Circulation Indices Research Articles

The Application of a Decision Tree and Stochastic Forest Model in Summer Precipitation Prediction in Chongqing

Meteorological disasters are the result of the interaction of multiple factors and multiple systems. In order to improve the accuracy of prediction, it is necessary not only to consider the characteristics and cycles of each subsystem, but also to study the interaction of all systems. Based on the summer precipitation data and 130 circulation indexes of 34 national meteorological observation stations in Chongqing from 1961 to 2010, the prediction model of Chongqing summer precipitation was established based on the decision tree and the stochastic forest algorithm based on machine learning, and the prediction test of 2011–2018 was carried out independently by the model. Compared with the results of the single-factor prediction model, the trend consistency rate increased by 37.5% and 12.5% respectively. In addition, when using the random forest model to predict summer precipitation in Chongqing from 2014 to 2018, the 5-year average Ps, Cc and PC scores were 84.6, 0.27 and 67.1, respectively, which were significantly improved compared with 72.4, −0.12 and 52.9 of the current climate forecasting methods, and the forecast quality of the random forest was relatively stable. The multi-system collaborative impact model based on decision tree and random forest algorithm can achieve high accuracy and stability. Thus, this method can not only be an effective means for the diagnosis and prediction of climate causes, but also has a good theoretical and practical value for the prediction of extreme disasters.

ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY REGIME IN THE REPUBLIC OF BASHKORTOSTAN IN RECENT PERIOD

The article presents an analysis of the climatic characteristics of the regimes of air temperature and precipitation in the Republic of Bashkortostan in the period 1966-2015. For this period, the basic climatic characteristics are calculated. To identify changes in the analyzed values, trend analysis was used. Cases of air temperature anomalies and precipitation totals are examined in detail according to the criteria of intensity and duration of their existence for different time periods. Assessment of the influence of circulation factors on the indicators of the temperature-humidity regime of the region was carried out using a correlation analysis between them and the atmospheric circulation indexes - North Atlantic, Arctic, Scandinavian, Atlantic multi-decade oscillations.

Monthly precipitation assessments in association with atmospheric circulation indices by using tree-based models

The Urmia Lake basin is one of the most important basins in Iran, facing many problems due to poor water management and rainfall reduction. Under current circumstances, it becomes critical to have an advanced understanding of rainfall patterns in the basin, setting the motivation of this study. In this research, the mean monthly meteorological data of six synoptic stations of Urmia Lake basin were used (including relative humidity, temperature, minimum–maximum temperature and pressure) and large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (Southern Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation, Western Mediterranean Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation-Gibraltar/Israel and Mediterranean Oscillation-Algiers/Cairo) and sea surface temperatures of the Mediterranean, Black, Caspian, Red seas and Persian Gulf in the period 1988–2016. Various combinations of these variables used as input to the M5 tree and random forest models were selected by Relief algorithm for each month in three scenarios including atmospheric circulation indices, meteorological variables and combination of both. After the implementation of two models with three different scenarios, the evaluation criteria including correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute error and root-mean-square error were calculated and the Taylor diagram for each model was plotted. Our results showed that the M5 tree model performed superior in January, February, March, April, June, September, November and December, while the random forest model did in the remaining months. In addition, the indications of this study showed that the combination of atmospheric circulation indices and meteorological variables used as input to the models mostly constituted improved results.

Trends in cooling and heating degree-days overtimes in Bangladesh? An investigation of the possible causes of changes

