Chronic Drought Research Articles

Seasonal drought in Mediterranean soils mainly changes microbial C and N contents whereas chronic drought mainly impairs the capacity of microbes to retain P

Intensification of droughts may aggravate the generally low capacity of Mediterranean soils to store C and nutrients and induce soil C:N:P stoichiometric imbalances through its impact on soil microbial biomass and activity. Soil microbes may nonetheless have different responses to seasonal and chronic drought, but very few studies investigate long-term drought periods under field conditions. This study compares the effects of seasonal drought versus the impacts of 16 years of chronic experimental drought on microbial biomass and nutrients and assess the implications for soil nutrient availability and biogeochemical functioning in a Mediterranean forest. The chronic drought treatment reduced substantially and persistently microbial biomass C, N and particularly P, probably due to P-sparing community shifts or microbial adaptations. The smaller microbial N pool and lower mineralization activity contributed to the accumulation of C- and N-rich organic compounds in the soil and to a lower availability of mineralized forms of N during the vegetation growing season. As a result, chronic drought conditions may increase the risks of N losses from the plant-soil system in Mediterranean ecosystems. Microbial C:N ratios remained unaltered under chronic drought compared to control, likely associated with the equivalent accumulation of C- and N-rich osmolytes by microbial communities. In contrast, microbial biomass increased its C content relative to N content in response to seasonal drought, but also reduced considerably its N and P pool. Therefore, while microbial P was more sensitive to chronic water stress, microbial N and C were more closely coupled to the seasonal fluctuations of water availability.

Northernmost European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus outbreak: Modelling tree mortality using remote sensing and climate data

Acute or chronic drought stress caused by climate change can contribute to the weakening of forest ecosystems and lead to extensive bark beetle infestations. Siberian spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.) forests of the Dvinsko-Pinegskiy, a natural reserve in the Arkhangelsk region, Russia, have been subject to unprecedented tree cover loss caused by the Eurasian spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) in the last two decades. This is the first recorded case of such an extensive outbreak of Ips typographus occurring at higher latitudes. We used remote sensing and climate data to model and compute annual tree-loss change due to natural factors, with a focus on bark beetle outbreaks, over a 14-year period (2001–2014). Usinglinear regression models, we found a combination of average annual temperature and precipitation, temperature and precipitation in June, to be the most important drivers of annual tree-loss.

Root Suberin Plays Important Roles in Reducing Water Loss and Sodium Uptake in Arabidopsis thaliana.

Suberin is a cell-wall-associated hetero-polymer deposited in specific plant tissues. The precise role of its composition and lamellae structure in protecting plants against abiotic stresses is unclear. In Arabidopsis thaliana, we tested the biochemical and physiological responses to water deficiency and NaCl treatment in mutants that are differentially affected in suberin composition and lamellae structure. Chronic drought stress increased suberin and suberin-associated waxes in wild-type plants. Suberin-deficient mutants were not more susceptible than the wild-type to the chronic drought stress imposed in this study. Nonetheless, the cyp86a1-1 cyp86b1-1 mutant, which had a severely altered suberin composition and lamellae structure, exhibited increased water loss through the root periderm. Cyp86a1-1 cyp86b1-1 also recorded lower relative water content in leaves. The abcg2-1 abcg6-1 abcg20-1 mutant, which has altered suberin composition and lamellae, was very sensitive to NaCl treatment. Furthermore, cyp86a1-1 cyp86b1-1 recorded a significant drop in the leaf K/Na ratio, indicating salt sensitivity. The far1-2 far4-1 far5-1 mutant, which did not show structural defects in the suberin lamellae, had similar responses to drought and NaCl treatments as the wild-type. Our results provide evidence that the suberin amount and lamellae structure are key features in the barrier function of suberin in reducing water loss and reducing sodium uptake through roots for better performance under drought and salt stresses.

