Zones Of City Research Articles

Nesting density and nest site selection of the Magpie Pica pica in Kaliningrad, south-east of the Baltic Sea area

Over the past decades, the Magpie, which has ecological and behavioral flexibility, has colonized many cities. In this study, we examine the effect of urban disturbance on nesting density of the Magpie and nest height in a city in the south-eastern Baltic region. The studies were carried out in Kaliningrad (54°43’N, 20°30’E) during the leafless period in 2018–2021 in green residential areas with a predominance of 5-storey buildings (“residential area”) and low-rise individual housing areas (“individual houses”). In the residential area, nest counts were carried out separately in the central part of the city and outside the city center. Based on literature data on urban populations of the Magpie in other cities, we predict that: (1) in the central part of the city there will be a higher nesting density of magpies and (2) in the central part of the city, nests will be located higher than outside the central part of the city. The results obtained did not confirm these assumptions. The average nesting density in residential areas in the city center and outside the city center was virtually the same. And, in addition, in the residential area in the city center, nests were on average located lower than in the residential area outside the central part of the city, but the differences were not statistically significant and the median values of these city zones coincide. The work also provides data on the placement of nests on various types of trees and shrubs. The Hooded crow, being the main predator and competitor of the Magpie, shares the same habitats in Kaliningrad. This coexistence could potentially slow down the increase in Magpie nesting density, especially in the residential area of the city centre, where the nesting density of the Hooded crow is significantly higher than outside the city centre.

The effect of an interactive mobile health intervention to improve community-based essential neonatal care practices among postpartum women in northeast Ethiopia: a cluster randomized controlled trial.

Despite global declines in child mortality rates, Africa's reduction is lagging behind other regions. Neonatal survival remains a key priority in the sustainable development agenda. Promoting neonatal care practices at the individual and community levels is essential, and technology-based interventions can effectively reach potential future mothers. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of an interactive mobile health intervention on improving community-based essential neonatal care practices among postpartum women in northeast Ethiopia. This study was conducted in Dessie and Kombolcha city zones, in northeast Ethiopia. A cluster randomized controlled trial was implemented among 743 participants (376 intervention and 367 control) from 2 January to 15 June 2023. Pregnant women at 30-weeks' gestation in selected clusters were enrolled and followed up to 45days after childbirth. Data were collected using Open Data Kit and analysed with Stata version 17. Structural equation modelling through confirmatory factor analysis was employed. Model fitness was evaluated using the χ2:degree of freedom ratio, root mean square error of approximation and standardized root mean square residual, indicating a good model fit. Statistical significance was declared at a level <0.05 with a 95% confidence interval. The study revealed high narrow birth-to-pregnancy intervals of <24 months in both groups (48.5% control, 49.5% intervention). Awareness of neonatal care increased markedly in the intervention group, increasing from 62.0% to 85.9%, compared with an increase from 57.8% to 67.6% in the control group. Disagreement regarding immediate newborn bathing was more prevalent in the intervention group (73.9%) than in the control group (58.9%). Initiating breastfeeding within 1h after birth was higher in the intervention group (85.4%) compared with the control group (74.4%). Postnatal visits to health facilities were more frequent in the intervention group (79.6%) than in the control group (54.8%). Mobile health intervention (β=0.393, p=0.007) and knowledge of neonatal care (β=0.347, p=0.012) had a significant positive effect on neonatal care practices. There were no significant indirect pathways between the variables analysed. Mobile health intervention and knowledge of neonatal care remain significant predictors with a total effect of β=0.382, p=0.009 and β=0.347, p=0.012, respectively, in enhancing neonatal care practices. This study underscores the significant role of mobile health interventions and maternal knowledge in enhancing neonatal care practices. These findings should inform the design and implementation of maternal and child health programs, emphasizing the integration of technology and education to improve neonatal outcomes in resource-limited settings. Protocol Registration and Results System Clinical Trial Registry, www.ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05666050. Registered on 23 December 2022.

