Churn Prediction Research Articles

Enhancing customer retention in telecom industry with machine learning driven churn prediction

Customer churn remains a critical concern for businesses, highlighting the significance of retaining existing customers over acquiring new ones. Effective prediction of potential churners aids in devising robust retention policies and efficient customer management strategies. This study dives into the realm of machine learning algorithms for predictive analysis in churn prediction, addressing the inherent challenge posed by diverse and imbalanced customer churn data distributions. This paper introduces a novel approach—the Ratio-based data balancing technique, which addresses data skewness as a pre-processing step, ensuring improved accuracy in predictive modelling. This study fills gaps in existing literature by highlighting the effectiveness of ensemble algorithms and the critical role of data balancing techniques in optimizing churn prediction models. While our research contributes a novel approach, there remain avenues for further exploration. This work evaluates several machine learning algorithms—Perceptron, Multi-Layer Perceptron, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbour, Decision Tree, alongside Ensemble techniques such as Gradient Boosting and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—on balanced datasets achieved through our proposed Ratio-based data balancing technique and the commonly used Data Resampling. Results reveal that our proposed Ratio-based data balancing technique notably outperforms traditional Over-Sampling and Under-Sampling methods in churn prediction accuracy. Additionally, using combined algorithms like Gradient Boosting and XGBoost showed better results than using single methods. Our study looked at different aspects like Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F-Score, finding that these combined methods are better for predicting customer churn. Specifically, when we used a 75:25 ratio with the XGBoost method, we got the most promising results for our analysis which are presented in this work.

Data-Driven Decision-Making: Accurate Customer Churn Prediction with Cat-Boost

In the cutthroat telecommunications industry, customer churn poses a significant threat to profitability and brand reputation. To combat this, we propose a data-driven approach to predict churn, leveraging advanced Machine Learning (ML) algorithms on a comprehensive dataset of 7043 customer records with 21 features sourced from the IEEE website. By applying one-hot encoding to transform categorical data, we optimize ML algorithm performance. Our study pits three ML algorithms against each other: Cat Boost, Stochastic Gradient Boost, and Extreme Gradient Boost. The results are striking, with Cat Boost incipient as the top performer, boasting an impressive 94% accuracy, 90% precision, 97% recall, 94% F1-score, and an AUC of 0.94. These discoveries emphasize Cat Boost's extraordinary ability to predict churn, empowering telecom companies to proactively prevent attrition, target high-risk customers, and make data-driven decisions to make the most of profits. In today's speedily developing technical landscape, correctly predicting churn is critical to meeting the ever-changing potential of customers. Our research marks a noteworthy innovation in addressing churn trials, flooring the way for long-term accomplishment in the telecom industry.

Implementasi Metode Klasifikasi LightGBM dan Analisis Survival dalam Memprediksi Pelanggan Churn

Increasingly tight competition in the business world causes every business sector to try to utilize relevant technology to maintain its market share. The success of a company is often measured by how strong the customer network they have. Loss of customers (customer churn) can cause a significant decrease in revenue and can even threaten the existence of the company itself. Therefore, predictive modeling and projection of customer churn is needed as a customer retention effort. This research involves the LightGBM classification algorithm for customer churn prediction and utilizes survival analysis for future projections. The results of the research can be used to prevent customer churn at companies, especially PT Kasir Pintar Internasional. LightGBM classification performance as measured by model evaluation reaches Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F1-score values of 0.964, 0.971, 0.990, and 0.980 respectively. The LightGBM classification model also provides information on five important features that influence customer churn. Companies can use these five important features as material for designing customer retention strategies. Apart from that, the Cox Proportional Hazard survival model has a C-index evaluation value of 0.83, which means it is quite capable of projecting customer survival. The survival model also shows that currently non-churn customers have an average survival expectation of 15 months.

