Changing affective alignments between parties and voters

Abstract

Populist parties are held to be the drivers of unprecedented emotionalisation in electoral politics. Advancing theories of realignment and detachment, this article studies the temporal development in the affective alignments between voters and parties. In particular, it analyses the relationship between social structure, voters’ affective orientations towards political parties, and vote choice over time by drawing on 625 representative population surveys from Germany over 44 years. The results show that voters’ affective orientations are indeed becoming more important to vote choice. However, this reflects a return to the close link that already existed at the heyday of the original cleavages rather than something novel. What seems to have changed is the degree to which affective orientations are rooted in social structure. This not only qualifies overly myopic interpretations of populist success but has more general implications for the contemporary linkages between parties and voters.