Multi-level Accessibility Analysis of Hyderabad City Using GIS-based Network Evaluation

Transportation accessibility plays a pivotal role in transport geography, serving as a critical indicator of mobility for both people and goods. High levels of accessibility reflect a well-developed urban environment with fewer transportation challenges. In this study, Geographic Information Systems (GISs) are employed to conduct a comprehensive network analysis of accessibility across various zones in Hyderabad city, Telangana, India. Using a city-wide methodology for evaluating urban service availability and distance-based accessibility, the study incorporates a weighted scoring model. This model assigns varying weights to different urban services based on their relative importance, enabling a nuanced accessibility analysis. The study assesses accessibility at three distinct spatial scales: Macro-level Cluster Zones, Meso-level Strategic Zones, and Micro-level Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs). By analyzing accessibility at these scales, the study offers a detailed and layered understanding of how different locations in Hyderabad perform in terms of access to essential services and opportunities. The results provide valuable insights for urban planners and decision-makers, helping them identify areas where accessibility can be improved, thus supporting more equitable and efficient urban development. Keywords: Weighted scoring model, Macro-level cluster zones, Meso-level strategic zones, Micro-level traffic analysis zones (TAZs), Accessibility analysis.

City and factory – the nature of urban planning contradictions

The article deals with the problems of interaction between two functional zones: residential and industrial. It is suggested that there are urban planning contradictions that do not allow the industrial zone to be fully integrated into urban space. Among these, the most significant contradictions are the scale, formation, and planning organization. The study of these contradictions has allowed us to conclude that industrial zones are fundamentally irreducible to residential developments, which leads us to reconsider the placing of industrial zones in cities at the current stage of development.

Urban traffic accidents in Isfahan city: a study of prehospital response time intervals

IntroductionTraffic accidents are a major public health concern worldwide, resulting in significant injuries, fatalities, and economic costs. In urban zones, traffic accident dynamics can vary significantly due to population density, infrastructure, and emergency response capabilities. The present study was conducted to determine the time intervals of prehospital emergencies in traffic accidents by separating the 15 zones of Isfahan city, Iran.MethodsThis descriptive study was conducted in 2023. The sampling approach involved a census that included all prehospital emergency missions that occurred in the second half of 2022. A total of 7613 missions were examined. To collect the data, a checklist covering demographic characteristics and mission-specific features was utilized. The information was recorded in an Excel spreadsheet and described via the prehospital emergency information system.ResultsAfter analyzing 7,613 urban missions, it was determined that Zone 12 had the highest number of prehospital emergency missions in all three time periods: morning, afternoon, and evening. Therefore, all the times (reaction time, response time, scene time, transfer time, and hospitalization time) were in accordance with prehospital emergency time standards in Iran.ConclusionOn the basis of the findings of this study, it is crucial to identify zones with greater population movement, highways, or high traffic volume and establish bases in suitable locations whenever feasible. Additionally, in zones with a greater number of missions, there should be an appropriate number of ambulances in proportion to the mission volume.

Toward a mathematical approach of spatial permeability (Kyrillos's Model)

Spatial permeability is a distinctive characteristic of urban form. However, a definitive method for measuring it remains a challenge. This study aims to investigate factors affecting permeability within urban systems, with a focus on incorporating a theoretical framework to support a mathematical approach. Moreover, a method for testing reliability and consistency is suggested. The methodology comprised theoretical and empirical sections. The theoretical part explores the concept of permeability and the core variables that affect permeability in cities. The experimental section involved analyzing 52 zones in Erbil City, extracting their physical and spatial attributes to be utilized as input data for the model. Ultimately, it is evident that the permeability of the built environment is defined by factors such as depth, choice, block size, and spatial maneuverability. The proposed model shows how permeability stands out from other spatial indicators, offering important initial insights into the expanding field of urban form analysis.