Bank Customer Churn Prediction Using Machine Learning Framework

Abstract Using real customer data from a large community bank in the South of the US, this paper analyzes the customer churn prediction problem by constructing and comparing ten machine learning classification models with five sample techniques. Our results show that Random Forest, XG Boost, AdaBoost, and Bagging Meta classifiers dominate others in terms of overall accuracy, F-score, and AUC curve for the test observations. For the four classifiers, the overall accuracy ranges from 87% to 96% across five different sampling methods explored, while the AUC values range between 0.9 to 0.93. Considering overall accuracy and F-Score, AdaBoost with original and MTDF sampling technique dominates others; however, considering the AUC measure, XG Boost and Random Forest perform similarly to AdaBoost, which slightly dominate Bagging Meta across all sampling techniques; although the performance measures for these four classifiers are comparable across all sampling techniques. The paper further presents important features of customer churn behavior as predicted by the model. The diagnostic analysis also provides an insightful comparison between churned and non-churned customers. JEL classification numbers: C0, C5, C8, G21. Keywords: Machine learning, Big data, Sampling techniques, Customer churn, Customer retention, Financial services, Community bank.

Assessing the effectiveness of OTT services, branded apps, and gamified loyalty giveaways on mobile customer churn in the telecom industry: A machine-learning approach

Telecom operators allocate a significant amount of resources to retain their customers as the organic growth in the number of customers is slowing down. Gamified loyalty programs, branded apps, and over-the-top (OTT) services emerged as ways to develop customer acquisition and retention strategies. Despite these strategies, some mobile customers still churn; therefore, churn prediction plays an essential role in the sustainable future of telecom businesses. Churn prediction is used both to detect customers with a high propensity to churn and to identify the reasons behind their churn behavior. This study examines several features affecting the churn behavior of mobile customers, including branded apps, gamified loyalty programs, and OTT services. In this study, the secondary data is provided by a telecom operator and contains the attributes of both churner and non-churner mobile customers. Logistic regression and random forest classifiers are compared in terms of their predictive power, and we used the latter as the machine learning algorithm in the churn prediction model. To understand the variable importance, mean decrease in impurity and permutation importance are performed. The key findings of this research reveal that while gamified loyalty giveaways and branded app strategies are effective, OTT service strategies show lower importance in predicting mobile customer churn behavior.

Customer Churn Prediction for Telecommunication Companies using Machine Learning and Ensemble Methods

Customer Churn Prediction for Telecommunication Companies using Machine Learning and Ensemble Methods

Leveraging Various Feature Selection Methods for Churn Prediction Using Various Machine Learning Algorithms

This study aims to examine the effect of customer experience on customer retention at DQLab Telco, using machine learning techniques to predict customer churn. The study uses a dataset of 6590 customers of DQLab Telco, which contains various features related to their service usage and satisfaction. The data includes various features such as gender, tenure, phone service, internet service, monthly charges, and total charges. These features represent the demographic and service usage information of the customers. The study applies several feature selection methods, such as ANOVA, Recursive Feature Elimination, Feature Importance, and Pearson Correlation, to select the most relevant features for churn prediction. The study also compares three machine learning algorithms, namely Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting, to build and evaluate the prediction models. This study finds that Logistic Regression without feature selection achieves the highest accuracy of 79.47%, while Random Forest with Feature Importance and Gradient Boosting with Recursive Feature Elimination achieve accuracy of 77.60% and 79.86%, respectively. The study also identifies the features influencing customer churn most, such as monthly charges, tenure, partner, senior citizen, internet service, paperless billing, and TV streaming. The study provides valuable insights for DQLab Telco in developing customer churn reduction strategies based on predictive models and influential features. The study also suggests that feature selection and machine learning algorithms play a vital role in improving the accuracy of churn prediction and should be customized according to the data context.

