Civil Violence Research Articles

Coca, Clausewitz, and Colombia: The Inadequacy of Micro-level Studies in Explaining FARC Violence Against Civilians During the Colombian Civil War

Studies of micro-level violence make various claims to universality: namely, that there are patterns of violence in civil wars that are observable across time and space. The analysis of rebel violence against civilians constitutes one of the enduring themes of these studies. By evaluating the actions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) during the latter half of the Colombian civil war, this paper demonstrates that the claims of micro-level studies are unable to account for FARC’s violence against civilians. In response, this study provides an alternative framework for understanding FARC’s violence. Informed by the theories of Carl von Clausewitz it is possible to comprehend the logic of FARC’s violence against civilians within a strategic framework that aimed to advance the movement’s political goals. However, it also illustrates that FARC was influenced heavily by its involvement in the drugs trade. The main findings are a) that whilst FARC’s acts of violence may have contained similarities to that of other drugs cartels FARC did not become a narco-guerrilla organization, b) the case of FARC demonstrates that ultimately there are no reproducible patterns in war, micro-level or otherwise.

Resisting War: Guinean Youth and Civil Wars in the Mano River Basin

For more than two decades, the Mano River Basin was trapped in a spiral of violent civil wars at the centre of which were the region’s youth. However, in spite of the similarities in contexts, and despite its history and external attacks by insurgency groups based in Liberia and Sierra Leone, Guinea did not degenerate into a civil war. The immediate question then is, what factors might have been responsible at that time for mitigating the potential involvement of the country’s youth in a civil war, and can the lessons learned from Guinea be emulated in conflict-affected countries today? This article provides in-depth perspectives into the Guinean youth and the factors that mitigated their involvement in violent insurrections against the state from 1989 to 2011. It also juxtaposes the findings on Guinea with conclusions on factors responsible for involvement of youth in the civil wars in other countries in the region.

Using Statistics to Assess Lethal Violence in Civil and Inter-State War

What role can statistics play in assessing the patterns of lethal violence in conflict? This article highlights the evolution of statistical applications in assessing lethal violence, from the presentation of data in the Nuremberg trials to current questions around machine learning and training data. We present examples from work conducted by our organization, the Human Rights Data Analysis Group, and others, primarily researching killings in the context of civil wars and international conflict. The primary challenge we encounter in this work is the question of whether observed patterns of violence represent the true underlying pattern or are a reflection of reports of violence, which are subject to many sources of bias. This is where we find the foundations of twentieth-century statistics to be most important: Is this sample representative? What methods are best suited to reduce the bias in nonprobability samples? These questions lead us to the approaches presented here: multiple systems estimation, surveys, complete data, and the question of bias within training data for machine learning models. We close with memories of Steve Fienberg's influence on these questions and on us personally. “It's all inference,” he told us, and that insight informs our concerns about bias in data used to create historical memory and advance justice in the wake of mass violence.

Human Rights Violations and Violent Internal Conflict

This research project uses econometric methods and comparative, cross-national data to see whether violations of human rights increase the likelihood of the onset or escalation of violent protest, terrorism and/or civil war. The findings show that these types of violent internal conflict will occur and escalate if governments: (1) torture, politically imprison, kill, or “disappear” people, (2) do not allow women to participate fully in the political system, including allowing them to hold high level national political office, and (3) do not allow women to participate fully in the economic life of the nation by ensuring equal pay for equal work, by encouraging their entry to the highest paid occupations, and by protecting them from sexual harassment at their workplaces. These types of violations of human rights and the existence of large horizontal inequalities in societies independently produce an increased risk of the onset and escalation of many forms of violent internal conflict. The results also provide some evidence for the argument that there is a trade-off between liberty and security.

From Titanic to Game of Thrones: Promoting Belfast as a Global Media Capital

Using information gathered through analysis of screen industry–related promotion material and fieldwork conducted in Belfast in June 2017, this article traces the ways in which screen economy connected to James Cameron’s Titanic (1997) and HBO’s Game of Thrones and the celebratory discourse around these works brand Belfast as a dynamic global media capital. This study inquires into the ways in which association with screen industries contributes to the spatial value of a region, especially a post-industrial city that actively seeks to alter its past global image and association with a violent civil conflict. It also aims to contribute to the debate about the discourse on labor in creative cities by showing that while manufacturing labor is waning, its discourse of social welfare, hard labor, and craftsmanship transfers itself to creative industries that then justify themselves through the claim to inherit traditional industries’ economic strength, job opportunities, and work ethics.