Responses of ecosystem respiration, methane uptake and nitrous oxide emission to drought in a temperate desert steppe

AimsDrought significantly impacts ecosystem structure and function, especially the transformation rates of soil carbon and nitrogen. This study explores how drought affects ecosystem respiration (Re), methane (CH4) uptake and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in temperate desert steppes and the underlying mechanisms.MethodsAn in-situ experiment was conducted in the Inner Mongolia desert steppe in northern China to study the effect of drought on Re, CH4 and N2O fluxes. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to establish the relationship between Re, CH4 uptake and N2O emissions and plant functional traits and environmental factors.ResultsEcosystem respiration and CH4 uptake were both significantly reduced by chronic drought (66 % precipitation reduction from 1 May to 31 August) but not by pulse drought (100 % precipitation reduction in June and July). In contrast, no significant impact on N2O emissions was observed under chronic or pulse drought. There were no significant direct effects of soil moisture on Re, CH4 uptake or N2O emissions. However, soil moisture had an important indirect effect on Re, CH4 uptake and N2O emissions, mainly through its influence on plant functional traits, plant above-ground biomass and soil nutrients. Plant biomass and soil temperature were the key indicators of Re, and plant leaf nitrogen content was the key plant trait associated with N2O emissions. In contrast, plant specific leaf area and biomass were the key traits associated with CH4 uptake.ConclusionsOverall, Re and CH4 uptake were reduced by chronic drought in this desert steppe, but there was no significant effect on N2O emissions. Ecosystem respiration, CH4 uptake and N2O emissions were associated with plant functional traits. This provides new insight for the understanding of soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics in desert steppe systems under drought conditions and an important theoretical basis for the revision of model parameters.

Community response of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi to extreme drought in a cold-temperate grassland.

Climate extremes pose enormous threats to natural ecosystems. Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi are key plant symbionts that can affect plant community dynamics and ecosystem stability. However, knowledge about how AM fungal communities respond to climate extremes in natural ecosystems remains elusive. Based on a grassland extreme drought experiment in Inner Mongolia, we investigated the response of AM fungal communities to extreme drought in association with plant communities. The experiment simulated two types of extreme drought (chronic/intense) of once-in-20-year occurrence. AM fungal richness and community composition exhibited high sensitivity to extreme drought and were more sensitive to intense drought than chronic drought. This community sensitivity (i.e. decline in richness and shifts in community composition) of AM fungi can be jointly explained by soil moisture, plant richness, and aboveground productivity. Notably, the robustness of the plant-AM fungal community co-response increased with drought intensity. Our results indicate that AM fungal communities are sensitive to climate extremes, and we propose that the plant community mediates AM fungal community responses. Given the ubiquitous nature of AM associations, their climate sensitivity may have profound consequences on plant communities and ecosystem stability under climate change.

Requiem for the Tricolored Blackbird in Mexico?

We summarize existing literature and document a recent steep population decline and range contraction in the Tricolored Blackbird (Agelaius tricolor) at the southern end of its range, in Baja California, the only state of Mexico in which the species occurs. From >1000 nesting birds using at least 14 sites south to 30° N around the turn of the 21st century, the population declined and contracted northward and upward in elevation to a single colony of ~150 nesting birds near the international border in 2019. Chronic drought, rising temperatures, and habitat losses due primarily to intensification of agriculture in Mexico are largely responsible for the decline, as in the core of the species’ range in California. Because of the reduction of breeding and foraging habitat, we fear the imminent extirpation of the species in Mexico.