English

English

A Review on Classification Algorithm for Customer Churn Classification

Any sector faces a huge obstacle when it comes to retaining existing customers. The percentage of consumers who have quit using a product or service is referred to as customer churn, and it is a vital indication that offers reliable information about this percentage. When it comes to achieving long-term success in a market or industry, one of the most significant challenges that any company must face is the ability to keep their precious clients and to fulfill their needs. A review of the most significant studies on Customer Churn Prediction is presented in this paper so as to furnish the reader with an overview of frequently employed data mining methodologies and their respective performances. We provide the available statistics in addition to customer information in order to approximate customer attrition. The time period encompassing the survey extends from 2003 to 2023. During the process of Customer Churn Prediction, we identified the issues and difficulties that were linked with it and offered guidance and potential remedies.

Utilizing Data Science and AI for Customer Churn Prediction in Marketing

This study explores the application of data science and AI techniques in predicting customer churn within the telecommunications industry, a sector characterized by intense competition and high customer turnover rates. By analyzing historical customer data, including usage patterns and service preferences, the study aims to identify factors contributing to churn and propose targeted retention strategies to mitigate losses. Traditional classification algorithms and ensemble techniques are evaluated using the Telecom-Customer-Churn dataset, with emphasis on the underutilized Stacking ensemble method. The results demonstrate that ensemble learning algorithms, particularly the Stacking model, outperform single algorithms, with CatBoost exhibiting the highest accuracy at 0.8119, followed closely by RandomForest at 0.7902 and XGBoost at 0.7820. These findings underscore CatBoost's superior generalization capabilities, likely attributed to its adept handling of categorical features and missing values, and its ability to model complex data relationships. The study contributes to advancing understanding of ensemble models and offers valuable insights for predicting telecom customer churn, thereby aiding in the development of effective retention strategies and enhancing customer satisfaction and loyalty.

Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Marketing strategies with reference to MNCs

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly transforming the marketing landscape. This literature-based study explores the diverse applications of AI in marketing functions, drawing insights from academic journals, industry reports, and marketing publications. The study examines how AI personalizes marketing efforts through targeted advertising and content marketing, while also investigating its role in customer relationship management (CRM). It delves deeper into AI's influence on market research and marketing ROI (Return on Investment) optimization. By analyzing these applications, the study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how AI is shaping the future of marketing. Keywords: Artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, customer segmentation, targeted advertising, content personalization, CRM, market research, marketing ROI, chatbots, recommendation engines, customer churn prediction.

Ensemble-based deep learning techniques for customer churn prediction model

PurposeThe new customer churn prediction (CCP) utilizing deep learning is developed in this work. Initially, the data are collected from the WSDM-KKBox’s churn prediction challenge dataset. Here, the time-varying data and the static data are aggregated, and then the statistic features and deep features with the aid of statistical measures and “Visual Geometry Group 16 (VGG16)”, accordingly, and the features are considered as feature 1 and feature 2. Further, both features are forwarded to the weighted feature fusion phase, where the modified exploration of driving training-based optimization (ME-DTBO) is used for attaining the fused features. It is then given to the optimized and ensemble-based dilated deep learning (OEDDL) model, which is “Temporal Context Networks (DTCN), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM)”, where the optimization is performed with the aid of ME-DTBO model. Finally, the predicted outcomes are attained and assimilated over other classical models.Design/methodology/approachThe features are forwarded to the weighted feature fusion phase, where the ME-DTBO is used for attaining the fused features. It is then given to the OEDDL model, which is “DTCN, RNN, and LSTM”, where the optimization is performed with the aid of the ME-DTBO model.FindingsThe accuracy of the implemented CCP system was raised by 54.5% of RNN, 56.3% of deep neural network (DNN), 58.1% of LSTM and 60% of RNN + DTCN + LSTM correspondingly when the learning percentage is 55.Originality/valueThe proposed CCP framework using the proposed ME-DTBO and OEDDL is accurate and enhances the prediction performance.

