Vote Choice Research Articles

The Voter Next Door: Stigma Effects on Advance Voting for Radical Right Parties

Despite the influence of stigmatization on vote choices, little attention has been given to the impact of social stigma on voters’ selection of voting procedures. To bridge this gap, our study focuses on Sweden, where the open-display ballot system at polling stations potentially compromises vote secrecy. Using survey data from the Swedish National Election Studies in 2014 and 2018, we examine the relationship between citizens’ voting procedure choices and their support for a highly stigmatized radical right party, the Sweden Democrats. Our findings reveal that voters of the Sweden Democrats are more inclined to vote in advance, particularly in districts with low general party support, indicating a high level of stigma. We argue that advance voting can be seen as a strategy to safeguard vote secrecy when voting for stigmatized parties within an institutional context featuring public displays of ballots. In addition, our research sheds light on the importance of electoral integrity in maintaining the confidentiality of voters’ choices.

Perceived technological threat and vote choice: evidence from 15 European democracies

The political consequences of workplace technological adoption have become a focus of recent party politics research. This article contributes to this literature by directly examining how the perceived threat of technological change relates to support for populist and non-populist left and right parties. It does so in two ways: first, by examining subjective rather than objective automation exposure, and second by distinguishing between personal and collective threat perceptions. Using vote choice data from 15 European countries, this article shows that subjective perception of personal automation exposure relates to increased support for left parties and decreased support for populist-right parties, while concern over collective risk relates to increased support for the populist right. These patterns suggest that fear of workplace technological change elicits both material and status concerns. The article concludes with counterfactual analyses demonstrating that both non-populist and populist left-wing parties could benefit by mobilizing voters who feel personally threatened by automation.

Marginalization by Proxy: Voter Evaluations at the Intersection of Candidate Identity and Community Ties

AbstractWe apply an intersectional framework to explore how connections to marginalized communities interact with candidate demographics to shape vote choice in U.S. politics. In an original experiment manipulating candidates’ race, gender, sexuality, and endorsements, we show that endorsements by organizations advocating for marginalized communities shape voter evaluations to the same, if not greater, degree as candidate demographics. Moreover, the effects are particularly pronounced for candidates receiving an endorsement from an LGBT advocacy organization. Attitudes toward marginalized communities are mapped onto candidates with ties to those communities, whether the candidate is a member or not; we call this process associational affect. Identity has a complex role in shaping vote choice, and, absent an investigation of power and interlocking social hierarchies, it alone is insufficient to explain vote choice.

Sexual orientation and vote choice: how race affects support of openly-gay candidates

ABSTRACT The increasing number of Black LGBTQ candidates and elected officials suggests that voters are being asked to evaluate their candidacies more often. These scenarios raise the question about how voters—particularly white voters—respond to these candidates, including in non-partisan races such as primaries. In this study, we test how sharing information about a candidate’s racial and sexual identity affects support from white and Black voters. Data come from an original online survey experiment conducted at 14 college campuses. We find that students use race and sexual orientation as vote-guiding heuristics, using stereotypes to fill in for knowledge gaps to try to make choices consistent with their partisan affiliations. We also find, contrary to concerns in some circles that openly-LGBTQ candidates are at an electoral disadvantage, that college students are more supportive of candidates that are identified as openly gay.

A Impact Analysis of Digitalized Voting System on Voting Behavior and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria

Election results in most African countries are hardly transmitted using digitalized devices. This has created room for suspicion and discrediting of electoral integrity in part of Africa. Citizens’ suspicion of the electoral process has not only made many African voters believe that votes hardly count, but it has significantly provoked tendencies of political apathy and indifference during elections in some African countries. Political apathy and indifference are partly responsible for the recruitment of mediocre persons to elective political offices, which in the long run, amount to bad governance. While the occupation of elective public offices by mediocre persons is antithetical to democratic consolidation, Africa’s electoral integrity largely depends on, and can only be sustained if election results are digitalized or transmitted in real time electronically. Although studies have extensively examined and identified factors such as competency, integrity, proven track records, vision, ideology, manifesto, and inducements, among others, as factors influencing voting choice or behavior, evidence is very little on how a digitalized transmission of election results, impacts on voting behavior and consolidates Africa’s democracy, using the elite theory. This article thus expanded knowledge on how a digitalized voting method influences voters’ decisions or choices using the qualitative method. Results indicated that a digitalized voting system could enhance vote count, public trust in election results, and the deepening of democracy in Africa. It concluded that a digitalized voting system has the potential to increase citizens trust in the electioneering process in Nigeria. This is a contribution to the general body of knowledge in e-voting and election administration. Keywords: Behavior, Consolidation Democracy, Digitalize, Voting System

Changing affective alignments between parties and voters

Populist parties are held to be the drivers of unprecedented emotionalisation in electoral politics. Advancing theories of realignment and detachment, this article studies the temporal development in the affective alignments between voters and parties. In particular, it analyses the relationship between social structure, voters’ affective orientations towards political parties, and vote choice over time by drawing on 625 representative population surveys from Germany over 44 years. The results show that voters’ affective orientations are indeed becoming more important to vote choice. However, this reflects a return to the close link that already existed at the heyday of the original cleavages rather than something novel. What seems to have changed is the degree to which affective orientations are rooted in social structure. This not only qualifies overly myopic interpretations of populist success but has more general implications for the contemporary linkages between parties and voters.