Adaptation to chronic drought modifies soil microbial community responses to phytohormones

Drought imposes stress on plants and associated soil microbes, inducing coordinated adaptive responses, which can involve plant–soil signalling via phytohormones. However, we know little about how microbial communities respond to phytohormones, or how these responses are shaped by chronic (long-term) drought. Here, we added three phytohormones (abscisic acid, 1-aminocyclopropane-1-carboxylic acid, and jasmonic acid) to soils from long-term (25-year), field-based climate treatments to test the hypothesis that chronic drought alters soil microbial community responses to plant stress signalling. Phytohormone addition increased soil respiration, but this effect was stronger in irrigated than in droughted soils and increased soil respiration at low phytohormone concentrations could not be explained by their use as substrate. Thus, we show that drought adaptation within soil microbial communities modifies their responses to phytohormone inputs. Furthermore, distinct phytohormone-induced shifts in microbial functional groups in droughted vs. irrigated soils might suggest that drought-adapted soil microorganisms perceive phytohormones as stress-signals, allowing them to anticipate impending drought.

Soil fungal communities are compositionally resistant to drought manipulations – Evidence from culture-dependent and culture-independent analyses

Current environmental change predictions forecast intensified drought conditions. It is becoming increasingly evident that plant communities are sensitive to drought and that soil-inhabiting microbial communities vary along precipitation gradients. However, the drought sensitivity of microbial communities in general and that of soil fungi in particular remains unclear, even though understanding their responses to adverse environmental conditions is vital for better understanding of ecosystem service provisioning. We sampled soils at two sites with established experiments that imposed extreme, chronic drought to assess fungal community responses. We analyzed fungal communities using both culture-dependent and -independent tools and MiSeq-sequenced communities from colony forming units (CFU-PCR) on a drought simulating medium and from environmental DNA (ePCR), to compare the conclusions derived from these two methods. Our data from the two approaches consistently indicate that the composition of fungal communities is not affected by the drought treatment, whereas – based on the CFU-PCR but not ePCR data – their richness and diversity increased under drought conditions at the more mesic of the two sites. Further, based on the direct comparisons of CFU-PCR and ePCR, we estimate that more than 10% of the fungal community and more than 20% of the ascomycetes were culturable. We conclude that although recent research indicates that plant and bacterial communities respond to drought, fungal community responses are more variable, particularly in experiments that impose chronic drought under field conditions.

Do seedlings of larger geophytic species outperform smaller ones when challenged by drought?

In semiarid regions, decreasing rainfall presents a challenge to perennial seedlings that must reach sufficient size to survive the first year's seasonal drought. Attaining a large storage organ size has been hypothesized to enhance drought resilience in geophytes, but building larger storage organs requires faster growth, but paradoxically, some traits that confer faster growth are highly sensitive to drought. We examined whether tuber size confers greater drought resilience in seedlings of four closely related geophytic species of Pelargonium. We imposed two drought treatments when seedlings were 2 months old: chronic low water and acute water restriction for 10 days. Plants in the acute dry-down treatment were then rewatered at control levels. We compared morphological and ecophysiological traits at 2, 3, and 6 months of age and used mixed-effects models to identify traits determining tuber biomass at dormancy. Despite a 10-fold variation in size, species had similar physiological trait values under well-watered conditions. Chronic and acute droughts negatively affected tuber size at the end of the season, but only in the two species with large tubers. Chronic drought did not affect physiological traits of any species, but in response to acute drought, larger species showed reduced photosynthetic performance. Canopy area was the best predictor of final tuber biomass. Contradictory to the hypothesis that large tubers provide greater drought resiliency, small Pelargonium seedlings actually had higher drought tolerance, although at the expense of more vigorous growth compared to species with larger tubers under well-watered conditions.

Is a drought a drought in grasslands? Productivity responses to different types of drought.