A proposed hybrid framework to improve the accuracy of customer churn prediction in telecom industry

In the telecom sector, predicting customer churn has increased in importance in recent years. Developing a robust and accurate churn prediction model takes time, but it is crucial. Early churn prediction avoids revenue loss and improves customer retention. Telecom companies must identify these customers before they leave to solve this issue. Researchers have used a variety of applied machine-learning approaches to reveal the hidden relationships between different features. A key aspect of churn prediction is the accuracy level that affects the learning model's performance. This study aims to clarify several aspects of customer churn prediction accuracy and investigate state-of-the-art techniques' performance. However, no previous research has investigated performance using a hybrid framework combining the advantages of selecting suitable data preprocessing, ensemble learning, and resampling techniques. The study introduces a proposed hybrid framework that improves the accuracy of customer churn prediction in the telecom industry. The framework is built by integrating the XGBOOST classifier with the hybrid resampling method SMOTE-ENN, which concerns applying effective techniques for data preprocessing. The proposed framework is used for two experiments with three datasets in the telecom industry. This study determines which features are most crucial and influence customer churn, introduces the impact of data balancing, compares the classifiers' pre- and post-data balancing performances, and examines a speed-accuracy trade-off in hybrid classifiers. Many metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and ROC curve, are used to analyze the results. All evaluation criteria are used to identify the most effective experiment. The results of the accuracy of the hybrid framework that respects balanced data outperformed applying the classifier only to imbalanced data. In addition, the results of the proposed hybrid framework are compared to previous studies on the same datasets, and the result of this comparison is offered. Compared with the review of the latest works, our proposed hybrid framework with the three datasets outperformed these works.

Improved financial forecasting via quantum machine learning

Quantum algorithms have the potential to enhance machine learning across a variety of domains and applications. In this work, we show how quantum machine learning can be used to improve financial forecasting. First, we use classical and quantum Determinantal Point Processes to enhance Random Forest models for churn prediction, improving precision by almost 6%. Second, we design quantum neural network architectures with orthogonal and compound layers for credit risk assessment, which match classical performance with significantly fewer parameters. Our results demonstrate that leveraging quantum ideas can effectively enhance the performance of machine learning, both today as quantum-inspired classical ML solutions, and even more in the future, with the advent of better quantum hardware.

Sampling-based novel heterogeneous multi-layer stacking ensemble method for telecom customer churn prediction

In recent times, customer churn has become one of the most significant issues in business-oriented sectors with telecommunication being no exception. Maintaining current customers is particularly valuable due to the high degree of rivalry among telecommunication companies and the costs of acquiring new ones. The early prediction of churned customers may help telecommunication companies to identify the causes of churn and design industrial tactics to address or mitigate the churn problem. Controlling customer churn by developing efficient and reliable customer churn prediction (CCP) solutions is essential to achieving this objective. Findings from existing CCP studies have shown that numerous methods, such as rule-based and machine-learning (ML) mechanisms, have been devised to solve the CCP problem. Nonetheless, the problems of adaptability and the resilience of rule-based CCP solutions are its major weaknesses, and the skewed pattern of churn datasets (class imbalance) is detrimental to the prediction performances of conventional ML models in CCP. Hence, this research developed a robust heterogeneous multi-layer stacking ensemble method (HMSE) for effective CCP. Specifically, in the HMSE method, the prediction prowess of five ML classifiers (Random Forest (RF), Bayesian network (BN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), and Repeated Incremental Pruning to Produce Error Reduction (RIPPER)) with distinct computational characteristics are ensembled based on stacking and the resulting model is further enhanced using a forest penalizing attribute (FPA) model. The synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) is integrated with the proposed HMSE to balance the skewed class label present in the original experimental datasets. Extensive tests were carried out to determine the effectiveness of the proposed HMSE and S-HMSE on standard telecom CCP datasets. Observed findings from the experimental results showed that HMSE and S-HMSE can effectively predict churners even with the class imbalance (skewed datasets) problem. In addition, comparison studies demonstrated that the suggested S-HMSE offered improved prediction performance and optimum solutions for CCP in the telecom sector in comparison with baseline classifiers, homogeneous ensemble methods, and current CCP approaches.