An understanding of the trend in cooling and heating degree-days acts as a driving force for building energy demand under climate change conditions. However, little is known about the spatiotemporal trend patterns in cooling and heating degree-days in recent times and their possible causes in Bangladesh. Therefore, we explored the trend and variability of cooling degree-days (CDD) and heating degree-days (HDD) and their possible reasons for variation for the study period 1980–2017 based on daily temperatures datasets from 27 sites in Bangladesh. The results show that the highest annual mean CDD and HDD were identified in the southwestern and central climatic regions of Bangladesh. The CDD trend has significantly increased in Bangladesh, and the HDD trend has increased but non-significance. The outcomes of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and R/S analysis exhibit that CDD and HDD will continue their contemporary trend direction in the future. Land–Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) had a significant positive influence on CDD; however, there was no significant correlation between HDD and atmospheric circulation indices. The importance analysis from the random forest (RF) model showed that the LOTI is the highest contributing variable for CDD and East Asian Summer Monsoon Index (EASMI) is the largest influential variable for HDD affecting climate variability in Bangladesh. ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis datasets depict that higher summer geopotential height, an anticyclonic center, enhanced relative humidity, declined total and high cloud covers, decreasing surface solar radiation, and high skin temperature fluxes might have influenced on CDD and HDD variations in Bangladesh.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in Beijing, China during the Wet Seasons

To comprehensively evaluate the changes in precipitation patterns in the context of global climate change and urbanization, the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation during the wet seasons of 1981–2017 in Beijing was analyzed in this study using up-to-date daily and hourly precipitation data from observation stations. It was concluded that the average annual precipitation in wet seasons showed a downward trend, while the simple daily intensity index (SDII) showed an upward trend. Precipitation in the central urban area of Beijing showed obvious changes from 1981 to 2017; the average annual precipitation in the central urban area was almost as great as that in Miyun country after 2010, which was the storm center for the past three decades. The average annual maximum 3-h and 6-h precipitation in the 2010s was higher than the past three decades, especially in urban and suburban areas. In addition, the atmospheric circulation index, urbanization impact, and topography were all found to be important factors that affect the pattern of precipitation in Beijing.

Physiological Parameters of the Performance of Ballistic Punch Movements in Athletes

The motor-coordination features of punch actions in athletes receive special attention in the literature. However, the association between punch force actions and the mechanisms of motor coordination and balance is disregarded in the majority of studies, and a hierarchic movement organization adequate to the motor task consequently escapes attention. Vegetative support of various types of punches is poorly understood. Vertical stability, stabilographic parameters, muscle electrical activity of the upper limbs and trunk, and vegetative vascular support of various types of punch movements were studied using sports equipment in boxers of various skill levels. The results were used to systematize the physiological characteristics of punch movement performance in boxers. A higher level of qualification was associated with an increase in balance retention time in the complicated Romberg position. For the ballistic type of punch, the sagittal linear velocity of punch increased with the increasing qualification level and a pronounced frontal velocity component became detectable at the level of Candidate Master of S6ports (CMS). The changes were accompanied by an increase in the amplitude of bioelectric activity of muscles in the upper and lower limbs; signs of muscle disorganization were replaced by synchronization of bioelectric activity. Changes in motor pattern were accompanied by a nonlinear reorganization of the vegetative support system, and blood supply and blood return gradually increased in the lower and upper limbs. Blood circulation indices became more economic and optimal for ballistic technology. Based on the results, the development of sports mastery in boxing was considered as the development of a single functional system in which the ability to maintain balance and the punch velocity parameters are associated with an adaptive reorganization of contractile muscle activity in the lower and upper limbs and vascular maintenance of body activity. The findings help to better understand the physiological mechanisms underlying the formation of punch movement skills in combat sports and can provide a theoretical basis for improving the training process.

Multiscale variability of streamflow in the Three Rivers Headwater Region, China, and links to large-scale atmospheric circulation indices

Abstract Exploring the relations between streamflow and large-scale atmospheric circulation systems can assist in identifying potentially useful indicators for the modeling of hydrological processes. With the help of ensemble empirical mode decomposition and the wavelet analysis method, this research explored streamflow variations and its links to large-scale atmospheric circulation indices during 1960–2012 in the Three Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR). A steady increasing trend was detected in the streamflow of the source region of Yangtze River (SYR), and a steady decreasing trend was detected in the streamflow of the source region of Lancang River (SLR). The streamflow of the source region of Yellow River (SYeR) had an increasing trend in the early years of the study period and subsequently exhibited a decreasing trend. The Tibetan Plateau monsoon (TPM), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and South Asia monsoon (SAM) are the key factors influencing streamflow changes in the SYR, SYeR, and SLR, respectively. At interannual time-scale variation with the period of about 3–9 years, an antiphase relationship exists between SYR streamflow and TPM indices, while in-phase relationships are detected between SYeR (SLR) streamflow and AO (SAM) indices.

