Sequential Choice Research Articles

Task-Based Language Teaching With a Semantic-Centred Pedagogic Grammar

Task-based language teaching (TBLT) is well known for providing authentic opportunities for second and foreign language (L2) skill development. However, for many learners the use of traditional grammar within TBLT lacks the functional support necessary to create accurate and fluent L2 output. The current study replaced traditional grammar explanations with a semantic meaning-order approach to pedagogical grammar (MAP or MAP grammar) as a means to bridge the language in tasks to their function and thereby strengthen form-to-meaning understanding. The study combined TBLT and MAP grammar to look for changes in the complexity, accuracy, and fluency of 127 L2 learners’ writings. The results showed TBLT and MAP separately increased syntactic complexity, whereas the combination of the two provided gains in accuracy and fluency. This was achieved by systematically directing learners’ attention to a sequence of functional choices thereby simplifying necessary metalinguistic explanations.

Pressure and the ability to randomize decision-making: The case of the pickoff play in Major League Baseball

In mixed strategy games, the ability to randomize decisions is a critical strategic necessity, yet studies show that such rational behavior is sometimes elusive. This paper examines mixed strategy play in a natural setting, by looking at a pitcher’s decision to throw the ball to home plate or to throw it to first base in a pickoff play. In the absence of significant pressure, we find that pitchers can effectively randomize their sequence of choices to remain unpredictable, as mixed strategy Nash equilibriums require. However, in the face of pressure, some pitchers are less able to randomize their choices. Our paper is the first empirical study in the English language literature to find that decision makers are unable to randomize their strategic decisions when they face an increased cognitive load due to pressure.

Effect of Sequential or Active Choice for Colorectal Cancer Screening Outreach

Colonoscopy and fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) are considered top-tier tests for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Behavioral economic insights about "choice architecture" suggest that participation could be influenced by how people are presented test options. To investigate response rates for offering colonoscopy only compared with sequential choice (colonoscopy and then FIT) or active choice (colonoscopy or FIT) through mailed outreach. Three-arm pragmatic randomized clinical trial conducted between November 14, 2017, and May 14, 2018. The setting was primary care practices at an academic health system. Patients aged 50 to 74 years with at least 2 primary care visits in the 2-year preenrollment period were included if they were eligible but not up to date on CRC screening. Eligible patients received mailed outreach about CRC screening. Equal numbers of eligible patients were randomly assigned to 3 outreach groups to receive mailings about CRC screening with the following options: (1) direct phone number to call for scheduling colonoscopy (colonoscopy only), (2) direct phone number to call for colonoscopy and a mailed FIT kit if no response within 4 weeks (sequential choice), or (3) direct phone number to call for colonoscopy and a mailed FIT kit offered at the same time (active choice). The primary outcome was CRC screening completion (FIT or colonoscopy) within 4 months of initial outreach. The secondary outcomes were CRC screening completion within 6 months of outreach and the choice of colonoscopy as a screening test. In total, 438 patients were included in the intent-to-treat analysis, with a median age of 56 years (interquartile range, 52-63 years); 55.0% were women. At 4 months, the CRC screening completion rates were 14.4% (95% CI, 8.7%-20.1%) in the colonoscopy-only arm, 17.1% (95% CI, 11.0%-23.2%) in the sequential choice arm, and 19.9% (95% CI, 13.4%-26.4%) in the active choice arm. Neither choice arm achieved a screening rate statistically greater than that in the colonoscopy-alone arm. Among those who completed CRC screening at 4 months, 90.5% (95% CI, 78.0%-103.0%) chose colonoscopy in the colonoscopy-only arm, which was significantly higher than the 52.0% (95% CI, 32.4%-71.6%; P = .005) and 37.9% (95% CI, 20.2%-55.6%; P < .001) in the sequential choice and active choice arms, respectively. There was no significant increase in CRC screening when offering sequential or active choice, but there was a lower rate of colonoscopy in the choice arms than in the colonoscopy-only arm. Subtle changes in sequencing or defaults can alter patient decision making related to preventive health. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03246438.