Drought, defined as a marked deficiency of precipitation relative to normal, occurs as periods of below-average precipitation or complete failure of precipitation inputs, and can be limited to a single season or prolonged over multiple years. Grasslands are typically quite sensitive to drought, but there can be substantial variability in the magnitude of loss of ecosystem function. We hypothesized that differences in how drought occurs may contribute to this variability. In four native Great Plains grasslands (three C4- and one C3-dominated) spanning a ~ 500-mm precipitation gradient, we imposed drought for four consecutive years by (1) reducing each rainfall event by 66% during the growing season (chronic drought) or (2) completely excluding rainfall during a shorter portion of the growing season (intense drought). The drought treatments were similar in magnitude but differed in the following characteristics: event number, event size and length of dry periods. We observed consistent drought-induced reductions (28-37%) in aboveground net primary production (ANPP) only in the C4-dominated grasslands. In general, intense drought reduced ANPP more than chronic drought, with little evidence that drought duration altered this pattern. Conversely, belowground net primary production (BNPP) was reduced by drought in all grasslands (32-64%), with BNPP reductions greater in intense vs. chronic drought treatments in the most mesic grassland. We conclude that grassland productivity responses to drought did not strongly differ between these two types of drought, but when differences existed, intense drought consistently reduced function more than chronic drought.

High risk of growth cessation of planted larch under extreme drought

Larch trees are widely used in afforestation and timber plantations. Yet, little is known on how planted larch trees cope with increasing drought. We used a tree-ring network of 818 trees from 31 plantations spanning most of the distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii to investigate how extreme drought influences larch radial growth in northern China. We found that summer drought, rather than temperature or precipitation, had the strongest relationship with radial growth throughout the region. Drought increased in frequency in recent decades, leaving a strong imprint on the radial growth of larch, particularly in dry sites. Across its distribution, radial growth in larch trees that experienced extreme droughts more frequently displayed lower resistance to drought, but higher recovery after it, suggesting these populations were better adapted to extreme droughts. Radial growth decreased with increasing drought, with particularly severe declines below a threshold Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) value of −3 to −3.5. Extreme droughts (PDSI < −4.5) caused a reduction of 62% of radial growth and chronic drought events caused around 20% reduction in total radial growth compared with mean growth on the driest sites. Given that current climate projections for northern China indicate a strong increase in the frequency and severity of extreme drought, trees in large portions of the largest afforestation project in the world, particularly those in the drier edge, are likely to experience severe growth reductions in the future.

MONITORING DROUGHT VULNERABILITY AT DIFFERENT TIME SCALES: A CASE STUDY FROM RAJSHAHI DISTRICT, BANGLADESH

Drought is a slow onset natural disaster which creates a threat to social and agro-ecological balance. The failure of rain and the occurrence of drought during any particular growing season may lead to severe food shortage and increase vulnerability. The purpose of this study is to estimate the Drought Index (DI) in multiple time scales for Rajshahi district of Bangladesh.The 52 years daily rainfall data during the period 1964-2015 used for analysis. There were some missing data over that range. We separated this time interval in 5, 7 and 10 days series format then we estimate missing value by using imputtation method. Finally, we used R code to analyze Markov Chain Model by considering threshold value 3mm. At first, we find out the Drought Index from the first transition probability matrix and then estimate with higher transition probability matrix. When the higher transition probability matrix became stable, then we estimate the DI. The empirical study showed that for 5, 7 and 10 days Drought Index (DI) followed extreme to moderate, mild to occasional, and extreme to occasionally drought respectively. But in first transition probability matrix it showed chronic drought and due to climate change after different stages chronic drought turned into severe, moderate, mild and occasional drought. In overall interpretation, we found mild for 5 days and occasional drought for 7 and 10 days respectively. By extracting information about drought characteristics that include its spatial extent, severity, and frequency are important for policy maker to take necessary steps in advance to mitigate the effect of drought for producing crops which will reduce the food insecurity and vulnerability for developing sustainable development.

