Northernmost European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus outbreak: Modelling tree mortality using remote sensing and climate data

Abstract

Acute or chronic drought stress caused by climate change can contribute to the weakening of forest ecosystems and lead to extensive bark beetle infestations. Siberian spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.) forests of the Dvinsko-Pinegskiy, a natural reserve in the Arkhangelsk region, Russia, have been subject to unprecedented tree cover loss caused by the Eurasian spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) in the last two decades. This is the first recorded case of such an extensive outbreak of Ips typographus occurring at higher latitudes. We used remote sensing and climate data to model and compute annual tree-loss change due to natural factors, with a focus on bark beetle outbreaks, over a 14-year period (2001–2014). Usinglinear regression models, we found a combination of average annual temperature and precipitation, temperature and precipitation in June, to be the most important drivers of annual tree-loss.