Coordination Failure in Capacity-then-Price-Setting Games

In capacity-then-price-setting games, soft capacity constraints are planned sales amounts where producing above capacity is possible but more costly. While the subgame perfect equilibrium predicts equal prices, experimental evidence often reveals price discrepancies. This failure to coordinate on equal prices can imply losses, especially when serving demand is obligatory. We compare coordination failure with efficient rationing as well as with compulsory serving of demand, and additionally allow for simultaneous and sequential capacity choices. These treatments lead to a varying severity of the threat of losses. Our experimental results show that (possible) coordination failure affects behavior through two channels: via anticipating as well as via reacting to a loss. While capacities increase in anticipation of losses, prices increase when anticipating losses but decrease after experiencing losses. Coordination failures are more probable after subjects experienced a loss.

Dynamic Learning of Sequential Choice Bandit Problem under Marketing Fatigue

Motivated by the observation that overexposure to unwanted marketing activities leads to customer dissatisfaction, we consider a setting where a platform offers a sequence of messages to its users and is penalized when users abandon the platform due to marketing fatigue. We propose a novel sequential choice model to capture multiple interactions taking place between the platform and its user: Upon receiving a message, a user decides on one of the three actions: accept the message, skip and receive the next message, or abandon the platform. Based on user feedback, the platform dynamically learns users’ abandonment distribution and their valuations of messages to determine the length of the sequence and the order of the messages, while maximizing the cumulative payoff over a horizon of length T. We refer to this online learning task as the sequential choice bandit problem. For the offline combinatorial optimization problem, we show a polynomialtime algorithm. For the online problem, we propose an algorithm that balances exploration and exploitation, and characterize its regret bound. Lastly, we demonstrate how to extend the model with user contexts to incorporate personalization.

Abstract 2947: Discovering novel secondary drug combinations in sex hormone-related cancers using large-scale pharmacogenomics databases through computational modeling and molecular genetics

Abstract Response to drugs is heterogeneous - not all patients respond equally well to treatment and those who do often acquire resistance over the course of treatment. Therefore, predicting the efficacy of anti-cancer drugs and identifying secondary regimens to circumvent drug resistance is essential to prevent delay in the selection of more effective alternative strategies. Epidemiologic studies have demonstrated a tendency for common cancers to aggregate in families. For example, breast, prostate and ovarian cancers are sometimes grouped together owing to shared etiology, common genetic susceptibility regions and similar effects of sex hormones (estrogen or testosterone) exposure on their progression. Our objective is to use the vast array of human cancer cell lines in Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer (GDSC1000), the largest public database of drug sensitivity in human cancer cell lines - 265 anti-cancer drugs in 1074 cell lines (224,510 IC50 values), to apply a computational prediction algorithm that will identify successful secondary drug combinations in sex-hormone related cancers resistant to standard-of-care drugs. We used a greedy algorithm-based set-covering computational optimization method followed by a regularization technique to seek all secondary drugs that could kill maximum number of cancer cell lines resistant to the standard-of-care drug in a sequential manner ordered by the number of cell lines killed. A greedy algorithm constructs a solution to an optimization problem piece by piece through a sequence of choices to find the overall, or globally, optimal solution. For the purpose of this study, we used 136 potentially sex-hormone related cancer subtypes: breast (n=52), cervix (n=14), endometrium (n=11), ovary (n=45), prostate (n=8), testis (n=3), vulva (n=3). To validate our in silico prediction results, we treated the drug-resistant cancer cell lines with the predicted best secondary drugs, alone or as combination, and performed in vitro chemo-sensitivity assays to evaluate the effect of combination treatments using Chou-Talalay’s combination index (CI) method and the isobologram algorithm. Furthermore, we performed gene expression profiling (GEP) analysis using llumina’s next-generation sequencing system to identify differentially expressed (DE) genes and pathways underlining novel secondary therapies in chemotherapy-resistant cancers. Our preliminary data suggests promising early breakthrough and supports our hypothesis that the predicted drug combinations can circumvent drug resistance in human cancers - which we will be presenting at the annual meeting. This study is part of our unique research endeavor that aims to create a universally applicable software application for predicting novel secondary therapies in drug-resistant cancers for any cancer type and any test drug. Citation Format: Suman Mazumder, Li Chen, Ujjal K. Mukherjee, Amit K. Mitra. Discovering novel secondary drug combinations in sex hormone-related cancers using large-scale pharmacogenomics databases through computational modeling and molecular genetics [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 2947.