ВЛИЯНИЕ НИЗКИХ ШИРОТ НА КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИЕ УСЛОВИЯ НА ВОДОСБОРАХ ГЛАВНЫХ СИБИРСКИХ РЕК

It was previously shown that atmospheric and oceanic transports of heat and moisture play an important role in the development of Arctic warming, and sea surface temperature anomalies at low latitudes have a significant effect on the formation of these transports. Atmospheric circulation, transferring heat, moisture and precipitation, also affects the climatic conditions in the catchment areas of 3 main Siberian rivers Ob, Yenisei and Lena with runoff that it about half of the average annual inflow of river waters into the Arctic Ocean. According to the reanalyses and data arrays for the period 1979-2019 air temperature and precipitation in the catchment areas of Ob, Lena and Yenisei are rising. The greatest increase in precipitation was noted in the spring months. The spring months (March and April) also have a maximum positive air temperature trend. To assess the effect of low latitudes on changes in climatic conditions in the catchment areas reanalysis data ERA5, HadISST, precipitation gridded data of the GPCC project were used. The indexes of zonal, meridional and general circulation were calculated based on the mean monthly surface air temperature at the nodes of the geographic grid in the Northern Hemisphere. To determine the connections between the indexes and climatic parameters the methods of multivariate cross-correlation analysis were used. It was defined that zonal atmospheric transports have a significant impact on climatic conditions most of all in the cold part of the year, especially in November and March. In summer amplification of zonal circulation is accompanied by a decrease in air temperature in the catchment areas, but meridional transports enhance the air temperature. The greatest influence of meridional transport was observed in spring and summer. The climatic change in low latitudes has the greatest impact in autumn on meridional transport in spring and on zonal transport in the cold part of the year, especially in March, with time lag of 2 years. The influence of low latitudes on the climatic conditions in the catchment areas is presented in the form of correlation graphs between climatic parameters and indexes of circulation on the generalizing diagram.

Climate variability and seasonal weather related to COVID-19

In view of the alarming situation related to coronavirus, of particular interest to the public, decision makers, health organizations, experts, professionals (epidemiologists, virologists, infectologists, psychologists, pulmonologists and others), it is also important to obtain seasonal weather outlook with general overview of the weather and climate conditions and how they would potentially affect the state of the COVID-19 transmission because a number of infectious diseases show seasonal features in their incidence. The analysis below represents an attempt to evaluate atmospheric processes that have a different spatiotemporal scale and depend on other modes of climate variability, and patterns of circulation and specific indices that affect seasonal variation and weather characteristics in a region. Based on seasonal outlook, the general impression is that sunny, warmer increase of (1.0 to 2.0°C) and frequently stormy weather conditions expected during May-June 2020 could likely give some optimistic scenario of slowing down the spreading of the virus further. This is confirmed with the further evaluation of the effective reproduction number, that is expected to decrease from 1.8 at middle of April to 1.2 at the end of June 2020. That is approximately 60-70 % reduction during this warmer period. However, the conclusions are still general and should be taken with caution as the situation is changing from day to day and many other factors including climate conditions, population density and medical care quality also play role in virus transmission.

The impact of climate indices on precipitation variability in Baluchistan, Pakistan