First field and laboratory trial of VectorBac® WG around the airport zone of the capital city of Libreville, Gabon

Context/Purpose: The urban ecosystem of Akanda behind the airport of the capital city of Libreville in Gabon, harbors diverse and dense mosquito larval habitats and hotspots for malaria and arboviruses transmission. To effectively conduct vector control, it is imperative to adopt an integrated approach by adding biolarvicides to the toolbox. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of a biolarvicide under laboratory and field conditions. Methods: In Gabon, this current pilot and preliminary study sought to test the efficacy of the biolarvicide VectorBac® Water dispersable Granule (WG) (VBG) during the rainy season period (March to May 2024) under field and laboratory conditions following the 2005 World Health Organisation protocol. Results: For the bioassay of VBG, in the laboratory, the required dose to kill 88% and 100% of the larvae in rearing cups was 0.001 g/mL and 0.01 g/mL respectively. Under field conditions, the percentage larval density reduction irrespective of the microhabitat type ranged from 90 to 100% and the mosquito larval density reduction between test and control groups in the field differed statistically (X2=34; p = 0.026). Conclusion: The larvae from Akanda tested under field and laboratory conditions were very sensitive to the standard dose recommended by the manufacturer after 24 hrs post-treatment with VBG. This pilot study provides baseline information that is required to conduct a longitudinal study to evaluate the residual effect of VBG in different ecological settings in Gabon.

Analysis of Factors Driving the Acceptability of a Low Emission Zone

Background In many cities worldwide, a Low Emission Zone has been introduced with the aim to improve livability of urban areas and foster sustainable mobility habits. However, a limited or absent public support has proven to hinder the implementation of such intervention or negatively impact its effectiveness. Objective This paper aims to understand factors prompting and hindering acceptability of a Low Emission Zone in a medium-sized city. Methods The study area was the city of Padova (Italy), where a potential future shift from the current limited traffic zone toward a Low Emission Zone was investigated. A mobility questionnaire administered to stakeholders of the intervention area. Data collected were used as input of an integrated set of statistical models. A factor analysis was implemented to highlight the underlying structure of respondents’ opinion about the Low Emission Zone. A cluster analysis was used to define stakeholders' profiles, and an ordinal logit model was developed to identify factors affecting the support of the new regulation. Results Results pointed out profiles of both supporters and opposers to the measure. To effectively improve public support, potential benefits of the current Limited Traffic Zone and how the Low Emission Zone aims to enhance them could be highlighted. As expected, the highest opposition could stem from car users, who should be targeted with specific strategies to increase their acceptability level. Conclusions The analysis highlighted how policy makers and local authorities can foster the widest support of the new Low Emission Zone and thus broadening its potential benefits.

Sustainable urbanism and infrastructural development nexus in Akure, Nigeria

This paper examines how infrastructural facilities provision has affected the urban development of Akure, Nigeria. The study adopts the survey research design (SRD) method to investigate the nexus with the aid of a structured questionnaire on sampled households, as well as personal interviews, observations and photos to narrate the existing situation. The average number of households in Akure was estimated at 95,232, of which 1 per cent (representing 952 households) were systematically sampled. Findings reveal unguided expansion in the growth of the city and uneven distribution of facilities across the city zones. The irregular population influx and increased urban sprawl experienced in the city has been attributed to the massive provision of infrastructural facilities in the recent past at the expense of rural contiguous settlements. Meanwhile, this uneven distribution of infrastructural facilities has significantly affected their functionality, as well as security, housing and transport systems within the city. To mitigate this, the study suggests a corresponding increase in the provision of facilities in the city and in the hinterlands to curb the incessant rural influx into the city. Also, as the city expands, the facilities need to be increased and maintained for maximum utilisation and functionality.

Groundwater Dynamics in the Middle Brahmaputra River Basin: A Case Study of Shallow Aquifers in Inner Guwahati City, Assam, India