The influence of a prolonged meteorological drought on catchment water storage capacity: a hydrological-model perspective

Abstract. Understanding the propagation of prolonged meteorological drought helps solve the problem of intensified water scarcity around the world. Most of the existing literature studied the propagation of drought from one type to another (e.g., from meteorological to hydrological drought) with statistical approaches; there remains difficulty in revealing the causality between meteorological drought and potential changes in the catchment water storage capacity (CWSC). This study aims to identify the response of the CWSC to the meteorological drought by examining the changes of hydrological-model parameters after drought events. Firstly, the temporal variation of a model parameter that denotes that the CWSC is estimated to reflect the potential changes in the real CWSC. Next, the change points of the CWSC parameter were determined based on the Bayesian change point analysis. Finally, the possible association and linkage between the shift in the CWSC and the time lag of the catchment (i.e., time lag between the onset of the drought and the change point) with multiple catchment properties and climate characteristics were identified. A total of 83 catchments from southeastern Australia were selected as the study areas. Results indicated that (1) significant shifts in the CWSC can be observed in 62.7 % of the catchments, which can be divided into two subgroups with the opposite response, i.e., 48.2 % of catchments had lower runoff generation rates, while 14.5 % of catchments had higher runoff generation rate; (2) the increase in the CWSC during a chronic drought can be observed in smaller catchments with lower elevation, slope and forest coverage of evergreen broadleaf forest, while the decrease in the CWSC can be observed in larger catchments with higher elevation and larger coverage of evergreen broadleaf forest; (3) catchments with a lower proportion of evergreen broadleaf forest usually have a longer time lag and are more resilient. This study improves our understanding of possible changes in the CWSC induced by a prolonged meteorological drought, which will help improve our ability to simulate the hydrological system under climate change.

Chronic and intense droughts differentially influence grassland carbon-nutrient dynamics along a natural aridity gradient

Grasslands are expected to experience both long-term chronic reductions in precipitation as well as increased frequency of short-term intense droughts. However, few studies have assessed how these two types of drought differentially alter carbon-nutrient dynamics of grassland vegetation and soil on broad spatial and temporal scales. We conducted a two-year drought experiment in three types of grasslands along a natural aridity gradient in northern China. In each grassland, we removed ~ 50% of annual rainfall using two methods—chronic drought (66% reduction of each rainfall event for four months) and intense drought (100% removal of rainfall for two months). This allowed us to compare the effects of these drought characteristics on carbon and nutrient content of both vegetation and soil. Drought largely led to decreased carbon and nutrient pools, with vegetation concentrations being less responsive than pools likely due to decreased plant biomass. These responses depended on drought type, with no clear directional pattern of intense droughts having a greater effect than chronic drought. Sensitivity of biogeochemical responses to drought treatments decreased with increased aridity, likely due to the high abundance of drought-tolerant species in more xeric grasslands. Overall, ecosystem biogeochemical responses to manipulative drought did not match trends observed along the natural aridity gradient. The sensitivity of carbon-nutrient dynamics of plant and soil strongly depends on drought type as well as local climate and species composition. Such differential drought responses highlight the challenge of predicting ecosystem responses to climate change over large spatial scales.

Climate‐driven evolutionary change in reproductive and early‐acting life‐history traits in the perennial grass Festuca ovina

Abstract Reproductive and early‐acting life‐history traits are likely to be particularly important determinants of plant fitness under a changing climate. There have, however, been few robust tests of the evolution of these traits under chronic climate change in natural ecosystems. Such studies are urgently needed, to evaluate the contribution of evolutionary change to population persistence. Here, we examine climate‐driven evolutionary change in reproductive and early‐acting plant life‐history traits in the long‐lived perennial plant, Festuca ovina. We collected established plants of F. ovina from species‐rich calcareous grassland at the Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL), after 17 years of in situ experimental drought treatment. P1 plants collected from drought‐treated and control (ambient climate) plots at BCCIL were used to create an open‐pollinated F1 progeny array, which was subsequently validated using microsatellite markers to establish a robust bi‐parental pedigree. We measured the timing of germination and seed mass in the F1 progeny, the P1 paternal contribution to F1 offspring (paternal reproductive success), and assessed the effects of flowering time on the mating system. F1 seed with ancestry in drought‐treated plots at BCCIL germinated significantly later than seed derived from individuals from control plots. P1 plants from the drought treatment flowered significantly earlier than those from the control plots in summer 2012, but not in 2013. Male reproductive success was also lower in P1 plants collected from drought plots than those from control plots. Furthermore, our pedigree revealed that mating among parents of the F1 progeny had been assortative with respect to flowering time. Synthesis. Our study shows that chronic drought treatment at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory has driven rapid evolutionary change in reproductive and early‐acting life‐history traits in Festuca ovina, and suggests that evolutionary differentiation may be reinforced through changes in flowering time that reduce the potential for gene flow.