Cognitive aids and food choice: Real-time calorie counters reduce calories ordered and correct biases in calorie estimates

Studies of the effect of calorie information on food choices in food-away-from-home settings have identified minor to insignificant changes in calories ordered. An element of the choice process that may play an important role in influencing the total caloric content of a meal has received little attention: how individuals track the total number of calories selected when choosing multiple items. We study the effects of automating this potentially costly cognitive process using technology. We compare the number of calories ordered in a sequential food choice task in two conditions: one in which participants have access to calorie information for all options available and a second in which they are also exposed to automatically updating information about the number of calories they have ordered. Participants with access to calorie summation ordered significantly fewer calories than those without access to calorie summation. Participants without access to calorie summation significantly underestimated the number of calories they had ordered, while those in the calorie summation condition did not. The calorie summation seems to work in part through adjustment of sequential choices: calories ordered in the first choice category were very similar in the two conditions but diverged increasingly in later categories. Technologies that help individuals keep track of the nutritional consequences of cumulative choices may help promote healthier diets.

THE METHOD OF CONSTRUCTING RECOMMENDATIONS ONLINE ON THE TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF USER INTERESTS USING MULTILAYER GRAPH

The problem of the online construction of a rating list of objects in the recommender system is considered. A method for constructing recommendations online using the presentation of input data in the form of a multi-layer graph based on changes in user interests over time is proposed. The method is used for constructing recommendations in a situation with implicit feedback from the user. Input data are represented by a sequence of user choice records with a time stamp for each choice. The method includes the phases of pre-filtering of data and building recommendations by collaborative filtering of selected data. At pre-filtering of the input data, the subset of data is split into a sequence of fixed-length non-overlapping time intervals. Users with similar interests and records with objects of interest to these users are selected on a finite continuous subset of time intervals. In the second phase, the pre-filtered subset of data is used, which allows reducing the computational costs of generating recommendations. The method allows increasing the efficiency of building a rating list offered to the target user by taking into account changes in the interests of the user over time.

Cross-Category Retailing Management: Substitution and Complementarity

This paper studies pricing and assortment management for cross-category products, a common practice in brick-and-mortar retailing and e-tailing. We investigate the complementarity effects between the main products and the secondary products, in addition to the substitution effects for products in the same category. In this paper, we develop a multi-stage sequential choice model, under which a consumer first chooses a main product and then selects a secondary product. The new model can alleviate the restriction of the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property, and allows more flexible substitution patterns and also takes into account complementarity effects. We characterize the impact of the magnitude of complementarity effects on pricing and assortment management. For the problems that are hard to solve optimally, we propose simple heuristics and establish performance guarantee. In addition, we develop easy-to-implement estimation algorithms to calibrate the proposed sequential choice model by using sales data. We show that ignoring or mis-specifying complementarity effects may lead to substantial losses. The methodologies on modeling, optimization and estimation have potential to make impact on cross-category retailing management.

Understanding Consumer Dynamic Decision Making Under Competing Loyalty Programs

We develop an incentive-aligned experimental paradigm to study how consumer purchase dynamics are affected by the interplay between the loyalty programs and the pricing and promotional strategies of competing firms. In our experiment, subjects made sequential choices between two competing airlines in a stylized frequent traveler task for which an optimal dynamic decision policy can be numerically computed. We find that, on average, subjects are able to partially realize the long-term benefits from loyalty programs, though they are most sensitive to prices. We also find that the preferences and the levels of bounded rationality of our subjects depend on the nature of the competitive environment, the particular state of each decision scenario, and the type of optimal action. Accordingly, we use an approximate dynamic programming model to incorporate boundedly rational decision making. The model classifies subjects into five segments that exhibit variation in their performance and decision strategies. Importantly, we find that the overall market outcome and the performance of each firm are influenced by both the competitive environment and the assumption on the extent of consumer optimality.

Nintedanib plus docetaxel in lung adenocarcinoma patients (pts) following treatment with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs): Preliminary efficacy and safety results of the non-interventional study VARGADO.