This study investigated the hydrogeological characteristics and groundwater dynamics in the shallow aquifer zones of inner Guwahati city, Assam, India. Sixteen dug wells spread across the city, specifically used for domestic purposes, were selected for this study. Additionally, ten wells were selected for trend analysis. The borehole lithology reveals predominant compositions of clay, sand, and granules, with thin clay cappings indicating significant groundwater potential. Depth-to-water level analysis revealed varying water levels across the study area, with shallow levels in the northern and western regions and gradual deepening toward the eastern and southern parts. The groundwater flow directions show nonuniform patterns and reflect the influence of topography and domestic pumping in urban residential zones. The general groundwater flow direction is toward the Brahmaputra River. Trends in groundwater level, assessed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope, suggest both falling and rising trends across different locations, indicating complex groundwater dynamics influenced by factors such as recharge, extraction, and topography. However, the long-term rainfall data indicate no significant trend over the studied period, suggesting limited natural influence on groundwater level trends. These findings may contribute to a comprehensive understanding of groundwater dynamics in the study area and are essential for sustainable water resource management and mitigation of groundwater depletion risks.

Scale effect on the relationship between urban landscape patterns and land surface temperature

Great efforts have been made to examine the linkages between land surface temperature (LST) and urban landscape patterns (ULPs), which, however, focus on a single spatial scale and linear relationships. This study aims to examine the influence range of four key ULP indicators on LST, namely the sky view factor (SVF) and three indices of built-up area, greens, and blue spaces. The analyses are conducted at the street block level in 38 big cities in China and leverage a multiscalar approach to investigate change patterns of indicators within multiple buffer zones and identify the buffer distance that yields the greatest influence. Results reveal that (1) the greatest local impacts are produced within 0 − 150 m buffer zones in most cities for all key ULP metrics; (2) the maximum impacts of most indicators in summer are greater than in other seasons; and (3) the influence magnitude of key ULP indicators increases after considering the scale effect, and the influence of SVF varies significantly across cities. Results suggest that the consideration of maximum influence ranges of ULP indicators can better explain LST spatial variations. Our findings offer evidence on the local impact of ULPs on LST and contribute to urban design in urban heat mitigation.

Rapid Urban-Scale Building Collapse Assessment Based on Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis and Earthquake Observations

Rapid damage assessment after an earthquake is crucial for allocating and prioritizing emergency actions. Building damage due to an earthquake depends on the seismic hazard and the building’s strength. While it is now possible to promptly access acceleration data as seismic input through online strong motion networks in urban areas, good models are necessary to evaluate the damage in different zones of the affected area. This study aims to present a rapid method for such an urban-scale building collapse evaluation by conducting a nonlinear dynamic analysis of modeled buildings. Based on the Nagato and Kawase model, this study estimates the yield shear strength of 3-story steel buildings, 3-story reinforced concrete buildings, and 1-story masonry buildings in Sarpol-e-Zahab City after the 2017 Mw7.3 earthquake. The damage ratio is calculated through nonlinear dynamic analyses using estimated records from the main earthquake shock in different city zones. The research found that the seismic yield shear strength of steel and reinforced concrete buildings might be weaker than that of the Iranian seismic code’s standard value. Conversely, masonry-building resistance is stronger than the guidelines assumed. The constructed numerical models can be used for the rapid building damage assessment immediately after a damaging earthquake.

Geochemical behavior of riverine magnesium isotopes in the Yarlung Tsangpo River Basin, southern Tibetan Plateau

The riverine magnesium (Mg) isotope composition is generally controlled by sources and fractionation processes. However, it remains unclear in which cases these factors are predominant at the basin scale. In this study, we investigated the major elements, trace elements, and Mg and strontium (Sr) isotope ratios in the Yarlung Tsangpo River (YTR) Basin, southern Tibetan Plateau (TP), to explore the geochemical behavior of Mg isotopes and the dominant controlling factors. Riverine Mg2+ was shown to derive primarily from the weathering of silicates and carbonates. Riverine δ26Mg, which is first influenced by the mixing of different lithological sources, was detected ranging from −1.63 ‰ to −0.52 ‰. According to the saturation indexes of common Mg-bearing secondary minerals, the basin was divided into two zones. Above Shannan City (Zone I), where river waters mostly were oversaturated with minerals, positive correlations were observed between δ26Mg and the Ca/Mg and Sr/Mg ratios. This indicated that, after mixing, secondary minerals (talc and chlorite), which tend to preferentially incorporate 24Mg, may be formed in most of waters, leading to an increase in riverine δ26Mg values. The Rayleigh and batch fractionation models were fitted with factors ranging from 0.9975 to 0.9997. Below Shannan City (Zone II), where river waters mostly were unsaturated with minerals, riverine δ26Mg was positively correlated with 87Sr/86Sr and negatively correlated with the Ca/Mg, Sr/Mg, and HCO3/Na ratios. This suggested that the riverine δ26Mg were influenced by carbonate dissolution with faster kinetic rates. Our analysis of riverine δ26Mg values in the YTR Basin may be a reference for interpreting the relationships between δ26Mg and δ7Li in river systems worldwide. In minerals-oversaturated waters, secondary mineral formation was shown to lead to isotope fractionation, resulting in a positive correlation between the two parameters, whereas in minerals-unsaturated waters, the δ26Mg and δ7Li values were negatively correlated, possibly due to the predominance of mineral dissolution.