School papers in Yemen. Critical presentation, summaries and translations of “Umm al‑Madāris. The Construction of the School of Banī ‘Alī, Yemen, 1956” by Muḥammad ‘Abd al‑Rahīm Jāzim (2018)

At the end of the summer of 2018, my colleague Muḥammad Jāzim, a Yemeni researcher at the French Centre for Archaeology and Social Sciences, sent me the first pages of an autobiographical manuscript entitled “Wahaj al‑dhākira” — “Spark of Memory” — written in 2017. Yemen was then, and has been for the past four years, the scene of a violent and murderous civil war, exacerbated for almost three years by the bombings of the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia. M. Jāzim is “confined” at home, i.e...

South Sudan’s Civil War, Violence, Insurgency, and Failed Peacemaking, by John Young

South Sudan’s Civil War, Violence, Insurgency, and Failed Peacemaking, by John Young

A Study of Contemporary Resistance Literature in Iran and the Arab World

Resistance literature usually refers to the literary works, which are influenced by various phenomena such as internal repression, absence of freedom, struggle against civil violence, and foreign invasion. Persian and Arabic literature include many prominent literary works in this genre of literature from the earliest ages of Iranian constitutional era and the Arab political movements and uprisings; therefore resistance literature holds a significant position in Persian and Arabic literature. This paper studies the fundamental features of Arabic and Persian resistance literature of the contemporary period. Additionally, the paper studies the various causes that led to the emergence of contemporary resistance literature during the different stages of contemporary history of literature. It does so by introducing the famous literary figures of the different periods. Furthermore, mythology and symbolism, which are important features of resistance literature and are employed by poets to express their thoughts, are analyzed with examples.

Obstacle to Peace? Ethnic Geography and Effectiveness of Peacekeeping

AbstractUnder what conditions does peacekeeping reduce one-sided violence in civil wars? This article argues that local sources of violence, particularly ethnic geography, affect peacekeeping effectiveness. Existing studies focus on the features of individual missions, yet curbing one-sided violence also depends on peacekeepers’ capacity to reduce the opportunities and incentives for violence. Moving from the idea that territorial control is a function of ethnic polarization, the article posits that peacekeepers are less effective against one-sided violence where power asymmetries are large (low polarization) because they (1) create incentives for escalation against civilians and (2) are less effective at separating/monitoring combatants. The UN mission in Sierra Leone from 1997 to 2001 is examined to show that UN troops reduce one-sided violence, but their effectiveness decreases as power asymmetries grow.

Closing the Mental Health Treatment Gap through the Collaboration of Traditional and Western Medicine in Liberia.

Liberians have experienced significant psychological trauma following fourteen years of violent civil war and the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic, but there are only two psychiatrists for the entire population. However, many traditional healers commonly treat mental health-related illnesses throughout the country. This paper examines the potential for collaboration between traditional and Western medicine to close the mental health treatment gap in Liberia. We conducted 35 semi-structured qualitative interviews with Liberian traditional healers and utilizers of traditional medicine asking questions about common health problems, treatments, beliefs, and personal preferences. Participants discussed cultural attitudes, beliefs, and structural factors that may influence collaboration between traditional and Western medicine. Healers expressed willingness to collaborate in order to strengthen their skills, though realized Western physicians were hesitant to collaborate. Additionally, Liberians believed in both medical traditions, though preferred Western medicine. Finally, structural factors such as geographic distance and financial barriers made traditional medicine more accessible than Western medicine. Traditional healers and utilizers support collaboration as evidenced by their perceptions of cultural attitudes, beliefs, and structural factors within the Liberian context. With Liberia's overwhelming mental illness burden, collaboration between traditional healers and Western medicine physicians offers a solution to the treatment gap in Liberian mental health care.

The local geography of transnational terrorism

Why are some locations more attractive targets for transnational terrorism than others? Remarkably little is known about the local-level conditions and attributes that determine precisely where transnational terror attacks occur within targeted countries. To date, quantitative terrorism research identifies country- or region-level correlates of terrorism, neglecting possible local factors. In this study, we posit five local-level factors that increase the likelihood of a terror attack: security of a target, accessibility, symbolism, material harm, and exclusion. Using a variety of estimation strategies, including multilevel, negative binomial, and propensity score matching models, we regress new sub-national geographically coded transnational terrorism data on various sub-national measures that might theoretically increase the likelihood of a terror attack. The results demonstrate that although country- and region-level factors matter, numerous local-level conditions, including where civil violence occurs, sub-national economic activity, and proximity to capitals and urban areas, are equally, if not more, important. The results help to substantiate the analytical benefits of adopting the sub-national level of analysis in the study of transnational terrorism.