The «Situational Nationalism»: A New Age of Nation and State Building in Montenegro?

For a long time, the political development of Montenegro has been determined by the peculiarities of historical development and the legacy of the former Yugoslavia. The divisions between groups of citizens identifying themselves as Serbs or Montenegrins, as well as contradictions between the state and the church, have determined the configuration of political forces. The fear of national minorities of Serbian national policy and the skillful maneuvering of M. Djukanovic contributed to their support for his regime. However, the problems of economic development, Djukanovic’s miscalculations regarding the Orthodox Church, as well as the lack of serious progress on the way to the EU, led to an increase in opposition sentiment and the defeat of Djukanovic in 2023 presidential elections, and the DPS in the parliamentary ones. Representatives of the younger generation of politicians came to power in Montenegro, relying to a lesser extent on traditional ethno-confessional divisions for Montenegro and aimed at solving economic problems and accelerating the process of the country’s accession to the EU. The article concludes that the end of a long period of dominance of one political force does not mean the end of the process of democratization. The unresolved issues of national and state building, the influence of external centers, the lack of effective institutions for the achievement of compromise and the protection of the interests of minorities make political life unstable and complicate the adoption of effective political decisions. Despite the victory of a new generation of politicians in the last national elections, the country’s traditional divisions still determine the choice of many voters and may again become relevant under the influence of market circumstances.

Candidate Ideology and Vote Choice in the 2020 US Presidential Election

A prominent literature argues that moderate candidates perform better in general elections, but a competing literature that emphasizes partisan loyalties contests this. The 2020 Democratic presidential primary represented an opportunity to speak to these debates due to high voter information about multiple moderate and extreme candidates running in the same election. We present results from two national surveys (total n = 102, 425) that asked how respondents would choose in an election between one of the Democratic candidates and Republican Donald Trump. Our evidence is consistent with moderates having an electoral advantage: more moderate Democratic candidates receive more support against Trump than do more extreme candidates. Providing information through plausible attacks did not change these results. Notably, Sanders had the highest support after the moderates, but this was due to an implausibly large increase in intended turnout among young voters. Inconsistent with theories emphasizing the strength of partisan loyalties, Republican voters explain much of this effect.

Voter habituation and opinion activation in misreporting voting behavior in the 2020 presidential election

ABSTRACT Pre-election surveys are commonly used to predict turnout and vote choice, but anticipating who votes is challenging. Often survey respondents do not truthfully report their behavior and specifically overreport socially desirable actions like voting. In this study, we analyze factors influencing misreporting voting and vote method in a pre-election web survey of registered voters in the 2020 presidential election. More specifically, we test how voter habits (administrative data from the Florida voter file) and contextual factors (elite messaging, COVID-19 infection rates, and competitiveness) have impacted the likelihood of misreporting voting and vote method in the 2020 presidential election. We find that voter habits regarding voting and vote method significantly reduce the likelihood of misreporting such behaviors. Finally, in speaking to opinion activation, we demonstrate with our Florida survey and the 2020 Cooperative Election Study, that Trump supporters were significantly and substantially, more inclined to disclaim voting by mail when in fact they did.

Media Exposure and Vote Choice in India, 1996–2019

This article examines the relationship between media consumption and voting choices in India in the context of increasing exposure to media, both traditional and new. Using media exposure-related data from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies’ (CSDS) national election surveys since 1996, it makes a few key assertions. Historically, there has been a positive relationship between traditional news media exposure and voting for the BJP, i.e., the greater the voters’ TV and newspaper consumption, the higher their support for the BJP. With respect to the Congress party, the tendency has generally been the opposite. This pattern now extends to social media exposure as well. However, this impact of media exposure on voting preferences that’s visible at the broad level weakens considerably when slicing the data further by socio-demographic factors. It has been found that the trend of the BJP’s vote share rising with increasing exposure to media is not consistent across the categories of age, education, and caste during many elections. If there is one election, however, that bucked this trend, it was the 2014 Lok Sabha election. The article argues that the BJP was successful in recognizing this and capitalized on it through an extensive media and communications campaign in 2014.