9074 Background: The treatment landscape of non-targetable advanced NSCLC pts has changed considerably following the introduction of ICIs. Data are scarce regarding optimal treatment choice and treatment sequence for pts who progressed on ICI. Methods: VARGADO (NCT02392455) is a prospective non-interventional study investigating the efficacy and tolerability of the oral triple angiokinase inhibitor nintedanibplus docetaxel in pts with advanced lung adenocarcinoma after first-line chemotherapy. The present analysis focused on its clinical activity in pts who received nintedanib plus docetaxel in 3rd line following progression on ICIs in 2nd line. Results: 25 pts whose disease has progressed on previous ICI therapy received subsequently nintedanib plus docetaxel. Median age was 59 years (range: 45 – 76); 17/25 pts (68.0%) were men, 17/25 pts (68.0%) were ECOG PS0/1, and 24/25 pts (96.0%) were current or former smokers. 1st line chemotherapy included pemetrexed (18/25 pts, 72.0%), cisplatin (15/25 pts, 60.0%), carboplatin (12/25 pts, 48.0%), bevacizumab (8/25 pts, 32.0%), vinorelbine (4/25 pts, 16.0%), paclitaxel (2/25 pts, 8.0%), and docetaxel (1/25 pts, 4.0%). 2nd line treatment included nivolumab (18/25 pts, 72.0%) and pembrolizumab (6/25 pts, 24.0%). Under nintedanib and docetaxel, 9/20 pts (45.0%) showed a partial response, and 7/20 pts (35.0%) showed stable disease, resulting in a DCR of 80.0% (16/20 pts). Median PFS was 5.5 months (95%CI 2.5 – 8.2). Treatment emergent adverse events (TEAEs) grade ≥3, serious TEAEs, and TEAEs leading to discontinuation occurred in 15/25 pts (60.0%), 13/25 pts (52.0%), and 9/25 pts (36.0%), respectively. Conclusions: Nintedanib, in combination with docetaxel, showed clinically meaningful efficacy and an acceptable safety profile in advanced lung adenocarcinoma pts following chemotherapy and ICIs. These findings support the use of nintedanib plus docetaxel as a therapeutic option in lung adenocarcinoma pts progressing under ICI therapy. Clinical trial information: NCT02392455.

842 – Sequential Or Active Choice for Colorectal Cancer Screening Outreach: A Randomized Clinical Trial

842 – Sequential Or Active Choice for Colorectal Cancer Screening Outreach: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Simultaneous and sequential choice in a symmetric two-player game with canyon-shaped payoffs

Simultaneous and sequential choice in a symmetric two-player game with canyon-shaped payoffs

Simultaneous and Sequential Choice in a Symmetric Two‐Player Game with Canyon‐Shaped Payoffs

This paper investigates a symmetric two-player game with canyon-shaped payoffs, in which a player’s payoff function is smooth and concave above and below the diagonal, but not differentiable on the diagonal. We demonstrate that there exists a first-mover advantage when the two players move sequentially and a player’s preference to the opponent’s choice is monotonic and identical between a higher strategy player and a lower strategy player. We also show that our symmetric two-player game may yield the first-mover advantage outcome in an endogenous timing game with observable delay.

Sequential Choice Bandits: Learning with Marketing Fatigue

Motivated by the observation that overexposure to unwanted marketing activities can lead to customer dissatisfaction, we consider a setting where a platform offers a sequence of messages to its users and is penalized when users abandon the platform due to marketing fatigue. We propose a novel sequential choice model to capture multiple interactions taking place between the platform and its users: upon receiving a message, a user decides on whether to accept or reject the message. If she chooses to reject, she would then decide to either receive the next message in the sequence or abandon the platform. Based on user feedback, the platform dynamically learns users' abandonment distribution and the relevance of the recommended content. With a goal to maximize the cumulative payoff over a horizon of length T, the platform dynamically adjusts the sequence of messages and the order in which the messages are shown to a user. We refer to this online learning task as the sequential choice bandit (SC-Bandit) problem. For the offline combinatorial optimization problem, we show a polynomial-time algorithm. For the online problem, we consider two variants, depending on whether contexts are included, and propose algorithms that balance exploration and exploitation. Lastly, we evaluate the performance of our algorithms with both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Organised and non-organised after-school physical activity among children in Spain: the role of school-related variables