Ambidexterity strategies in illegitimate institutional contexts: the role of informal institutions

Propósitoel propósito de este trabajo es analizar las estrategias de las empresas y los empleados en contextos institucionales ilegítimos en los que los grupos armados afectan a las empresas y la sociedad civil mediante la implementación de actividades al margen de la ley. El objetivo es reconocer a los empleados como actores clave y efectivos en la implementación de estrategias de ambidestreza organizacional y de gestión de recursos humanos (HRM). Sabemos poco sobre las políticas, estrategias, prácticas y comportamientos de los empleados para cumplir con los estándares mundiales, sus responsabilidades y funciones en el cargo y al mismo tiempo sobrevivir en entornos caracterizados por un alto grado de delincuencia y violencia hacia la población civil.Diseño/metodología/enfoqueeste documento presenta un estudio exploratorio bajo una perspectiva cualitativo basado en 65 entrevistas semiestructuradas y conversacionales con empleados en Colombia y México durante un período de cuatro años.Hallazgosnuestros hallazgos indican que grupos armados al margen de la ley han obligado a organizaciones, departamentos de recursos humanos y gerentes de primera línea a explotar estratégicamente medidas de seguridad inspiradas en instituciones informales para proteger activos de la empresa mientras implementan estrategias exploratorias innovadoras para mejorar las condiciones de trabajo de los empleados, sobrellevar y sobrevivir en entornos de riesgo e inseguros y, a la par, seguir siendo competitivos en el plano internacional.Originalidad/valornuestros hallazgos sugieren que la organización, la gestión de recursos humanos y la ambidestreza de los empleados son una ventaja organizativa en contextos institucionales ilegítimos. Nuestro estudio tiene como objetivo contribuir a la literatura que vincula la ambidestreza y la teoría institucional destacando las instituciones informales para examinar las relaciones en entornos inseguros.Palabras claveInstituciones informales, Instituciones ilegítimas, Ambidestreza, Grupos armados no gubernamentales, Colombia, MéxicoTipo de artigoTrabalho de investigação

A Two-Stage Approach to Civil Conflict: Contested Incompatibilities and Armed Violence

AbstractWe present a two-stage approach to civil conflict analysis. Unlike conventional approaches that focus only on armed conflict and treat all other cases as “at peace,” we first distinguish cases with and without contested incompatibilities (Stage 1) and then whether or not contested incompatibilities escalate to armed conflict (Stage 2). This allows us to analyze factors that relate to conflict origination (onset of incompatibilities) and factors that predict conflict militarization (onset of armed violence). Using new data on incompatibilities and armed conflict, we replicate and extend three prior studies of violent civil conflict, reformulated as a two-stage process, considering different estimation procedures and potential selection problems. We find that the group-based horizontal political inequalities highlighted in research on violent civil conflict clearly relate to conflict origination but have no clear association with militarization, whereas other features emphasized as shaping the risk of civil war, such as refugee flows and soft state power, predict militarization but not incompatibilities. A two-stage approach to conflict analysis can help advance theories of civil conflict, assess alternative mechanisms through which explanatory variables are thought to influence conflict, and guide new data-collection efforts.

The logic of ethnic and religious conflict in Africa

In this book McCauley presents an overview of a comprehensive study on violent communal and civil conflicts across Africa. The study sought to illuminate the causes underlying the puzzling observation in ethnically diverse African countries – including Ivory Coast, Sudan and Nigeria – that violent conflict emerges along ethnic lines and then transforms into religious conflicts. The book broadens our understanding of African identity politics, showing us why in instances of violent conflict, parties remain the same, but the cause of the conflict transforms (ethnic to religious). In addition, the book explains why even though ethnic and religious identities in Africa are well-established, they are not always the cause the persistence of conflict. The author posits that Africans have multiple identities (ethnic and religious), and in the case of civil and communal conflict, political elites can manipulate those in conflict to exploit religious or ethnic tension, as necessary to fuel ongoing violence. The author explains that ethnic identity in Africa is associated with a homeland and local material well-being, whereas religious identities are associated with moral policies. In accordance with the research process, the book is divided into two main sections. In the first section, the author demonstrates both the results of qualitative field study conducted in Ivory Coast and Ghana, and findings obtained from the Afrobarometer Public Opinion Survey (measures identity attachment and policy preferences) administered to some 20,000 individuals. These data are then used to develop the hypothesis that ethnic and religious identities are separate concepts that evoke fundamentally different preferences in individuals that the political elite can exploit. In the book religious identity preferences in Africa are described as ‘rule-based identities’ characterized by religious rules that are subject to interpretation and change. In contrast, ethnic identity preferences are described as ‘land-based identities’ that emphasize a common ancestry, shared norms, and homeland.