Pakistan’s biggest province in terms of area, Baluchistan appears to have been affected from the climate variability since last few decades. No substantive research works have been carried out in analyzing the precipitation variability in Baluchistan and linkage to large-scale teleconnection. The goal of this paper is to determine possible linkages of precipitation with large scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation indices in the months which have shown changes in precipitation trends in Baluchistan. These climate indices may be the possible predictors for the precipitation in Baluchistan in the respective months. Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test was used to identify the monthly significant precipitation trends in thirteen meteorological stations located in four regions of Baluchistan. The noteworthy trend out of significant trends is selected using Theil and Sen’s slope (TS). Decreasing trend is identified in January whereas increasing trend is identified in June mostly in stations located in North Eastern region of Baluchistan (Region1). The changes in the significant trend in January and June under the influence of climate indices are then determined by Partial Mann-Kendall (PMK). Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), correlation technique between Principal Components (PC) of Region1 precipitation and climatic Indices are used to filter out the relevant climatic indices. It is found out that North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Equatorial Indian Ocean Zonal Wind Index (EQWIN), ENSO Modoki Index (EMI) on annual scale whereas Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) on decadal scale are influencing the January precipitation. It is also found out that El Nino Southern Oscillation-Multivariate ENSO Index (ENSO-MEI), EMI, NAO, PDO and AMO are influencing the June precipitation. These are the dominating indices explains the precipitation variability in January and June in this Region1. This research will impart awareness in the society from the impact of precipitation trend variability.

АНАЛИЗ ГИДРОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО РЕЖИМА И СВЯЗЕЙ ЛЕТНЕ-ОСЕННЕГО СТОКА НИЖНЕГО АМУРА С ЦИРКУЛЯЦИОННЫМИ ИНДЕКСАМИ1

Long-term forecasting of flood flow in the lower reaches of the Amur is an urgent task of modern hydrometeorology serving the needs of economic sectors. The article analyzes the dependences between the runoff volumes in three sections of the Lower Amur and the amount of precipitation (at 10 representative weather stations for the period 1950−2015) as well as atmospheric circulation indices (9 climatic and 8 regional) at the 95% significance level. Considerable attention is paid to the search for predictors of the flood runoff formation (summer-autumn period). For this, the hydrological regime and flow dynamics in the sections of the lower part of the Amur basin (from 1897 to 2018) are considered. Based on the correlation matrices, the effect of atmospheric circulation and precipitation on the river runoff is analyzed. An assessment of the long-term dynamics of runoff volumes showed a decrease in both annual water content and water content in the warm period of the year against the background of a negative trend of precipitation. For regional indices (compared with climatic ones), the largest number of significant asynchronous relationships between the runoff volume and the state of atmospheric circulation was obtained with a lead time of 1 to 5 months. The results of the study will be further used to develop equations for long-term forecasting of flood flow.

Change of indexes of breathing and circulation of blood at loading of step - rising power for young swimmers

The positive is well – proven numerous researches influence swimming on the health of occupying. Therefore question about affecting of employments swimming organism of young swimmers it is necessary to examine taking into account individual of anatomical and physiological features. The aim of the real research was a study of influence of physical activities of step - rising power on breathing and circulation of blood of youths 15-16, regularly visitant a section on swimming. A result of research of indexes of breathing and circulation of blood at the set loading allows describing functional possibilities of youths - swimmers. It was well - proven that the system of preparation of young swimmers was built taking into account age anatomical and physiological features of their organism, and physical activities were adequate to their physiological development. Modern living conditions are characterized by rapid development of automation of production and information technologies, which deprives a person of motor activity. Swimming is one of the most effective means of motor activity that positively influences the functional state of the cardiovascular and respiratory system. Numerous studies have already shown the positive effect of swimming on the health of the practitioners. It should not be forgotten that despite the significant differences in the functional state of the apparatus of external respiration and blood circulation in young swimmers and their peers - not athletes, the organism in both of them has not yet reached maturity and their age development and formation occurs in accordance with a single general biological regularities. Therefore, the question of the impact of swimming lessons on the body of young swimmers should be considered not only in terms of the impact on it of the specific features of the aquatic environment and the requirements of modern training, but also taking into account anatomical and physiological features.