ABSTRACTResearch question: The objective is to study the correlates of organised and non-organised physical activity done after school hours by children, paying special attention to the effects of school-related variables.Research methods: We estimate a two-part model consisting of a sequential discrete choice model for participation and an interval probit model for the frequency of practice of physical activity, using a Spanish survey conducted in 2011 on 17,633 primary and secondary school pupils throughout the country, aged between 6 and 18 years.Results and findings: The estimates support the specification of different models for participation and frequency, distinguishing between organised and non-organised activities. School-related variables have a significant effect. The existence of a sports project increases the probability of practising both organised and non-organised sports and the frequency of organised activities; the organisation of sports activities by parents’ associations is positively associated with the probability of participation in sports, and the type of ownership (state, private, or private schools with public funding) affects both participation and frequency.Implications: There is evidence of some room for policies to favour children’s sports participation through schools, especially in the case of organised sports. Policy makers should take into account if it is a state school, a private school or a private school with public funding when designing policies to favour children’s physical activity. The development of a sports project by the school and the involvement of parents’ or sports associations appear as effective measures in terms of this objective.

Need-based prioritization of behavior.

When presented with a choice, organisms need to assimilate internal information with external stimuli and past experiences to rapidly and flexibly optimize decisions on a moment-to-moment basis. We hypothesized that increasing hunger intensity would curb expression of social behaviors such as mating or territorial aggression; we further hypothesized social interactions, reciprocally, would influence food consumption. We assessed competition between these motivations from both perspectives of mice within a resident-intruder paradigm. We found that as hunger state escalated, resident animal social interactions with either a female or male intruder decreased. Furthermore, intense hunger states, especially those evoked via AgRP photoactivation, fundamentally altered sequences of behavioral choice; effects dependent on food availibility. Additionally, female, but not male, intrusion attenuated resident mouse feeding. Lastly, we noted environmental context-dependent gating of food intake in intruding mice, suggesting a dynamic influence of context cues on the expression of feeding behaviors.

Encapsidation of viral RNA in Picornavirales: studies on cowpea mosaic virus demonstrate dependence on viral replication

To elucidate linkage between replication and encapsidation in Picornavirales, we have taken advantage of the bipartite nature of the plant-infecting member of the order, cowpea mosaic virus (CPMV), to decouple the two processes. RNA-free virus-like particles (eVLPs) can be generated by transiently co-expressing the RNA-2-encoded coat protein precursor (VP60) with the RNA-1-encoded 24K protease, in the absence of the replication machinery (Saunders et al., 2009). We have made use of the ability to produce assembled capsids of CPMV in the absence of replication to examine the putative linkage between RNA replication and packaging in the Picornavirales. We show here that the remarkable specificity of packaging observed in CPMV is due to a functional linking between the two processes of viral replication and encapsidation. We have created a series of mutant RNA-1 and RNA-2 molecules and have assessed the effect of the mutations on both the replication and packaging of the viral RNAs. We demonstrate that mutations that affect replication have a concomitant impact on encapsidation, and that RNA-1-mediated replication is required for encapsidation of both RNA-1 and RNA-2. This close coupling between replication and encapsidation provides a means for the specific packaging of viral RNAs. Moreover, we demonstrate that this feature of CPMV can be used to specifically encapsidate custom RNA by placing a sequence of choice between the RNA-2 sequences required for replication, which opens the door to novel research and therapeutic applications in the field of custom RNA packaging and delivery technologies.

Looking into the Brain of Buridan’s Ass

To survive, animals must maximize the minimum-take care of the least satisfied among their basic needs. In this issue of Neuron, a study by Juechems etal. (2019) illustrates that this core principle might shape the way medial prefrontal regions of the human brain drive and valuate sequential choices between different types of reward.

Commitment and welfare

The standard approach to welfare analysis under dynamically inconsistent preferences is to assume that the welfare of an individual is maximized if he can commit to his initial goal. We study a potential rationale for such welfare analysis. In some prominent, well-studied examples with intertemporal tradeoffs (like the choice between investing in a project now or later, doing an unpleasant task now or procrastinating it until later, and eating a cake), we find that the commitment allocation can multiself Pareto dominate the non-cooperative equilibrium allocation if the number of time-dated selves exceeds a low threshold. While a common concern with behavioral welfare analysis is that the later selves of an individual are unfairly hurt as a result of committing the individual to his initial goal, our findings indicate that this concern may be more relevant for settings where the number of sequential choices is very low.