Long-term exposure to malaria and violence in Africa*

Abstract This paper explores the existence of a link between the long-term exposure to malaria and the frequency of civil conflicts in Africa. Using geographically disaggregated data at the level of grid cells the analysis provides empirical evidence for a hump-shaped relationship between the long-run stability and force of malaria transmission and the incidence of civil violence. In line with epidemiological predictions about the acquired immunity to malaria, cells that are characterized by intermediate malaria exposure exhibit higher conflict incidence than cells with very low or very high malaria exposure. We explore the role of the expansion of anti-malaria policies after 2005 in the context of the Roll Back Malaria programme. The results provide suggestive evidence that anti-malaria interventions reduced the incidence of civil violence, but only in areas where adults lack acquired immunity to malaria.

English

This paper concerns itself with establishing the nexus between identity conflict and its impacts on socio-economic and political relations in the West African context. The effort is motivated by the observable incidences of incessant violent conflicts and wars, all fought on the basis of ethnic and religious fault lines that threaten the stability and cohesion of the sub region in its evolution towards becoming developed regional economic community. Because of the broad nature of the study area, the paper has carefully selected Nigeria and Cote d’ Ivoire as case studies. The choice is informed by the realization that these countries share a lot of similarities especially in the area of their diversities and poor management of this otherwise important agent of social mobilization and national development. The paper has argued that while identity is a major cause of violent conflicts and civil wars often leading to state failure, the same identity, if properly managed-through equitable distribution of welfare resources through the institution of democratic practices, states within the region can overcome their economic and political challenges as they advance in the 21st Century and beyond. The data used in the study were collected from diverse sources, including documentary sources (desk review) and government reports. Data collection from documentary sources involved the evaluation of relevant literature on themes bordering on West African political and socio-cultural systems (identity question) - ethnicity, regionalism and religion. In addition, secession literature was also relied on to furnish the paper with relevant details on the subject which is a major theme of our discourse. Key words: Ethnicity, religion, secession, democracy, political conflict.

Predicting Unauthorized Salvadoran Migrants’ First Migration to the United States between 1965 and 2007

Although Salvadoran emigration to the United States is one of the most important migratory flows emanating from Latin America, there is insufficient information about the predictors of first unauthorized migration from El Salvador to the United States. In this study, we use data from the Latin American Migration Project–El Salvador (LAMP-ELS4) to perform an event history analysis to discern the factors that influenced the likelihood that a Salvadoran household head would take a first unauthorized trip to the United States between 1965 and 2007. We take into account a series of demographic, social capital, human capital, and physical capital characteristics of the Salvadoran household head; demographic and social context variables in the place of origin; as well as economic and border security factors at the place of destination.Our findings suggest that an increase in the Salvadoran civil violence index and a personal economic crisis increased the likelihood of first-time unauthorized migration. Salvadorans who were less likely to take a first unauthorized trip were business owners, those employed in skilled occupations, and persons with more years of experience in the labor force. Contextual variables in the United States, such as a high unemployment rate and an increase in the Border Patrol budget, deterred the decision to take a first unauthorized trip. Finally, social capital had no effect on the decision to migrate; this means that for unauthorized Salvadoran migrants, having contacts in the United States is not the main driver to start a migration journey to the United States.We suggest as policy recommendations that the United States should award Salvadorans more work-related visas or asylum protection. For those Salvadorans whose Temporary Protected Status (TPS) has ended, the United States should allow them to apply for permanent residency. The decision not to continue to extend TPS to Salvadorans will only increase the number of unauthorized immigrants in the United States. The United States needs to revise its current immigration policies, which make it a very difficult and/or extremely lengthy process for Salvadorans and other immigrants to regularize their current immigration status in the United States. Furthermore, because of our research findings, we recommend that the Salvadoran government — to discourage out-migration — invest in high-skilled job training and also offer training and credit opportunities to its population to encourage business ventures.