Customer Retention Analysis for Telecom Industry

Abstract: In today’s highly competitive telecom industry, retaining customers is vital for sustaining business growth and profitability. Customer churn, the phenomenon where customers switch from one service provider to another, poses a significant challenge for telecom companies. Predicting churn can help these companies take proactive measures to retain valuable customers. This study explores the application of machine learning algorithms for predicting customer churn in the telecom industry. Additionally, the research contributes to the existing body of knowledge in the field of customer churn prediction, showcasing the potential of machine learning algorithms in addressing complex business challenges.

Double-Compressed Artificial Neural Network for Efficient Model Storage in Customer Churn Prediction

In the rapidly evolving field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), efficiently storing and managing AI models is crucial, particularly as their complexity and size increase. This paper explores the strategic importance of AI model storage, focusing on performance, cost-efficiency, and scalability within the realm of customer churn prediction, utilizing model compression technologies. Deep learning networks, integral to AI models, have become increasingly large, necessitating millions of parameters. These parameters make the models computationally expensive and voluminous in storage requirements. Addressing these issues, the paper discusses the application of model compression techniques—specifically pruning and quantization—to mitigate the storage and computational challenges. The experimental results demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method. These techniques reduce the physical footprint of AI models and enhance their processing efficiency, making them suitable for deployment on resource-constrained devices. Using these models in customer churn prediction in telecommunications illustrates their potential to improve service delivery and decision-making processes. By compressing models, telecom companies can better manage and analyze large datasets, enabling more effective customer retention strategies and maintaining a competitive edge in a dynamic market.

Improving Shopping Mall Revenue by Real-Time Customized Digital Coupon Issuance

With the development of big data and deep learning technology, big data and deep learning technology have also been applied to the marketing field, which was a part of business administration. Customer churn management is one of the most important areas of marketing. In this paper, we proposed a method to prevent customer churn and increase purchase conversion rate by issuing customized discount coupons to customers with high churn rate based on big data in real time. After segmenting customer segments with two-dimensional segment analysis, a real-time churn rate estimation model based on clickstream data was generated for each segment. After that, we issued customized coupons to our customers. Finally, we tested the conversion rate and sales growth. A two-dimensional cluster analysis-based churn rate estimation combined with a recommendation system was found to be significantly more useful than the respective simple models. Using this proposed model, it is possible to increase sales by automatically estimating the customer’s churn probability and shopping propensity without the burden of marketing costs in the online shopping mall. Keyword: Customer churn prediction, deep learning, digital marketing, ecommerce, recommendation system.

Customer Churn Prediction in Telecom Based on Machine Learning

Customer churn, a critical metric in the telecommunications industry, reflects the propensity of customers to discontinue service usage, thereby affecting the revenue and growth of a company. Customer churn is greatly affected by individuals and products, and there is no obvious rule, which greatly increases the difficulty of customer loss prediction. With the development of machine learning, the prediction in telecom churn using machine learning has attracted wide attention from researchers. However, there are great differences between different algorithms, which increases the difficulty of application. Therefore, this paper studies the issue of customer churn prediction from the aspect of algorithm. This paper introduces the common data sets and evaluation indexes of customer churn prediction, and then introduces logistic regression, decision tree, K-nearest neighbor, random forest, Gaussian naive Bayes, XGBoost, gradient enhancement and neural network algorithms. Then, through the experimental analysis, the differences between these models are compared. Finally, the paper summarizes the full text and discusses the future research hotspots.

Player Churn Prediction In Free To Play Game Using Ensemble Learning

Player churn is a prevalent challenge in the gaming industry. Most predictions of player churn utilize private datasets that are not easily accessible to the public. This study aims to investigate the performance of Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and Ensemble Learning models using a dataset from a public API for predicting player churn, in comparison to other studies that typically rely on private game logs. In this research, the dataset consists of 418 unique player IDs, with a churn rate of 15%. After training the models, it was found that Logistic Regression and SVM achieved an accuracy of 95%, Random Forest achieved an accuracy of 96%, and Ensemble Learning, with Neural Network as the meta-learner, achieved an accuracy of 92%. These results underscore the validity of using public API data as an alternative data source for predicting player churn. n.