Robust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century.

Dryland ecosystems may be especially vulnerable to expected 21st century increases in temperature and aridity because they are tightly controlled by moisture availability. However, climate impact assessments in drylands are difficult because ecological dynamics are dictated by drought conditions that are difficult to define and complex to estimate from climate conditions alone. In addition, precipitation projections vary substantially among climate models, enhancing variation in overall trajectories for aridity. Here, we constrain this uncertainty by utilizing an ecosystem water balance model to quantify drought conditions with recognized ecological importance, and by identifying changes in ecological drought conditions that are robust among climate models, defined here as when >90% of models agree in the direction of change. Despite limited evidence for robust changes in precipitation, changes in ecological drought are robust over large portions of drylands in the United States and Canada. Our results suggest strong regional differences in long-term drought trajectories, epitomized by chronic drought increases in southern areas, notably the Upper Gila Mountains and South-Central Semi-arid Prairies, and decreases in the north, particularly portions of the Temperate and West-Central Semi-arid Prairies. However, we also found that exposure to hot-dry stress is increasing faster than mean annual temperature over most of these drylands, and those increases are greatest in northern areas. Robust shifts in seasonal drought are most apparent during the cool season; when soil water availability is projected to increase in northern regions and decrease in southern regions. The implications of these robust drought trajectories for ecosystems will vary geographically, and these results provide useful insights about the impact of climate change on these dryland ecosystems. More broadly, this approach of identifying robust changes in ecological drought may be useful for other assessments of climate impacts in drylands and provide a more rigorous foundation for making long-term strategic resource management decisions.

Modeling of the potential distribution of Eichhornia crassipes on a global scale: risks and threats to water ecosystems

The water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes) is listed among the 100 worst invasive plants and was ranked as the 11th worst invasive species in Europe, being a threat to aquatic biodiversity and water-provision. Predicting species distribution is the first step to understanding niche suitability, forecasting the invasion impact and building resilience against this species. In this study, we used a potential distribution model to assess the global risk of water hyacinth invasion by overlapping maps of highly suitable areas for water hyacinth occurrence and areas of biological importance and water scarcity. The MaxEnt - Maximum Entropy algorithm was used in the construction of the model and included five global bioclimatic layers and one of urbanized areas. Among the variables used, occurrence is mainly explained by urban areas, highlighting the importance of cities as a source or dispersion mechanism of the water hyacinth. Global biodiversity hotspots are predominantly situated in high suitability regions for the species. Ramsar sites and global protected areas are at a lower risk level compared to hotspots; however, future climate change and urban growth scenarios could put these areas at higher risk for invasion. Threats posed by the water hyacinth are possibly more acute in regions suffering from current or chronic drought. The results suggest that niche models that do not consider anthropic variables may be underestimating potential distribution of invasive species. Furthermore, the ecological plasticity of the water hyacinth and its close association with cities increase the concern about the impact of this species on the environment and on water security.

Deepened winter snow cover enhances net ecosystem exchange and stabilizes plant community composition and productivity in a temperate grassland.