Aerosol Optical Radiation Properties in Kunming (the Low–Latitude Plateau of China) and Their Relationship to the Monsoon Circulation Index

Based on the Langley method and the EuroSkyRad (ESR) pack retrieval scheme, we carried out the retrieval of the aerosol properties for the CE–318 sunphotometer observation data from March 2012 to February 2014 in Kunming, China, and we explored the possible mechanisms of the seasonal variations. The seasonal variation of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) was unimodal and reached a maximum in summer. The retrieval analysis of the Angstrom exponent (α) showed the aerosol types were continental, biomass burning (BB), and urban/industrial (UI); the content of the desert dust (DD) was low, and it may have contained a sea–salt (SS) aerosol due to the influence of the summer monsoon. All the aerosol particle spectra in different seasons showed a bimodal structure. The maximum and submaximal values were located near 0.2 μm and 4 μm, respectively, and the concentration of the aerosol volume was the highest in summer. In summer, aerosol particles have a strong scattering power but a weak absorption power; this pattern is the opposite in winter. The synergistic effect of the East Asian monsoon and the South Asian monsoon seasonal oscillations can have an important impact on the variation of the aerosol properties. The oscillation variation characteristic of the total vertical columnar water vapor (CWV) and the monsoon index was completely consistent. The aerosol types and sources in the Yunnan–Kweichow Plateau and the optical radiation properties were closely related to the monsoon circulation activities during different seasons and were different from other regions in China.

Numerical study of the surface and subsurface vortices suppression in a rectangular pump basin using anti‐vortex devices

AbstractThe present study reports the results of high‐resolution free surface Unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier–Stokes (URANS) simulations of the three‐dimensional (3D) flow field in a rectangular pump intake system. The numerical simulations are composed of various scenarios without/with various anti‐vortex devices (AVDs) to suppress the surface and subsurface vortices around the pipe. For this purpose, after performing a comparison between the streamlines of a benchmark test case and the data available in the literature, the 3D vortical structures around the pipe and inside of the basin have been visualized using the Q‐criterion. In addition, the circulation and swirl angle indices inside the pipe are implemented for evaluating the performance of different types of AVDs. The results showed that the surface vortices cause low frequency oscillations in the pump inlet. In this case, the use of a curtain wall controls the surface vortices and eliminates low frequency and high amplitude oscillations in the pump inlet. Examining various cases with AVDs shows that none of the scenarios with AVDs could fully control the surface and submerged vortices. Due to this fact, a novel geometry for the pump basin is introduced which suppresses the entire free surface, submerged and floor vortices.

Teleconnection analysis of monthly streamflow using ensemble empirical mode decomposition

Streamflow is the result of complex climatic and hydrological interactions that are driven by atmosphere–ocean circulation. Teleconnection analysis of streamflow is significant for identifying the atmosphere- and climate-related indices of hydrology series. To mine the physical information of streamflow series more effectively, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) was employed to decompose streamflow series into inherent stationary components with different periodic oscillations and a trend. In this study, important climate indices were identified based on the correlation coefficients, which were calculated using cross-correlation. According to the selected indicators, the decomposed and streamflow series were regressed using an artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR). In total, 130 climate phenomenon indices, pre-runoff, and 1–12-month time lags were considered as teleconnection variables. The results show that EEMD can be used to extract the period and trend of streamflow, and that the decomposed hydrology components have much stronger correlations than the original runoff with the climate phenomenon indices. The original streamflow was the most closely correlated with the series from the previous month, which is an autocorrelation. However, more physical information was obtained through the teleconnection of the sub-streamflow series. The periodic oscillations was explained by relatively diverse atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature indices with different time lags. The low-frequency periodic series were better represented than the high-frequency series by the climate phenomenon indices. In addition, Nino 3.4, Nino 4, the Warm-pool ENSO Index, and the ENSO Modoki Index were representative of the high-frequency component; the mid-frequency signals were sensitive to the Solar Flux Index, Total Sunspot Number Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index, and Southern Oscillation Index; the low-frequency series were influenced by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation Index, North African Subtropical High Area Index, North Atlantic Triple Index, etc.; and the Indian Ocean Basin-Wide Index, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation Index, Western Pacific Warm Pool Strength Index, and East Pacific 850 mb Trade Wind Index expressed well the long-term trend of monthly streamflow. Meanwhile, the regression results of the decomposed series obtained by the ANN and SVR exhibited better statistical performance than those of the original series, especially for the EEMD-SVR.