Urban heterogeneity of the trade-offs between exposure to greenery and walking distance in children's home–school routes

Greenery fosters sustainable outdoor environments and promotes walking and healthy lifestyles. Greening children's home–school routes can be seen as an environmentally sustainable solution that enhances their daily interaction with nature. However, the uneven distribution of greenery and route networks within cities results in varied opportunities for pedestrians, including children, to experience greenery.This study evaluates the urban heterogeneity of trade-offs between exposure to greenery and route length. We focus on the shortest and greenest hypothetical home–school routes for all children in the city. For this purpose, we conducted a spatial analysis using multiple spatially explicit data sets on primary schoolchildren, pedestrian street networks, and high-resolution urban green space maps, with Łódź (Poland) as the case study city.Children who opt for the greenest hypothetical routes instead of the shortest could increase their exposure to greenery by 18%. However, maximizing exposure to greenery requires choosing routes 9.5% (46 m) longer than the shortest alternative. The trade-off between the shortest and greenest home–school routes is more pronounced for children in the urban core area compared to other city zones. This urban heterogeneity should be considered when allocating new greenery to support active transportation.

Meeting place

What is the essence and content of a modern city? Not buildings, not engineering networks and not roads. People, citizens, relationships and meetings between them are the central purpose of city life. The city is a space riddled with meetings. The news section of the current issue is devoted to meetings of architects. The anniversary of the oldest centre of theoretical architectural and town-planning thought and the Festival “Zodchestvo in Siberia” (ZVS) in Krasnoyarsk have become occasions for many heated discussions and celebratory meetings. This time the main exposition of the ZVS literally went out to meet the city – it was displayed on the museum avant-plaza above the Yenisei (11-44). The main theme of the festival – PERSONALITY – was developed in this issue of PB (45-92). Meetings can be constructive, and they can be conflictive. To prevent meetings from turning into conflicts, some flows need to be separated (e.g. pedestrian and car flows). A compulsory program of comfort growth is supposed to develop pedestrian zones in a modern city, as well as to make the embankments free from transport and industrial enterprises. To what extent is a contemporary citizen ready and eager for meetings? Has loneliness become a norm of life? Konstantin Lidin is discussing this issue in the leading article (94). The city’s public spaces can also be introverted and extroverted: Andrei Bokov introduces the concepts of INTRA and EXTRA in relation to different spaces – open and closed, which encourage people’s meetings in a different way (108). Who wins in the competition for full-fledged communication – social networks or open public spaces? This and many other questions were discussed in the PB Discussion Club dedicated to the theme of this issue: MEETING PLACE.