Peran Badan Kesatuan Bangsa Dan Politik Dalam Meningkatkan Partisipasi Politik Pemilih Perempuan Melalui Pendidikan Politik Di Kabupaten Sukoharjo

This research aims to analyze the role of Bakesbangpol in increasing the political participation of female voters and determine the factors that influence the political participation of female voters in Sukoharjo Regency. This research uses a qualitative approach. Data sources in the research include informants, namely heads of departments and staff members of domestic politics and community organizations as well as female voters participating in political education programs, events implementing political education programs at the Graha Satya Praja pavilion, as well as the Sukoharjo Regency Bakesbangpol strategic plan document for 2021-2026. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling. The data collection techniques used were observation, direct in-depth interviews, and document analysis. The validity test technique uses triangulation of sources and methods. The data analysis technique used is an interactive analysis model which consists of four components including data collection, data reduction, data presentation and drawing conclusions. The research results are as follows. 1) Bakesbangpol Sukoharjo Regency has carried out its role as a facilitator by providing facilities and infrastructure, providing political education assistance, and having a focus on discussions related to political participation. Political education is carried out in the form of political socialization. 2) factors that influence the political participation of female voters in Sukoharjo Regency, namely a) political knowledge, female voters who have political knowledge will have the awareness to participate in political activities. b) family, family members, especially the husband, are factors that can influence a wife's choice. c) political stimulation, political education organized by Bakesbangpol is able to increase the knowledge of female voters and social media is able to influence the choices of female voters. d) work that is formed because of similarities is able to encourage individuals to adapt to behavior in the group.

Geographic Distribution of Voter Turnout, Ethnic Turnout and Vote Choices in Johor State Election

Geographic Distribution of Voter Turnout, Ethnic Turnout and Vote Choices in Johor State Election

Public mass shootings cause large surges in Americans' engagement with gun policy.

As public mass shootings continue to plague the United States, a growing scholarly literature seeks to understand the political effects of these tragic events. This literature, however, focuses on public opinion or turnout and vote choice, leaving open to question whether or not public mass shootings affect a range of other important actions citizens may take to engage with gun policy. Leveraging the as-good-as random timing of high-publicity public mass shootings over the past decade and an immense array of publicly available and proprietary data, we demonstrate that these events consistently cause surges in public engagement with gun policy-including internet searches, streaming documentaries, discussion on social media, signing petitions, and donating to political action committees. Importantly, we document the behaviors where shootings induce polarizing upswings in engagement and those where upswings skew toward gun control. Finally, we demonstrate that low-publicity shootings largely exert little-to-no effect on our outcomes.

Electoral Messiah or Party Label? Quantifying and Investigating Leader-Party Relationships in German Federal Elections 1998–2021

While the personalization of politics thesis has received support when exploring the supply side of politics and the media's coverage of elections and campaigns, the unmediated impact of leaders on vote choice (demand-side behavioral personalization) is debated. Most scholars agree that leaders can and do influence the vote, but the extent, circumstances, and pathways for this to occur, notably distinct from voter assessments of the party, remains contested. Using data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) and the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), we explore demand-side behavioral personalization in German Federal elections between 1998–2021, with a particular focus on the 2021 contest, where leadership was arguably an especially salient feature of the campaign. We offer a quantification of the phenomenon – first in the form of a vote-leader/party favorite alignment index and second by separating the impact of leader and party popularity on the vote in the 2021 contest, including provision for temporal and reciprocal dynamics. In doing so, we comprehensively examine leader-inclined voting while testing whether the 2021 contest represented a “Crossroads” contest on this dimension. Our results show leaders directly influenced vote choice in 2021, support for leader-inclined voting. Nevertheless, we find little evidence that 2021 marked a “Crossroads,” with few voters aligning their vote solely with their favorite leader, a pattern detected in all German elections between 1998 and 2021. Conspicuously, substantially more voters report aligning their vote with their favorite party. Further, our analysis illustrates that the association between leader popularity and the vote mostly trails the impact of party popularity’s connection with the vote. These results align more with the leaders minimalist school of demand-side behavioral personalization.

Domestic terrorism, incumbency, and legislative vote shares

A small number of studies have examined the effect terrorism has on political ideology and vote choice cross-nationally. However, scholars yet to understand how terrorist attack type influences vote choice based on the political ideology of incumbent governments. Thus, we examine the effect domestic and transnational terrorist attacks have on vote choice in legislative elections while accounting for the ideology of the incumbent government. In examining 56 democracies from 1975 – 2014 from various regions and levels of development, we find that domestic attacks, and not transnational, significantly effect both right and left party votes shares when the incumbent party in government is of a similar ideology. We attribute these results to the perception of instability that accompanies domestic attacks and the effects it has on voters’ evaluations of political parties. These findings have important implications for understanding how terrorism influences electoral behavior.