Evidence of climate shift for temperature and precipitation extremes across Gansu Province in China

Temperature and precipitation extremes are the dominant causes of natural disasters. In this study, seven indices of extreme temperature and precipitation events in Gansu Province, China, were analysed for the period 1961–2017. An abrupt climate shift was recorded during 1980–1981. Thus, the study period was divided into a preshift (before the climate shift) period 1961–1980 and an aftshift (after the climate shift) period 1981–2017. Comparison of mean extreme indices for preshift and aftshift periods was performed for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied spatially to fit the extreme indices with return periods up to 100 years for preshift/aftshift periods. Singular value decomposition (SVD) was adopted to investigate possible correlation between the extreme climate events and indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation. The results indicate that changes in mean and return levels between the preshift and aftshift periods vary significantly in time and space for different extreme indices. Increase in extreme temperature regarding magnitude and frequency for the aftshift period as compared with the preshift period suggests a change to a warmer and more extreme climate during recent years. Changes in precipitation extremes were different in southern and northern parts of Gansu. The precipitation extremes in the north have increased that can result in more serious floods and droughts in the future. SVD analyses revealed a complex pattern of correlation between climate extremes and indices of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Strengthening of westerlies and weakening of the south summer monsoon contribute to the complex changing patterns of precipitation extremes. Results in this study will contribute to disaster risk prevention and better water management in this area.

Quantifying the potential for improved management of weather risk using sub‐seasonal forecasting: The case of UK telecommunications infrastructure

AbstractReliable and affordable telecommunications are an integral part of service‐based economies, but the nature of the associated physical infrastructure leads to considerable exposure to weather. With unique access to observational records of the UK fixed‐line telecommunications infrastructure, an end‐to‐end demonstration of how extended range forecasts can be used to improve the management of weather risk is presented, assessing forecast value on both short‐term “operational” (weeks) and long‐term “planning” timeframes (months/years). A robust long‐term weather‐related fault‐rate climatology is first constructed at weekly resolution, based on the ERA‐Interim reanalysis. A clear dependence of winter fault rates on large‐scale atmospheric circulation indices is demonstrated. The European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sub‐seasonal forecast system is subsequently shown to produce skilful forecast of winter weekly fault rates at lead times of three to four weeks ahead (i.e. days 14–20 and 21–28). Forecast skill at a given lead time is, however, a necessary rather than a sufficient condition for improved risk management. It is shown that practical decision‐making leads to dependencies across multiple forecasts times that cannot be modelled using traditional “cost‐loss matrix” methods as errors in previous forecasts influence the value of subsequent forecasts. A parsimonious model representing operational decision‐making for fault repair scheduling is therefore constructed to show that fault‐rate forecast skill does improve both short‐ and long‐term management outcomes (in this case meeting performance targets more often in the short term, or reducing the resources required to achieve these targets in the long term). Consequently, it is argued that new methods are needed for forecast skill assessment in complex decision environments.

Evaluation of implant-associated complications after mesh-implants setting in pelvic floor reconstruction

Relevance. According to world data, nowadays prevalence of pelvic floor dysfunction and pelvic organ prolapsed reaches 28%. Most specialists relate pregnancy and delivery to main factors of pelvic prolapse development. Due to lifespan growth frequency of pelvic organ prolapse development increases. According to FDA data annually in the world is made more than 100 000 surgeries with synthetic implants, herewith heavy complications occur in 3.4% and mild complications occur in 14.8% of all cases. About 58% of surgeries are made to women under the age of 60, 13% of patients needs re-intervention during next 5 years. It should be noted that in cases of relapse more than 30% of women need re-intervention. Aim. Evaluate implant-associated complications after mesh-implants setting. Materials and methods. We have made retrospective analysis of mesh-implant use in 458 patients with pelvic organ prolapse in 2018-2018 yy. on the base of Bashkir State Medical University clinic. In order to assess quality of life after mesh-implant setting, we used the following questionnaires: Incontinence Questionnaire Short Form (ICIQ-SF), and also Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI). In order to assess blood microcirculation indices after surgery, we used laser Doppler flowmetry evaluation from anterior vaginal wall. Results. All in all, there were revealed 13 (2.84%) implant-associated complications. In 4 patients ICIQ-SF points were from 3 to 15, which indicates manifestation of urgent urine incontinence signs. According to FSFI questionnaire, sexually active women have 31.5 points. Basic factor, which provokes pelvic floor muscles dysfunction is delivery. Besides, in group of women of reproductive age, pelvic floor muscles dysfunction (PFMD) is associated with the presence of concomitant gynecologic diseases (uterine myoma, endometriosis, ovarian tumors). In the group of women older than 45 years with the presence of somatic pathology - obesity and impaired blood circulation. According to LDF data from anterior vaginal wall women with PFMD have low blood circulation indices, herewith the lowest indices are registered in the group of women older than 45 years.

