Abstract
Meteorological disasters are the result of the interaction of multiple factors and multiple systems. In order to improve the accuracy of prediction, it is necessary not only to consider the characteristics and cycles of each subsystem, but also to study the interaction of all systems. Based on the summer precipitation data and 130 circulation indexes of 34 national meteorological observation stations in Chongqing from 1961 to 2010, the prediction model of Chongqing summer precipitation was established based on the decision tree and the stochastic forest algorithm based on machine learning, and the prediction test of 2011–2018 was carried out independently by the model. Compared with the results of the single-factor prediction model, the trend consistency rate increased by 37.5% and 12.5% respectively. In addition, when using the random forest model to predict summer precipitation in Chongqing from 2014 to 2018, the 5-year average Ps, Cc and PC scores were 84.6, 0.27 and 67.1, respectively, which were significantly improved compared with 72.4, −0.12 and 52.9 of the current climate forecasting methods, and the forecast quality of the random forest was relatively stable. The multi-system collaborative impact model based on decision tree and random forest algorithm can achieve high accuracy and stability. Thus, this method can not only be an effective means for the diagnosis and prediction of climate causes, but also has a good theoretical and practical value for the prediction of extreme disasters.
Highlights
Since summer precipitation is of great concern regarding meteorological disasters, a lot of research work has been done on the influence of climate system subsystem changes and their interactions on summer precipitation
The authors used decision trees and random forests for correlation analysis based on both averages and individual site data from 34 sites
In this paper, the decision tree model takes the average precipitation of 34 sites as the modeling object and focuses on the collaborative influence of multiple factors
Summary
Since summer precipitation is of great concern regarding meteorological disasters, a lot of research work has been done on the influence of climate system subsystem changes and their interactions on summer precipitation. Li [1,2,3] analyzed the characteristics of summer precipitation, drought and flood in the eastern part of southwest China, and pointed out that it had obvious inter-annual and inter-decadal changes. Zhou et al [4] studied the basic climatic characteristics of summer precipitation in the three gorges reservoir area, and the results showed that the summer precipitation in the three gorges reservoir area had a good consistency, the frequency of drought years was significantly higher than that of flood years, and the summer precipitation in the three gorges reservoir area had an obvious inter-decadal variation. Analyzed the main physical factors affecting summer precipitation in southwest China, such as plateau factors, westerly belt system, subtropical high and other factors, and established a summer precipitation. Zhang Qiang et al [6] analyzed the correlation between
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