Between the Cracks: Actor Fragmentation and Local Conflict Systems in the Libyan Civil War

After nearly four years of civil war, Libya continues to be described as an ‘ungoverned space’ where the collapse of state institutions reignited tribal, political, religious and ideological tensions. These accounts, however, obscure Libya’s complex subnational governance, and the role of non-state armed groups in shaping the emerging political orders. By contrast, we contend that distinct subnational political orders have emerged in Libya since 2014 in which actors engage in state-making practices driven by local interests. Using empirical evidence to explore the activity of non-state armed groups during the Libyan civil conflict, we highlight that the local conflict environments in eastern, western and southern Libya provide specific incentives that shape the process of armed group splintering and patterns of violence. The findings demonstrate that claims to authority and notions of statehood extend far beyond the state whereby governance relations are negotiated between state and non-state actors. Conflict patterns, (in)stability and the prevailing political order are therefore conditional on the nature of the dominant actor, their strategies and modes of violence within their areas of influence. Through this analysis, the paper provides a more granular understanding of the local political dynamics that drive violence in Libya and civil wars more generally.

Correction: Predicting Unauthorized Salvadoran Migrants’ First Migration to the United States between 1965 and 2007

Although Salvadoran emigration to the United States is one of the most important migratory flows emanating from Latin America, there is insufficient information about the predictors of first unauthorized migration from El Salvador to the United States. In this study, we use data from the Latin American Migration Project–El Salvador (LAMP-ELS4) to perform an event history analysis to discern the factors that influenced the likelihood that a Salvadoran household head would take a first unauthorized trip to the United States between 1965 and 2007. We take into account a series of demographic, social capital, human capital, and physical capital characteristics of the Salvadoran household head; demographic and social context variables in the place of origin; as well as economic and border security factors at the place of destination. Our findings suggest that an increase in the Salvadoran civil violence index and a personal economic crisis increased the likelihood of first-time unauthorized migration. Salvadorans who were less likely to take a first unauthorized trip were business owners, those employed in skilled occupations, and persons with more years of experience in the labor force. Contextual variables in the United States, such as a high unemployment rate and an increase in the Border Patrol budget, deterred the decision to take a first unauthorized trip. Finally, social capital had no effect on the decision to migrate; this means that for unauthorized Salvadoran migrants, having contacts in the United States is not the main driver to start a migration journey to the United States. We suggest as policy recommendations that the United States should award Salvadorans more work-related visas or asylum protection. For those Salvadorans whose Temporary Protected Status (TPS) has ended, the United States should allow them to apply for permanent residency. The decision not to continue to extend TPS to Salvadorans will only increase the number of unauthorized immigrants in the United States. The United States needs to revise its current immigration policies, which make it a very difficult and/or extremely lengthy process for Salvadorans and other immigrants to regularize their current immigration status in the United States. Furthermore, because of our research findings, we recommend that the Salvadoran government — to discourage out-migration — invest in high-skilled job training and also offer training and credit opportunities to its population to encourage business ventures.

Arms Trade As Instrument Of Insecurity In Nigeria

Nigeria in recent years has witnessed continued escalation of acts of insecurity. Insurgency, civil violence, kidnapping, militancy, ethnic/religious clashes, allegedly to have been caused by injustice, intolerance, poverty, unemployment, extremism, corruption, ill education and poor governance, have been on the increase in the country. This is not unconnected with the prevalence issue of illegal arms trade and proliferation of small arms and light weapons in the country. Arms are regarded as small weapons that are harmful and dangerous to human existence, they include revolvers, pistol, riffles, sub-machine guns, mounted grenade launchers, while the light weapon refers to heavy machine guns, hand held under-barred portable anti-aircraft missile system. It is on this premise that this study examines the relationship between the spate of insecurity in Nigeria and arms trade. In doing this, the authors used primary and secondary sources of data using chi-square techniques to analyze the data. A total of 300 questionnaires were produced, distributed, retrieved and analyzed. The findings revealed, among other things, that terrorism, conflicts and violence have posed serious threat to national development. As such, it was recommended that government should take a decisive action to prosecute any person found in possession of any arms, irrespective of political affiliation.