A new circulation index for the detection of monsoon intensity

AbstractThe Asian summer monsoon is characterized by the presence of a low‐level westerly jet stream (LLJ) in the lower troposphere and a tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) in the upper troposphere. It is interesting to develop an index based on the vertical zonal wind shear and associated rainfall intensity over a monsoon region. The conventional method used to estimate wind shear takes the difference in wind speed between the zonal winds at 850 and 200 hPa. These two fixed levels do not represent the maximum wind speeds at these altitudes and therefore fail to obtain the maximum vertical wind shear. In this study, we propose a new index (the Shinu Mohan [SM] index) by defining the vertical zonal wind shear between the core heights of the low‐level jet stream in the lower troposphere and the TEJ in the upper troposphere, which represents the maximum zonal wind shear in a vertical column of the atmosphere over the summer monsoon region. The core heights of the LLJ and TEJ vary depending on the terrain and the strength of the monsoon circulation. The SM index provides precise vertical shear at each grid point and represents better spatial variability under different terrain conditions. Vertical shear plays a major role in convection and the production of rainfall over a region. Vertical wind shear during extreme monsoon events and the active and break spells of monsoons were analysed by using the SM index and conventional indices. It is interesting to note that the newly defined SM index gives a much better representation of the monsoon intensity compared to conventional indices.

Precipitation seesaw phenomenon and its formation mechanism in the eastern and western parts of Northwest China during the flood season

Extending across three major plateaus, namely the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Plateau and the Loess Plateau, Northwest China has the complex terrain and spatio-temporal climate variations, and is affected by the interactions among different circulation systems, such as the summer monsoon, the westerlies and the plateau monsoon. The understanding of the climate variability, as well as its characteristics and evolution mechanisms in this area has been limited so far. In this paper, the precipitation characteristics and mechanisms in the eastern and western parts of Northwest China during the flood season are compared and analyzed based on the data from 192 national meteorological observational sites in Northwest China in 1961–2016. The results show that, divided by the northern boundary of the East Asian summer monsoon, there are huge differences in the precipitation variation characteristics between the eastern and western parts. The inter-annual variations, inter-decadal variations and total trends in the two parts all show a significant seesaw phenomenon. Moreover, it is found that the seesaw phenomenon of precipitation variation is closely related to the opposite variation between the East Asian summer monsoon index (MI) and the westerly circulation index (WI). In addition, the inverse variations on different time scales are only related to the contributions of precipitation at specific grades. Besides, in the two matching patterns of precipitation in the seesaw phenomenon, the middle and high latitudes are occupied by the “high-low-high” wave trains in the precipitation increases in the east of Northwest China (ENWC) and decreases in the west of Northwest China (WNWC) pattern, meaning precipitation increases in ENWC and decreases in WNWC. Whereas the opposite “low-high-low” wave trains at 500 hPa height are observed in the middle and high latitudes in the WH-EA pattern at 500 hPa height, meaning precipitation increases in WNWC and decreases in ENWC. Thus, the atmosphere circulation situation with two wave train types can support both the precipitation seesaw phenomenon and the opposite variation between MI and WI. Moreover, the seesaw phenomenon is shown to be related to the separate or joint effects of the South Asian High, ENSO and the plateau heating on the common but opposite effect on the summer monsoon and the westerlies, in which the South Asian High probably plays a more critical role. This study could deepen the scientific understanding of precipitation mechanisms and improve the weather forecast technology in Northwest China during the flood season.