The dynamics of clathrin coated pit (CCP) formation, observed through total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy, shows considerable diversity. Foremost is fate divergence, which leads to “abortive” and “productive” pits, i.e., structures which, respectively, do or do not mature into clathrin coated vesicles (CCVs). Also, there is notable heterogeneity in the lifetimes of abortive pits and the apparent time to the completion of productive CCPs. We explore the extent to which the stochastic nature of CCP growth can explain these observations. For this purpose we analyze a simple model that includes a kinetic scheme for CCP assembly and a related functional form for free energy of CCP formation. Using this model, we calculate the lifetime distribution of abortive pits (via Monte Carlo simulation) and fit it to experimental data to determine the exact effective potential experienced by CCPs. We show that the CCPs without cargo are energetically unstable, and that the binding of cargo might stabilize a CCP and thereby facilitate CCV formation. Finally, we estimate how variation in the time of CCV formation is linked to the stochastic associations and dissociations of coat components.