Does ambition work? The effectiveness of local climate pledges in China

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study employs a mixed research design to examine the effectiveness of local climate ambitions in China and identify the factors influencing their performance. The empirical results indicate that local governments’ ambitious climate pledges do not necessarily lead to better performance in low-carbon development compared to cities without such pledges. This conclusion is supported by various indices, including the low-carbon status index, the carbon emissions reduction trend index, the carbon peaking trend, and the decoupling degree of carbon emissions growth rate and GDP growth rate. By integrating the principal-agent theory, the study reveals that local governments often make climate pledges passively, driven by central government mandates rather than genuine ambition. This lack of true commitment is attributable to weak incentives and constraints, significant pressure to transition to low-carbon development, and the absence of robust monitoring and accounting systems.