A study of the relation between traffic accidents and election posters

Inattention in traffic is a risk factor for the occurrence of accidents. Elements surrounding traffic could potentially be a safety risk for road users. This study investigates the relation between election posters and traffic accidents using a seasonal autoregressive-moving-average model with exogeneous variables (seasonal ARMAX) correcting for variations in meteorological conditions and general traffic volume indicated through public holidays. Danish traffic accident micro data are used to construct a time series for daily number of accidents in city zones adjusted for probable known accident causes, namely drunk driving, narcotics, drivers deemed unfit to drive, and accidents related to low visibility. Model parameters are determined from Maximum Likelihood estimation on the period from 1 January 1997 to 15 December 2009 with an indicator for general election periods. The presence of general election posters is associated with an increased risk of traffic accidents (p = 0.003), when correcting for meteorological variables and public school holidays. While a causal relation between traffic accidents and the presence of election posters cannot be concluded from the analysis, we find distraction from election posters to be the most likely explanation for the associated increase in traffic accidents. On average, the model indicates that 1.18 additional daily accidents occur for general elections in Denmark. In total, that amounts to 127 additional accidents for the investigated period of time. This study shows that such sudden changes in traffic surroundings are significantly related to increased safety risks which could lead to a better discussion of relevant traffic legislation.

Exploring the Configurational Relationships between Urban Heat Island Patterns and the Built Environment: A Case Study of Beijing

The spatial heterogeneity of land surface temperature (LST) within cities is profoundly influenced by the built environment. Although significant progress has been made in the study of the urban thermal environment, there is still a lack of research on how the pattern and structural layout of the built environment affects the thermal environment. In this study, we take the Fifth Ring Road of Beijing as an example, invert the urban LST on the basis of multisource spatial data, characterize the built environment, and use k-means cluster analysis to investigate the main influencing factors of the LST in different functional areas and building patterns within the city, as well as the spatial relationship between the built environment and the urban LST. The results show the following: (1) The urban heat island (UHI) effect occurs to varying degrees over a large part of the study area, and these UHI areas are mainly concentrated in the southwestern part of the city, forming a large contiguous area between the second and fifth ring roads. (2) Class 1 is dominated by transport blocks, Class 3 is dominated by commercial blocks, and Class 5 is dominated by green space blocks, with a clustering index of 0.38. (3) The high-density, high-height class (HH-Class 2) has a greater number of blocks distributed in a ring shape around the periphery of the second ring road. The high-density, low-height class (HL-Class 2) has a relatively small number of blocks but a relatively large area, and the largest blocks are located in the western part of the study area. (4) In the HH and HL building patterns, extreme heat scenarios often occur; from the perspective of functional areas, the probability of extreme heat in the transport block is much higher than that of other functional areas, and except for the HH scenario, the green space functional area plays a very important role in reducing the temperature. This study explores the characteristics of the built environment that influence the urban LST from the perspective of different urban functional zones in cities to provide decision support for quantitative territorial spatial planning, optimization, and management.

Developing Advanced Navigation Algorithms for Autonomous Vehicles to Enhance Safety and Efficiency in Urban Environments Using Real-Time Sensor Data and Machine Learning

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) have the ability to completely change how people get around cities. They could make transportation safer and more efficient while also reducing pollution and traffic. But their broad utilize depends on the creation of progressed direction frameworks that can dependably discover their way around complicated urban settings. An inventive way to illuminate this issue is portrayed in this think about. It employments real-time sensor information and machine learning to form and utilize cutting-edge direction strategies that work well in cities. There are five primary steps within the study process. To begin with, exhaustive information collection strategies are utilized to urge valuable sensor information from numerous places, such as GPS, LiDAR, webcams, and more. Another, progressed machine learning models are made and instructed with this information so that AVs can make smart choices and find their way around. These models are made to require into consideration things just like the environment, activity, how individuals walk, and other changing factors to form beyond any doubt they work well in complicated urban circumstances. A number of distinctive measures are utilized to judge the suggested algorithms, such as their security, adequacy, steadfastness, and capacity to alter. Re-enactment circumstances are utilized to test the strategies in a run of urban settings, from swarmed city zones to calm roads within the rural areas. When compared to conventional strategies, the comes about appear enormous picks up in following execution. The equations make it more secure and more productive to utilize them in cities. The modern strategies are too compared to current direction frameworks to appear how much way better they are at being precise, adaptable, and fast to reply. The research also finds possible problems and restrictions, like the need for real-time processing and complicated computations, and suggests ways to fix them.