Global warming has greatly altered winter snowfall patterns, and there is a trend towards increasing winter snow in semi-arid regions in China. Winter snowfall is an important source of water during early spring in these water-limited ecosystems, and it can also affect nutrient supply. However, we know little about how changes in winter snowfall will affect ecosystem productivity and plant community structure during the growing season. Here, we conducted a 5-year winter snow manipulation experiment in a temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia. We measured ecosystem carbon flux from 2014 to 2018 and plant biomass and species composition from 2015 to 2018. We found that soil moisture increased under deepened winter snow in early growing season, particularly in deeper soil layers. Deepened snow increased the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE) and reduced intra- and inter-annual variation in NEE. Deepened snow did not affect aboveground plant biomass (AGB) but significantly increased root biomass. This suggested that the enhanced NEE was allocated to the belowground, which improved water acquisition and thus contributed to greater stability in NEE in deep-snow plots. Interestingly, the AGB of grasses in the control plots declined over time, resulting in a shift towards a forb-dominated system. Similar declines in grass AGB were also observed at three other locations in the region over the same time frame and are attributed to 4years of below-average precipitation during the growing season. By contrast, grass AGB was stabilized under deepened winter snow and plant community composition remained unchanged. Hence, our study demonstrates that increased winter snowfall may stabilize arid grassland systems by reducing resource competition, promoting coexistence between plant functional groups, which ultimately mitigates the impacts of chronic drought during the growing season.

Spectral differentiation of oak wilt from foliar fungal disease and drought is correlated with physiological changes.

Hyperspectral reflectance tools have been used to detect multiple pathogens in agricultural settings and single sources of infection or broad declines in forest stands. However, differentiation of any one disease from other sources of tree stress is integral for stand and landscape-level applications in mixed species systems. We tested the ability of spectral models to differentiate oak wilt, a fatal disease in oaks caused by Bretziella fagacearum ``Bretz'', from among other mechanisms of decline. We subjected greenhouse-grown oak seedlings (Quercus ellipsoidalis ``E.J. Hill'' and Quercus macrocarpa ``Michx.'') to chronic drought or inoculation with the oak wilt fungus or bur oak blight fungus (Tubakia iowensis ``T.C. Harr. & D. McNew''). We measured leaf and canopy spectroscopic reflectance (400-2400nm) and instantaneous photosynthetic and stomatal conductance rates, then used partial least-squares discriminant analysis to predict treatment from hyperspectral data. We detected oak wilt before symptom appearance, and classified the disease with high accuracy in symptomatic leaves. Classification accuracy from spectra increased with declines in photosynthetic function in oak wilt-inoculated plants. Wavelengths diagnostic of oak wilt were only found in non-visible spectral regions and are associated with water status, non-structural carbohydrates and photosynthetic mechanisms. We show that hyperspectral models can differentiate oak wilt from other causes of tree decline and that detection is correlated with biological mechanisms of oak wilt infection and disease progression. We also show that within the canopy, symptom heterogeneity can reduce detection, but that symptomatic leaves and tree canopies are suitable for highly accurate diagnosis. Remote application of hyperspectral tools can be used for specific detection of disease across a multi-species forest stand exhibiting multiple stress symptoms.

Political stability as a factor affecting growth in agricultural sub-Saharan African countries

The agricultural countries of sub-Saharan Africa remain the least economically advanced region of the world, with the relatively lowest quality of life. The agricultural sector plays a particularly important role in the economies of these countries. However, it is underdeveloped as a result of factors such as inadequate agricultural policy, institutional instability, chronic droughts, epidemics, deterioration of the environment, deteriorating infrastructure and insufficient investment in agricultural research in sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of the paper is to examine the impact of political stabilization on the economic growth in these countries. We were also inclined to determine what the interdependences were between political stability and factors important for agricultural activity for both agricultural and non-agricultural sub-Saharan counties in the 1995–2017 period. The methods used in this research included panel models with fixed effects, non-parametric tests and quantile regression. It was found that stabilizing the political situation and lowering the level of conflict risk contributed to the growth of GDP per capita in both agricultural and non-agricultural countries. However, in agricultural countries, it also influenced the modernization of agricultural production methods and a shift in the proportion of agricultural production in the total volume of imports and exports. Furthermore, it was found that political stability contributed to a greater extent to the improvement of GDP per capita in the lowest income countries.