The Democratic Majority and the 2016 American Presidential Election: Feminist Political Behavior Across Multiple Axes of Identity

Scholarship on women voters using an intersectional lens has shown feminists and women of color within the Democratic Party to be a powerful force in electoral politics—specifically, Black and Latina women—are the most reliable voters. Combined, they represent the majority of women voters in the Democratic Party, and they have shown themselves to be a sizeable voting bloc in the last two American presidential election cycles. Using data from the 2016 American National Election Studies (ANES), we demonstrate important differences in support for the Democratic candidate (Hillary Clinton) between feminists and women of color—Black and Latina—underscoring the need to study gender, race, and ethnicity simultaneously (versus independently) when they are co-constitutive identity categories. By examining women and the groups the Clinton campaign appealed most to—feminists, Black, and Latina women—we add to the scholarship in political science that followed this unique election and demonstrate the importance of feminist identity for vote choice and various modes of political behavior for women voters. Knowing and understanding how women respond through affect and how this affect can result in political behaviors will help determine what it takes for future historic first candidates to emerge successful.

Los nadies y las nadies: The Effect of Peacebuilding on Political Behavior in Colombia

ABSTRACTHow do peacebuilding institutions affect political behavior? This article studies the historic victory of the Colombian left in the 2022 presidential elections in light of the implementation of local peacebuilding programs through the 2016 Peace Accords. Using a quasi-experimental design, we show that the Development Plans with a Territorial Focus (PDET), a central component of the 2016 Peace Accords between the government and the FARC, increased the vote share for the leftist coalition, Pacto Histórico, in the 2022 elections by increasing voter turnout in PDET regions. In a departure from existing literature, we find that the explanatory effect of violence on vote share is significantly reduced when we include an indicator for PDET implementation and additional covariates. While there is a substantial body of work examining the effects of conflict violence and the presence of armed actors on elections, there has been relatively little focus on how the peacebuilding has affected vote choice and political behavior. We see our project as a bridge to fill this gap in the literature.

Presidential Debates and Electoral Preferences in Weakly Institutionalised Democracies: Evidence From 32 Latin American Elections

Previous research has shown that presidential debates have “minimal effects” on aggregate electoral preferences because they mainly reinforce people's pre-existing political preferences. However, most of what we know about the behavioural effects of debates comes from research conducted in the United States and other institutionalised democracies. We re-evaluate the effects of debates on electoral preferences by focusing on Latin American elections. Given higher levels of electoral volatility, weaker partisan brands, lower partisanship, and more personalised voter linkages, we expect that debates play a significant role in shaping vote choice in Latin America. We test these expectations by conducting an analysis of presidential debates on aggregated vote preferences in thirty-two elections across fourteen Latin American countries from 2002 to 2019. Our results show that presidential debates shape electoral preferences in countries with weakly institutionalised party systems.

To vote or not to vote in the homeland elections? Insights into voting abstention in Italy's constituency abroad

AbstractSince its introduction in the early 2000s, legislation relating to the voting rights of Italians abroad has enabled millions of residents of voting age outside of Italy to engage in homeland elections and elect their own MPs. The inclusion of Italian citizens abroad in the Italian polity has nevertheless translated into a patchy electoral engagement. This article does not intend to provide an analysis of the voting choices in Italy's overseas constituency. Instead, it delves into external vote dynamics to provide insights into overseas Italians’ abstention in parliamentary elections and referenda. After summarising the history of the introduction of Italy's peculiar model of external voting, drawing on the results of an online survey of Italians abroad, the article examines the factors influencing turnout, with specific attention to the eligible voters’ personal characteristics. It also focuses on the attitude of Italians abroad towards possible reforms aiming at increasing electoral participation. It concludes that country of birth and Italian language skills are among the most relevant variables not only to assess what fosters or inhibits external voting, but also to gauge the opinion of voters residing outside Italy about proposals to reform the procedures regulating the exercise of suffrage from abroad.

A compromising mindset? How citizens evaluate the trade‐offs in coalition politics

AbstractCoalition building depends on citizens having a ‘compromising mindset’: they must accept that parties need to compromise in order to gain influence and that this entails deviating from the original policy positions. In this study, we show that European citizens understand that compromise is essential for democratic governance and that they, holding everything else constant, prefer political parties that express a willingness to compromise. This finding appears to be independent from specific forms of coalition politics and to be widespread across different levels of political interest, formal education and even ideological extremity. Our analysis compares observational data from the Austrian National Election Survey (AUTNES) 2020 and an original survey from Denmark in 2021. We also present results from a conjoint experiment fielded in Denmark, which evaluates the effect of willingness to compromise on vote choice. Our finding is good news for European democracies where coalition politics and thus compromise is a necessity for governance. Yet, for vote‐seeking politics, the situation is complex as citizens might sometimes punish parties for compromising, but sometimes also punish them for not compromising.