Hourly PM2.5 concentration prediction for dry bulk port clusters considering spatiotemporal correlation: A novel deep learning blending ensemble model

Accurate prediction of PM2.5 concentrations in ports is crucial for authorities to combat ambient air pollution effectively and protect the health of port staff. However, in port clusters formed by multiple neighboring ports, we encountered several challenges owing to the impact of unique meteorological conditions, potential correlation between PM2.5 levels in neighboring ports, and coupling influence of background pollutants in city zones. Therefore, considering the spatiotemporal correlation among the factors influencing PM2.5 concentration variations within the harbor cluster, we developed a novel blending ensemble deep learning model. The proposed model combined the strengths of four deep learning architectures: graph convolutional networks (GCN), long short-term memory networks (LSTM), residual neural networks (ResNet), and convolutional neural networks (CNN). GCN, LSTM, and ResNet served as the base models aimed at capturing the spatial correlation of PM2.5 concentrations in neighboring ports, the potential long-term dependence of meteorological factors and PM2.5 concentrations, and the effects of urban ambient air pollutants, respectively. Following the blending ensemble technique, the prediction outcomes of three base models were used as the input data for the meta-model CNN, which employs the blending ensemble technique to produce the final prediction results. Based on actual data obtained from 18 ports in Nanjing, the proposed model was compared and analyzed for its prediction performance against six state-of-the-art models. The findings revealed that the proposed model provided more accurate predictions. It reduced mean absolute error (MAE) by 10.59 %–20.00 %, reduced root mean square error (RMSE) by 13.22 %–17.11 %, improved coefficient of determination (R2) by 10 %–35.38 %, and improved accuracy (ACC) by 3.48 %–7.08 %. Additionally, the contribution of each component to the prediction performance of the proposed model was measured using a systematic ablation study. The results demonstrated that the GCN model exerted the most substantial influence on the prediction performance of the GCN-LSTM-ResNet model, followed by the LSTM model. The influence of urban background pollutants can significantly enhance the generalizability of the complete model. Moreover, a comparison with three blended ensemble models incorporating any two base models demonstrated that the GCN-LSTM-ResNet model exhibited superior prediction performance and was particularly excellent in predicting the occurrence of high-concentration events. Specifically, the GCN-LSTM-ResNet model improved MAE and RMSE by at least 12.3% and 9.2%, respectively, but reduced R2 and ACC by 26.1% and 6.8%, respectively. The proposed model provided reliable PM2.5 concentration prediction outcomes and decision support for air quality management strategies in dry bulk port clusters.

Rural development: the basis for the realization of agrarian policy

Among the problems currently existing in the regions of Kazakhstan is the increasing outflow of able-bodied population from rural areas and localization in the suburban zone of cities. The aim- is to identify the causes of deterioration of the demographic situation in rural settlements (RS) and to develop recommendations for stabilization of the rural economy in the West Kazakhstan region. Methods - retrospective when obtaining data for past periods of time, comparative analysis - to compare the information obtained, on the basis of economic and statistical method the selection and analysis of statistical indicators of the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan, used information from scientific institutions, official sources, defined absolute and relative parameters, average values. Results - it is shown that the main factors of degradation of most rural areas of Western Kazakhstan are the lack of a clear vision of the role and place of rural residents and rural areas in the socio-economic development of the republic, weakening of state regulation in the sectors of agriculture. Conclusions - the prospects for building the capacity of rural areas of the West Kazakhstan region is associated with a number of interrelated problems that need to be solved as soon as possible, primarily modernization of social and technical infrastructure, increasing the motivation of the economically active part of the rural population in mastering new knowledge and technologies, which will increase labor income and effective demand of rural residents for goods and services. The study indicates that in rural areas the situation with investment and expansion of small business activities is ambiguous. It is necessary to emphasize the small business entities in the sphere of agrarian production and the formation of social facilities - housing, catering enterprises, social and cultural facilities, education, pre-school education, sports and recreational facilities. This author's position provides for the possibility of forming greater investment attractiveness and attracting extra-budgetary sources of financing. Elimination of environmental barriers will require improvement of the current regulatory and legal framework.