitions

As a developing country, South Africa faces the risk of having to undertake disruptive actions to meet its internationally pledged emission reduction targets. It has become necessary to find alternative measures for South Africa to meet its climate targets without such a disruptive and aggressive transformation of its energy sector. To truly reach net-zero CO2 emissions, South Africa must ensure that residual emissions from its recalcitrant sectors are equally compensated by carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Given the potential for CDR technologies to delay the need for rapid emissions cuts, we leverage this characteristic to explore their role in helping South Africa achieve its climate targets on time, but through a less disruptive and overly aggressive pace of energy system decarbonization. Using an integrated assessment model, we show that while reaching its emission reduction targets, the presence of novel CDR (nCDR) approaches could significantly reduce South Africa's mitigation costs to $155-240/tCO2 instead of $190–590/tCO2 by 2050 in the absence of nCDR. Furthermore, the availability of nCDR may allow for a more gradual transition towards renewable and nuclear power generation compared to scenarios without nCDR. Importantly, we reveal that nCDR could help avoid asset stranding of up to 4–6 GW and $15–25 billion in associated costs between 2016 and 2050. However, this comes at the cost of higher residual greenhouse gas emissions due to the continued reliance on fossil fuels under nCDR availability. Overall, South Africa's priority must remain on decarbonization, especially in sectors where fuel switching and energy efficiency are feasible. Nonetheless, the complementary role of nCDR must not be underestimated, and South Africa should begin investing in these emerging technologies to support its ambitious climate goals.

Biden's climate agenda: The most ambitious ever, or overlooking key technological bottlenecks?

The White House claims that Biden's Climate Agenda is “the most ambitious ever.” While the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Infrastructure Jobs Act (IJA) indeed do earmark billions of dollars for clean energy technologies, they also direct substantial sums of public money to conventional energy and fossil fuels. In comparison, energy storage technologies and projects—which are critical to renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles—are set to receive a much smaller amount. This marks a potentially substantial bottleneck that could eventually derail the administration's climate ambitions. By triangulating three sources of data: policy documents and funding commitments, trends in emissions reductions, and innovation, this article finds that Biden's Climate Agenda might not be as ambitious as the White House claims.

Residual emissions in long-term national climate strategies show limited climate ambition

Residual emissions in long-term national climate strategies show limited climate ambition

Climate Change as a New Factor of International Relations

This article explores the escalating impact of climate change and the global green transition on international relations, particularly in the aftermath of the Paris Agreement in 2015. While physical risks stemming directly from climate change consequences are a concern, the rise of transition risks associated with the global green shift poses significant threats to societies, political systems, and economies. The current emissions reduction targets outlined in the Paris Agreement are deemed inadequate to address the mounting physical risks, underscoring the imperative of enhancing states’ climate security. Transition risks are intricately linked to the fragmentation of global politics, driven by varying climate ambitions and disagreements on decarbonization methods among states. Fault lines emerge based on factors such as fossil fuel abundance, states’ positions in energy geopolitics, socio-economic development levels, utilization of green transition opportunities, and participation in international climate agreements. In this context, Russia confronts numerous risks, compelling the nation to articulate and advocate its unique vision of decarbonization while fostering alliances with non-Western states in this critical domain.

Reconciling Ireland’s climate ambitions with climate policy and practice: challenges, contradictions and barriers

Often perceived as a green nation, Ireland’s climate action reputation ranges from being regarded as a climate ‘laggard’ to being applauded as one of the first states to introduce supply-side ‘keep it in the ground’ (KIIG) legislation. In line with UNFCCC and IPCC advice, Ireland has committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 51% by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050. However such ambitions have not yet translated into sufficient transformations required to achieve the goals of a Paris Agreement compliant pathway. Major challenges surround Ireland’s transition to net zero, for example, the country’s fossil fuel dependency means oil and gas (mostly imported) account for around 80% of primary energy while emissions from agriculture, transport and electricity generation are increasing, rather than decreasing. Ireland is failing to meet national and EU GHG reduction targets, has had to buy emissions quotas to comply with legal requirements, and its interim 2030 target is below the EU’s Climate Law ambition. Contradictory policies, especially those influenced by ROI’s neoliberal orientation, undermine climate action and mean Ireland struggles to achieve GHG reductions, despite the state’s climate change legislation and policies. Concentrating on supply-side climate policy, this article examines key issues hampering Ireland’s ability to reconcile its climate ambitious with policy and practice. Adopting a critical political economy analysis, we explore multi-level drivers of climate and energy policies, examining challenges like the war in Ukraine, which prompted the Irish state to re-consider where and how it sources gas and oil, in turn threatening existing KIIG measures. In critically analysing challenges and contradictions, we identify multiple ideological, political and economic factors, in particular, the neoliberal, globalised economic model influencing the State’s current unsustainable, risky and contradictory policy direction. We conclude by articulating specific barriers hampering Ireland’s climate ambitions that must be addressed to enable a just transition to a sustainable future.